Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -2.9 212
Results Rating -2.4 204
Consistency 0.14 134
Pace 66.8 227
Improvement -3.8 313

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 131 B- C- C+ B- C+
Defense D 296 D- C C+ C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 187 C 57% 188 -0.3 196
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 227 C+ 39% 137 -1.1 246
Three Pointers 44% 106 B 37% 54 +3.9 55
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 120 C+ +1.9 105
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 100
Second Chance D 26.1% 301 B- 1.11 76 C- 0.29 231
Opponents' Steals C- 9.9% 242
Other Turnovers B 6.2% 61
Turnovers C+ 16.1% 143
Freethrows B- 0.33 84 C+ 74% 129 B- 0.25 76
Total Offense C+ +1.4 131

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 45% 235 C- 11.5% 210
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 236 C+ 4.3% 135
Three Pointers D+ 80% 270 B 0.3% 47
Total C 54% 198 C+ 5.3% 149


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 138 D 63% 305 +2.8 278
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 330 D 42% 299 -1.3 83
Three Pointers 44% 85 D- 38% 328 +4.0 336
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 305 D- +4.5 340
1st FG Attempt D- 1.13 339
Second Chance D+ 32.7% 281 B 0.95 61 C 0.31 185
Turnovers from Steals B 11.1% 63
Other Turnovers D+ 6.6% 270
Turnovers C+ 17.7% 122
Freethrows B- 0.28 99 D- 76% 335 C+ 0.21 148
Total Defense D -4.3 296

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 317 C- 10.3% 204
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 235 D- 1.1% 351
Three Pointers D- 89% 333 D+ 0.5% 260
Total D- 63% 332 D+ 4.5% 261

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 174 17.6 244
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 130 0.21 314
Consistency 0.12 126 0.12 174
Improvement -4.0 340 +0.3 179

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 224 212 193
Results Rating Rank 211 205 180
Conference Record 7 - 11 7 - 11 8 - 10
Conference Finish 7 7 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 2% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.1 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 2% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Toledo (Away) - 27.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 44 - 8
Quad 411 - 615 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 225 Southern Miss W 85 - 79 64% -3  28% 1 - 0 C -1 A +14 B+ B- A F -14 F D B
 Fri, Nov 7 209 Green Bay W 83 - 76 61% +3  79% 2 - 0 C +1 B+ +9 B+ C+ B+ D- -7 F A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 84 @DePaul W 66 - 53 12% +11  92% 3 - 0 A +23 C +1 D- B B A+ +22 B A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 234 Vermont W 94 - 90 66% +0  45% 4 - 0 C- -3 A- +11 A+ F C+ F -14 F C- C+
 Mon, Nov 24 358 VMI W 78 - 70 89% +1  45% 5 - 0 D -8 D+ -3 D D D D+ -4 B+ F F
 Wed, Nov 26 330 Bucknell W 73 - 71 79% +2  53% 6 - 0 D -9 B- +5 C+ F A F -14 F D+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 338 @Canisius W 71 - 53 73% +8  75% 7 - 0 B +9 C +0 D+ C C+ A +10 A D C-
 Sat, Dec 6 138 St. Bonaventure L 69 - 77 46% -7  0% 7 - 1 D -10 D- -7 B B F C- -3 D D- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 194 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83 - 79 36% -1  36% 8 - 1 B- +5 A +13 A+ C- D F+ -8 F D- C+
