Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.6#331
Expected Predictive Rating-7.5#286
Pace67.6#213
Improvement-3.2#322

Offense
Total Offense-6.6#341
First Shot-7.3#346
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#139
Layup/Dunks-7.3#357
2 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#4
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#337
Freethrows-1.6#282
Improvement-1.9#289

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#289
First Shot-3.0#267
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#273
Layups/Dunks-1.2#215
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#28
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#307
Freethrows-0.6#231
Improvement-1.3#255
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.5% 2.3% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 19.2% 8.2% 20.6%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Away) - 11.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 92 - 14
Quad 47 - 98 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 136   @ Loyola Chicago L 65-87 9%     0 - 1 -17.6 -6.7 -10.5
  Nov 10, 2024 310   Niagara W 84-78 OT 53%     1 - 1 -5.3 -1.0 -4.7
  Nov 16, 2024 194   Toledo L 67-82 27%     1 - 2 -19.3 -14.0 -4.8
  Nov 20, 2024 250   @ Ball St. W 70-59 21%     2 - 2 +8.7 -2.3 +11.5
  Nov 23, 2024 59   @ Wake Forest L 57-67 3%     2 - 3 +2.1 -5.2 +6.9
  Nov 26, 2024 251   Tulsa L 44-63 29%     2 - 4 -24.0 -25.8 +0.1
  Nov 27, 2024 109   Rhode Island L 75-81 10%     2 - 5 -2.6 +4.1 -6.7
  Nov 30, 2024 313   @ Eastern Michigan W 98-89 OT 32%     3 - 5 +3.1 +9.6 -7.6
  Dec 05, 2024 145   Purdue Fort Wayne W 79-78 19%     4 - 5 1 - 0 -0.4 +4.1 -4.5
  Dec 07, 2024 177   Wright St. L 72-80 25%     4 - 6 1 - 1 -11.5 -1.9 -10.1
  Dec 14, 2024 121   @ Davidson L 51-86 8%     4 - 7 -29.6 -19.7 -11.4
  Dec 18, 2024 235   @ Northern Kentucky L 60-73 19%     4 - 8 1 - 2 -14.4 -8.2 -6.8
  Dec 22, 2024 18   @ Wisconsin L 53-76 1%     4 - 9 -4.4 -10.2 +4.7
  Dec 29, 2024 208   @ Youngstown St. L 64-73 15%     4 - 10 1 - 3 -8.6 -11.0 +3.2
  Jan 02, 2025 216   Robert Morris W 78-76 OT 32%     5 - 10 2 - 3 -3.8 +0.5 -4.4
  Jan 04, 2025 161   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 56-64 22%     5 - 11 2 - 4 -10.5 -17.6 +7.0
  Jan 09, 2025 326   @ IU Indianapolis L 61-95 38%     5 - 12 2 - 5 -41.5 -14.1 -29.6
  Jan 11, 2025 145   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 67-90 9%     5 - 13 2 - 6 -18.9 -2.9 -17.3
  Jan 18, 2025 178   Oakland L 59-65 25%     5 - 14 2 - 7 -9.6 -5.9 -4.7
  Jan 22, 2025 173   @ Cleveland St. L 63-76 12%    
  Jan 25, 2025 177   @ Wright St. L 67-80 12%    
  Jan 30, 2025 235   Northern Kentucky L 63-67 37%    
  Feb 01, 2025 333   Green Bay W 74-71 63%    
  Feb 05, 2025 216   @ Robert Morris L 66-76 16%    
  Feb 08, 2025 208   Youngstown St. L 66-72 31%    
  Feb 16, 2025 178   @ Oakland L 59-72 11%    
  Feb 19, 2025 326   IU Indianapolis W 72-70 59%    
  Feb 21, 2025 173   Cleveland St. L 66-73 25%    
  Feb 27, 2025 333   @ Green Bay L 72-74 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 161   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 65-79 10%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 3.3 2.6 0.9 0.1 8.1 8th
9th 0.5 6.6 16.5 17.6 8.7 2.1 0.2 52.1 9th
10th 0.3 5.6 12.8 8.1 2.2 0.4 29.3 10th
11th 2.2 4.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.0 11th
Total 2.5 10.8 21.2 24.9 21.0 12.3 5.1 1.7 0.4 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.1% 0.1
10-10 0.4% 5.0% 5.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
9-11 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.7
8-12 5.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.0
7-13 12.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 12.3
6-14 21.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.0
5-15 24.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 24.9
4-16 21.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.2
3-17 10.8% 10.8
2-18 2.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.5
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.1%