Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.4 163
Expected Predictive Rating +0.5 153
Pace 65.1 276
Improvement +3.5 54

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 222 D C+ B- B- F+
Defense C+ 125 C+ B- C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 332 D+ 55% 252 -4.7 333
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 23 D 34% 305 +2.6 60
Three Pointers 37% 259 C- 33% 206 -2.3 263
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ -1.7 347 D+ -2.6 272
1st FG Attempt D 0.93 310
Second Chance C+ 31.5% 154 C+ 1.06 127 C+ 0.33 124
Turnovers B- 15.5% 94
Freethrows B 0.34 66 C- 71% 228 B- 0.24 100
Total Offense C- -1.9 222

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 137 C- 60% 247 -1.9 249
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 119 A 31% 10 +1.0 114
Three Pointers 38% 273 C+ 32% 112 +2.5 77
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -1.7 347 C+ -2.6 272
1st FG Attempt 0.99 126 C+ +1.5 126
Second Chance C- 31.3% 213 A- 0.88 21 B- 0.27 76
Turnovers C 17.2% 167
Freethrows C 0.31 211 C+ 71% 120 C 0.22 194
Total Defense C+ +1.6 125

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.1 256 17.6 237
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 360 0.15 95
Improvement +2.6 #58 +1.0 #122

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 14.6
.500 or above 49% 60% 24%
.500 or above in Conference 59% 72% 31%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 3% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Home) - 67.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 81 - 11
Quad 36 - 37 - 14
Quad 49 - 216 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 326 Eastern Illinois W 66 - 63 88% +5  87% 1 - 0 D -10 F -12 F C- C- C+ +1 D A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 24 @Kentucky L 59 - 107 5% -31  0% 1 - 1 F -29 F -11 F D+ A- F -14 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 267 Nicholls St. W 68 - 63 79% +3  85% 2 - 1 C- -4 D -4 F+ D- A+ C+ +1 C F A+
 Sun, Nov 16 350 Bryant W 68 - 50 92% +4  70% 3 - 1 C+ +2 D- -7 F B- B A +11 A+ D+ C-
 Wed, Nov 19 306 @Cleveland St. W 90 - 75 69% +12  95% 4 - 1 B +10 B+ +9 B- B B C+ +1 B- B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 338 Southern Indiana L 56 - 64 90% -6  3% 4 - 2 F -23 F -23 F D+ B+ C+ +0 D F+ A-
 Sat, Nov 29 295 Western Michigan W 84 - 55 83% +14  93% 5 - 2 A +18 B +7 C+ A D A+ +13 A+ D- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 85 @Marquette L 72 - 75 OT 18% +2  62% 5 - 3 B- +7 D -4 B- C F A +11 A A B+
 Sat, Dec 13 112 UNC Wilmington L 70 - 73 47% +2  49% 5 - 4 C- -3 C +1 F A A D+ -4 A- F+ C-
 Tue, Dec 16 64 @Northwestern L 70 - 86 14% -12  0% 5 - 5 C- -5 C +1 B- B+ F D -6 F+ C- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 111 Murray St. L 79 - 85 47% +2  62% 5 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -6 C- -2 C+ C C+ D+ -4 F+ A+ C-
 Mon, Dec 29 99 @Northern Iowa L 48 - 58 21% -3  10% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C- -2 F+ -9 F F+ A- B +5 B- C B
