Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.6 202
Expected Predictive Rating -1.6 191
Pace 67.0 230
Improvement -2.9 301

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #130 B- C- C+ B C+
Defense D+ #295 D- C C B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 184 57% 203 -0.5 196
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 248 42% 66 -0.6 213
Three Pointers 44% 117 38% 36 +4.2 48
1st FG Attempt 1.08 92 +3.1 92
Second Chance 26.7% 290 1.06 132 0.28 242
Turnovers 16.5% 152
Freethrows 0.34 64 74% 123 0.26 57
Total Offense +1.5 130

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 144 63% 306 -2.9 279
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 319 40% 257 +1.5 77
Three Pointers 44% 83 37% 312 -3.6 323
1st FG Attempt 1.12 328 -5.0 330
Second Chance 32.8% 279 0.96 89 0.32 195
Turnovers 17.3% 157
Freethrows 0.27 65 74% 304 0.20 94
Total Defense -4.0 295

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.4 135 +0.7 299
Shot Type Accuracy +2.5 95 +4.1 328
Possession Length 17.4 181 17.6 245
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 137 0.22 317
Improvement -3.4 #329 +0.5 #156

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 14.9
.500 or above 92% 96% 72%
.500 or above in Conference 33% 39% 8%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 1%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Home) - 81.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 32 - 53 - 9
Quad 413 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 241 Southern Miss W 85 - 79 68% -3  28% 1 - 0 C -2 A +13 B+ B- A F -14 F D- B+
 Fri, Nov 7 244 Green Bay W 83 - 76 69% +3  79% 2 - 0 C -1 B+ +8 B C+ B D- -8 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 98 @DePaul W 66 - 53 16% +11  92% 3 - 0 A +21 C- -1 D- B+ B- A+ +23 B A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 224 Vermont W 94 - 90 64% +0  45% 4 - 0 C- -2 A- +11 A+ F C+ F -13 F C- C+
 Mon, Nov 24 360 VMI W 78 - 70 88% +1  45% 5 - 0 D+ -8 D+ -3 D+ D D+ D+ -4 B+ F F
 Wed, Nov 26 324 Bucknell W 73 - 71 77% +2  53% 6 - 0 D -8 B- +5 B- F A F -13 F D+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 346 @Canisius W 71 - 53 74% +8  75% 7 - 0 B +9 C- -1 D C- B- A +11 A- D+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 134 St. Bonaventure L 69 - 77 45% -7  0% 7 - 1 D -9 D- -6 B B F C- -4 D D- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 259 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83 - 79 50% -1  36% 8 - 1 C +1 A- +11 A D+ D F+ -9 F F+ C+
 Sun, Dec 14 252 @East Carolina L 70 - 73 48% +8  76% 8 - 2 D+ -5 D+ -3 F+ C D+ C- -2 A F F
 Sat, Dec 20 295 @Western Michigan W 88 - 71 58% +10  87% 9 - 2 1 - 0 B+ +12 A +14 C+ B+ A+ C -0 D+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 314 @Northern Illinois W 81 - 67 63% +7  83% 10 - 2 2 - 0 B- +8 B +7 B B+ D- C+ +1 C- A- D+
