Preseason Rankings
Toledo
Mid-American
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#168
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.1#79
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#104
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#265
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.6% 15.9% 9.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.6 14.2
.500 or above 63.4% 80.4% 56.0%
.500 or above in Conference 75.7% 84.4% 71.8%
Conference Champion 13.6% 19.3% 11.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 0.8% 2.4%
First Four0.8% 0.4% 0.9%
First Round11.3% 15.7% 9.4%
Second Round1.3% 2.2% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Away) - 30.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 412 - 416 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 129   @ Troy L 75-80 31%    
  Nov 09, 2024 194   @ Marshall L 78-80 43%    
  Nov 13, 2024 196   Wright St. W 86-82 65%    
  Nov 16, 2024 342   @ Detroit Mercy W 80-72 77%    
  Nov 21, 2024 290   Stetson W 78-72 72%    
  Nov 30, 2024 146   Oakland W 76-74 57%    
  Dec 14, 2024 198   @ Youngstown St. L 76-78 44%    
  Dec 18, 2024 3   @ Houston L 59-81 3%    
  Dec 29, 2024 12   @ Purdue L 67-85 6%    
  Jan 04, 2025 311   @ Western Michigan W 80-75 66%    
  Jan 07, 2025 287   Eastern Michigan W 78-69 78%    
  Jan 11, 2025 277   Central Michigan W 75-67 76%    
  Jan 14, 2025 131   @ Akron L 70-75 33%    
  Jan 18, 2025 240   @ Ball St. W 76-75 52%    
  Jan 21, 2025 118   Kent St. L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 25, 2025 265   @ Bowling Green W 77-75 56%    
  Jan 28, 2025 121   @ Ohio L 74-80 31%    
  Feb 01, 2025 306   Northern Illinois W 82-72 80%    
  Feb 04, 2025 337   Buffalo W 85-71 87%    
  Feb 11, 2025 233   @ Miami (OH) W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 287   @ Eastern Michigan W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 18, 2025 240   Ball St. W 79-72 71%    
  Feb 22, 2025 265   Bowling Green W 80-72 74%    
  Feb 25, 2025 118   @ Kent St. L 72-78 31%    
  Mar 01, 2025 337   @ Buffalo W 82-74 73%    
  Mar 04, 2025 131   Akron W 73-72 52%    
  Mar 07, 2025 121   Ohio W 77-76 50%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.1 4.0 3.2 1.6 0.4 13.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.1 4.4 1.8 0.3 14.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.7 3.7 0.8 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.4 3.0 5.6 3.2 0.5 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.1 2.9 0.4 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.4 6.3 8.1 9.9 11.5 12.3 11.9 10.5 8.3 5.8 3.5 1.6 0.4 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.6    1.5 0.1
16-2 92.2% 3.2    2.6 0.6 0.0
15-3 68.7% 4.0    2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 36.9% 3.1    1.2 1.3 0.4 0.0
13-5 11.5% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.6% 13.6 8.5 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 58.5% 55.7% 2.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.3%
17-1 1.6% 51.2% 50.0% 1.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 2.3%
16-2 3.5% 35.4% 35.2% 0.1% 12.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.2%
15-3 5.8% 31.3% 31.3% 13.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.0
14-4 8.3% 24.0% 24.0% 13.8 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 6.3
13-5 10.5% 18.0% 18.0% 14.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.1 8.6
12-6 11.9% 11.8% 11.8% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 10.5
11-7 12.3% 8.0% 8.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 11.4
10-8 11.5% 6.0% 6.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 10.8
9-9 9.9% 3.8% 3.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.5
8-10 8.1% 2.3% 2.3% 15.8 0.0 0.2 7.9
7-11 6.3% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 6.3
6-12 4.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.4
5-13 2.7% 2.7
4-14 1.5% 1.5
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.5 3.2 2.6 1.6 88.4 0.0%