Toledo
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#221
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#166
Pace71.3#92
Improvement-1.9#277

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#105
First Shot+0.8#144
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#87
Layup/Dunks+2.4#97
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#347
Freethrows-0.1#176
Improvement-1.1#240

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#329
First Shot-4.8#320
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#267
Layups/Dunks-5.9#356
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#278
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#234
Freethrows+3.0#24
Improvement-0.8#231
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 8.0% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 95.2% 100.0% 93.7%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.6% 0.8%
First Round5.5% 7.9% 4.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Away) - 24.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 35 - 55 - 10
Quad 412 - 418 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 118   @ Troy L 74-84 21%     0 - 1 -4.7 +0.9 -5.0
  Nov 09, 2024 190   @ Marshall W 90-80 35%     1 - 1 +10.9 +11.0 -0.9
  Nov 13, 2024 220   Wright St. W 86-77 60%     2 - 1 +3.2 +5.4 -2.4
  Nov 16, 2024 334   @ Detroit Mercy W 82-67 69%     3 - 1 +6.7 +4.5 +1.7
  Nov 21, 2024 349   Stetson W 103-78 82%     4 - 1 +12.1 +16.6 -5.7
  Nov 22, 2024 124   Jacksonville St. W 82-80 30%     5 - 1 +4.1 +14.8 -10.6
  Nov 23, 2024 54   UC San Diego L 45-80 10%     5 - 2 -24.4 -20.9 -4.8
  Nov 30, 2024 198   Oakland L 52-85 56%     5 - 3 -37.6 -18.7 -22.4
  Dec 14, 2024 186   @ Youngstown St. L 87-93 34%     5 - 4 -5.0 +13.9 -18.7
  Dec 18, 2024 3   @ Houston L 49-78 1%     5 - 5 -4.0 -12.5 +9.0
  Dec 29, 2024 16   @ Purdue L 64-83 3%     5 - 6 +1.0 +0.8 -0.5
  Jan 04, 2025 302   @ Western Michigan W 76-70 58%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +0.6 -3.3 +3.6
  Jan 07, 2025 291   Eastern Michigan W 90-87 73%     7 - 6 2 - 0 -6.6 +4.3 -11.2
  Jan 10, 2025 215   Central Michigan W 69-67 58%     8 - 6 3 - 0 -3.3 +0.2 -3.3
  Jan 14, 2025 102   @ Akron L 78-85 17%     8 - 7 3 - 1 -0.1 +5.9 -5.8
  Jan 18, 2025 261   @ Ball St. W 93-75 49%     9 - 7 4 - 1 +15.1 +25.1 -8.3
  Jan 21, 2025 137   Kent St. L 64-83 42%     9 - 8 4 - 2 -20.3 +0.2 -23.0
  Jan 24, 2025 301   @ Bowling Green W 84-71 58%     10 - 8 5 - 2 +7.7 +8.3 -0.7
  Jan 28, 2025 172   @ Ohio W 86-83 31%     11 - 8 6 - 2 +5.0 +7.9 -3.1
  Feb 01, 2025 341   Northern Illinois W 89-85 85%     12 - 8 7 - 2 -10.4 +5.2 -15.8
  Feb 04, 2025 352   Buffalo W 87-74 87%     13 - 8 8 - 2 -2.7 +6.8 -9.7
  Feb 08, 2025 138   James Madison W 72-69 43%     14 - 8 +1.7 +9.8 -7.5
  Feb 11, 2025 171   @ Miami (OH) L 80-92 30%     14 - 9 8 - 3 -9.9 +4.8 -14.4
  Feb 15, 2025 291   @ Eastern Michigan L 73-80 55%     14 - 10 8 - 4 -11.6 +1.7 -13.7
  Feb 18, 2025 261   Ball St. W 67-66 68%     15 - 10 9 - 4 -7.0 -2.7 -4.1
  Feb 21, 2025 301   Bowling Green L 68-69 75%     15 - 11 9 - 5 -11.4 -7.9 -3.6
  Feb 25, 2025 137   @ Kent St. L 71-78 24%    
  Mar 01, 2025 352   @ Buffalo W 84-77 75%    
  Mar 04, 2025 102   Akron L 81-86 34%    
  Mar 07, 2025 172   Ohio L 82-83 51%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 1.1 2.1 2nd
3rd 1.7 23.7 18.8 2.8 46.9 3rd
4th 0.1 11.6 14.1 0.4 26.3 4th
5th 5.4 16.2 1.5 23.0 5th
6th 1.4 0.3 1.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 6.9 29.7 39.3 20.1 4.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 4.0% 12.1% 12.1% 14.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 3.5
12-6 20.1% 8.2% 8.2% 15.1 0.2 1.0 0.4 18.5
11-7 39.3% 6.2% 6.2% 15.5 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.2 36.9
10-8 29.7% 3.5% 3.5% 15.6 0.4 0.6 28.6
9-9 6.9% 3.7% 3.7% 15.6 0.1 0.2 6.7
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.4 94.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 14.3 4.2 60.4 35.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%
Lose Out 4.8%