 Sat, Jan 3 310 Ball St. W 85 - 72 81% +14  98% 11 - 2 3 - 0 C +1 A +12 A+ A+ D+ F+ -10 D F B-
 Sat, Jan 10 199 @Ohio L 80 - 91 38% -4  35% 11 - 3 3 - 1 D -11 C +0 D+ C B- F+ -10 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 147 Kent St. L 81 - 87 49% -7  6% 11 - 4 3 - 2 D -8 C+ +3 C D+ A+ F -11 F D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 87 @Miami (OH) L 102 - 105 OT 13% +0  47% 11 - 5 3 - 3 B- +6 A +12 A+ D C D+ -5 F A+ D
 Tue, Jan 20 72 Akron L 63 - 82 24% -17  0% 11 - 6 3 - 4 D- -14 F -12 F+ F+ C C- -2 D A+ B
 Fri, Jan 23 183 Massachusetts L 67 - 68 57% -7  17% 11 - 7 3 - 5 D+ -5 D- -7 B- C- C- C+ +2 B- C C+
 Tue, Jan 27 158 @Bowling Green W 89 - 78 30% +5  87% 12 - 7 4 - 5 B+ +14 A+ +21 A+ D+ A D -7 C- F D
 Sat, Jan 31 199 Ohio L 83 - 95 61% -8  5% 12 - 8 4 - 6 F -18 C+ +2 A C- D+ F -20 F D+ F
 Tue, Feb 3 87 Miami (OH) L 71 - 73 28% -4  6% 12 - 9 4 - 7 C +1 D+ -3 A- F F B +5 D- A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 7 191 @South Alabama L 69 - 81 36% -18  2% 12 - 10 D -11 D+ -4 C F D D- -7 F C C+
 Wed, Feb 11 310 @Ball St. W 63 - 53 63% +5  91% 13 - 10 5 - 7 C+ +4 C- -2 C- D+ C B+ +8 C C A
 Tue, Feb 17 314 Northern Illinois W 79 - 69 81%
 Sat, Feb 21 183 @Massachusetts L 77 - 81 35%
 Tue, Feb 24 72 @Akron L 75 - 88 10%
 Sat, Feb 28 296 Central Michigan W 80 - 72 77%
 Tue, Mar 3 231 Eastern Michigan W 75 - 71 66%
 Fri, Mar 6 165 @Toledo L 77 - 82 32%
Totals 16 - 13 8 - 10 -3 C+ +1 B- C- C+ D+ -4 D- C C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C- B- B+ B- 38% 17% 44% C+ B- D+ C+ C- C+ B C+ B D+ D C- D D- 40% 16% 44% D D- D+ B- C C B- D B-
1.11 57% 42% 38% +3 0 1.08 27% 1.1 .28 16% .34 74% .26 1.14 63% 40% 37% +4 +1 1.12 33% 1.0 .32 17% .27 74% .26
Nov
3		 Southern Miss A D A+ A B 36% 7% 58% B+ B+ A D B- A A+ C A+ F D+ F D- F 49% 13% 38% F F C+ F D- B+ D+ F F
1.29 50% 67% 42% +6 +2 1.18 37% 0.9 .34 12% .62 69% .43 1.20 64% 67% 35% +7 +2 1.20 29% 1.3 .38 21% .39 95% .37
Nov
7		 Green Bay B+ C+ C+ A- B- 49% 13% 38% A- B C- A- C+ B A+ F+ A+ D- F F F F 38% 4% 58% F+ F A+ A+ A+ C+ D F+ F+
1.29 63% 40% 40% +6 +2 1.18 28% 1.3 .38 11% .72 66% .47 1.18 71% 50% 42% +13 +2 1.31 15% 0.5 .08 17% .39 81% .32
Nov
11		 DePaul C- F B C+ D- 36% 32% 32% D+ D- D+ A+ B+ B- A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ F B 32% 17% 51% C- B D A+ A+ A+ F A+ C+
0.98 31% 43% 36% -7 -2 0.84 26% 1.3 .34 18% .49 70% .34 0.78 38% 14% 43% -3 0 0.95 34% 0.3 .11 30% .42 50% .21
Nov
18		 Vermont A- A A+ A+ A+ 41% 16% 43% B A+ F+ F F C+ A+ A+ A+ F D+ F F F 43% 8% 49% F F A- F C- C+ F F F
1.29 70% 50% 43% +13 +1 1.29 19% 0.5 .10 12% .58 84% .48 1.23 64% 50% 48% +14 +2 1.33 19% 1.4 .26 16% .36 82% .30
