Buffalo
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.8#330
Expected Predictive Rating-5.7#267
Pace72.6#88
Improvement-0.3#208

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#288
First Shot-0.3#196
After Offensive Rebound-3.7#345
Layup/Dunks+5.0#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#340
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#226
Freethrows-0.7#220
Improvement-0.8#309

Defense
Total Defense-5.8#343
First Shot-4.5#306
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#264
Layups/Dunks-1.4#223
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#114
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#305
Freethrows-0.7#222
Improvement+0.6#105
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.9
.500 or above 2.4% 3.4% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 11.6% 14.0% 7.2%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 37.0% 32.7% 44.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morgan St. (Home) - 64.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 71 - 13
Quad 46 - 87 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 305   @ Old Dominion W 83-82 32%     1 - 0 -3.9 +3.5 -7.4
  Nov 11, 2024 56   @ Notre Dame L 77-86 3%     1 - 1 +3.1 +3.4 +0.6
  Nov 14, 2024 159   Bryant L 64-87 26%     1 - 2 -26.0 -16.5 -7.2
  Nov 19, 2024 149   @ Vermont L 67-78 11%     1 - 3 -7.4 +3.8 -12.1
  Nov 22, 2024 333   Morgan St. W 81-77 64%    
  Nov 25, 2024 272   N.C. A&T L 78-79 46%    
  Dec 01, 2024 32   @ Penn St. L 67-93 1%    
  Dec 07, 2024 114   @ St. Bonaventure L 64-80 7%    
  Dec 19, 2024 55   @ Georgia L 65-87 2%    
  Dec 29, 2024 113   @ Temple L 66-82 7%    
  Jan 04, 2025 228   @ Miami (OH) L 69-79 19%    
  Jan 07, 2025 156   Ohio L 74-81 27%    
  Jan 11, 2025 123   Kent St. L 67-77 20%    
  Jan 14, 2025 264   @ Bowling Green L 72-80 25%    
  Jan 18, 2025 319   @ Western Michigan L 74-78 36%    
  Jan 21, 2025 139   Akron L 71-79 23%    
  Jan 25, 2025 301   @ Eastern Michigan L 68-73 32%    
  Jan 28, 2025 202   Central Michigan L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 01, 2025 246   Ball St. L 74-77 41%    
  Feb 04, 2025 138   @ Toledo L 72-86 11%    
  Feb 11, 2025 293   @ Northern Illinois L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 15, 2025 264   Bowling Green L 75-77 44%    
  Feb 18, 2025 319   Western Michigan W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 22, 2025 246   @ Ball St. L 71-80 23%    
  Feb 25, 2025 202   @ Central Michigan L 66-77 17%    
  Mar 01, 2025 138   Toledo L 75-83 24%    
  Mar 04, 2025 228   Miami (OH) L 72-76 38%    
  Mar 07, 2025 139   @ Akron L 68-82 11%    
Projected Record 7 - 21 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.1 5th
6th 0.2 1.5 2.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.1 1.2 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.3 3.2 0.4 0.0 11.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.6 6.5 4.1 0.8 0.0 15.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 5.4 7.5 4.5 1.0 0.0 20.3 11th
12th 1.7 5.2 7.9 6.8 3.3 0.7 0.0 25.7 12th
Total 1.7 5.4 9.7 13.0 14.7 14.2 12.4 10.0 7.3 5.2 3.0 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 85.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 47.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 18.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 9.5% 9.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 8.2% 8.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.5% 8.1% 8.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-6 0.9% 7.3% 7.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
11-7 1.8% 4.7% 4.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.7
10-8 3.0% 2.4% 2.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.9
9-9 5.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.1
8-10 7.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.3
7-11 10.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.0
6-12 12.4% 12.4
5-13 14.2% 14.2
4-14 14.7% 14.7
3-15 13.0% 13.0
2-16 9.7% 9.7
1-17 5.4% 5.4
0-18 1.7% 1.7
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%