Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.1 314
Expected Predictive Rating -7.7 293
Pace 70.1 137
Improvement +1.1 137

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 342 D+ D+ F C+ B
Defense C- 236 D+ C- C+ D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 139 D- 51% 329 -1.9 253
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 330 C- 36% 226 -3.2 332
Three Pointers 47% 50 D+ 32% 270 +1.7 121
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.1 46 D -4.4 323
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 284
Second Chance C+ 31.8% 146 F+ 0.86 352 D+ 0.27 263
Turnovers F 22.0% 362
Freethrows B- 0.34 71 D- 67% 338 C+ 0.23 149
Total Offense D- -7.2 342

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 50 D 63% 314 -5.4 341
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 313 C 38% 183 +1.6 64
Three Pointers 40% 209 C+ 33% 142 +0.9 143
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +1.1 46 D+ -4.4 323
1st FG Attempt 1.08 274 D+ -2.9 276
Second Chance C- 32.2% 246 C- 1.06 237 C- 0.34 249
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 148
Freethrows D+ 0.34 293 C 72% 155 D+ 0.25 284
Total Defense C- -1.9 236

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 237 16.6 68
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 259 0.22 325
Improvement -4.3 #347 +5.4 #6

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 1% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 26% 8% 36%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Away) - 34.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 31 - 81 - 14
Quad 47 - 68 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 356 Louisiana Monroe W 102 - 82 79% +10  80% 1 - 0 C+ +2 A- +11 D+ A+ F F+ -10 F F+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 33 @Wisconsin L 72 - 97 2% -19  0% 1 - 1 D+ -8 C- -0 A+ F F D -6 B- F C
 Mon, Nov 10 69 @Grand Canyon L 59 - 88 4% -17  3% 1 - 2 F -18 F+ -9 D B F D- -8 D- F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 99 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 70 6% -3  26% 1 - 3 D+ -5 D+ -3 B D+ F D+ -4 F C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 276 @Loyola Chicago W 76 - 59 30% +9  85% 2 - 3 B+ +13 B+ +9 B+ B F+ B+ +7 C- A- B
 Tue, Nov 25 151 @Austin Peay L 59 - 77 13% -7  12% 2 - 4 F+ -15 F+ -9 F C- B- D -7 F F+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 244 Lindenwood L 64 - 99 44% -22  4% 2 - 5 F -43 F -17 D+ F F F -23 C+ F F
 Sat, Dec 6 119 @Bradley L 55 - 84 9% -14  8% 2 - 6 F -23 F -20 F C+ F C- -2 F+ C+ C-
 Sat, Dec 13 220 @Elon L 79 - 85 20% +4  90% 2 - 7 D+ -6 C- -1 D+ D+ D- D -6 D+ A F+
 Sat, Dec 20 297 Central Michigan W 74 - 73 56% -10  3% 3 - 7 1 - 0 D -10 D+ -4 F+ A- F D -6 C- F B-
 Wed, Dec 31 200 Buffalo L 67 - 81 36% -7  16% 3 - 8 1 - 1 F -20 F -12 F+ F D- D- -8 D F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 147 @Kent St. L 73 - 77 12% -9  0% 3 - 9 1 - 2 C -0 D -5 B+ C- F B +5 B- B+ C
 Tue, Jan 6 164 Toledo L 61 - 75 29% -11  4% 3 - 10 1 - 3 F+ -17 F -19 D D F B- +2 D+ A+ B
 Tue, Jan 13 231 @Eastern Michigan L 59 - 77 22% -3  44% 3 - 11 1 - 4 F -19 F -17 F+ F D- C -1 D+ A F+
 Sat, Jan 17 180 Massachusetts W 70 - 68 32% +3  75% 4 - 11 2 - 4 C- -2 F -11 F D D A- +8 A- A- A+
 Tue, Jan 20 203 @Ohio L 77 - 80 18% -5  15% 4 - 12 2 - 5 C- -3 C- -2 B F F C -1 D+ D B