 Sun, Dec 14 233 @East Carolina L 70 - 73 43% +8  76% 8 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 D- C D C -1 A F F
 Sat, Dec 20 280 @Western Michigan W 88 - 71 53% +10  87% 9 - 2 1 - 0 B+ +13 A+ +15 C+ A- A+ C -0 D+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 341 @Northern Illinois W 81 - 67 74% +7  83% 10 - 2 2 - 0 C+ +5 B- +5 B B+ F C -1 C- B D+
 Sat, Jan 3 292 Ball St. W 85 - 72 77% +14  98% 11 - 2 3 - 0 C+ +3 A+ +15 A+ A+ D F -11 D F B
 Sat, Jan 10 221 @Ohio L 80 - 91 41% -4  35% 11 - 3 3 - 1 D- -12 C -0 D+ C C+ F -11 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 152 Kent St. L 81 - 87 49% -7  6% 11 - 4 3 - 2 D -9 C+ +3 C D+ A+ F -11 F D D+
 Sat, Jan 17 90 @Miami (OH) L 102 - 105 OT 13% +0  47% 11 - 5 3 - 3 B- +6 A +13 A+ D- C- D- -7 F A+ D
 Tue, Jan 20 71 Akron L 63 - 82 21% -17  0% 11 - 6 3 - 4 D- -14 F -12 F+ D- C C -1 D+ A+ B
 Fri, Jan 23 193 Massachusetts L 67 - 68 58% -7  17% 11 - 7 3 - 5 D+ -6 D- -8 B- C- D+ B- +2 B C C+
 Tue, Jan 27 165 @Bowling Green W 89 - 78 30% +5  87% 12 - 7 4 - 5 B+ +13 A+ +21 A+ C- A D- -7 C- F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 221 Ohio L 83 - 95 64% -8  5% 12 - 8 4 - 6 F -19 C+ +2 A- C- D F -20 F D F
 Tue, Feb 3 90 Miami (OH) L 71 - 73 28% -4  6% 12 - 9 4 - 7 C +1 C- -2 A- F F B- +3 D- A+ A-
 Sat, Feb 7 186 @South Alabama L 69 - 81 34% -18  2% 12 - 10 D -11 D -4 C F D- D- -6 F C B-
 Wed, Feb 11 292 @Ball St. W 63 - 53 56% +5  91% 13 - 10 5 - 7 B- +6 C +0 C C- C- A- +7 C+ C A+
 Tue, Feb 17 341 Northern Illinois L 70 - 72 88% -0  45% 13 - 11 5 - 8 F+ -17 D -6 D- D+ B- F -12 F C+ C+
 Sat, Feb 21 193 @Massachusetts W 86 - 82 OT 35% -2  25% 14 - 11 6 - 8 B- +5 B +7 B- B- B- C- -2 F A C+
 Tue, Feb 24 71 @Akron L 85 - 99 10% -8  23% 14 - 12 6 - 9 C- -3 C+ +2 F+ C B- C- -3 F A- A
 Sat, Feb 28 258 Central Michigan L 70 - 75 71% -5  26% 14 - 13 6 - 10 D- -14 D+ -3 C- C- A F -11 F D+ A
 Tue, Mar 3 248 Eastern Michigan W 72 - 67 68% +7  86% 15 - 13 7 - 10 C- -3 C- -1 C C B C- -2 B- C C-
 Fri, Mar 6 151 @Toledo L 76 - 82 27%
Totals 15 - 14 7 - 11 -3 C+ +1 D C+ C+ D -4 B C+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C C+ B C+ 38% 34% 44% C+ B- D B- C- C+ B- C+ B- D D D D- D- 40% 16% 44% D D- D+ B C C+ B- D- C+
1.11 57% 39% 37% +2 0 1.07 26% 1.1 .29 16% .33 74% .25 1.15 63% 42% 38% +5 +1 1.13 33% 0.9 .31 18% .28 76% .25
Nov
3		 Southern Miss A D- A+ A B+ 36% 7% 58% B+ B+ A D B- A A+ C A+ F D F D F 49% 13% 38% F F C+ F D B D+ F F
1.29 50% 67% 42% +6 +2 1.18 37% 0.9 .34 12% .62 69% .43 1.20 64% 67% 35% +7 +2 1.20 29% 1.3 .38 21% .39 95% .37
Nov
7		 Green Bay B+ B- B- A- B 49% 13% 38% A- B+ C- A C+ B+ A+ F A+ D- F F F F 38% 4% 58% F+ F A A+ A+ B- D D- F+
1.29 63% 40% 40% +6 +2 1.18 28% 1.3 .38 11% .72 66% .47 1.18 71% 50% 42% +12 +2 1.31 15% 0.5 .08 17% .39 81% .32
Nov
11		 DePaul C F B C+ D- 36% 32% 32% D+ D- D+ A+ B B A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ 32% 17% 51% C B D A+ A+ A+ F A+ C+
0.98 31% 43% 36% -7 -2 0.84 26% 1.3 .34 18% .49 70% .34 0.78 38% 14% 43% -3 0 0.95 34% 0.3 .11 30% .42 50% .21
Nov
18		 Vermont A- A A+ A+ A+ 41% 16% 43% B+ A+ F+ F F C+ A+ A+ A+ F D+ F F F 43% 8% 49% F F B+ F C- C+ F F F