 Thu, Jan 1 122 @Southern Illinois L 70 - 75 29% -5  20% 5 - 8 0 - 3 C +0 D+ -3 F F+ A+ B- +4 A- C+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 128 Illinois-Chicago W 66 - 59 52% -1  38% 6 - 8 1 - 3 B- +6 C +0 D D+ B+ B+ +7 B- C+ A+
 Wed, Jan 7 90 Illinois St. W 77 - 71 38% +5  76% 7 - 8 2 - 3 B +9 A- +10 A+ F C C -1 A- D+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 111 @Murray St. L 79 - 92 26% -6  15% 7 - 9 2 - 4 D+ -7 C- -2 B- D+ F D+ -4 F A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 78 @Belmont L 74 - 78 16% -3  10% 7 - 10 2 - 5 B- +6 B +6 D+ A+ C+ C -0 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 99 Northern Iowa W 54 - 44 40% +2  65% 8 - 10 3 - 5 B+ +12 D -6 F B A+ A+ +20 A+ B+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 122 Southern Illinois W 69 - 63 51% +11  85% 9 - 10 4 - 5 B- +5 B- +4 A- D A- C+ +2 A- B- C+
 Wed, Jan 28 78 Belmont L 77 - 78 32% -2  31% 9 - 11 4 - 6 C+ +3 C+ +3 B F A C+ +1 D+ C- B+
 Sat, Jan 31 198 @Indiana St. W 76 - 72 OT 46% -3  13% 10 - 11 5 - 6 C+ +5 C +0 D- C+ B+ B +4 C+ A- D+
 Tue, Feb 3 119 @Bradley L 65 - 72 28% -5  10% 10 - 12 5 - 7 C -1 D+ -3 D A- C+ C+ +1 D A B
 Fri, Feb 6 275 Evansville W 70 - 63 OT 81% +1  68% 11 - 12 6 - 7 C- -3 F+ -8 F A+ F+ B +5 C A C-
 Mon, Feb 9 182 @Drake W 81 - 76 42% -0  32% 12 - 12 7 - 7 B- +7 B+ +9 B- A+ D+ C- -2 A F F
 Thu, Feb 12 90 @Illinois St. L 64 - 86 19% -4  33% 12 - 13 7 - 8 D- -13 D -4 F A A F+ -9 F+ C+ D+
 Sun, Feb 15 198 Indiana St. W 73 - 68 68%
 Wed, Feb 18 119 Bradley L 70 - 71 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 128 @Illinois-Chicago L 65 - 70 31%
 Wed, Feb 25 182 Drake W 73 - 69 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 275 @Evansville W 70 - 67 62%
Totals 15 - 15 10 - 10 +0 F -2 D D+ F+ C+ +2 C- C- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ D C- D+ 32% 31% 37% F+ D C+ C+ C+ B- B C- B- C+ C- A C+ C+ 40% 22% 38% C C+ C- A- B- C C C+ C
1.06 55% 34% 33% -3 -2 0.93 31% 1.1 .33 16% .34 71% .24 1.06 60% 31% 32% -1 0 0.99 31% 0.9 .27 17% .31 71% .24
Nov
4		 Eastern Illinois F C- F F F 27% 9% 64% C F C- C- C- C- A+ F A+ C+ F C+ B+ F 34% 47% 18% A+ D F+ A+ A+ A+ F F+ F
0.94 58% 0% 18% -19 +1 0.66 34% 1.1 .36 20% .62 60% .37 0.90 69% 33% 29% 0 -4 0.95 31% 0.3 .09 29% .62 81% .50
Nov
7		 Kentucky F B- F F F 17% 24% 59% D+ F C- D- D+ A- C+ F C- F F B- F F 47% 10% 43% F F B- A+ A+ F D+ F F
0.79 60% 14% 24% -14 -2 0.69 24% 0.7 .16 13% .31 65% .20 1.43 81% 33% 44% +17 +2 1.40 33% 0.5 .18 8% .38 85% .32
Nov
12		 Nicholls St. D F D A+ D+ 27% 40% 33% F F+ D+ F D- A+ A- D B C+ C+ A D+ C- 25% 18% 57% B C C+ F F A+ C+ A+ B
1.08 50% 33% 47% +2 -3 1.00 33% 0.8 .27 14% .43 74% .31 1.00 55% 25% 36% -1 -1 0.98 25% 1.6 .41 24% .27 54% .15
Nov
16		 Bryant D- F D+ D+ F 40% 20% 40% D F D+ A- B- B A+ F A A B- A+ A+ A+ 34% 19% 47% B A+ F A- D+ C- A F B
1.08 39% 33% 33% -9 0 0.84 33% 1.2 .38 11% .45 64% .29 0.79 50% 0% 18% -21 0 0.60 38% 0.8 .31 21% .18 89% .16
Nov
