South Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#228
Expected Predictive Rating-1.1#186
Pace77.5#20
Improvement-0.7#241

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#97
First Shot+0.7#151
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#55
Layup/Dunks+0.9#147
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#175
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#304
Freethrows+4.1#13
Improvement-0.3#199

Defense
Total Defense-6.6#349
First Shot-3.2#283
After Offensive Rebounds-3.4#350
Layups/Dunks-1.6#235
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#100
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#272
Freethrows-0.4#225
Improvement-0.5#225
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 7.4% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 60.0% 62.7% 38.6%
.500 or above in Conference 61.1% 62.2% 51.7%
Conference Champion 6.7% 6.9% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 6.0% 5.6% 9.3%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 1.3%
First Round6.7% 7.0% 4.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 88.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 42 - 8
Quad 413 - 616 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 223   Southern W 93-79 60%     1 - 0 +7.8 +9.3 -3.1
  Nov 06, 2024 357   Texas A&M - Commerce W 86-73 89%    
  Nov 12, 2024 43   @ Iowa L 77-96 6%     1 - 1 -4.9 +5.0 -9.1
  Nov 20, 2024 295   @ Western Michigan W 80-76 52%     2 - 1 +0.0 +1.6 -1.7
  Nov 22, 2024 281   @ Southern Indiana L 83-92 48%     2 - 2 -12.2 +3.4 -15.1
  Nov 27, 2024 52   @ Nebraska L 79-96 7%     2 - 3 -3.8 +7.3 -9.8
  Dec 04, 2024 231   Idaho St. W 94-80 62%     3 - 3 +7.2 +23.3 -15.5
  Dec 07, 2024 286   @ Northern Arizona L 82-95 50%     3 - 4 -16.7 -0.6 -15.1
  Dec 10, 2024 187   Wyoming W 82-81 53%     4 - 4 -3.3 +1.8 -5.1
  Dec 14, 2024 328   Western Illinois W 89-66 81%     5 - 4 +10.1 +12.6 -1.9
  Dec 19, 2024 298   @ Utah Tech W 82-81 53%    
  Dec 21, 2024 78   @ Santa Clara L 76-90 10%    
  Jan 02, 2025 271   @ UMKC L 79-80 47%    
  Jan 04, 2025 325   Denver W 86-77 79%    
  Jan 11, 2025 143   @ St. Thomas L 80-87 25%    
  Jan 16, 2025 293   Oral Roberts W 86-80 72%    
  Jan 18, 2025 131   North Dakota St. L 81-83 41%    
  Jan 23, 2025 302   @ North Dakota W 84-83 54%    
  Jan 25, 2025 123   @ South Dakota St. L 78-87 21%    
  Jan 29, 2025 294   Nebraska Omaha W 84-78 72%    
  Feb 06, 2025 325   @ Denver W 83-80 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 293   @ Oral Roberts W 84-83 51%    
  Feb 13, 2025 271   UMKC W 82-77 68%    
  Feb 15, 2025 123   South Dakota St. L 81-84 39%    
  Feb 19, 2025 143   St. Thomas L 83-84 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 294   @ Nebraska Omaha W 82-81 52%    
  Feb 26, 2025 131   @ North Dakota St. L 78-86 23%    
  Mar 01, 2025 302   North Dakota W 87-80 74%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.1 2.2 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.4 2.8 0.6 0.0 11.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 5.0 6.7 3.1 0.4 0.0 16.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 7.1 7.8 2.7 0.3 19.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 6.8 6.2 1.5 0.1 16.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 5.0 4.9 1.0 0.0 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.5 3.5 0.7 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 4.0 7.2 10.8 14.3 15.4 14.9 12.7 8.9 5.4 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-2 95.3% 0.9    0.8 0.2
13-3 78.2% 2.0    1.3 0.7 0.1
12-4 41.0% 2.2    0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0
11-5 11.9% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 6.7% 6.7 3.4 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 25.0% 25.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.2% 33.9% 33.9% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-2 1.0% 27.0% 27.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-3 2.6% 20.8% 20.8% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.1
12-4 5.4% 17.8% 17.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 4.4
11-5 8.9% 13.2% 13.2% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 7.7
10-6 12.7% 10.0% 10.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 11.4
9-7 14.9% 7.4% 7.4% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 13.8
8-8 15.4% 5.4% 5.4% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 14.5
7-9 14.3% 3.8% 3.8% 15.9 0.1 0.5 13.7
6-10 10.8% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 10.5
5-11 7.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 7.1
4-12 4.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.0
3-13 1.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.8
2-14 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.9 2.3 92.8 0.0%