Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#111
Expected Predictive Rating+4.4#113
Pace76.6#36
Improvement+1.2#101

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#87
First Shot+2.4#111
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#118
Layup/Dunks+0.3#164
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#224
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#132
Freethrows+1.6#91
Improvement+0.2#160

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#162
First Shot+0.5#159
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#209
Layups/Dunks-2.7#283
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#293
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#33
Freethrows+0.0#183
Improvement+1.0#108
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.6% 14.6% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.0 12.5
.500 or above 89.2% 96.0% 86.6%
.500 or above in Conference 78.9% 84.9% 76.6%
Conference Champion 14.1% 18.6% 12.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.6% 1.4%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round11.6% 14.5% 10.5%
Second Round1.6% 2.4% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Akron (Neutral) - 27.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 53 - 7
Quad 36 - 59 - 12
Quad 411 - 120 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 233 Nebraska Omaha W 85-77 77%     1 - 0 +3.8 -1.3 +4.2
  Fri, Nov 7 365 Mississippi Valley W 108-60 99%     2 - 0 +22.9 +14.6 +3.7
  Tue, Nov 11 40 @SMU L 91-102 15%     2 - 1 +4.0 +12.1 -6.6
  Sat, Nov 15 254 Nicholls St. W 99-79 86%     3 - 1 +11.8 +16.1 -5.8
  Tue, Nov 18 315 Arkansas Little Rock W 89-68 92%     4 - 1 +9.4 +16.0 -5.5
  Sun, Nov 23 136 Middle Tennessee L 87-90 58%     4 - 2 -1.3 +8.1 -9.1
  Mon, Nov 24 80 McNeese St. L 60-73 37%     4 - 3 -5.9 -12.0 +6.9
  Tue, Nov 25 59 George Washington W 96-95 29%     5 - 3 +10.5 +20.5 -10.0
  Tue, Dec 2 325 Morehead St. W 84-52 93%     6 - 3 +19.3 +8.4 +12.2
  Sat, Dec 6 292 Bellarmine W 81-68 90%     7 - 3 +2.7 +5.1 -1.5
  Sat, Dec 13 54 Akron L 85-91 27%    
  Thu, Dec 18 124 Drake W 77-73 65%    
  Sun, Dec 21 211 @Valparaiso W 77-73 65%    
  Mon, Dec 29 143 Southern Illinois W 83-77 70%    
  Thu, Jan 1 204 @Illinois-Chicago W 81-78 62%    
  Sun, Jan 4 115 Bradley W 78-75 62%    
  Wed, Jan 7 265 @Evansville W 79-73 72%    
  Sat, Jan 10 211 Valparaiso W 80-70 82%    
  Sat, Jan 17 198 Indiana St. W 86-77 80%    
  Wed, Jan 21 124 @Drake L 74-76 44%    
  Sat, Jan 24 98 @Northern Iowa L 69-73 34%    
  Wed, Jan 28 92 Illinois St. W 78-77 53%    
  Sat, Jan 31 90 @Belmont L 79-84 32%    
  Tue, Feb 3 204 Illinois-Chicago W 84-75 80%    
  Fri, Feb 6 143 @Southern Illinois L 79-80 48%    
  Mon, Feb 9 98 Northern Iowa W 72-70 56%    
  Thu, Feb 12 198 @Indiana St. W 83-80 62%    
  Sun, Feb 15 90 Belmont W 82-81 53%    
  Wed, Feb 18 92 @Illinois St. L 75-80 32%    
  Sat, Feb 21 265 Evansville W 82-70 86%    
  Sun, Mar 1 115 @Bradley L 75-78 41%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.7 3.8 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 14.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.5 5.4 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 14.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.2 5.8 3.1 0.7 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.1 6.1 2.9 0.4 0.0 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.5 5.5 2.5 0.3 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.8 2.1 0.2 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.5 1.6 0.2 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.4 1.1 0.1 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.6 0.1 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.7 5.8 8.1 10.9 12.9 13.9 13.0 10.9 7.9 5.1 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 99.2% 1.2    1.1 0.0
17-3 90.3% 2.5    2.1 0.3 0.0
16-4 75.1% 3.8    2.6 1.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 47.2% 3.7    1.7 1.6 0.4 0.0
14-6 18.2% 2.0    0.5 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.1% 14.1 8.5 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 45.1% 38.2% 6.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 11.1%
18-2 1.2% 34.0% 32.9% 1.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.8 1.7%
17-3 2.7% 31.3% 30.9% 0.4% 11.7 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.5%
16-4 5.1% 25.8% 25.6% 0.1% 11.9 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.8 0.2%
15-5 7.9% 21.1% 21.1% 12.1 0.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.2
14-6 10.9% 17.6% 17.6% 12.3 0.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 9.0
13-7 13.0% 14.2% 14.2% 12.4 0.0 1.1 0.7 0.1 11.2
12-8 13.9% 10.2% 10.2% 12.6 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 12.4
11-9 12.9% 7.9% 7.9% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 11.9
10-10 10.9% 5.0% 5.0% 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.4
9-11 8.1% 3.3% 3.3% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.9
8-12 5.8% 1.9% 1.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.7
7-13 3.7% 1.3% 1.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
6-14 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.9
5-15 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 11.6% 11.6% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 6.0 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 88.4 0.1%