 Sat, Jan 24 311 @Ball St. L 53 - 58 38% -6  0% 4 - 13 2 - 6 D -11 F -14 F C+ C B- +3 D+ C- D-
 Tue, Jan 27 295 Western Michigan W 85 - 65 56% +12  99% 5 - 13 3 - 6 B +9 A+ +15 A+ B D+ C- -2 C+ B C+
 Sat, Jan 31 86 @Miami (OH) L 61 - 85 5% -3  44% 5 - 14 3 - 7 F+ -15 F -15 C- F F C+ +1 C+ A D-
 Sat, Feb 7 272 @Georgia St. W 75 - 74 29% -1  38% 6 - 14 C- -2 C- -2 B- F D+ C -0 D A- F+
 Wed, Feb 11 158 Bowling Green L 52 - 68 29% -15  1% 6 - 15 3 - 8 F -19 F -23 F F C B- +3 D+ B A-
 Sat, Feb 14 297 @Central Michigan L 71 - 75 34%
 Tue, Feb 17 200 @Buffalo L 69 - 79 18%
 Sat, Feb 21 203 Ohio L 73 - 77 38%
 Tue, Feb 24 164 @Toledo L 69 - 81 14%
 Sat, Feb 28 311 Ball St. W 68 - 65 61%
 Tue, Mar 3 147 Kent St. L 73 - 80 26%
 Fri, Mar 6 72 @Akron L 68 - 88 3%
Totals 8 - 20 5 - 13 -9 F -7 C+ D B D+ -2 D+ D- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- D- C- D+ D 40% 13% 47% B D+ C+ F+ D+ F B- D- C+ C- D C C+ D+ 44% 16% 40% D D+ C- C- C- C+ D+ C D+
0.98 51% 36% 32% -4 +1 0.95 32% 0.9 .27 22% .34 67% .23 1.11 63% 38% 33% +2 +1 1.08 32% 1.1 .34 17% .34 72% .25
Nov
3		 Louisiana Monroe A- F+ A+ B- D 51% 4% 45% A D+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ B A+ F+ C F F F 40% 20% 40% D+ F B F F+ C D C D
1.36 52% 100% 36% +1 +3 1.10 61% 1.6 1.00 24% .46 73% .33 1.09 55% 50% 40% +5 0 1.12 19% 1.7 .32 17% .36 73% .26
Nov
7		 Wisconsin C- C+ A+ B+ A+ 42% 14% 44% A- A+ F+ F F F A+ D A+ D F F A C+ 29% 14% 57% B B- F F F C F C+ F
0.98 56% 83% 37% +7 +1 1.19 16% 0.5 .08 23% .55 68% .37 1.32 80% 57% 28% +4 0 1.10 42% 1.4 .58 12% .57 76% .43
Nov
10		 Grand Canyon F+ F F A+ D 36% 25% 39% C+ D D+ A+ B F A A A+ D- C- A+ F F+ 43% 16% 41% C- D- F F F A- C F F
0.82 31% 18% 41% -10 -1 0.80 23% 1.6 .35 29% .41 81% .33 1.22 62% 13% 45% +4 +1 1.12 54% 1.4 .73 21% .33 95% .32
Nov
18		 Northern Iowa D+ F A+ A+ C+ 54% 5% 41% A+ B B- F D+ F A D B+ D+ F F D+ F 48% 10% 43% D- F F A+ C A+ F B- F
0.92 41% 50% 41% -4 +3 1.00 27% 0.6 .17 24% .34 69% .23 1.13 74% 50% 35% +10 +2 1.25 31% 0.8 .23 24% .51 67% .34
Nov
21		 Loyola Chicago B+ C D- A B 32% 12% 56% B B+ A+ F B F+ F C+ F B+ B- A+ F+ C- 45% 6% 49% D- C- A B- A- B A+ A+ A+
1.24 56% 33% 43% +6 +1 1.16 46% 0.8 .38 16% .19 80% .16 0.96 52% 0% 39% -1 +2 1.04 24% 0.9 .21 21% .14 57% .08
Nov
25		 Austin Peay F+ A+ C- F F 38% 21% 40% C- F C- D+ C- B- C+ F F D F B F F 36% 14% 50% D F F+ D+ F+ C- F A+ D+
0.91 75% 36% 10% -9 0 0.85 29% 0.7 .20 17% .32 41% .13 1.19 75% 33% 41% +11 +1 1.25 33% 1.2 .41 15% .40 59% .24
Dec
2		 Lindenwood F F A+ A+ D- 57% 9% 35% A- D+ C+ F F F A+ F B F A B C- B 59% 13% 28% F C+ F F F F F D F
0.86 38% 50% 44% -5 +3 0.98 35% 0.3 .09 24% .53 50% .27 1.33 47% 29% 33% -8 +2 0.91 50% 1.7 .83 13% .44 71% .31
Dec
6		 Bradley F F F F F 36% 17% 47% A- F A F+ C+ F A+ F D C- F+ C- D F+ 41% 15% 44% F+ F+ A F C+ C- B- D C
0.76 47% 13% 18% -19 0 0.64 40% 0.8 .33 25% .44 46% .20 1.16 68% 38% 38% +6 +1 1.17 20% 1.3 .27 14% .30 79% .24
Dec
13		 Elon C- F+ F B D- 35% 8% 57% B+ D+ C+ D- D+ D- A+ B- A+ D F F A+ C- 57% 10% 33% D- D+ C- A+ A F+ F D+ F
1.12 47% 0% 39% -2 +1 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 18% .47 74% .35 1.20 71% 60% 19% +2 +3 1.12 34% 0.6 .22 13% .53 73% .39
Dec
20		 Central Michigan D+ C- A+ F F 51% 5% 44% A F+ B B+ A- F A+ B- A+ D C+ F A+ B- 53% 8% 39% F C- F F F B- B- A+ A-