19		 Cleveland St. B+ A A- C+ B 35% 29% 36% F+ B- B C+ B B B D+ B- C+ F A- A+ B 40% 14% 46% D B- A+ F B- F D F+ F+
1.30 74% 50% 35% +9 -1 1.18 42% 1.1 .45 13% .33 75% .25 1.08 70% 29% 26% -2 +1 1.00 16% 1.4 .23 13% .38 83% .32
Nov
26		 Southern Indiana F F F+ F F 27% 36% 37% F F B- F+ D+ B+ F F F C+ C+ A+ D D- 27% 22% 51% B- D F+ D F+ A- F B F
0.80 44% 29% 14% -19 -3 0.59 36% 0.8 .28 13% .16 60% .10 0.91 50% 20% 35% -5 -1 0.89 34% 0.9 .32 21% .45 60% .27
Nov
29		 Western Michigan B F B+ A+ B 30% 24% 46% F+ C+ A B- A D A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ D+ A+ 42% 27% 31% C A+ C- F D- A+ B- A+ A-
1.29 43% 45% 48% +7 -1 1.13 42% 1.2 .52 15% .47 88% .42 0.85 42% 17% 36% -12 0 0.78 31% 1.2 .37 25% .24 58% .14
Dec
2		 Marquette D A A+ D B+ 24% 35% 42% F B- C- C+ C F D- F F+ A A+ A C A+ 51% 14% 35% B- A C A+ A B+ F F F
0.94 69% 47% 30% +4 -3 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 27% .21 67% .14 0.97 42% 29% 33% -10 +2 0.86 31% 0.6 .19 18% .51 84% .43
Dec
13		 UNC Wilmington C A F F F+ 28% 34% 38% D- F A+ D+ A A A+ C+ A+ D+ C B- A+ A 35% 20% 46% D A- F A F+ C- F A+ F
1.10 71% 24% 21% -8 -2 0.80 43% 1.0 .43 9% .42 75% .31 1.15 56% 33% 24% -8 0 0.85 51% 0.9 .47 14% .61 58% .35
Dec
16		 Northwestern C A- B D B+ 25% 40% 35% F B- C A+ B+ F A+ B- A+ D F F A F+ 43% 18% 39% D F+ D- B C- D+ D+ A C+
1.02 67% 42% 29% +1 -3 0.98 31% 1.2 .38 22% .41 73% .30 1.26 71% 78% 26% +9 +1 1.20 34% 1.2 .41 10% .36 68% .24
Dec
21		 Murray St. C- D+ A C+ B 36% 40% 24% F C+ D+ B+ C C+ D F+ D- D+ D+ F F F 45% 27% 29% B F+ B- A+ A+ C- F F+ F
1.10 52% 48% 36% +2 -3 1.02 30% 1.2 .35 15% .25 67% .16 1.19 64% 54% 43% +11 0 1.22 30% 0.4 .12 15% .46 82% .38
Dec
29		 Northern Iowa F+ F+ B- F F 40% 21% 38% C F A F F+ A- C+ A- B B C+ A C B 53% 18% 30% D+ B- A- F C B F F F
0.83 47% 40% 17% -14 0 0.74 35% 0.3 .09 14% .28 79% .22 1.01 57% 29% 33% -2 +1 1.00 15% 1.5 .23 17% .38 78% .29
Jan
1		 Southern Illinois D+ F F+ F F 38% 29% 34% D F C+ F F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A A+ C- A 44% 20% 36% F+ A- A- F C+ F F A F
0.94 43% 31% 21% -14 -1 0.71 30% 0.6 .17 13% .45 83% .37 1.00 45% 30% 33% -7 0 0.88 23% 1.2 .28 12% .64 60% .38
Jan
4		 Illinois-Chicago C F+ F A+ D+ 39% 34% 26% F+ D D- C+ D+ B+ A+ B- A+ B+ F C- A+ C+ 36% 36% 29% A+ B- C+ C+ C+ A+ D A C
1.06 47% 15% 50% -6 -2 0.87 30% 1.0 .30 18% .78 78% .61 0.95 67% 40% 17% -4 -2 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 26% .37 65% .24
Jan
7		 Illinois St. A- C- B+ A+ A+ 30% 38% 32% F+ A+ F+ F F C A+ B A+ C F+ A+ A- A- 41% 31% 27% B A- F A+ D+ D F A+ D-
1.19 55% 43% 75% +21 -3 1.38 17% 0.0 .00 17% .65 74% .48 1.10 71% 19% 29% -3 -1 0.94 41% 0.8 .34 14% .41 61% .25
Jan
10		 Murray St. C- C F A+ B- 53% 24% 24% B B- D+ C- D+ F A A+ A+ D+ D B- F F 42% 15% 44% D+ F C A+ A+ C- D+ D+ D+
1.06 56% 25% 50% +1 +1 1.06 30% 1.0 .30 21% .37 82% .31 1.23 65% 38% 46% +11 +1 1.25 32% 0.6 .19 15% .36 78% .28
Jan
13		 Belmont B A+ C- D C+ 12% 36% 52% F D+ B A+ A+ C+ C F F+ C F B F D 47% 17% 36% C+ D+ A A+ A+ F A+ F A+
