Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#270
Expected Predictive Rating-11.7#333
Pace59.1#359
Improvement+0.5#156

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#265
First Shot-0.8#195
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#309
Layup/Dunks-0.3#191
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#238
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#131
Freethrows-0.8#232
Improvement-0.7#234

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#256
First Shot-1.8#235
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#251
Layups/Dunks-1.0#208
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#117
Freethrows-0.7#237
Improvement+1.2#96
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.7
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.6% 1.7% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 48.6% 31.3% 54.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Home) - 24.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 71 - 12
Quad 32 - 93 - 21
Quad 44 - 57 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 181   North Alabama L 57-73 43%     0 - 1 -20.0 -11.5 -10.4
  Nov 07, 2024 155   Jacksonville St. W 73-67 39%     1 - 1 +3.1 +3.4 +0.3
  Nov 11, 2024 336   LIU Brooklyn L 54-63 78%     1 - 2 -23.1 -13.2 -11.5
  Nov 15, 2024 133   Belmont L 71-79 33%     1 - 3 -9.4 +1.3 -11.4
  Nov 21, 2024 129   @ California L 69-78 16%     1 - 4 -4.0 +0.2 -4.8
  Nov 24, 2024 359   Mercyhurst W 82-48 86%     2 - 4 +16.8 +17.7 +5.8
  Nov 27, 2024 335   Sacramento St. L 61-63 77%     2 - 5 -15.7 -10.7 -5.1
  Nov 30, 2024 168   @ Wright St. L 57-70 21%     2 - 6 -10.5 -11.1 -1.1
  Dec 02, 2024 210   @ Miami (OH) L 60-73 27%     2 - 7 -12.5 -4.0 -10.2
  Dec 07, 2024 306   Stony Brook W 69-61 58%     3 - 7 +0.1 -8.3 +8.4
  Dec 16, 2024 183   @ Northern Colorado L 76-81 23%     3 - 8 -3.1 +0.7 -3.7
  Dec 21, 2024 58   @ Boise St. L 59-77 5%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -5.6 -2.4 -4.7
  Dec 31, 2024 106   UNLV L 61-68 25%    
  Jan 04, 2025 161   Wyoming L 63-66 40%    
  Jan 08, 2025 39   @ San Diego St. L 53-74 3%    
  Jan 11, 2025 159   San Jose St. L 65-68 40%    
  Jan 14, 2025 59   @ Nevada L 55-73 5%    
  Jan 17, 2025 273   @ Fresno St. L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 22, 2025 39   San Diego St. L 56-71 9%    
  Jan 25, 2025 52   Utah St. L 62-75 12%    
  Jan 28, 2025 98   @ Colorado St. L 58-72 10%    
  Feb 01, 2025 159   @ San Jose St. L 62-71 21%    
  Feb 04, 2025 59   Nevada L 58-70 13%    
  Feb 08, 2025 64   New Mexico L 67-78 15%    
  Feb 11, 2025 106   @ UNLV L 58-71 11%    
  Feb 18, 2025 161   @ Wyoming L 60-69 22%    
  Feb 22, 2025 273   Fresno St. W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 25, 2025 98   Colorado St. L 61-69 24%    
  Mar 01, 2025 64   @ New Mexico L 64-81 6%    
  Mar 04, 2025 58   Boise St. L 60-72 14%    
  Mar 08, 2025 52   @ Utah St. L 59-78 5%    
Projected Record 7 - 24 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 2.7 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.2 6.9 4.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 18.5 9th
10th 0.4 4.4 11.4 11.7 5.6 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 35.1 10th
11th 2.7 9.0 12.0 8.1 2.5 0.4 0.0 34.8 11th
Total 2.7 9.5 16.5 20.4 18.6 14.1 9.0 5.1 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.1% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1
10-10 0.5% 0.5
9-11 1.1% 1.1
8-12 2.5% 2.5
7-13 5.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.0
6-14 9.0% 9.0
5-15 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.1
4-16 18.6% 18.6
3-17 20.4% 20.4
2-18 16.5% 16.5
1-19 9.5% 9.5
0-20 2.7% 2.7
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.5%