Lindenwood
Ohio Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.8#347
Expected Predictive Rating-10.8#327
Pace68.4#193
Improvement+3.4#20

Offense
Total Offense-6.9#347
First Shot-5.7#334
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#252
Layup/Dunks+0.8#152
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#169
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#340
Freethrows-0.7#224
Improvement+0.8#110

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#327
First Shot-4.6#318
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#210
Layups/Dunks-0.8#200
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#81
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.8#354
Freethrows+1.7#72
Improvement+2.5#19
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.0% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 7.2% 10.5% 2.9%
.500 or above in Conference 22.9% 31.0% 12.7%
Conference Champion 1.5% 2.3% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 30.1% 20.4% 42.4%
First Four1.3% 1.8% 0.8%
First Round0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 55.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 30 - 20 - 6
Quad 49 - 1410 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 37   @ Oklahoma L 60-93 2%     0 - 1 -18.1 -8.8 -7.7
  Nov 14, 2024 346   New Orleans L 74-82 50%     0 - 2 -19.7 -6.8 -12.7
  Nov 15, 2024 259   @ Robert Morris L 53-67 19%     0 - 3 -16.5 -12.0 -6.0
  Nov 17, 2024 323   Stonehill W 75-74 40%     1 - 3 -8.1 +1.2 -9.3
  Nov 21, 2024 227   @ Valparaiso L 64-77 15%     1 - 4 -13.5 -12.7 -0.4
  Nov 27, 2024 51   @ Missouri L 61-81 2%     1 - 5 -6.8 -9.0 +2.8
  Dec 07, 2024 26   @ Mississippi L 53-86 1%     1 - 6 -16.4 -10.3 -7.9
  Dec 14, 2024 353   IU Indianapolis W 81-63 65%     2 - 6 +2.2 +1.9 +0.9
  Dec 19, 2024 332   Tennessee Tech W 71-70 56%    
  Dec 21, 2024 328   Western Illinois W 68-67 54%    
  Jan 02, 2025 322   @ Eastern Illinois L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 04, 2025 263   @ SIU Edwardsville L 64-73 20%    
  Jan 09, 2025 321   Tennessee St. W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 11, 2025 327   Tennessee Martin W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 16, 2025 281   @ Southern Indiana L 67-76 21%    
  Jan 18, 2025 279   @ Morehead St. L 65-74 22%    
  Jan 23, 2025 297   Southeast Missouri St. L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 25, 2025 244   Arkansas Little Rock L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 30, 2025 263   SIU Edwardsville L 67-70 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 322   Eastern Illinois W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 06, 2025 327   @ Tennessee Martin L 70-75 32%    
  Feb 08, 2025 321   @ Tennessee St. L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 13, 2025 279   Morehead St. L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 281   Southern Indiana L 70-73 41%    
  Feb 20, 2025 244   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 64-74 18%    
  Feb 22, 2025 297   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 66-74 25%    
  Feb 25, 2025 328   @ Western Illinois L 65-70 33%    
  Mar 01, 2025 332   @ Tennessee Tech L 68-73 34%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 6.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.7 3.0 0.5 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 3.6 4.1 0.8 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.8 5.0 1.6 0.1 11.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.3 5.9 2.3 0.1 13.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.4 5.2 5.8 2.7 0.2 16.9 10th
11th 0.2 1.0 2.8 4.7 5.6 4.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 21.1 11th
Total 0.2 1.0 2.9 5.3 8.2 10.9 12.8 13.3 11.9 10.6 8.3 6.1 4.0 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 94.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 85.2% 0.2    0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 61.8% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 38.4% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 11.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 32.7% 32.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.2% 24.3% 24.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.6% 22.7% 22.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 0.5
14-6 1.3% 18.4% 18.4% 16.0 0.2 1.1
13-7 2.3% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 0.3 2.0
12-8 4.0% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.3 3.7
11-9 6.1% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.2 5.8
10-10 8.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 8.1
9-11 10.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 10.5
8-12 11.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.9
7-13 13.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.3
6-14 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.8
5-15 10.9% 10.9
4-16 8.2% 8.2
3-17 5.3% 5.3
2-18 2.9% 2.9
1-19 1.0% 1.0
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%