Nov
24		 VMI D+ F A- B+ D- 45% 5% 50% A D+ F B- D D+ A+ B A+ D+ C- F+ A+ B+ 30% 17% 53% C+ B+ F F F F D- C D
1.17 50% 50% 40% +2 +2 1.10 31% 1.1 .34 18% .68 76% .51 1.05 56% 44% 18% -12 0 0.77 36% 1.2 .43 12% .34 70% .24
Nov
26		 Bucknell B- D- A A C+ 35% 8% 56% A- B- C- F F A B C+ B F F A- F+ F 40% 9% 51% F+ F F A+ D+ D+ B A+ A
1.20 53% 50% 41% +5 +1 1.15 31% 0.6 .19 13% .36 74% .26 1.17 68% 25% 38% +6 +2 1.17 41% 0.8 .31 18% .24 58% .14
Nov
29		 Canisius C- D- C C D 23% 10% 67% C D F A+ C- B- C A+ B A C+ F+ A+ A 40% 23% 36% D+ A- B F D+ C- C+ D C
1.10 55% 40% 34% 0 0 1.02 19% 1.7 .31 14% .31 82% .25 0.82 47% 45% 12% -15 0 0.72 23% 1.3 .29 19% .27 71% .19
Dec
6		 St. Bonaventure D- A D C B- 43% 13% 43% B+ B F+ A+ B F F+ F F C- F+ B D D 36% 18% 47% D+ D F B+ D- A+ C- F D
1.03 70% 33% 35% +5 +1 1.15 21% 1.8 .38 25% .22 64% .14 1.15 69% 38% 38% +7 0 1.16 52% 0.8 .42 25% .28 86% .24
Dec
9		 Maryland Baltimore Co. A- B+ A+ A+ A+ 50% 21% 29% C+ A C+ F+ D+ D A A+ A+ F+ D+ F D F 30% 23% 47% B- F F+ D- F+ C+ A+ F A-
1.25 67% 60% 43% +13 +1 1.29 31% 0.9 .27 15% .32 89% .28 1.19 63% 67% 36% +9 -1 1.19 27% 1.1 .31 17% .14 100% .14
Dec
14		 East Carolina D+ F A+ C F 39% 16% 45% B F+ B D- C D+ A+ B- A+ C- A+ C A+ A+ 42% 21% 37% D A D F F F F F+ F
1.02 35% 50% 35% -7 +1 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 19% .38 76% .29 1.06 41% 36% 21% -15 0 0.73 37% 1.2 .44 10% .49 77% .37
Dec
20		 Western Michigan A A- F C C+ 34% 8% 58% B- C+ C- A+ B+ A+ A B A C C C+ C C- 35% 14% 51% D- D+ C+ A+ A+ F A- D B+
1.34 71% 25% 34% +4 +1 1.12 30% 1.5 .45 6% .39 75% .29 1.08 55% 38% 34% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.4 .12 11% .20 75% .15
Dec
31		 Northern Illinois B C F A+ B 43% 15% 43% C B C+ A B+ D- A D+ B+ C+ F F A+ C 38% 4% 58% D- C- C+ A+ A- D+ B F D
1.19 60% 29% 45% +7 +1 1.17 34% 1.3 .44 21% .42 70% .29 0.98 68% 50% 24% -4 +2 0.98 30% 0.6 .18 21% .29 88% .26
Jan
3		 Ball St. A B+ A+ A+ A 43% 9% 48% A A+ C A+ A+ D+ A- A+ A+ F+ A A- F+ D 31% 16% 53% C- D F D- F B- F F F
1.31 68% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.30 35% 1.8 .61 20% .35 94% .33 1.11 43% 29% 38% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.0 .37 19% .44 83% .36
Jan
10		 Ohio C D- A D+ D+ 41% 19% 41% C D+ C+ C- C B- B- F C- F+ F F F F 43% 26% 32% C- F F F F A+ D F F
1.09 50% 50% 32% -2 0 0.98 35% 1.0 .35 15% .35 64% .22 1.24 75% 58% 40% +15 0 1.32 50% 1.3 .64 24% .36 85% .31
Jan
13		 Kent St. C+ C F A C+ 38% 22% 40% C- C F A+ D+ A+ A C- A- F F A+ F F 44% 16% 40% D F C- D+ D+ D+ A- D+ B+
1.15 57% 25% 41% +1 0 1.04 15% 1.7 .26 7% .41 70% .29 1.24 68% 13% 45% +7 +1 1.18 36% 1.2 .42 17% .31 78% .24
Jan
17		 Miami (OH) A C+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% D+ A+ D- D D C B+ A- A- D+ F A+ F F 48% 10% 43% F F A+ A+ A+ D D A+ B
