Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#197
Expected Predictive Rating+1.0#156
Pace74.5#55
Improvement-3.9#351

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#151
First Shot+1.6#122
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#250
Layup/Dunks+6.8#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#279
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#233
Freethrows-1.6#274
Improvement-1.5#302

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#240
First Shot-5.5#341
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#9
Layups/Dunks-10.2#363
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#271
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.0#3
Freethrows-2.3#319
Improvement-2.4#341
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.1% 18.5% 14.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 72.6% 80.0% 58.4%
.500 or above in Conference 81.1% 83.8% 75.8%
Conference Champion 22.4% 24.7% 18.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.6% 2.9%
First Four1.0% 0.8% 1.5%
First Round16.6% 18.2% 13.6%
Second Round0.9% 1.1% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Away) - 65.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 44 - 8
Quad 413 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 75   @ Colorado L 88-90 2OT 13%     0 - 1 +8.5 +3.7 +5.2
  Nov 14, 2024 123   South Dakota St. W 78-69 35%     1 - 1 +11.5 +5.4 +6.0
  Nov 18, 2024 77   @ Washington St. L 69-83 14%     1 - 2 -3.9 +0.9 -4.7
  Nov 20, 2024 176   @ California Baptist W 79-68 36%     2 - 2 +13.1 +2.2 +10.5
  Nov 23, 2024 337   Prairie View W 114-98 88%     3 - 2 +1.8 +13.9 -14.4
  Nov 29, 2024 24   @ Texas Tech L 64-89 5%     3 - 3 -8.1 -1.6 -6.5
  Dec 04, 2024 142   St. Thomas L 75-87 52%     3 - 4 -14.2 +3.8 -18.8
  Dec 07, 2024 130   @ North Dakota St. L 70-82 27%     3 - 5 -7.2 -10.9 +4.9
  Dec 16, 2024 271   Air Force W 81-76 76%     4 - 5 -3.8 +2.5 -6.4
  Dec 21, 2024 318   @ Denver W 79-75 66%    
  Jan 02, 2025 208   Weber St. W 77-73 63%    
  Jan 04, 2025 251   Idaho St. W 74-68 73%    
  Jan 09, 2025 141   @ Montana St. L 75-80 31%    
  Jan 11, 2025 215   @ Montana L 78-80 43%    
  Jan 16, 2025 260   Portland St. W 83-76 73%    
  Jan 18, 2025 335   Sacramento St. W 76-64 86%    
  Jan 23, 2025 279   @ Idaho W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 25, 2025 254   @ Eastern Washington W 81-80 52%    
  Feb 01, 2025 285   Northern Arizona W 82-74 77%    
  Feb 03, 2025 251   @ Idaho St. W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 06, 2025 215   Montana W 81-77 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 141   Montana St. W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 13, 2025 335   @ Sacramento St. W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 260   @ Portland St. W 80-79 53%    
  Feb 20, 2025 254   Eastern Washington W 84-77 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 279   Idaho W 80-72 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 285   @ Northern Arizona W 79-77 58%    
  Mar 03, 2025 208   @ Weber St. L 74-76 42%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.1 6.2 4.8 2.6 1.0 0.2 22.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.4 6.8 5.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.5 6.7 4.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 5.8 3.4 0.5 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.8 2.7 0.3 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.6 2.5 0.3 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.4 2.1 0.4 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.2 5.3 7.9 10.6 12.7 14.1 13.9 11.9 8.8 5.3 2.7 1.0 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 98.9% 2.6    2.5 0.1
15-3 91.3% 4.8    4.0 0.8 0.0
14-4 71.3% 6.2    4.1 1.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 42.8% 5.1    2.1 2.3 0.6 0.0
12-6 15.7% 2.2    0.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.4% 22.4 14.3 6.1 1.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 64.2% 64.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.0% 44.6% 44.6% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.7% 44.9% 44.9% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.5
15-3 5.3% 35.4% 35.4% 13.7 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.4
14-4 8.8% 30.0% 30.0% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.7 0.0 6.1
13-5 11.9% 25.1% 25.1% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.3 0.1 8.9
12-6 13.9% 20.0% 20.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 0.3 11.1
11-7 14.1% 14.2% 14.2% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 12.1
10-8 12.7% 11.4% 11.4% 15.4 0.1 0.8 0.6 11.3
9-9 10.6% 8.7% 8.7% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 9.7
8-10 7.9% 5.4% 5.4% 15.9 0.1 0.4 7.5
7-11 5.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.2 5.1
6-12 3.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 3.1
5-13 1.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.2 6.1 3.0 83.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.7 2.5 5.0 20.0 67.5 5.0