1.29 70% 50% 43% +12 +1 1.29 19% 0.5 .10 12% .58 84% .48 1.23 64% 50% 48% +14 +2 1.33 19% 1.4 .26 16% .36 82% .30
Nov
24		 VMI D+ F A- B+ F+ 45% 5% 50% A+ D F+ B- D D A+ B- A+ D+ C- F A+ A- 30% 17% 53% B- B+ F F F F F+ C+ D-
1.17 50% 50% 40% +1 +2 1.10 31% 1.1 .34 18% .68 76% .51 1.05 56% 44% 18% -12 0 0.77 36% 1.2 .43 12% .34 70% .24
Nov
26		 Bucknell B- D- A A C 35% 8% 56% A- C+ D+ F F A B C- B F F A F+ F 40% 9% 51% F+ F F A+ D+ D+ B- A+ A
1.20 53% 50% 41% +5 +1 1.15 31% 0.6 .19 13% .36 74% .26 1.17 68% 25% 38% +6 +2 1.17 41% 0.8 .31 18% .24 58% .14
Nov
29		 Canisius C D C+ C D+ 23% 10% 67% C D+ F A+ C C+ C A+ B A B- F+ A+ A+ 40% 23% 36% D+ A B- F D C- C+ C C
1.10 55% 40% 34% 0 0 1.02 19% 1.7 .31 14% .31 82% .25 0.82 47% 45% 12% -15 0 0.72 23% 1.3 .29 19% .27 71% .19
Dec
6		 St. Bonaventure D- A D C B- 43% 13% 43% B+ B F+ A+ B F D- F F C- F+ B D D+ 36% 18% 47% D D F A- D- A+ C- F D
1.03 70% 33% 35% +5 +1 1.15 21% 1.8 .38 25% .22 64% .14 1.15 69% 38% 38% +7 0 1.16 52% 0.8 .42 25% .28 86% .24
Dec
9		 Maryland Baltimore Co. A A- A+ A+ A+ 50% 21% 29% C+ A+ B- F+ C- D A A+ A+ F+ D+ F D+ F 30% 23% 47% C+ F D F+ D- C+ A+ F A
1.25 67% 60% 43% +13 +1 1.29 31% 0.9 .27 15% .32 89% .28 1.19 63% 67% 36% +9 -1 1.19 27% 1.1 .31 17% .14 100% .14
Dec
14		 East Carolina D+ F A+ C F 39% 16% 45% B D- B F+ C D A+ B- A+ C A+ C+ A+ A+ 42% 21% 37% D- A D F F F F F+ F
1.02 35% 50% 35% -7 +1 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 19% .38 76% .29 1.06 41% 36% 21% -15 0 0.73 37% 1.2 .44 10% .49 77% .37
Dec
20		 Western Michigan A+ A- F C C+ 34% 8% 58% B- C+ C A+ A- A+ A- B+ A C C C C C- 35% 14% 51% F+ D+ C A+ A+ F A C- A-
1.34 71% 25% 34% +4 +1 1.12 30% 1.5 .45 6% .39 75% .29 1.08 55% 38% 34% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.4 .12 11% .20 75% .15
Dec
31		 Northern Illinois B- C F A+ B 43% 15% 43% C B B- A- B+ F A+ D+ A- C F F A+ C- 38% 4% 58% D- C- C- A B D+ B F D
1.19 60% 29% 45% +6 +1 1.17 34% 1.3 .44 21% .42 70% .29 0.98 68% 50% 24% -4 +2 0.98 30% 0.6 .18 21% .29 88% .26
Jan
3		 Ball St. A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 43% 9% 48% A A+ C+ A+ A+ D B+ A+ A+ F A B+ F+ D 31% 16% 53% C D F D- F B F F F
1.31 68% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.30 35% 1.8 .61 20% .35 94% .33 1.11 43% 29% 38% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.0 .37 19% .44 83% .36
Jan
10		 Ohio C D- A D+ D+ 41% 19% 41% C D+ C+ D+ C C+ B F C- F F F F F 43% 26% 32% C- F F F F A+ D F F
1.09 50% 50% 32% -2 0 0.98 35% 1.0 .35 15% .35 64% .22 1.24 75% 58% 40% +15 0 1.32 50% 1.3 .64 24% .36 85% .31
Jan
13		 Kent St. C+ C- F A C 38% 22% 40% C- C F A+ D+ A+ A D+ B+ F F A+ F F 44% 16% 40% D F D+ D D D+ A- D B+
1.15 57% 25% 41% +1 0 1.04 15% 1.7 .26 7% .41 70% .29 1.24 68% 13% 45% +7 +1 1.18 36% 1.2 .42 17% .31 78% .24
Jan
17		 Miami (OH) A C+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% C- A+ D F+ D- C- B+ A A D- F A+ F F 48% 10% 43% F F A A+ A+ D D+ A+ B-
1.22 62% 53% 50% +15 -1 1.30 24% 0.8 .18 18% .34 83% .28 1.26 76% 17% 46% +14 +2 1.34 15% 0.8 .12 13% .36 62% .22
Jan
20		 Akron F C- B- F F 30% 19% 52% D+ F+ C F D- C D D D C C+ B+ F D 29% 12% 59% C+ D+ B+ A+ A+ B F B- D-
