Toledo
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#138
Expected Predictive Rating+5.6#100
Pace72.1#97
Improvement+1.3#55

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#87
First Shot+3.7#75
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#197
Layup/Dunks+5.1#41
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#59
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#305
Freethrows+0.5#160
Improvement+0.2#133

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#236
First Shot-2.5#259
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#149
Layups/Dunks-4.9#322
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#296
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#237
Freethrows+5.9#3
Improvement+1.0#52
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.4% 19.4% 13.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.3 13.8
.500 or above 86.5% 89.2% 72.1%
.500 or above in Conference 87.6% 89.0% 80.4%
Conference Champion 24.1% 25.7% 15.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 0.9%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round18.3% 19.3% 12.8%
Second Round2.2% 2.4% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stetson (Neutral) - 84.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 45 - 8
Quad 413 - 318 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 124   @ Troy L 74-84 34%     0 - 1 -4.3 +1.1 -4.8
  Nov 09, 2024 195   @ Marshall W 90-80 50%     1 - 1 +11.4 +11.4 -0.7
  Nov 13, 2024 186   Wright St. W 86-77 71%     2 - 1 +4.7 +5.5 -1.0
  Nov 16, 2024 338   @ Detroit Mercy W 82-67 83%     3 - 1 +6.5 +1.9 +4.1
  Nov 21, 2024 326   Stetson W 81-70 84%    
  Nov 30, 2024 176   Oakland W 76-71 69%    
  Dec 14, 2024 190   @ Youngstown St. L 76-77 50%    
  Dec 18, 2024 4   @ Houston L 60-81 3%    
  Dec 29, 2024 19   @ Purdue L 70-86 8%    
  Jan 04, 2025 319   @ Western Michigan W 81-74 74%    
  Jan 07, 2025 301   Eastern Michigan W 78-66 86%    
  Jan 11, 2025 202   Central Michigan W 77-70 72%    
  Jan 14, 2025 139   @ Akron L 75-78 40%    
  Jan 18, 2025 246   @ Ball St. W 78-75 60%    
  Jan 21, 2025 123   Kent St. W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 24, 2025 264   @ Bowling Green W 80-76 63%    
  Jan 28, 2025 156   @ Ohio L 78-80 44%    
  Feb 01, 2025 293   Northern Illinois W 81-70 84%    
  Feb 04, 2025 330   Buffalo W 86-72 89%    
  Feb 11, 2025 228   @ Miami (OH) W 77-75 56%    
  Feb 15, 2025 301   @ Eastern Michigan W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 18, 2025 246   Ball St. W 81-72 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 264   Bowling Green W 83-73 80%    
  Feb 25, 2025 123   @ Kent St. L 72-76 36%    
  Mar 01, 2025 330   @ Buffalo W 83-75 76%    
  Mar 04, 2025 139   Akron W 78-75 60%    
  Mar 07, 2025 156   Ohio W 81-77 64%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.5 7.1 5.5 2.5 0.7 24.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.6 7.0 5.6 2.0 0.3 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.7 6.5 3.9 0.8 0.0 15.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.5 2.9 0.4 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 4.2 2.6 0.3 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.5 5.4 7.5 10.1 12.7 13.7 13.6 11.9 9.1 5.8 2.5 0.7 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 2.5    2.5 0.1
16-2 95.6% 5.5    4.8 0.8 0.0
15-3 77.7% 7.1    4.8 2.1 0.2
14-4 46.5% 5.5    2.5 2.4 0.6 0.0
13-5 16.5% 2.2    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.1% 24.1 15.8 6.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 60.4% 58.9% 1.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.5%
17-1 2.5% 47.7% 47.5% 0.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 0.4%
16-2 5.8% 41.1% 41.1% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.4 0.1%
15-3 9.1% 35.3% 35.3% 12.8 0.0 1.0 1.6 0.5 0.0 5.9
14-4 11.9% 26.7% 26.7% 13.2 0.5 1.5 1.0 0.1 8.8
13-5 13.6% 20.0% 20.0% 13.7 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 10.9
12-6 13.7% 15.9% 15.9% 13.9 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.0 11.5
11-7 12.7% 11.8% 11.8% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.0 11.2
10-8 10.1% 8.3% 8.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 9.2
9-9 7.5% 6.2% 6.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 7.0
8-10 5.4% 4.1% 4.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.2
7-11 3.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.5
6-12 1.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 0.9% 0.9
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.7 6.3 4.9 2.4 0.4 81.6 0.0%