Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.2 100
Expected Predictive Rating +3.9 103
Pace 58.6 365
Improvement -1.6 259

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #230 C+ D- B F+ B-
Defense B+ #27 B+ A- C+ B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 55 62% 90 +4.5 40
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 262 41% 74 -1.1 237
Three Pointers 40% 205 32% 264 -1.7 243
1st FG Attempt 1.05 121 +1.7 122
Second Chance 21.7% 352 1.08 104 0.23 334
Turnovers 14.6% 46
Freethrows 0.24 340 67% 325 0.16 352
Total Offense -2.3 230

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 226 55% 94 +2.0 109
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 181 36% 99 +0.4 153
Three Pointers 42% 130 28% 5 +3.3 50
1st FG Attempt 0.90 36 +5.7 36
Second Chance 24.6% 21 0.88 25 0.22 10
Turnovers 17.5% 139
Freethrows 0.26 48 72% 149 0.19 50
Total Defense +7.5 27

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.9 66 -0.1 149
Shot Type Accuracy +0.8 145 -5.5 23
Possession Length 19.0 334 18.6 342
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 356 0.13 45
Improvement -0.4 #209 -1.3 #261

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16% 19% 15%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.1 11.9 12.3
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 96% 100% 95%
Conference Champion 2% 6% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round16% 19% 15%
Second Round2% 3% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Belmont (Away) - 31.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 53 - 7
Quad 37 - 511 - 12
Quad 49 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 186 Cal St. Northridge W 86 - 57 82% +17  92% 1 - 0 A+ +24 B +6 A- D+ B- A+ +18 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 193 South Dakota St. W 65 - 58 83% +4  78% 2 - 0 C+ +2 D- -7 B F D+ A- +9 B- C A+
 Fri, Nov 14 176 Furman W 70 - 54 81% +10  90% 3 - 0 B+ +12 C -0 B+ F A- A+ +14 A+ A C+
 Tue, Nov 18 314 Northern Illinois W 70 - 57 94% +3  66% 4 - 0 C +1 C +0 A F+ F B- +2 D+ A B
 Sat, Nov 22 119 @UC Irvine W 70 - 69 OT 47% +3  65% 5 - 0 B- +7 C +1 C+ F A+ B+ +6 A- C- F+
 Tue, Nov 25 277 Loyola Chicago W 72 - 51 86% +18  98% 6 - 0 B+ +14 C+ +2 C+ F+ A+ A+ +15 A+ C+ C-
 Wed, Nov 26 70 Tulsa L 60 - 63 39% -3  14% 6 - 1 B- +5 F+ -8 D- D+ B- A+ +13 A- A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 96 Wichita St. L 69 - 74 OT 61% -2  34% 6 - 2 C- -3 D -5 B- F A+ C+ +2 D B+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 143 Oakland W 75 - 63 75% +5  77% 7 - 2 B +10 D- -8 C- F A A+ +17 A- A A+
 Wed, Dec 17 137 @Illinois-Chicago W 60 - 54 53% +2  58% 8 - 2 1 - 0 B +10 D+ -3 A- F F+ A+ +14 A+ B D-
 Mon, Dec 22 40 @St. Mary's L 58 - 63 15% +2  77% 8 - 3 B +11 C- -1 B D+ B A +11 A+ D- B-
 Mon, Dec 29 155 Valparaiso W 58 - 48 78% +3  79% 9 - 3 2 - 0 B- +7 D -5 C+ D+ C A+ +14 A+ A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 1 197 Indiana St. W 75 - 66 84% +1  57% 10 - 3 3 - 0 C+ +4 B- +4 B B+ C+ C+ +0 F+ A+ D+
