Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.5#328
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#214
Pace67.6#234
Improvement+1.8#33

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#317
First Shot-9.9#360
After Offensive Rebound+4.9#15
Layup/Dunks-7.6#354
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#282
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#193
Freethrows-0.2#198
Improvement-0.2#214

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#318
First Shot-4.6#309
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#176
Layups/Dunks-7.2#350
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#193
Freethrows-0.8#233
Improvement+2.1#10
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.8% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 4.6% 17.7% 4.3%
.500 or above in Conference 13.2% 26.5% 12.9%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.3% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 21.9% 10.8% 22.2%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round0.6% 1.5% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Away) - 2.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 92 - 13
Quad 48 - 99 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 104   @ Loyola Chicago L 65-87 7%     0 - 1 -14.6 -4.5 -9.7
  Nov 10, 2024 324   Niagara W 84-78 OT 60%     1 - 1 -6.0 -1.7 -4.8
  Nov 16, 2024 137   Toledo L 67-82 22%     1 - 2 -16.3 -11.4 -4.3
  Nov 20, 2024 280   @ Ball St. W 70-59 27%     2 - 2 +7.9 -1.0 +9.4
  Nov 23, 2024 75   @ Wake Forest L 62-82 3%    
  Nov 26, 2024 185   Tulsa L 71-79 22%    
  Nov 27, 2024 113   Rhode Island L 70-83 11%    
  Nov 30, 2024 300   @ Eastern Michigan L 65-70 32%    
  Dec 05, 2024 139   Purdue Fort Wayne L 72-80 23%    
  Dec 07, 2024 184   Wright St. L 75-80 32%    
  Dec 14, 2024 131   @ Davidson L 62-76 10%    
  Dec 18, 2024 203   @ Northern Kentucky L 63-73 17%    
  Dec 22, 2024 37   @ Wisconsin L 60-84 2%    
  Dec 29, 2024 192   @ Youngstown St. L 66-77 16%    
  Jan 02, 2025 288   Robert Morris L 68-69 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 212   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 73-77 36%    
  Jan 09, 2025 361   @ IU Indianapolis W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 139   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 69-83 11%    
  Jan 18, 2025 178   Oakland L 65-71 31%    
  Jan 22, 2025 222   @ Cleveland St. L 64-74 20%    
  Jan 25, 2025 184   @ Wright St. L 72-83 16%    
  Jan 30, 2025 203   Northern Kentucky L 66-70 35%    
  Feb 01, 2025 251   Green Bay L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 05, 2025 288   @ Robert Morris L 66-72 29%    
  Feb 08, 2025 192   Youngstown St. L 69-74 33%    
  Feb 16, 2025 178   @ Oakland L 62-74 16%    
  Feb 19, 2025 361   IU Indianapolis W 74-66 76%    
  Feb 21, 2025 222   Cleveland St. L 67-71 38%    
  Feb 27, 2025 251   @ Green Bay L 70-78 25%    
  Mar 01, 2025 212   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-80 19%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 2.2 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.4 1.0 0.1 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.4 4.5 1.5 0.1 12.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 4.2 6.5 5.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 19.2 9th
10th 0.2 1.6 4.9 7.9 8.3 5.1 1.6 0.2 29.6 10th
11th 0.6 2.3 3.9 4.1 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 14.5 11th
Total 0.6 2.4 5.5 9.1 11.6 13.7 13.8 12.4 10.1 7.8 5.4 3.4 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 93.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 73.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 49.2% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 22.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 4.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 24.4% 24.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 16.9% 16.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.6% 11.8% 11.8% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-7 1.2% 4.5% 4.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
12-8 2.1% 5.0% 5.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 2.0
11-9 3.4% 4.1% 4.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.3
10-10 5.4% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.4
9-11 7.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.7
8-12 10.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.0
7-13 12.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.3
6-14 13.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.7
5-15 13.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.7
4-16 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.6
3-17 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.1
2-18 5.5% 5.5
1-19 2.4% 2.4
0-20 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%