Toledo
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#211
Expected Predictive Rating+0.2#165
Pace73.5#67
Improvement-4.5#354

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#114
First Shot+1.6#128
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#139
Layup/Dunks+3.2#70
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#24
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#334
Freethrows-0.2#187
Improvement-1.3#289

Defense
Total Defense-4.8#318
First Shot-3.5#294
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#279
Layups/Dunks-5.6#349
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#217
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#196
Freethrows+2.4#45
Improvement-3.1#351
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.2% 14.5% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 13.7 14.6
.500 or above 62.8% 87.4% 62.0%
.500 or above in Conference 73.6% 86.4% 73.2%
Conference Champion 8.6% 15.6% 8.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.8% 1.5%
First Four0.4% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round8.0% 14.5% 7.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue (Away) - 3.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 54 - 10
Quad 412 - 516 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 125   @ Troy L 74-84 23%     0 - 1 -4.7 +0.1 -4.2
  Nov 09, 2024 190   @ Marshall W 90-80 34%     1 - 1 +11.7 +12.0 -1.1
  Nov 13, 2024 154   Wright St. W 86-77 52%     2 - 1 +6.1 +6.4 -0.5
  Nov 16, 2024 323   @ Detroit Mercy W 82-67 64%     3 - 1 +8.9 +4.0 +4.4
  Nov 21, 2024 344   Stetson W 103-78 81%     4 - 1 +13.2 +17.9 -5.9
  Nov 22, 2024 167   Jacksonville St. W 82-80 43%     5 - 1 +1.4 +12.3 -10.7
  Nov 23, 2024 91   UC San Diego L 45-80 21%     5 - 2 -28.9 -22.9 -7.2
  Nov 30, 2024 206   Oakland L 52-85 60%     5 - 3 -38.1 -18.5 -23.0
  Dec 14, 2024 195   @ Youngstown St. L 87-93 35%     5 - 4 -4.5 +15.5 -19.9
  Dec 18, 2024 6   @ Houston L 49-78 2%     5 - 5 -6.9 -12.1 +5.8
  Dec 29, 2024 20   @ Purdue L 69-89 3%    
  Jan 04, 2025 296   @ Western Michigan W 80-78 57%    
  Jan 07, 2025 317   Eastern Michigan W 83-74 81%    
  Jan 10, 2025 225   Central Michigan W 80-76 64%    
  Jan 14, 2025 163   @ Akron L 81-86 32%    
  Jan 18, 2025 288   @ Ball St. W 78-77 56%    
  Jan 21, 2025 113   Kent St. L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 24, 2025 267   @ Bowling Green W 82-81 51%    
  Jan 28, 2025 149   @ Ohio L 80-86 29%    
  Feb 01, 2025 346   Northern Illinois W 85-72 87%    
  Feb 04, 2025 330   Buffalo W 85-75 83%    
  Feb 11, 2025 209   @ Miami (OH) L 76-79 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 317   @ Eastern Michigan W 80-77 62%    
  Feb 18, 2025 288   Ball St. W 81-74 75%    
  Feb 22, 2025 267   Bowling Green W 84-78 71%    
  Feb 25, 2025 113   @ Kent St. L 67-76 21%    
  Mar 01, 2025 330   @ Buffalo W 82-78 66%    
  Mar 04, 2025 163   Akron W 84-83 53%    
  Mar 07, 2025 149   Ohio W 83-82 51%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.8 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 8.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.7 2.7 0.5 0.1 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.0 5.8 2.6 0.3 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.9 6.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.1 6.6 2.8 0.3 0.0 13.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.5 3.2 0.4 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.5 3.4 0.5 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.4 0.6 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 4.6 7.5 10.5 13.2 14.9 14.1 12.1 9.1 5.8 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 94.8% 1.1    0.9 0.1 0.0
15-3 82.3% 2.4    1.6 0.7 0.0
14-4 48.6% 2.8    1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 18.1% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.6% 8.6 4.5 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 28.1% 28.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.2% 33.0% 33.0% 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8
15-3 2.9% 23.5% 23.5% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.2
14-4 5.8% 18.4% 18.4% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 4.7
13-5 9.1% 15.9% 15.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 7.7
12-6 12.1% 12.0% 12.0% 14.7 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.1 10.6
11-7 14.1% 8.2% 8.2% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 12.9
10-8 14.9% 6.5% 6.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.3 13.9
9-9 13.2% 4.5% 4.5% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 12.6
8-10 10.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.2
7-11 7.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.4
6-12 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.6
5-13 2.2% 2.2
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 3.5 1.3 91.8 0.0%