1.14 83% 33% 31% -1 -4 0.92 37% 1.6 .58 17% .28 53% .15 1.20 76% 33% 42% +12 +1 1.28 20% 0.8 .16 14% .11 100% .11
Jan
17		 Northern Iowa D F F F F+ 21% 42% 37% F F C- A+ B A+ A+ B- A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ 38% 29% 33% A+ A+ D+ A+ B+ C- A+ A+ A+
0.92 44% 28% 25% -12 -4 0.70 23% 1.3 .29 12% .39 75% .29 0.75 67% 7% 19% -13 -1 0.73 24% 0.7 .17 14% .14 29% .04
Jan
21		 Southern Illinois B- A- F A+ A 31% 31% 38% F+ A- F A+ D A- A+ D A+ C+ D- A+ A+ A+ 51% 22% 27% F A- C- B+ B- C+ F A F
1.08 67% 25% 47% +6 -2 1.10 15% 1.5 .22 16% .56 67% .37 0.99 67% 11% 18% -8 +1 0.88 31% 0.8 .26 17% .57 60% .34
Jan
28		 Belmont C+ A+ F+ A- A- 28% 28% 43% D- B C- F F A A C A- C+ C- B F D 33% 14% 53% B+ D+ C+ F+ C- B+ F+ B- D
1.13 73% 27% 39% +5 -2 1.08 31% 0.6 .19 13% .35 76% .27 1.14 64% 33% 48% +13 0 1.28 27% 1.4 .38 22% .38 65% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Indiana St. C F A+ F F+ 51% 29% 20% C D- B+ D C+ B+ A+ F+ A+ B F+ A+ A+ C+ 52% 8% 40% D+ C+ B- A+ A- D+ F A+ D+
1.07 43% 56% 18% -7 0 0.87 39% 0.9 .34 13% .42 65% .27 1.01 70% 25% 24% -1 +3 1.06 22% 0.8 .17 17% .35 57% .20
Feb
3		 Bradley D+ B- C F D+ 33% 37% 31% D D D+ A+ A- C+ F F F C+ C F C D- 33% 29% 38% B D C A+ A B B- A- B+
1.00 63% 39% 27% -2 -2 0.94 29% 1.5 .43 18% .19 40% .08 1.10 59% 53% 35% +5 -1 1.10 27% 0.6 .17 17% .30 69% .20
Feb
6		 Evansville F+ D+ F F F 23% 38% 40% F F A A+ A+ F+ C A C+ B A- A+ F C 35% 25% 39% D+ C C A+ A C- A A A
1.01 55% 22% 26% -11 -3 0.73 43% 1.6 .69 20% .27 80% .22 0.91 50% 23% 45% 0 -1 1.00 24% 0.6 .13 19% .20 64% .12
Feb
9		 Drake B+ F A+ A+ B- 30% 24% 46% C- B- A- A+ A+ D+ A+ D+ A+ C- B- D A+ A 34% 22% 44% C A F+ F+ F F A A- A
1.21 43% 55% 43% +5 -1 1.11 38% 1.3 .50 16% .48 67% .32 1.14 55% 46% 23% -6 -1 0.88 32% 1.3 .41 9% .23 64% .15
Feb
12		 Illinois St. D D+ F D F 26% 51% 23% F F B- A+ A A F+ C+ D- F+ D+ F D D- 44% 10% 46% F F+ C- B C+ D+ C F F
0.94 53% 21% 31% -11 -5 0.70 28% 1.4 .40 12% .23 71% .17 1.26 65% 60% 38% +8 +2 1.21 29% 1.0 .29 15% .29 100% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.3 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 2.3 3rd
4th 0.0 2.7 2.3 5.0 4th
5th 1.5 9.4 0.4 11.3 5th
6th 1.1 12.2 7.2 0.0 20.5 6th
7th 0.0 2.9 18.8 18.6 1.2 41.6 7th
8th 0.7 7.6 7.7 0.8 16.7 8th
9th 1.1 1.1 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.9 11.6 27.6 33.2 20.7 5.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 5.1% 5.6% 5.6% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.8
11-9 20.7% 3.5% 3.5% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 20.0
10-10 33.2% 2.3% 2.3% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 32.4
9-11 27.6% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 27.3
8-12 11.6% 0.8% 0.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 11.5
7-13 1.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.9
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 14.0 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.6 1.8 33.3 63.2 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%
Lose Out 1.2%