Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#177
Expected Predictive Rating-2.5#216
Pace69.7#153
Improvement-1.9#264

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#115
First Shot+6.9#30
After Offensive Rebound-4.6#359
Layup/Dunks+1.9#113
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#43
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#66
Freethrows-1.9#293
Improvement-1.0#246

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#268
First Shot-2.9#264
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#212
Layups/Dunks-3.3#302
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#149
Freethrows+1.6#71
Improvement-0.9#227
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.2% 13.1% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 68.2% 79.9% 52.7%
.500 or above in Conference 79.8% 89.0% 67.7%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.8% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.7%
First Round11.0% 13.0% 8.4%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Home) - 56.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 85 - 11
Quad 412 - 416 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 15   @ Kentucky L 62-103 4%     0 - 1 -21.7 -9.5 -9.8
  Nov 09, 2024 151   @ Miami (OH) W 81-68 34%     1 - 1 +16.5 +7.9 +8.4
  Nov 13, 2024 196   @ Toledo L 77-86 42%     1 - 2 -7.8 -1.2 -6.4
  Nov 21, 2024 127   Princeton W 80-62 38%     2 - 2 +20.3 +11.7 +9.5
  Nov 22, 2024 74   Bradley L 74-77 21%     2 - 3 +4.6 +15.3 -11.1
  Nov 24, 2024 154   South Florida L 72-73 44%     2 - 4 -0.4 +0.0 -0.4
  Nov 30, 2024 276   Air Force W 70-57 79%     3 - 4 +3.8 +1.7 +3.7
  Dec 05, 2024 182   @ Oakland L 64-66 40%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -0.2 +1.0 -1.5
  Dec 07, 2024 331   @ Detroit Mercy W 80-72 75%     4 - 5 1 - 1 +0.1 +8.4 -7.9
  Dec 11, 2024 178   Marshall W 88-79 61%     5 - 5 +5.4 +7.6 -2.9
  Dec 18, 2024 208   Youngstown St. L 70-80 66%     5 - 6 1 - 2 -15.1 -1.7 -13.4
  Dec 21, 2024 314   @ Eastern Michigan L 82-86 69%     5 - 7 -9.9 +6.7 -16.7
  Dec 29, 2024 171   @ Cleveland St. L 64-78 38%     5 - 8 1 - 3 -11.7 -2.1 -10.8
  Jan 02, 2025 332   Green Bay W 74-51 89%     6 - 8 2 - 3 +9.0 -6.6 +15.8
  Jan 09, 2025 182   Oakland W 66-62 61%     7 - 8 3 - 3 +0.4 -1.4 +2.2
  Jan 12, 2025 216   @ Robert Morris L 72-75 48%     7 - 9 3 - 4 -3.4 -1.8 -1.5
  Jan 15, 2025 145   Purdue Fort Wayne L 113-120 2OT 52%     7 - 10 3 - 5 -8.4 +10.5 -17.3
  Jan 18, 2025 234   @ Northern Kentucky W 78-70 53%     8 - 10 4 - 5 +6.5 +7.3 -0.7
  Jan 22, 2025 161   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79-77 57%    
  Jan 25, 2025 331   Detroit Mercy W 80-67 88%    
  Jan 30, 2025 208   @ Youngstown St. L 73-74 45%    
  Feb 02, 2025 216   Robert Morris W 78-73 69%    
  Feb 05, 2025 145   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 79-84 31%    
  Feb 08, 2025 327   IU Indianapolis W 81-69 87%    
  Feb 14, 2025 161   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 76-80 34%    
  Feb 16, 2025 332   @ Green Bay W 82-74 76%    
  Feb 21, 2025 234   Northern Kentucky W 73-67 72%    
  Feb 27, 2025 171   Cleveland St. W 75-73 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 327   @ IU Indianapolis W 79-72 71%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.1 0.5 1.8 1st
2nd 0.2 2.9 2.5 0.2 5.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.0 6.6 0.9 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 9.2 2.7 0.0 14.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 8.8 6.6 0.4 17.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 7.8 9.2 1.2 19.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 6.8 8.4 2.2 0.0 19.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.4 4.1 1.4 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.0 5.3 12.4 19.1 22.5 20.3 12.8 4.5 0.7 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 66.2% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1
14-6 23.8% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.7% 41.2% 41.2% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-6 4.5% 23.8% 23.8% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 3.4
13-7 12.8% 18.8% 18.8% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.7 0.0 10.4
12-8 20.3% 13.8% 13.8% 14.5 0.1 1.2 1.4 0.1 17.5
11-9 22.5% 9.9% 9.9% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.2 20.3
10-10 19.1% 6.9% 6.9% 15.2 0.1 0.9 0.3 17.8
9-11 12.4% 6.6% 6.6% 15.7 0.2 0.6 11.6
8-12 5.3% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.2 5.1
7-13 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 2.0
6-14 0.4% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.5 5.0 1.4 88.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.5 3.6 46.4 46.4 3.6