0.90 56% 40% 25% -7 0 0.87 32% 0.7 .23 19% .23 69% .16 1.17 60% 33% 43% +8 +1 1.20 29% 1.0 .29 19% .33 74% .25
Jan
23		 Massachusetts D- A+ B- C B+ 23% 26% 51% F B- F A+ C- D+ F F F B- D A- B+ B- 36% 28% 36% B B D+ B C C+ B- B B
1.01 82% 42% 33% +6 -2 1.11 17% 1.6 .28 18% .26 50% .13 1.03 65% 31% 29% -2 -1 0.96 34% 1.1 .37 20% .30 63% .19
Jan
27		 Bowling Green A+ D A+ A+ A+ 40% 10% 50% B A+ D B+ C- A B+ B+ A- D- D+ A+ C- C 55% 12% 33% D- C- D F F D+ B+ A+ A
1.33 53% 60% 54% +15 +1 1.35 22% 1.2 .26 13% .38 77% .29 1.17 61% 17% 35% 0 +2 1.06 31% 1.4 .43 15% .26 60% .16
Jan
31		 Ohio C+ B A A A 48% 26% 26% C- A- F A+ C- D A+ D A+ F F F B+ F 46% 28% 26% C F F B- D F F F+ F
1.16 64% 50% 42% +9 0 1.20 22% 1.5 .33 18% .46 70% .32 1.33 72% 53% 29% +9 0 1.19 35% 0.9 .32 8% .40 77% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Miami (OH) C- A- C- A A 35% 17% 48% C+ A- B+ F F F A- B A- B- F F A- F+ 43% 20% 37% C D- B+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+
1.04 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 36% 0.2 .06 22% .34 78% .26 1.07 78% 64% 30% +12 0 1.26 18% 0.4 .07 19% .11 50% .05
Feb
7		 South Alabama D C F+ B- C+ 9% 18% 74% F C D- F F D- F F F D- B+ F F F 49% 10% 41% F+ F A- F C B- F B- D-
0.99 60% 30% 36% +1 -2 1.00 24% 0.8 .20 20% .11 67% .07 1.16 50% 80% 45% +7 +2 1.20 17% 1.6 .28 14% .40 63% .25
Feb
11		 Ball St. C C+ B- D C- 43% 12% 45% A- C C- C- C- C- A- A+ A+ A- A- A+ C+ B- 45% 11% 43% F C+ F+ A- C A+ A F B+
1.06 61% 40% 32% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.0 .32 19% .35 88% .31 0.90 45% 20% 32% -10 +2 0.86 31% 0.7 .23 22% .19 78% .15
Feb
17		 Northern Illinois D B- F D+ D- 45% 16% 39% C D- F A+ D+ B- D+ D+ D+ F C- A F F 31% 9% 60% C F C+ B- C+ C+ B F C
1.07 64% 13% 32% -3 +1 0.98 16% 2.0 .31 15% .31 71% .22 1.10 57% 25% 48% +11 +1 1.27 29% 0.8 .21 23% .30 73% .22
Feb
21		 Massachusetts B C- F A+ B 35% 19% 46% C- B- F+ A+ B- B- A+ C A C- F F F F 35% 24% 41% B- F D- A+ A C+ D- A C
1.19 59% 22% 45% +5 0 1.13 20% 1.7 .33 15% .49 73% .36 1.13 71% 58% 40% +13 -1 1.27 37% 0.7 .27 19% .38 59% .22
Feb
24		 Akron C+ C- F F F 45% 9% 45% A- F+ B D- C B- A+ A- A+ C- D- C F F 53% 9% 38% F F B B+ A- A F F F
1.06 56% 0% 28% -9 +2 0.89 38% 0.8 .31 17% .50 79% .39 1.23 68% 40% 45% +12 +2 1.30 30% 1.1 .33 21% .46 90% .41
Feb
28		 Central Michigan D+ B- F D+ D 48% 10% 42% B+ C- F A+ C- A F D F F C F F F 37% 23% 40% D+ F F A+ D+ A F F F
1.10 64% 0% 32% -2 +2 1.02 24% 1.6 .39 13% .16 67% .11 1.18 56% 50% 47% +10 0 1.21 45% 0.8 .35 24% .35 82% .29
Mar
3		 Eastern Michigan C- B- C C- C+ 32% 21% 47% D+ C F A+ C B A- B+ A C- B F A+ B+ 58% 22% 20% F B- A- F C C- D+ F D-
1.08 60% 40% 32% -1 -1 1.00 16% 1.8 .29 14% .38 77% .30 1.01 52% 45% 20% -6 +1 0.92 21% 1.3 .27 17% .29 81% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 12.4 12.4 6th
7th 72.9 14.7 87.6 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 72.9 27.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 27.1% 1.8% 1.8% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 26.6
7-11 72.9% 72.9
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.1 99.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 14.1 18.8 53.1 27.1 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.2%
Lose Out 72.9%