Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#151
Expected Predictive Rating+2.7#126
Pace72.2#74
Improvement-0.2#198

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#98
First Shot+4.8#62
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#303
Layup/Dunks+6.7#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#185
Freethrows-0.3#190
Improvement+0.6#151

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#230
First Shot-5.3#334
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#4
Layups/Dunks-5.7#351
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#311
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#35
Freethrows-1.7#299
Improvement-0.8#233
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.0% 31.2% 25.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 59.2% 66.1% 31.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round30.0% 31.2% 25.0%
Second Round1.5% 1.7% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Home) - 80.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 36 - 7
Quad 414 - 321 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 91   @ Colorado L 88-90 2OT 24%     0 - 1 +6.1 +3.5 +3.0
  Nov 14, 2024 111   South Dakota St. W 78-69 40%     1 - 1 +12.3 +4.8 +7.4
  Nov 18, 2024 107   @ Washington St. L 69-83 30%     1 - 2 -7.9 -2.6 -5.1
  Nov 20, 2024 158   @ California Baptist W 79-68 42%     2 - 2 +13.8 +4.5 +8.9
  Nov 23, 2024 356   Prairie View W 114-98 93%     3 - 2 -0.3 +16.5 -19.1
  Nov 29, 2024 10   @ Texas Tech L 64-89 4%     3 - 3 -4.0 -0.3 -3.7
  Dec 04, 2024 126   St. Thomas L 75-87 55%     3 - 4 -12.8 +2.3 -15.8
  Dec 07, 2024 136   @ North Dakota St. L 70-82 38%     3 - 5 -8.1 -12.6 +5.6
  Dec 16, 2024 294   Air Force W 81-76 84%     4 - 5 -4.9 +2.4 -7.3
  Dec 21, 2024 315   @ Denver W 82-75 76%     5 - 5 +0.4 +13.9 -12.9
  Jan 02, 2025 297   Weber St. W 89-72 84%     6 - 5 1 - 0 +6.9 +10.7 -3.7
  Jan 04, 2025 229   Idaho St. W 93-92 OT 74%     7 - 5 2 - 0 -5.2 +7.5 -12.8
  Jan 09, 2025 188   @ Montana St. W 83-82 49%     8 - 5 3 - 0 +2.0 +14.8 -12.8
  Jan 11, 2025 182   @ Montana W 81-57 47%     9 - 5 4 - 0 +25.4 +6.3 +19.0
  Jan 16, 2025 201   Portland St. W 72-69 70%     10 - 5 5 - 0 -1.7 +1.4 -3.0
  Jan 18, 2025 332   Sacramento St. W 68-64 90%     11 - 5 6 - 0 -9.3 -1.5 -7.3
  Jan 23, 2025 253   @ Idaho L 76-77 63%     11 - 6 6 - 1 -3.7 +4.4 -8.1
  Jan 25, 2025 265   @ Eastern Washington W 67-62 64%     12 - 6 7 - 1 +2.1 -4.1 +6.5
  Feb 01, 2025 264   Northern Arizona W 87-69 79%     13 - 6 8 - 1 +10.0 +10.9 -0.7
  Feb 03, 2025 229   @ Idaho St. W 86-72 57%     14 - 6 9 - 1 +12.9 +14.9 -1.5
  Feb 06, 2025 182   Montana L 78-86 66%     14 - 7 9 - 2 -11.7 +2.7 -14.7
  Feb 08, 2025 188   Montana St. W 73-66 68%     15 - 7 10 - 2 +2.9 +3.3 +0.0
  Feb 13, 2025 332   @ Sacramento St. W 77-61 80%     16 - 7 11 - 2 +7.8 +2.6 +5.3
  Feb 15, 2025 201   @ Portland St. L 71-82 51%     16 - 8 11 - 3 -10.6 -3.8 -6.2
  Feb 20, 2025 265   Eastern Washington W 95-76 79%     17 - 8 12 - 3 +11.0 +18.2 -7.1
  Feb 22, 2025 253   Idaho W 83-75 80%    
  Mar 01, 2025 264   @ Northern Arizona W 79-75 61%    
  Mar 03, 2025 297   @ Weber St. W 79-73 69%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.0 24.6 30.6 59.2 1st
2nd 2.5 15.5 19.1 3.7 40.8 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 2.5 19.5 43.7 34.3 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 89.3% 30.6    19.3 11.3
14-4 56.3% 24.6    8.3 16.3
13-5 20.3% 4.0    0.7 3.3
12-6 3.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 59.2% 59.2 28.3 31.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 34.3% 35.2% 35.2% 13.4 1.1 5.0 5.5 0.5 22.2
14-4 43.7% 28.7% 28.7% 14.1 0.1 1.8 7.1 3.5 0.1 31.2
13-5 19.5% 24.7% 24.7% 14.5 0.2 2.0 2.5 0.1 14.7
12-6 2.5% 20.6% 20.6% 14.9 0.1 0.4 0.1 2.0
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 30.0% 30.0% 0.0% 13.9 1.2 7.0 14.7 6.8 0.2 70.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.1% 100.0% 13.4 9.2 41.7 45.3 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.4%
Lose Out 0.8%