 Sun, Jan 4 273 @Evansville W 62 - 48 79% +12  91% 11 - 3 4 - 0 B +11 D- -7 B F F A+ +19 A- A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 7 78 Belmont L 65 - 78 53% -8  4% 11 - 4 4 - 1 D -9 C+ +2 C D- A+ F -13 F B F
 Sat, Jan 10 120 @Bradley L 69 - 75 48% -2  15% 11 - 5 4 - 2 C -0 C- -1 D+ D- A+ C +0 C B F
 Tue, Jan 13 137 Illinois-Chicago L 61 - 69 74% -0  44% 11 - 6 4 - 3 D -10 D- -6 F B- B+ D+ -4 F+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 17 155 @Valparaiso L 44 - 54 58% -2  29% 11 - 7 4 - 4 D+ -7 F -20 F F+ A- A +11 A+ B- F+
 Wed, Jan 21 94 @Illinois St. L 54 - 59 38% -5  5% 11 - 8 4 - 5 C+ +3 F -12 F C B+ A+ +15 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 24 112 Murray St. W 81 - 76 68% +4  68% 12 - 8 5 - 5 B- +5 B +7 A+ F+ A- C -1 A D- D+
 Wed, Jan 28 127 @Southern Illinois L 50 - 65 51% -6  16% 12 - 9 5 - 6 D -10 F -15 D+ F F B +4 D A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 273 Evansville W 71 - 55 91% +16  92% 13 - 9 6 - 6 B- +7 B +7 B+ A D B- +3 B C+ F
 Fri, Feb 6 120 Bradley W 61 - 49 70% +7  86% 14 - 9 7 - 6 B+ +12 D -4 D B- A A+ +18 A- A+ A+
 Mon, Feb 9 112 @Murray St. W 89 - 60 45% +13  96% 15 - 9 8 - 6 A+ +35 A+ +20 A+ B- A+ A+ +18 A+ A+ D+
 Thu, Feb 12 78 @Belmont L 65 - 70 32%
 Sun, Feb 15 177 Drake W 69 - 60 81%
 Wed, Feb 18 197 @Indiana St. W 67 - 62 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 127 Southern Illinois W 65 - 59 71%
 Wed, Feb 25 94 Illinois St. W 64 - 61 60%
 Sun, Mar 1 177 @Drake W 66 - 63 62%
Totals 19 - 11 12 - 8 +5 C- -2 C+ D- B B+ +7 B+ A- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B- B- D+ C+ 43% 16% 40% B- C+ F+ C+ D- B D- D- F+ B+ B- B- A A- 37% 21% 42% C B+ A- B+ A- C+ B C B
1.05 62% 41% 32% +1 +1 1.05 22% 1.1 .23 15% .24 67% .16 0.98 55% 36% 28% -6 0 0.90 25% 0.9 .22 18% .26 72% .18
Nov
6		 Cal St. Northridge B A- F B+ B+ 42% 8% 49% A- A- F A+ D+ B- F B+ F A+ A+ D+ B+ A+ 36% 21% 43% A- A+ B A+ A+ A+ F F F
1.20 68% 20% 38% +6 +2 1.17 18% 1.5 .27 14% .16 80% .13 0.79 29% 40% 30% -12 0 0.77 29% 0.5 .13 28% .44 74% .33
Nov
9		 South Dakota St. D- B F C+ C+ 57% 5% 39% A+ B F F F D+ A F C- A- F+ C+ A+ B 39% 20% 41% C B- F A+ C A+ D+ B+ C
1.02 64% 0% 35% +2 +3 1.14 16% 0.8 .13 17% .38 55% .21 0.91 69% 38% 24% -2 0 0.98 40% 0.8 .30 27% .30 64% .19
Nov
14		 Furman C B A+ D- B 45% 19% 36% B B+ F F F A- B+ A+ A A+ F D- A+ A+ 39% 4% 57% F+ A+ A A A C+ B+ A+ A
1.09 62% 56% 29% +3 +1 1.09 22% 0.7 .16 11% .30 82% .24 0.84 74% 50% 14% -10 +2 0.86 22% 0.8 .17 20% .22 55% .12
Nov
18		 Northern Illinois C A A+ B- A 48% 10% 43% B A C- F F+ F A+ D- A+ B- A F F C 54% 5% 41% F D+ B+ A A B C C- C
1.13 74% 50% 35% +10 +2 1.25 31% 0.8 .23 24% .51 67% .34 0.92 41% 50% 41% -4 +3 1.00 27% 0.6 .17 24% .34 69% .23
Nov
22		 UC Irvine C F+ A- C C+ 35% 21% 44% C+ C+ F+ F F A+ F C- F B+ B A C B+ 44% 38% 18% B+ A- A- F C- F+ F A- D-
