St. Thomas
Summit League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#143
Expected Predictive Rating+1.2#148
Pace68.4#195
Improvement+1.3#94

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#107
First Shot+6.5#33
After Offensive Rebound-4.0#353
Layup/Dunks+3.4#69
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#354
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#20
Freethrows+0.1#172
Improvement+2.5#24

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#223
First Shot-1.7#227
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#186
Layups/Dunks+0.6#144
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#201
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#263
Freethrows-0.3#211
Improvement-1.3#283
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.6% 24.3% 19.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 92.7% 95.8% 87.3%
.500 or above in Conference 91.1% 92.6% 88.5%
Conference Champion 28.8% 31.4% 24.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 0.9%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round22.4% 24.2% 19.4%
Second Round1.6% 1.9% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bowling Green (Away) - 63.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 44 - 8
Quad 415 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 331   @ Green Bay W 90-76 78%     1 - 0 +6.8 +10.1 -3.6
  Nov 10, 2024 85   @ Oklahoma St. L 71-80 21%     1 - 1 +0.4 -2.4 +3.5
  Nov 17, 2024 61   @ Arizona St. L 66-81 15%     1 - 2 -2.9 +0.9 -4.1
  Nov 22, 2024 163   Wofford L 73-81 55%     1 - 3 -8.4 -0.3 -8.3
  Nov 23, 2024 276   Portland St. W 91-65 74%     2 - 3 +19.9 +12.4 +7.1
  Nov 24, 2024 141   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 65-69 37%     2 - 4 +0.1 -6.7 +6.8
  Dec 02, 2024 359   Chicago St. W 98-76 94%     3 - 4 +4.8 +6.9 -4.7
  Dec 04, 2024 192   @ Northern Colorado W 87-75 47%     4 - 4 +13.5 +19.1 -4.8
  Dec 07, 2024 212   Montana W 88-81 73%     5 - 4 +1.5 +9.6 -8.2
  Dec 13, 2024 295   Western Michigan W 77-71 84%     6 - 4 -4.0 +3.8 -7.4
  Dec 21, 2024 265   @ Bowling Green W 79-75 63%    
  Dec 29, 2024 177   @ UC Riverside L 72-73 45%    
  Jan 02, 2025 131   @ North Dakota St. L 73-77 35%    
  Jan 04, 2025 302   @ North Dakota W 79-74 69%    
  Jan 08, 2025 123   South Dakota St. W 75-74 55%    
  Jan 11, 2025 228   South Dakota W 87-80 75%    
  Jan 18, 2025 325   Denver W 81-68 88%    
  Jan 23, 2025 294   @ Nebraska Omaha W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 25, 2025 271   @ UMKC W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 29, 2025 293   Oral Roberts W 81-70 84%    
  Feb 01, 2025 131   North Dakota St. W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 06, 2025 123   @ South Dakota St. L 72-77 34%    
  Feb 08, 2025 325   @ Denver W 78-71 74%    
  Feb 15, 2025 294   Nebraska Omaha W 79-68 83%    
  Feb 19, 2025 228   @ South Dakota W 84-83 55%    
  Feb 22, 2025 293   @ Oral Roberts W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 27, 2025 302   North Dakota W 82-71 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 271   UMKC W 77-67 80%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.8 9.0 6.8 3.0 0.6 28.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.3 9.1 8.1 3.0 0.4 25.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 5.2 8.4 5.1 1.3 0.0 20.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.7 5.3 2.1 0.2 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.6 4.7 8.1 12.1 15.2 16.7 16.1 12.0 7.2 3.0 0.6 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
15-1 100.0% 3.0    2.9 0.1
14-2 94.9% 6.8    5.8 1.0 0.0
13-3 75.0% 9.0    5.8 3.0 0.2
12-4 42.0% 6.8    2.8 3.1 0.8 0.0
11-5 13.3% 2.2    0.4 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 28.8% 28.8 18.4 8.3 1.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.6% 56.6% 56.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-1 3.0% 46.3% 46.3% 12.6 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.6
14-2 7.2% 41.0% 41.0% 13.1 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.8 0.1 4.2
13-3 12.0% 32.7% 32.7% 13.5 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 8.1
12-4 16.1% 28.1% 28.1% 13.9 0.1 1.2 2.3 0.8 0.0 11.6
11-5 16.7% 22.1% 22.1% 14.3 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.4 0.1 13.0
10-6 15.2% 17.3% 17.3% 14.6 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.2 12.6
9-7 12.1% 13.9% 13.9% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.3 10.5
8-8 8.1% 10.2% 10.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 7.3
7-9 4.7% 8.4% 8.4% 15.7 0.1 0.3 4.3
6-10 2.6% 5.7% 5.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.5
5-11 1.0% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.0
4-12 0.4% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-13 0.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 22.6% 22.6% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.9 8.0 5.5 1.3 77.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.4 2.2 3.2 51.6 40.9 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%