Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#214
Expected Predictive Rating-1.8#206
Pace69.4#160
Improvement+1.6#114

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#208
First Shot-3.6#287
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#38
Layup/Dunks-3.2#295
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#147
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#264
Freethrows+1.9#75
Improvement-2.2#300

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#232
First Shot-0.9#204
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#265
Layups/Dunks-4.0#318
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#261
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#34
Freethrows+0.0#186
Improvement+3.8#20
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.0% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.1 14.7
.500 or above 21.6% 44.2% 18.9%
.500 or above in Conference 19.4% 41.0% 16.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.6% 1.3% 6.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.7% 1.0% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Away) - 10.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 33 - 64 - 14
Quad 410 - 313 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 91   Liberty L 63-83 20%     0 - 1 -13.9 -2.7 -11.9
  Nov 12, 2024 171   Cleveland St. L 67-75 51%     0 - 2 -11.2 -5.2 -6.2
  Nov 21, 2024 342   Lindenwood W 77-64 86%     1 - 2 -1.3 -3.7 +2.0
  Nov 24, 2024 343   Eastern Illinois W 81-53 86%     2 - 2 +13.5 +14.6 +2.7
  Nov 27, 2024 356   Northern Illinois W 87-82 89%     3 - 2 -11.6 +1.9 -13.8
  Nov 29, 2024 106   @ DePaul L 70-89 19%     3 - 3 -12.7 +0.7 -14.0
  Dec 05, 2024 80   Drake L 60-66 24%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -1.6 -1.1 -1.4
  Dec 14, 2024 225   Central Michigan W 93-77 63%     4 - 4 +9.6 +8.4 -0.6
  Dec 17, 2024 36   @ Ohio St. L 73-95 6%     4 - 5 -6.7 +3.0 -8.3
  Dec 20, 2024 304   @ Western Michigan W 76-73 59%     5 - 5 -2.2 -0.2 -2.0
  Dec 29, 2024 74   @ Bradley L 75-81 2OT 11%     5 - 6 0 - 2 +4.4 +0.1 +4.9
  Jan 01, 2025 245   @ Missouri St. W 73-72 46%     6 - 6 1 - 2 -0.9 +11.5 -12.1
  Jan 04, 2025 113   Northern Iowa W 80-73 38%     7 - 6 2 - 2 +7.2 +7.6 -0.2
  Jan 08, 2025 213   Indiana St. W 98-95 OT 60%     8 - 6 3 - 2 -2.5 +3.7 -6.7
  Jan 11, 2025 141   @ Murray St. L 47-58 25%     8 - 7 3 - 3 -6.8 -18.2 +10.1
  Jan 14, 2025 139   @ Belmont L 64-71 25%     8 - 8 3 - 4 -2.7 -13.3 +11.0
  Jan 18, 2025 142   Illinois-Chicago L 74-81 44%     8 - 9 3 - 5 -8.3 -0.3 -8.0
  Jan 22, 2025 80   @ Drake L 58-71 11%    
  Jan 25, 2025 261   Evansville W 71-66 71%    
  Jan 28, 2025 190   Southern Illinois W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 01, 2025 144   @ Illinois St. L 69-76 25%    
  Feb 05, 2025 213   @ Indiana St. L 80-83 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 141   Murray St. L 69-71 46%    
  Feb 12, 2025 139   Belmont L 79-81 45%    
  Feb 16, 2025 261   @ Evansville W 69-68 49%    
  Feb 19, 2025 245   Missouri St. W 71-67 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 190   @ Southern Illinois L 70-74 34%    
  Feb 26, 2025 74   Bradley L 67-75 25%    
  Mar 02, 2025 142   @ Illinois-Chicago L 72-79 25%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.3 1.4 0.8 0.1 2.7 4th
5th 0.3 2.1 2.8 0.5 0.0 5.7 5th
6th 0.2 3.3 5.0 1.4 0.1 10.0 6th
7th 0.1 3.4 7.8 2.9 0.2 14.4 7th
8th 0.1 2.9 9.3 5.5 0.6 0.0 18.3 8th
9th 0.1 2.1 8.7 6.6 0.8 0.0 18.2 9th
10th 0.0 1.4 6.9 6.6 1.0 0.0 15.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 4.9 4.2 0.8 0.0 11.4 11th
12th 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.2 2.2 12th
Total 0.4 2.3 7.2 13.5 19.1 20.6 17.6 10.9 6.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 33.3% 0.0    0.0
13-7 6.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.5% 8.5% 8.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-8 2.0% 3.1% 3.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
11-9 6.0% 2.3% 2.3% 13.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.8
10-10 10.9% 1.0% 1.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 10.8
9-11 17.6% 0.9% 0.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 17.5
8-12 20.6% 0.9% 0.9% 15.4 0.1 0.1 20.4
7-13 19.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.1
6-14 13.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.5
5-15 7.2% 7.2
4-16 2.3% 2.3
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 14.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%