0.98 41% 46% 33% -5 0 0.92 24% 0.5 .12 11% .16 70% .11 0.96 50% 26% 33% -8 -2 0.82 25% 1.4 .35 13% .42 62% .26
Nov
25		 Loyola Chicago C+ C+ C+ B B- 27% 23% 50% D+ C+ F A+ F+ A+ D+ F F+ A+ A+ A C+ A+ 34% 16% 50% B A+ C+ C C+ C- C A B
1.17 57% 42% 38% +4 -1 1.08 12% 1.8 .21 5% .26 67% .17 0.83 20% 29% 32% -16 0 0.70 32% 0.9 .29 18% .30 60% .18
Nov
26		 Tulsa F+ B- F F F+ 41% 20% 39% C+ D- D- A- D+ B- F D+ F A+ C- B B B+ 33% 13% 54% A- A- A+ C+ A+ C+ B+ F C
0.95 62% 20% 25% -7 0 0.88 19% 1.3 .25 14% .19 70% .13 1.00 60% 33% 32% -1 +1 1.00 13% 1.3 .17 16% .28 93% .26
Dec
6		 Wichita St. D C- A+ F C 58% 17% 25% A+ B- D- F F A+ A- F C C+ D- A D- D- 35% 22% 43% B D A- C+ B+ A C+ F D+
0.98 55% 56% 23% -3 +2 1.00 22% 0.5 .11 11% .35 55% .19 1.05 65% 27% 38% +3 -1 1.06 32% 1.0 .32 20% .30 76% .23
Dec
13		 Oakland D- C D D+ D+ 48% 15% 37% A- C- F F+ F A A+ F A A+ B+ B A+ A+ 62% 6% 33% F A- A B A A+ C A+ B+
1.03 60% 38% 32% 0 +1 1.04 22% 0.8 .16 11% .42 59% .25 0.86 50% 33% 24% -10 +4 0.88 23% 1.0 .23 23% .34 63% .21
Dec
17		 Illinois-Chicago D+ C- A A A+ 21% 26% 52% F A- F+ F F F+ F+ A D A+ B A+ A+ A+ 48% 16% 36% F+ A+ B+ C+ B D- A+ A A+
0.98 56% 45% 41% +7 -2 1.12 29% 0.8 .21 24% .24 82% .19 0.88 50% 13% 17% -17 +1 0.70 31% 1.0 .31 15% .21 64% .13
Dec
22		 St. Mary's C- D+ A C- B- 42% 21% 37% B- B F A+ D+ B F B- F A A+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 21% 40% C+ A+ D+ D D- B- F F F
0.94 50% 45% 32% -3 0 0.96 10% 1.7 .17 13% .07 75% .06 1.02 41% 11% 18% -22 0 0.58 41% 1.2 .49 18% .53 93% .49
Dec
29		 Valparaiso D C- D- C C- 53% 18% 30% B+ C+ F A+ D+ C A- A A A+ A- D+ A+ A+ 40% 21% 38% F A+ D A+ A+ D+ A- F B-
1.01 57% 29% 33% -2 +1 1.00 15% 1.5 .23 17% .38 78% .29 0.83 47% 40% 17% -14 0 0.74 35% 0.3 .09 14% .28 79% .22
Jan
1		 Indiana St. B- B- A+ F C+ 65% 12% 22% A+ B C A B+ C+ C+ F+ C C+ F F A F+ 49% 6% 45% D+ F+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+
1.16 59% 83% 18% +1 +3 1.10 33% 1.2 .40 14% .27 67% .18 1.02 81% 67% 25% +7 +3 1.21 7% 0.0 .00 17% .07 50% .04
Jan
4		 Evansville D- F B A+ B+ 30% 21% 49% C B F F F F D- F F+ A+ F C+ A+ A 42% 26% 33% D- A- A+ B- A+ A- B- B- B-
0.97 46% 44% 48% +8 -1 1.16 21% 0.8 .17 25% .23 64% .15 0.75 72% 36% 7% -8 0 0.86 7% 1.0 .07 24% .27 69% .18
Jan
7		 Belmont C+ A F D+ C- 29% 8% 63% B+ C F B D- A+ F D- F F F+ F F F 49% 9% 42% D F A F+ B F C+ A+ A-
1.11 67% 0% 31% -3 +1 0.98 22% 1.1 .24 5% .18 70% .13 1.33 73% 50% 47% +17 +2 1.40 22% 1.4 .30 10% .29 53% .15
Jan
10		 Bradley C- D+ C C C- 24% 33% 43% D D+ F A+ D- A+ D+ F F+ C F F+ B+ C- 26% 28% 46% A- C B B- B F F A+ D-
1.03 54% 39% 35% 0 -3 0.96 16% 1.3 .21 7% .29 61% .18 1.12 69% 43% 30% +2 -2 1.02 23% 1.0 .23 7% .45 64% .29
Jan
13		 Illinois-Chicago D- C+ D+ F F 39% 14% 48% B- F D+ A B- B+ C A+ B D+ F F+ A+ F 45% 27% 29% C+ F+ A+ F A- F C+ A+ A-
0.97 59% 33% 14% -14 +1 0.75 33% 1.2 .39 18% .31 88% .27 1.10 73% 46% 21% +3 0 1.08 17% 1.6 .28 10% .32 56% .18
Jan
17		 Valparaiso F B+ F F F 38% 29% 33% D F F+ F+ F+ A- F F F A A A- A+ A+ 21% 42% 37% A+ A+ A F B- F+ D+ D D
