St. Thomas
Summit League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#169
Expected Predictive Rating+2.9#135
Pace69.1#188
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#159
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#204
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.9% 29.7% 19.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.4 14.3
.500 or above 73.6% 90.1% 70.7%
.500 or above in Conference 79.6% 88.7% 78.0%
Conference Champion 28.2% 41.4% 25.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 1.8% 4.1%
First Four1.5% 0.8% 1.6%
First Round20.3% 29.3% 18.7%
Second Round1.7% 3.7% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Away) - 14.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 8
Quad 413 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 290   @ Green Bay W 90-76 63%     1 - 0 +10.3 +11.0 -1.1
  Nov 10, 2024 87   @ Oklahoma St. L 71-80 17%     1 - 1 +0.5 -1.3 +2.5
  Nov 17, 2024 72   @ Arizona St. L 67-78 15%    
  Nov 22, 2024 178   Wofford W 72-71 51%    
  Nov 23, 2024 209   Portland St. W 81-79 58%    
  Nov 24, 2024 240   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78-77 50%    
  Dec 02, 2024 342   Chicago St. W 81-67 89%    
  Dec 04, 2024 192   @ Northern Colorado L 75-77 44%    
  Dec 07, 2024 218   Montana W 75-69 69%    
  Dec 13, 2024 311   Western Michigan W 78-67 83%    
  Dec 21, 2024 270   @ Bowling Green W 75-73 58%    
  Dec 29, 2024 155   @ UC Riverside L 72-76 36%    
  Jan 02, 2025 222   @ North Dakota St. L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 271   @ North Dakota W 73-71 59%    
  Jan 08, 2025 166   South Dakota St. W 75-72 59%    
  Jan 11, 2025 252   South Dakota W 80-73 73%    
  Jan 18, 2025 309   Denver W 82-72 81%    
  Jan 23, 2025 266   @ Nebraska Omaha W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 25, 2025 205   @ UMKC L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 29, 2025 245   Oral Roberts W 78-71 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 222   North Dakota St. W 77-71 68%    
  Feb 06, 2025 166   @ South Dakota St. L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 309   @ Denver W 79-75 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 266   Nebraska Omaha W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 19, 2025 252   @ South Dakota W 77-76 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 245   @ Oral Roberts W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 27, 2025 271   North Dakota W 76-68 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 205   UMKC W 73-68 66%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.4 6.8 7.6 5.9 2.8 1.0 28.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 4.8 7.1 4.6 1.4 0.2 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 5.0 5.9 2.6 0.4 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.1 5.1 1.7 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.1 1.1 0.1 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.3 1.1 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.5 0.9 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.7 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.4 5.8 7.9 10.2 12.4 13.2 13.2 11.8 9.0 6.1 2.8 1.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
15-1 100.0% 2.8    2.8 0.1
14-2 96.9% 5.9    5.3 0.6 0.0
13-3 84.5% 7.6    5.8 1.7 0.1
12-4 57.7% 6.8    3.6 2.7 0.5 0.0
11-5 25.3% 3.4    1.0 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 5.3% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 28.2% 28.2 19.5 6.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.0% 67.0% 66.7% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.0%
15-1 2.8% 54.3% 54.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3
14-2 6.1% 46.8% 46.8% 13.2 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.1 3.2
13-3 9.0% 39.1% 39.1% 13.6 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 5.5
12-4 11.8% 30.5% 30.5% 14.1 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.0 0.2 8.2
11-5 13.2% 23.7% 23.7% 14.5 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.4 10.1
10-6 13.2% 17.3% 17.3% 14.9 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.6 10.9
9-7 12.4% 11.8% 11.8% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 10.9
8-8 10.2% 9.8% 9.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 9.2
7-9 7.9% 7.3% 7.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 7.4
6-10 5.8% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 5.6
5-11 3.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 3.3
4-12 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-13 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9
2-14 0.4% 0.4
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 20.9% 20.9% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.6 6.0 5.0 3.2 79.1 0.0%