Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#192
Expected Predictive Rating+1.1#150
Pace74.6#53
Improvement-4.2#355

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#146
First Shot+1.8#126
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#253
Layup/Dunks+6.8#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#279
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#222
Freethrows-1.5#271
Improvement-1.6#301

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#242
First Shot-5.3#339
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#13
Layups/Dunks-10.0#363
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#270
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#3
Freethrows-2.2#313
Improvement-2.6#336
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.2% 17.7% 13.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 72.0% 79.5% 57.1%
.500 or above in Conference 80.7% 83.5% 75.0%
Conference Champion 21.5% 23.9% 16.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 1.7% 3.3%
First Four1.0% 0.8% 1.5%
First Round15.7% 17.3% 12.5%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Away) - 66.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 34 - 44 - 8
Quad 413 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 73   @ Colorado L 88-90 2OT 13%     0 - 1 +8.5 +3.6 +5.4
  Nov 14, 2024 123   South Dakota St. W 78-69 35%     1 - 1 +11.5 +5.4 +6.0
  Nov 18, 2024 68   @ Washington St. L 69-83 12%     1 - 2 -3.0 +1.7 -4.6
  Nov 20, 2024 175   @ California Baptist W 79-68 36%     2 - 2 +13.2 +2.1 +10.6
  Nov 23, 2024 340   Prairie View W 114-98 88%     3 - 2 +1.8 +14.1 -14.6
  Nov 29, 2024 25   @ Texas Tech L 64-89 5%     3 - 3 -8.2 -1.7 -6.5
  Dec 04, 2024 143   St. Thomas L 75-87 53%     3 - 4 -14.2 +3.8 -18.8
  Dec 07, 2024 131   @ North Dakota St. L 70-82 27%     3 - 5 -7.2 -11.1 +5.0
  Dec 16, 2024 267   Air Force W 81-76 75%     4 - 5 -3.7 +2.4 -6.2
  Dec 21, 2024 325   @ Denver W 80-75 67%    
  Jan 02, 2025 208   Weber St. W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 04, 2025 231   Idaho St. W 74-69 69%    
  Jan 09, 2025 139   @ Montana St. L 73-79 30%    
  Jan 11, 2025 212   @ Montana L 78-80 42%    
  Jan 16, 2025 276   Portland St. W 84-76 75%    
  Jan 18, 2025 329   Sacramento St. W 76-65 85%    
  Jan 23, 2025 291   @ Idaho W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 25, 2025 251   @ Eastern Washington W 81-80 52%    
  Feb 01, 2025 286   Northern Arizona W 82-74 77%    
  Feb 03, 2025 231   @ Idaho St. L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 06, 2025 212   Montana W 81-77 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 139   Montana St. W 77-76 51%    
  Feb 13, 2025 329   @ Sacramento St. W 73-68 69%    
  Feb 15, 2025 276   @ Portland St. W 81-79 55%    
  Feb 20, 2025 251   Eastern Washington W 84-77 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 291   Idaho W 80-72 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 286   @ Northern Arizona W 79-77 58%    
  Mar 03, 2025 208   @ Weber St. L 74-76 43%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.8 6.1 4.6 2.6 0.9 0.2 21.5 1st
2nd 0.4 3.3 6.8 5.7 2.4 0.5 0.0 19.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.4 6.7 4.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.2 3.3 0.5 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.1 5.5 7.9 10.8 13.2 14.0 13.7 11.6 8.6 5.1 2.6 0.9 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.8 0.0
16-2 98.4% 2.6    2.4 0.2
15-3 91.0% 4.6    3.8 0.8 0.0
14-4 71.1% 6.1    4.1 1.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 41.3% 4.8    2.0 2.1 0.6 0.0 0.0
12-6 14.7% 2.0    0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.5% 21.5 13.8 5.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 54.5% 54.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.9% 49.9% 49.9% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.6% 42.2% 42.2% 13.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.5
15-3 5.1% 36.1% 36.1% 13.7 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.3
14-4 8.6% 28.6% 28.6% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.0 6.1
13-5 11.6% 23.4% 23.4% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.1 8.9
12-6 13.7% 18.1% 18.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.3 11.2
11-7 14.0% 14.1% 14.1% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.5 12.0
10-8 13.2% 11.6% 11.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.5 11.7
9-9 10.8% 7.6% 7.6% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 10.0
8-10 7.9% 5.3% 5.3% 15.9 0.0 0.4 7.5
7-11 5.5% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.2 5.3
6-12 3.1% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 3.0
5-13 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.7
4-14 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.2% 16.2% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.9 5.9 2.7 83.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.7 5.7 31.4 45.7 17.1