1.12 57% 50% 22% -8 +3 0.93 41% 1.3 .55 24% .68 74% .50 1.10 56% 75% 25% -4 +3 1.00 41% 1.3 .53 20% .24 54% .13
Dec
31		 Buffalo F B+ A F F 38% 4% 58% B+ F+ D+ F F D- B- A+ A- D- C- A F D 43% 15% 43% D+ D F F F A- F B D
0.98 68% 50% 24% -4 +2 0.98 30% 0.6 .18 21% .29 88% .26 1.19 60% 29% 45% +7 +1 1.17 34% 1.3 .44 21% .42 70% .29
Jan
3		 Kent St. D C F+ A+ A- 29% 17% 55% C- B+ A F C- F A+ F A+ B D- F A+ B- 38% 18% 44% C B- C A+ B+ C F D+ F
1.00 58% 29% 43% +6 0 1.14 40% 0.7 .29 30% .59 60% .35 1.05 65% 50% 20% -5 0 0.93 35% 0.8 .30 19% .68 78% .52
Jan
6		 Toledo F D F C- F+ 38% 2% 60% B+ D C F D F D+ F D B- B- F F C- 58% 19% 23% F D+ B+ A+ A+ B D A+ C+
0.86 53% 0% 33% -3 +2 1.00 34% 0.8 .26 30% .22 64% .14 1.05 53% 60% 42% +4 +2 1.13 24% 0.5 .12 18% .33 63% .21
Jan
13		 Eastern Michigan F A- F F F 35% 16% 49% C+ F+ D- F F D- C+ F D- C F C- A+ D 36% 36% 28% A- D+ A+ D+ A F+ C+ F C
0.81 67% 13% 24% -8 0 0.86 23% 0.5 .11 19% .32 58% .19 1.06 76% 38% 25% +3 -2 1.03 15% 1.0 .15 14% .24 80% .19
Jan
17		 Massachusetts F D- F F F 43% 2% 55% A F A F D D A+ C- A+ A- A- A B+ A+ 49% 15% 36% F A- B+ A- A- A+ F D+ F
0.96 52% 0% 26% -10 +3 0.88 38% 0.6 .23 19% .51 70% .36 0.93 48% 29% 29% -9 +1 0.87 28% 1.0 .28 25% .55 70% .38
Jan
20		 Ohio C- F A A+ B- 45% 14% 41% B B C- F F F A+ C A+ C D A F+ D+ 42% 25% 33% C- D+ B+ F D B F C- F
1.06 40% 50% 50% +3 +1 1.11 32% 0.6 .19 23% .48 74% .36 1.10 65% 33% 38% +4 0 1.08 24% 1.4 .34 19% .42 72% .31
Jan
24		 Ball St. F C- A+ F F 27% 18% 56% C- F D A C+ C A- D+ B+ B- D- A+ A+ C- 49% 12% 40% F D+ A F C- D- D- A+ C-
0.89 58% 50% 8% -19 0 0.62 29% 1.3 .38 18% .35 76% .27 0.97 62% 20% 24% -6 +2 0.93 17% 1.4 .24 13% .35 61% .21
Jan
27		 Western Michigan A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 8% 56% B- A+ A+ F B D+ F F F C- B- A C- C+ 34% 17% 49% D+ C+ F A+ B C+ F F F
1.40 50% 75% 50% +14 +1 1.32 50% 0.9 .44 15% .19 60% .12 1.07 50% 29% 35% -4 0 0.95 42% 0.6 .25 18% .54 81% .44
Jan
31		 Miami (OH) F A- D+ F D+ 39% 16% 45% B C- F F F F C+ F F+ C+ D- F A+ C+ 42% 12% 46% D C+ D- A+ A D- C+ D+ C
0.83 70% 38% 26% -1 +1 1.02 17% 0.5 .09 23% .30 53% .16 1.16 71% 71% 27% +5 +1 1.14 29% 0.5 .14 12% .31 80% .25
Feb
7		 Georgia St. C- F A+ A+ B- 45% 12% 43% B B- F D- F D+ A C+ A- C F A+ A+ D 38% 27% 35% D D C A+ A- F+ F B+ F
1.05 41% 50% 48% +3 +2 1.10 18% 0.8 .15 18% .38 73% .27 1.03 78% 23% 24% -2 -1 0.96 27% 0.7 .19 13% .53 73% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
11		 Bowling Green F F+ B F F 37% 14% 49% C+ F F D+ F C D- C+ D B- D+ D C+ D+ 56% 14% 30% D D+ A+ F B A- A+ F A-
0.75 47% 43% 16% -16 +1 0.71 17% 1.0 .17 19% .26 73% .19 0.98 61% 43% 33% +2 +2 1.10 17% 1.0 .17 22% .20 82% .16



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.8 3.6 0.5 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 2.7 11.0 3.5 0.0 17.2 9th
10th 0.8 13.3 7.5 0.3 21.9 10th
11th 0.0 9.2 13.4 1.2 0.0 23.8 11th
12th 4.2 15.4 2.6 0.0 22.3 12th
13th 5.7 2.7 0.1 8.4 13th
Total 9.9 28.0 32.1 20.4 7.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.2% 0.2
8-10 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.6
7-11 7.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.8
6-12 20.4% 20.4
5-13 32.1% 32.1
4-14 28.0% 28.0
3-15 9.9% 9.9
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 9.9%