1.22 62% 53% 50% +15 -1 1.30 24% 0.8 .18 18% .34 83% .28 1.26 76% 17% 46% +14 +2 1.34 15% 0.8 .12 13% .36 62% .22
Jan
20		 Akron F C- B- F F+ 30% 19% 52% D+ F+ C- F F+ C D- D F+ C- C B+ F D 29% 12% 59% C+ D B+ A+ A+ B F B- F+
0.90 56% 40% 25% -7 0 0.87 32% 0.7 .23 19% .23 69% .16 1.17 60% 33% 43% +8 0 1.20 29% 1.0 .29 19% .33 74% .25
Jan
23		 Massachusetts D- A+ B- C B 23% 26% 51% F B- F A+ C- C- F F F C+ D- A- B+ C+ 36% 28% 36% B B- D+ B C C+ B B+ B
1.01 82% 42% 33% +6 -2 1.11 17% 1.6 .28 18% .26 50% .13 1.03 65% 31% 29% -2 -1 0.96 34% 1.1 .37 20% .30 63% .19
Jan
27		 Bowling Green A+ D A+ A+ A+ 40% 10% 50% B- A+ D- B D+ A B+ B+ A- D D+ A+ C- C 55% 12% 33% D- C- D F F D B A+ A
1.33 53% 60% 54% +15 +1 1.35 22% 1.2 .26 13% .38 77% .29 1.17 61% 17% 35% 0 +2 1.06 31% 1.4 .43 15% .26 60% .16
Jan
31		 Ohio C+ B A A A 48% 26% 26% C- A F A+ C- D+ A+ D A+ F F F B+ F 46% 28% 26% C- F F+ B- D+ F F F+ F
1.16 64% 50% 42% +9 0 1.20 22% 1.5 .33 18% .46 70% .32 1.33 72% 53% 29% +9 0 1.19 35% 0.9 .32 8% .40 77% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Miami (OH) D+ B+ D+ A A- 35% 17% 48% C+ A- B+ F F F B+ C+ B+ B F F B+ F+ 43% 20% 37% C D- A- A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+
1.04 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 36% 0.2 .06 22% .34 78% .26 1.07 78% 64% 30% +12 0 1.26 18% 0.4 .07 19% .11 50% .05
Feb
7		 South Alabama D+ C F+ B B- 9% 18% 74% F C F+ F F D F F F D- B F F F 49% 10% 41% F+ F A- F C C+ F B- D-
0.99 60% 30% 36% +1 -2 1.00 24% 0.8 .20 20% .11 67% .07 1.16 50% 80% 45% +7 +2 1.20 17% 1.6 .28 14% .40 63% .25
Feb
11		 Ball St. C- C B- D D+ 43% 12% 45% A- C- C- C- D+ C A- A A+ B+ A- A+ C B- 45% 11% 43% F C F+ B+ C A A F A-
1.06 61% 40% 32% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.0 .32 19% .35 88% .31 0.90 45% 20% 32% -9 +2 0.86 31% 0.7 .23 22% .19 78% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.6 2.9 0.4 4.0 4th
5th 0.2 6.1 3.8 0.1 10.2 5th
6th 0.1 4.4 12.1 1.0 17.5 6th
7th 0.0 2.4 17.6 5.5 0.1 25.6 7th
8th 1.6 16.4 12.9 0.4 31.3 8th
9th 0.1 3.6 4.4 0.2 8.1 9th
10th 0.4 1.9 0.2 2.5 10th
11th 0.5 0.2 0.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 13th
Total 1.0 7.3 23.5 35.4 24.6 7.7 0.6 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.6% 9.1% 9.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 7.7% 4.3% 4.3% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.4
9-9 24.6% 4.0% 4.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 23.7
8-10 35.4% 1.7% 1.7% 14.8 0.2 0.4 0.1 34.7
7-11 23.5% 0.8% 0.8% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 23.3
6-12 7.3% 7.3
5-13 1.0% 1.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 14.3 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 1.0%