Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#219
Expected Predictive Rating-5.0#245
Pace67.4#237
Improvement+2.5#50

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#256
First Shot-5.2#322
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#58
Layup/Dunks-6.9#353
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#21
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#262
Freethrows-0.4#208
Improvement+2.5#31

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#180
First Shot+0.7#144
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#277
Layups/Dunks-1.2#225
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#186
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#60
Freethrows-1.7#294
Improvement+0.0#179
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.1 15.0
.500 or above 6.6% 17.7% 5.1%
.500 or above in Conference 7.9% 20.6% 6.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 28.4% 13.9% 30.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Away) - 11.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 61 - 9
Quad 33 - 83 - 17
Quad 48 - 311 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 325 Eastern Illinois W 66-63 81%     1 - 0 -9.8 -11.3 +1.4
  Fri, Nov 7 20 @Kentucky L 59-107 3%     1 - 1 -28.8 -8.2 -17.4
  Wed, Nov 12 234 Nicholls St. W 68-63 64%     2 - 1 -2.4 +0.0 -1.8
  Sun, Nov 16 311 Bryant W 68-50 78%     3 - 1 +6.2 -1.6 +9.8
  Wed, Nov 19 334 @Cleveland St. W 90-75 64%     4 - 1 +7.5 +11.8 -4.2
  Wed, Nov 26 339 Southern Indiana L 56-64 84%     4 - 2 -22.4 -21.8 -0.6
  Sat, Nov 29 280 Western Michigan W 84-55 71%     5 - 2 +19.7 +11.7 +10.2
  Tue, Dec 2 105 @Marquette L 72-75 OT 15%     5 - 3 +4.4 -2.5 +7.1
  Sat, Dec 13 120 UNC Wilmington L 70-73 36%     5 - 4 -3.2 +2.8 -6.3
  Tue, Dec 16 57 @Northwestern L 70-86 8%     5 - 5 -4.0 +3.8 -8.2
  Sun, Dec 21 100 Murray St. L 79-85 28%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -3.7 +2.5 -6.1
  Mon, Dec 29 93 @Northern Iowa L 56-69 12%    
  Thu, Jan 1 130 @Southern Illinois L 68-77 20%    
  Sun, Jan 4 200 Illinois-Chicago W 73-71 56%    
  Wed, Jan 7 82 Illinois St. L 67-75 24%    
  Sat, Jan 10 100 @Murray St. L 72-84 13%    
  Tue, Jan 13 69 @Belmont L 68-83 9%    
  Sat, Jan 17 93 Northern Iowa L 59-66 27%    
  Wed, Jan 21 130 Southern Illinois L 71-74 40%    
  Wed, Jan 28 69 Belmont L 71-80 22%    
  Sat, Jan 31 201 @Indiana St. L 71-75 35%    
  Tue, Feb 3 108 @Bradley L 64-75 16%    
  Fri, Feb 6 252 Evansville W 71-67 66%    
  Mon, Feb 9 143 @Drake L 65-73 23%    
  Thu, Feb 12 82 @Illinois St. L 64-78 11%    
  Sun, Feb 15 201 Indiana St. W 74-72 56%    
  Wed, Feb 18 108 Bradley L 67-72 34%    
  Sat, Feb 21 200 @Illinois-Chicago L 70-74 35%    
  Wed, Feb 25 143 Drake L 68-70 43%    
  Sat, Feb 28 252 @Evansville L 68-70 44%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 1.8 0.6 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.4 3.0 0.8 0.0 11.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 4.2 6.5 3.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 16.6 8th
9th 0.2 2.0 6.4 7.7 3.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 20.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.5 7.3 7.5 2.9 0.4 0.0 22.3 10th
11th 0.4 2.1 4.7 5.8 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 18.4 11th
Total 0.4 2.2 5.4 9.5 13.3 16.1 15.3 13.0 10.1 6.7 4.0 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 83.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 57.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 15.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 3.3% 3.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 0.5% 5.1% 5.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-8 1.0% 3.4% 3.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
11-9 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
10-10 4.0% 1.6% 1.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9
9-11 6.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.1 0.1 0.0 6.6
8-12 10.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 10.1
7-13 13.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.0
6-14 15.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.3
5-15 16.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.1
4-16 13.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.3
3-17 9.5% 9.5
2-18 5.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.4
1-19 2.2% 2.2
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%