0.75 67% 7% 19% -13 -1 0.73 24% 0.7 .17 14% .14 29% .04 0.92 44% 28% 25% -12 -4 0.70 23% 1.3 .29 12% .39 75% .29
Jan
21		 Illinois St. F F C F F 33% 33% 35% D F F+ A+ C B+ D- A D+ A+ A C A A+ 20% 20% 61% B A+ D B C A+ F F F
0.84 41% 35% 17% -15 -2 0.67 18% 1.3 .23 14% .25 79% .20 0.91 50% 38% 28% -7 -1 0.85 31% 1.0 .31 26% .38 89% .34
Jan
24		 Murray St. B A+ B+ A+ A+ 55% 22% 22% B+ A+ F D+ F+ A- A- F C C D A+ A- A 33% 25% 41% A A D D+ D- D+ C- F D-
1.22 70% 45% 45% +12 +1 1.29 22% 1.0 .22 12% .36 57% .21 1.15 65% 23% 29% -5 -1 0.90 36% 1.2 .44 14% .35 85% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Southern Illinois F D+ D F D- 51% 13% 36% A D+ F F F F D+ F D- B B F F F+ 31% 39% 31% A+ D A- A+ A+ D+ D+ A+ B+
0.76 52% 33% 25% -8 +2 0.89 10% 0.7 .06 26% .27 62% .16 0.99 53% 53% 40% +7 -3 1.10 24% 0.4 .09 15% .34 47% .16
Jan
31		 Evansville B A+ A D- B+ 31% 16% 53% B- B+ D+ A+ A D F B- F B- C- F A+ B- 17% 30% 52% A- B B D C+ F A+ F A+
1.22 87% 50% 31% +8 0 1.18 28% 1.7 .48 19% .08 75% .06 0.95 63% 50% 25% -3 -3 0.91 19% 1.2 .23 14% .14 86% .12
Feb
6		 Bradley D D+ B+ F F+ 50% 20% 30% A D C- A B- A D+ C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ 33% 13% 54% D- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ B- F D
1.02 55% 44% 23% -5 +1 0.93 29% 1.2 .35 15% .30 73% .22 0.82 31% 20% 38% -8 +1 0.87 14% 0.8 .11 27% .30 92% .27
Feb
9		 Murray St. A+ A A+ A A+ 48% 22% 29% B- A+ C+ B- B- A+ F A+ F A+ A+ F A+ A+ 41% 17% 43% C- A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A- A+
1.36 68% 69% 41% +15 0 1.33 35% 1.1 .38 9% .03 100% .03 0.92 45% 67% 22% -8 +1 0.87 22% 0.9 .19 14% .18 70% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.8 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 3.0 11.6 3.4 18.0 2nd
3rd 0.9 14.6 8.6 0.3 24.4 3rd
4th 0.1 7.7 13.0 0.8 21.6 4th
5th 2.3 12.3 2.3 0.0 16.8 5th
6th 0.3 6.6 4.0 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 1.6 2.7 0.1 4.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 0.1 1.5 8th
9th 0.2 0.2 0.4 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.3 3.3 11.9 24.9 32.9 21.3 5.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 32.8% 1.8    0.1 0.9 0.6 0.1
13-7 1.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 5.4% 26.9% 26.5% 0.4% 11.5 0.7 0.8 0.0 4.0 0.5%
13-7 21.3% 21.9% 21.9% 11.9 0.7 3.6 0.4 0.0 16.7
12-8 32.9% 17.7% 17.7% 12.2 0.3 4.2 1.2 0.1 27.1
11-9 24.9% 12.0% 12.0% 12.4 0.0 1.8 1.1 0.0 21.9
10-10 11.9% 8.1% 8.1% 12.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 10.9
9-11 3.3% 8.1% 8.1% 13.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.1
8-12 0.3% 3.2% 3.2% 14.0 0.0 0.3
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.2% 16.1% 0.0% 12.1 83.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 11.6 45.5 53.8 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 1.1% 11.0 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6%