Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.8#327
Expected Predictive Rating-12.4#337
Pace72.1#93
Improvement-3.5#344

Offense
Total Offense-5.4#324
First Shot-10.3#362
After Offensive Rebound+4.9#6
Layup/Dunks+6.9#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-9.5#364
3 Pt Jumpshots-12.8#363
Freethrows+5.1#2
Improvement+1.5#63

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#307
First Shot-2.8#269
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#302
Layups/Dunks+0.9#137
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#51
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#347
Freethrows+0.0#186
Improvement-5.0#363
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 6.9% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 10.1% 19.9% 6.6%
.500 or above in Conference 40.2% 59.5% 33.3%
Conference Champion 4.2% 9.2% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 15.9% 7.3% 19.0%
First Four3.5% 5.7% 2.7%
First Round2.2% 3.9% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Away) - 26.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 31 - 41 - 5
Quad 49 - 1410 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 160   @ Illinois St. W 67-65 12%     1 - 0 +4.9 -12.7 +17.4
  Nov 11, 2024 193   @ North Alabama L 69-87 15%     1 - 1 -16.6 -3.8 -12.6
  Nov 16, 2024 220   @ Longwood L 62-64 18%     1 - 2 -1.9 -7.8 +5.9
  Nov 21, 2024 190   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 77-81 14%     1 - 3 -2.4 +5.3 -7.7
  Nov 22, 2024 338   Le Moyne L 53-65 55%     1 - 4 -23.1 -26.0 +3.2
  Nov 27, 2024 4   @ Tennessee L 35-78 1%     1 - 5 -20.0 -19.7 -6.2
  Dec 03, 2024 299   @ Charleston Southern L 68-83 30%     1 - 6 -19.3 -3.1 -17.0
  Dec 11, 2024 275   @ Alabama St. L 93-103 OT 26%     1 - 7 -13.0 +6.6 -18.4
  Dec 19, 2024 279   @ Morehead St. L 68-75 26%    
  Dec 21, 2024 281   @ Southern Indiana L 70-77 26%    
  Jan 02, 2025 244   Arkansas Little Rock L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 04, 2025 297   Southeast Missouri St. W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 09, 2025 328   @ Western Illinois L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 11, 2025 347   @ Lindenwood L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 16, 2025 322   Eastern Illinois W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 18, 2025 263   SIU Edwardsville L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 21, 2025 321   @ Tennessee St. L 74-78 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 332   Tennessee Tech W 75-72 62%    
  Jan 30, 2025 297   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 70-76 31%    
  Feb 01, 2025 244   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 67-75 23%    
  Feb 06, 2025 347   Lindenwood W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 08, 2025 328   Western Illinois W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 13, 2025 263   @ SIU Edwardsville L 67-74 27%    
  Feb 15, 2025 322   @ Eastern Illinois L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 18, 2025 321   Tennessee St. W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 20, 2025 332   @ Tennessee Tech L 72-75 41%    
  Feb 27, 2025 281   Southern Indiana L 73-74 48%    
  Mar 01, 2025 279   Morehead St. L 71-72 48%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.2 2.2 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 3.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 7.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.4 3.2 0.6 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.2 4.2 0.8 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.9 5.0 1.3 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.3 5.3 1.8 0.1 11.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.3 4.8 2.2 0.2 11.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.2 3.9 2.1 0.2 0.0 11.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.0 2.7 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 10.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.3 4.1 6.7 9.1 11.0 12.6 12.4 11.4 9.8 7.4 5.2 3.3 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 95.5% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-4 84.9% 0.7    0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 64.4% 1.1    0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 34.4% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 12.4% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 44.9% 44.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.4% 37.1% 37.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3
16-4 0.8% 29.4% 29.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 0.6
15-5 1.7% 24.2% 24.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4 1.3
14-6 3.3% 21.0% 21.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7 2.6
13-7 5.2% 14.8% 14.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8 4.4
12-8 7.4% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.6 6.8
11-9 9.8% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.5 9.3
10-10 11.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.3 11.1
9-11 12.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 12.2
8-12 12.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.5
7-13 11.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.0
6-14 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.1
5-15 6.7% 6.7
4-16 4.1% 4.1
3-17 2.3% 2.3
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.9 95.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%