Buffalo
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.1#352
Expected Predictive Rating-10.2#323
Pace75.3#32
Improvement-3.2#313

Offense
Total Offense-8.4#354
First Shot-4.4#299
After Offensive Rebound-4.0#350
Layup/Dunks+2.4#98
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#341
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#232
Freethrows-1.7#284
Improvement-3.9#340

Defense
Total Defense-4.7#315
First Shot-4.9#325
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#163
Layups/Dunks-0.4#189
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#139
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#356
Freethrows+1.3#93
Improvement+0.7#148
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 30.7% 10.4% 34.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Away) - 15.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 70 - 12
Quad 46 - 107 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 286   @ Old Dominion W 83-82 20%     1 - 0 -3.4 +3.7 -7.1
  Nov 11, 2024 95   @ Notre Dame L 77-86 4%     1 - 1 -1.3 -0.8 +0.3
  Nov 14, 2024 161   Bryant L 64-87 16%     1 - 2 -25.5 -16.5 -6.7
  Nov 19, 2024 230   @ Vermont L 67-78 13%     1 - 3 -12.1 +2.6 -15.6
  Nov 22, 2024 330   Morgan St. W 82-73 49%     2 - 3 -4.0 +1.0 -4.9
  Nov 25, 2024 316   N.C. A&T W 82-81 44%     3 - 3 -10.7 -5.2 -5.6
  Dec 01, 2024 62   @ Penn St. L 64-87 2%     3 - 4 -11.9 -4.1 -7.8
  Dec 07, 2024 106   @ St. Bonaventure L 55-65 4%     3 - 5 -3.4 -7.8 +3.5
  Dec 19, 2024 44   @ Georgia L 49-100 1%     3 - 6 -36.8 -15.1 -22.2
  Dec 29, 2024 155   @ Temple L 71-91 7%     3 - 7 -17.0 -11.1 -3.4
  Jan 04, 2025 171   @ Miami (OH) L 79-93 9%     3 - 8 0 - 1 -11.9 +5.2 -16.9
  Jan 07, 2025 172   Ohio L 79-88 17%     3 - 9 0 - 2 -12.1 -5.6 -5.4
  Jan 10, 2025 137   Kent St. L 49-68 14%     3 - 10 0 - 3 -20.3 -21.4 +0.5
  Jan 14, 2025 301   @ Bowling Green L 61-79 23%     3 - 11 0 - 4 -23.3 -13.7 -9.7
  Jan 18, 2025 302   @ Western Michigan W 85-76 23%     4 - 11 1 - 4 +3.6 -2.0 +4.4
  Jan 21, 2025 102   Akron L 58-90 9%     4 - 12 1 - 5 -30.2 -19.9 -7.3
  Jan 25, 2025 291   @ Eastern Michigan L 77-90 21%     4 - 13 1 - 6 -17.6 -0.2 -17.1
  Jan 28, 2025 215   Central Michigan W 75-69 23%     5 - 13 2 - 6 +0.7 -4.4 +4.8
  Feb 01, 2025 261   Ball St. L 76-89 31%     5 - 14 2 - 7 -21.0 -4.5 -16.2
  Feb 04, 2025 221   @ Toledo L 74-87 13%     5 - 15 2 - 8 -13.7 -4.3 -9.1
  Feb 08, 2025 252   Georgia St. L 75-80 30%     5 - 16 -12.6 -13.8 +1.9
  Feb 11, 2025 341   @ Northern Illinois W 73-67 35%     6 - 16 3 - 8 -3.3 -1.0 -2.2
  Feb 15, 2025 301   Bowling Green L 59-63 39%     6 - 17 3 - 9 -14.4 -16.9 +2.4
  Feb 18, 2025 302   Western Michigan L 64-97 40%     6 - 18 3 - 10 -43.4 -14.9 -28.1
  Feb 22, 2025 261   @ Ball St. L 70-80 16%    
  Feb 25, 2025 215   @ Central Michigan L 68-81 10%    
  Mar 01, 2025 221   Toledo L 77-84 25%    
  Mar 04, 2025 171   Miami (OH) L 72-82 19%    
  Mar 07, 2025 102   @ Akron L 70-90 3%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 1.3 3.0 10th
11th 38.1 36.1 11.9 0.7 86.7 11th
12th 8.1 1.4 0.0 9.5 12th
Total 46.1 37.6 13.7 2.4 0.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 0.2% 0.2
6-12 2.4% 2.4
5-13 13.7% 13.7
4-14 37.6% 37.6
3-15 46.1% 46.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 46.1%