Southern Indiana
Ohio Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#281
Expected Predictive Rating-4.7#247
Pace68.6#190
Improvement+0.7#136

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#252
First Shot-0.4#181
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#317
Layup/Dunks-1.2#223
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#60
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#268
Freethrows+1.3#100
Improvement+1.1#98

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#276
First Shot-2.6#261
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#233
Layups/Dunks-2.9#280
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#46
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#117
Freethrows-3.2#344
Improvement-0.3#221
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.9% 17.2% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 59.7% 66.9% 41.9%
.500 or above in Conference 74.1% 80.7% 57.7%
Conference Champion 18.3% 22.3% 8.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 2.3% 8.2%
First Four7.8% 8.5% 5.8%
First Round11.0% 12.8% 6.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Home) - 71.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 31 - 41 - 5
Quad 415 - 915 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 88   @ DePaul L 78-80 OT 8%     0 - 1 +7.1 +4.0 +3.3
  Nov 07, 2024 260   Bucknell L 69-75 OT 59%     0 - 2 -14.5 -7.8 -6.5
  Nov 11, 2024 186   @ Marshall L 63-77 22%     0 - 3 -12.3 -8.6 -3.5
  Nov 13, 2024 333   @ Bellarmine W 71-69 55%     1 - 3 -5.4 -6.5 +1.1
  Nov 16, 2024 152   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 74-93 18%     1 - 4 -15.7 +1.1 -17.2
  Nov 22, 2024 228   South Dakota W 92-83 52%     2 - 4 +2.4 +5.5 -3.6
  Nov 25, 2024 168   Indiana St. W 87-77 40%     3 - 4 +6.4 +1.7 +3.8
  Dec 07, 2024 169   @ Southern Illinois L 70-73 21%     3 - 5 -0.6 +5.5 -6.3
  Dec 19, 2024 321   Tennessee St. W 78-72 71%    
  Dec 21, 2024 327   Tennessee Martin W 77-70 74%    
  Dec 31, 2024 279   Morehead St. W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 02, 2025 332   @ Tennessee Tech W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 09, 2025 297   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 244   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 67-72 34%    
  Jan 16, 2025 347   Lindenwood W 76-67 79%    
  Jan 18, 2025 328   Western Illinois W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 23, 2025 263   @ SIU Edwardsville L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 322   @ Eastern Illinois L 69-70 50%    
  Jan 28, 2025 279   @ Morehead St. L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 332   Tennessee Tech W 75-68 74%    
  Feb 06, 2025 244   Arkansas Little Rock W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 297   Southeast Missouri St. W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 13, 2025 328   @ Western Illinois W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 347   @ Lindenwood W 73-70 59%    
  Feb 20, 2025 322   Eastern Illinois W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 263   SIU Edwardsville W 71-69 59%    
  Feb 27, 2025 327   @ Tennessee Martin W 74-73 52%    
  Mar 01, 2025 321   @ Tennessee St. L 75-76 50%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.4 4.8 4.2 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 18.3 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 5.0 4.8 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 5.3 4.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 5.1 4.0 1.1 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.2 3.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.9 1.0 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.8 4.8 6.7 8.7 10.8 12.1 12.4 11.7 9.8 7.7 4.9 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 99.6% 1.4    1.4 0.0
17-3 95.0% 2.7    2.4 0.3 0.0
16-4 85.4% 4.2    3.3 0.9 0.0 0.0
15-5 61.6% 4.8    2.7 1.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 34.7% 3.4    1.3 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 10.6% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.3% 18.3 11.7 4.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 57.7% 57.7% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.4% 49.8% 49.8% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.4% 47.5% 47.5% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7
17-3 2.8% 44.5% 44.5% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 1.6
16-4 4.9% 38.4% 38.4% 15.5 0.1 0.8 1.0 3.0
15-5 7.7% 33.1% 33.1% 15.8 0.0 0.5 2.0 5.2
14-6 9.8% 27.9% 27.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.5 7.0
13-7 11.7% 20.6% 20.6% 16.0 0.1 2.3 9.3
12-8 12.4% 12.7% 12.7% 16.0 0.0 1.6 10.8
11-9 12.1% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 11.3
10-10 10.8% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5 10.3
9-11 8.7% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.3 8.5
8-12 6.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.6
7-13 4.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.8
6-14 2.8% 2.8
5-15 1.7% 1.7
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 14.9% 14.9% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 11.4 85.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.4 6.7 53.3 30.0 10.0