Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.2#288
Expected Predictive Rating-7.8#296
Pace68.1#199
Improvement+1.1#135

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#266
First Shot-7.0#344
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#16
Layup/Dunks+9.7#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-15.0#364
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#303
Freethrows+2.3#58
Improvement+5.5#5

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#281
First Shot-0.8#200
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#350
Layups/Dunks+0.6#149
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#17
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#344
Freethrows+1.2#98
Improvement-4.4#354
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.9% 12.5% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 26.1% 38.9% 17.3%
.500 or above in Conference 84.4% 93.6% 78.0%
Conference Champion 7.1% 12.2% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four7.0% 8.0% 6.3%
First Round6.3% 8.7% 4.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Away) - 41.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 31 - 41 - 6
Quad 412 - 1113 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 144   @ Illinois St. W 67-65 15%     1 - 0 +6.1 -13.6 +19.5
  Nov 11, 2024 163   @ North Alabama L 69-87 17%     1 - 1 -15.1 -4.2 -10.7
  Nov 16, 2024 199   @ Longwood L 62-64 21%     1 - 2 -0.9 -8.4 +7.5
  Nov 21, 2024 169   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 77-81 18%     1 - 3 -1.6 +4.8 -6.4
  Nov 22, 2024 350   Le Moyne L 53-65 70%     1 - 4 -24.7 -27.8 +3.5
  Nov 27, 2024 8   @ Tennessee L 35-78 1%     1 - 5 -21.5 -20.9 -6.6
  Dec 03, 2024 279   @ Charleston Southern L 68-83 37%     1 - 6 -18.9 -2.3 -17.4
  Dec 11, 2024 299   @ Alabama St. L 93-103 OT 41%     1 - 7 -15.0 +5.5 -19.2
  Dec 19, 2024 259   @ Morehead St. L 69-70 OT 33%     1 - 8 0 - 1 -3.7 -4.6 +0.9
  Dec 21, 2024 324   @ Southern Indiana W 77-46 49%     2 - 8 1 - 1 +23.9 +8.2 +18.6
  Jan 02, 2025 238   Arkansas Little Rock L 56-57 49%     2 - 9 1 - 2 -8.1 -10.8 +2.6
  Jan 04, 2025 269   Southeast Missouri St. W 66-63 56%     3 - 9 2 - 2 -5.9 -0.5 -5.0
  Jan 09, 2025 336   @ Western Illinois W 85-83 OT 56%     4 - 9 3 - 2 -6.7 +2.4 -9.2
  Jan 11, 2025 341   @ Lindenwood L 81-82 56%     4 - 10 3 - 3 -9.8 +6.4 -16.2
  Jan 16, 2025 344   Eastern Illinois W 68-63 76%     5 - 10 4 - 3 -9.5 -8.9 -0.5
  Jan 18, 2025 263   SIU Edwardsville W 85-82 55%     6 - 10 5 - 3 -5.5 +16.3 -21.6
  Jan 21, 2025 301   @ Tennessee St. L 73-75 41%    
  Jan 25, 2025 317   Tennessee Tech W 74-70 67%    
  Jan 30, 2025 269   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 01, 2025 238   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 66-72 29%    
  Feb 06, 2025 341   Lindenwood W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 336   Western Illinois W 72-65 75%    
  Feb 13, 2025 263   @ SIU Edwardsville L 66-70 34%    
  Feb 15, 2025 344   @ Eastern Illinois W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 18, 2025 301   Tennessee St. W 76-73 62%    
  Feb 20, 2025 317   @ Tennessee Tech L 71-72 45%    
  Feb 27, 2025 324   Southern Indiana W 74-69 70%    
  Mar 01, 2025 259   Morehead St. W 68-67 56%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 2.4 1.1 0.2 7.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 5.4 4.8 1.5 0.1 13.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 7.5 7.0 1.8 0.2 18.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 7.8 8.0 2.1 0.1 19.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 6.7 7.9 2.2 0.1 17.6 5th
6th 0.3 3.9 6.0 1.4 0.1 11.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 3.6 1.1 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.9 0.1 3.3 8th
9th 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.6 4.5 9.1 15.3 19.3 19.7 15.5 9.1 4.1 1.2 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 93.4% 1.1    0.9 0.2 0.0
15-5 58.2% 2.4    1.2 1.0 0.2
14-6 26.8% 2.4    0.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 5.5% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 2.8 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 1.2% 33.1% 33.1% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.8
15-5 4.1% 30.0% 30.0% 15.8 0.3 0.9 2.9
14-6 9.1% 24.2% 24.2% 16.0 0.1 2.1 6.9
13-7 15.5% 15.6% 15.6% 16.0 0.1 2.4 13.1
12-8 19.7% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 0.0 1.9 17.8
11-9 19.3% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 1.0 18.3
10-10 15.3% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.4 14.9
9-11 9.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.2 8.9
8-12 4.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.5
7-13 1.6% 1.6
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.8 9.1 90.1 0.0%