Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#211
Expected Predictive Rating-1.7#196
Pace66.2#270
Improvement+3.0#22

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#275
First Shot-5.8#329
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#71
Layup/Dunks-8.3#359
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#20
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#252
Freethrows+0.3#161
Improvement+0.7#123

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#149
First Shot+1.7#112
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#259
Layups/Dunks+0.8#144
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#85
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#139
Freethrows-1.9#288
Improvement+2.3#24
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.3% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 19.1% 30.6% 12.8%
.500 or above in Conference 17.0% 22.6% 14.0%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 24.3% 19.3% 27.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.0% 1.3% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Home) - 35.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 34 - 85 - 16
Quad 48 - 313 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 329 Eastern Illinois W 66-63 82%     1 - 0 -9.9 -11.6 +1.7
  Fri, Nov 7 21 @Kentucky L 59-107 3%     1 - 1 -29.9 -8.8 -17.9
  Wed, Nov 12 254 Nicholls St. W 68-63 68%     2 - 1 -3.2 +0.1 -2.7
  Sun, Nov 16 297 Bryant W 68-50 76%     3 - 1 +7.5 -0.4 +9.9
  Wed, Nov 19 323 @Cleveland St. W 90-75 62%     4 - 1 +8.6 +12.9 -4.1
  Wed, Nov 26 314 Southern Indiana L 56-64 79%     4 - 2 -19.6 -21.2 +1.7
  Sat, Nov 29 245 Western Michigan W 84-55 66%     5 - 2 +21.4 +12.9 +10.7
  Tue, Dec 2 88 @Marquette L 72-75 OT 13%     5 - 3 +6.0 -2.2 +8.6
  Sat, Dec 13 109 UNC Wilmington L 65-69 35%    
  Tue, Dec 16 61 @Northwestern L 63-78 8%    
  Sun, Dec 21 111 Murray St. L 73-77 35%    
  Mon, Dec 29 98 @Northern Iowa L 57-68 14%    
  Thu, Jan 1 143 @Southern Illinois L 67-74 24%    
  Sun, Jan 4 204 Illinois-Chicago W 71-69 58%    
  Wed, Jan 7 92 Illinois St. L 66-72 29%    
  Sat, Jan 10 111 @Murray St. L 70-80 18%    
  Tue, Jan 13 90 @Belmont L 66-78 14%    
  Sat, Jan 17 98 Northern Iowa L 60-65 31%    
  Wed, Jan 21 143 Southern Illinois L 70-71 45%    
  Wed, Jan 28 90 Belmont L 69-75 29%    
  Sat, Jan 31 198 @Indiana St. L 70-74 37%    
  Tue, Feb 3 115 @Bradley L 63-73 19%    
  Fri, Feb 6 265 Evansville W 69-64 68%    
  Mon, Feb 9 124 @Drake L 62-71 22%    
  Thu, Feb 12 92 @Illinois St. L 63-75 14%    
  Sun, Feb 15 198 Indiana St. W 73-71 57%    
  Wed, Feb 18 115 Bradley L 66-70 37%    
  Sat, Feb 21 204 @Illinois-Chicago L 68-72 38%    
  Wed, Feb 25 124 Drake L 65-68 41%    
  Sat, Feb 28 265 @Evansville L 66-67 48%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 2.2 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.1 2.9 0.8 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.2 4.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.7 5.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 15.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.7 6.6 5.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 18.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.8 6.7 4.4 1.1 0.1 19.2 10th
11th 0.3 1.3 3.1 4.7 4.1 2.1 0.5 0.0 16.2 11th
Total 0.3 1.3 3.4 6.6 9.8 12.8 13.7 13.4 11.8 9.8 6.9 4.6 2.9 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 84.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 82.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 51.1% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 21.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 5.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 13.8% 13.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 15.9% 15.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.8% 12.8% 12.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-7 1.5% 6.6% 6.6% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
12-8 2.9% 6.2% 6.2% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.7
11-9 4.6% 3.2% 3.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.4
10-10 6.9% 1.7% 1.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7
9-11 9.8% 1.2% 1.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.7
8-12 11.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.7
7-13 13.4% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 13.4
6-14 13.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.7
5-15 12.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.8
4-16 9.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.8
3-17 6.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.6
2-18 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.4
1-19 1.3% 1.3
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%