Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#173
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#151
Pace73.1#79
Improvement-1.1#305

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#162
First Shot+3.5#79
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#322
Layup/Dunks+3.7#64
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#144
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#58
Freethrows-5.0#345
Improvement-0.4#243

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#222
First Shot+0.6#164
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#300
Layups/Dunks-4.4#315
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#209
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.2#13
Freethrows-3.2#330
Improvement-0.7#278
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.0% 22.2% 15.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 69.7% 82.4% 61.3%
.500 or above in Conference 78.3% 84.6% 74.2%
Conference Champion 24.5% 30.7% 20.4%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 1.9% 4.3%
First Four1.1% 0.7% 1.4%
First Round17.5% 21.9% 14.6%
Second Round1.4% 2.1% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 39.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 54 - 8
Quad 413 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 70   @ Colorado L 88-90 2OT 14%     0 - 1 +9.0 +3.9 +5.5
  Nov 14, 2024 183   South Dakota St. W 78-69 51%     1 - 1 +8.0 +3.4 +4.5
  Nov 18, 2024 80   @ Washington St. L 69-83 15%     1 - 2 -3.9 +0.3 -4.0
  Nov 20, 2024 181   @ California Baptist L 71-74 40%    
  Nov 23, 2024 348   Prairie View W 87-72 92%    
  Nov 29, 2024 14   @ Texas Tech L 65-84 4%    
  Dec 04, 2024 163   St. Thomas W 76-73 60%    
  Dec 07, 2024 242   @ North Dakota St. W 75-74 51%    
  Dec 16, 2024 292   Air Force W 74-65 79%    
  Dec 21, 2024 295   @ Denver W 80-77 62%    
  Jan 02, 2025 225   Weber St. W 75-70 69%    
  Jan 04, 2025 236   Idaho St. W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 09, 2025 155   @ Montana St. L 75-79 37%    
  Jan 11, 2025 211   @ Montana L 74-75 45%    
  Jan 16, 2025 218   Portland St. W 85-80 68%    
  Jan 18, 2025 307   Sacramento St. W 74-64 81%    
  Jan 23, 2025 287   @ Idaho W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 25, 2025 245   @ Eastern Washington W 82-81 52%    
  Feb 01, 2025 277   Northern Arizona W 77-69 76%    
  Feb 03, 2025 236   @ Idaho St. L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 06, 2025 211   Montana W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 155   Montana St. W 78-76 57%    
  Feb 13, 2025 307   @ Sacramento St. W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 15, 2025 218   @ Portland St. L 82-83 47%    
  Feb 20, 2025 245   Eastern Washington W 84-78 71%    
  Feb 22, 2025 287   Idaho W 80-71 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 277   @ Northern Arizona W 74-72 57%    
  Mar 03, 2025 225   @ Weber St. L 72-73 48%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.6 6.3 5.8 3.7 1.6 0.4 24.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.8 5.5 2.6 0.6 0.1 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.8 3.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 2.2 5.3 3.0 0.6 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.5 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.6 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.8 5.7 7.7 9.8 11.6 12.3 12.0 11.2 9.1 6.4 3.8 1.6 0.4 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.0
16-2 98.1% 3.7    3.5 0.2 0.0
15-3 89.9% 5.8    4.8 0.9 0.0
14-4 69.8% 6.3    4.1 2.0 0.2 0.0
13-5 41.1% 4.6    1.9 2.1 0.6 0.0
12-6 14.2% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.5% 24.5 16.6 6.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 70.1% 69.4% 0.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.1%
17-1 1.6% 51.5% 51.5% 12.5 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8
16-2 3.8% 46.5% 46.5% 13.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.0
15-3 6.4% 38.8% 38.8% 13.4 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.9
14-4 9.1% 32.4% 32.4% 13.9 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.5 0.0 6.1
13-5 11.2% 26.1% 26.1% 14.3 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.0 0.1 8.3
12-6 12.0% 19.1% 19.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.3 9.7
11-7 12.3% 14.2% 14.2% 15.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 10.5
10-8 11.6% 11.3% 11.3% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 10.3
9-9 9.8% 8.0% 8.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 9.1
8-10 7.7% 4.3% 4.3% 15.8 0.1 0.3 7.4
7-11 5.7% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.6
6-12 3.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 3.7
5-13 2.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.3
4-14 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.8 5.3 4.8 2.6 82.0 0.0%