Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#166
Expected Predictive Rating+5.0#99
Pace73.1#68
Improvement-2.0#270

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#104
First Shot+4.9#56
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#305
Layup/Dunks+6.9#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#274
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#181
Freethrows-0.3#196
Improvement+0.9#124

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#263
First Shot-6.3#348
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#4
Layups/Dunks-6.3#357
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#314
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#31
Freethrows-2.0#309
Improvement-2.9#324
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.9% 29.7% 23.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 99.1% 99.8% 98.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.9% 99.4%
Conference Champion 76.7% 86.3% 64.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round26.9% 29.7% 23.4%
Second Round1.3% 1.6% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Away) - 55.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 36 - 7
Quad 414 - 320 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 94   @ Colorado L 88-90 2OT 20%     0 - 1 +6.8 +3.2 +3.9
  Nov 14, 2024 114   South Dakota St. W 78-69 38%     1 - 1 +11.9 +4.9 +7.0
  Nov 18, 2024 85   @ Washington St. L 69-83 18%     1 - 2 -4.5 +0.4 -4.7
  Nov 20, 2024 172   @ California Baptist W 79-68 40%     2 - 2 +13.3 +3.7 +9.1
  Nov 23, 2024 330   Prairie View W 114-98 89%     3 - 2 +2.6 +16.9 -16.6
  Nov 29, 2024 17   @ Texas Tech L 64-89 5%     3 - 3 -5.8 -0.9 -4.8
  Dec 04, 2024 125   St. Thomas L 75-87 51%     3 - 4 -12.3 +3.5 -16.6
  Dec 07, 2024 112   @ North Dakota St. L 70-82 28%     3 - 5 -6.2 -11.4 +6.4
  Dec 16, 2024 275   Air Force W 81-76 80%     4 - 5 -4.2 +2.7 -7.0
  Dec 21, 2024 340   @ Denver W 82-75 79%     5 - 5 -1.8 +10.9 -12.1
  Jan 02, 2025 237   Weber St. W 89-72 75%     6 - 5 1 - 0 +9.9 +11.4 -1.4
  Jan 04, 2025 217   Idaho St. W 93-92 OT 71%     7 - 5 2 - 0 -4.9 +8.6 -13.5
  Jan 09, 2025 180   @ Montana St. W 83-82 42%     8 - 5 3 - 0 +2.9 +15.1 -12.2
  Jan 11, 2025 226   @ Montana W 81-57 53%     9 - 5 4 - 0 +23.1 +6.9 +16.1
  Jan 16, 2025 227   Portland St. W 72-69 73%     10 - 5 5 - 0 -3.5 +0.1 -3.5
  Jan 18, 2025 337   Sacramento St. W 68-64 90%     11 - 5 6 - 0 -10.2 -0.2 -9.5
  Jan 23, 2025 246   @ Idaho W 79-77 55%    
  Jan 25, 2025 257   @ Eastern Washington W 81-79 58%    
  Feb 01, 2025 264   Northern Arizona W 83-75 79%    
  Feb 03, 2025 217   @ Idaho St. W 74-73 50%    
  Feb 06, 2025 226   Montana W 82-76 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 180   Montana St. W 78-75 62%    
  Feb 13, 2025 337   @ Sacramento St. W 75-66 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 227   @ Portland St. W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 20, 2025 257   Eastern Washington W 84-76 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 246   Idaho W 82-75 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 264   @ Northern Arizona W 80-77 60%    
  Mar 03, 2025 237   @ Weber St. W 77-76 55%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.8 5.7 15.0 19.3 17.6 12.2 5.1 1.0 76.7 1st
2nd 0.2 3.0 5.7 3.2 1.0 0.1 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 3.0 1.2 0.1 5.4 3rd
4th 0.3 1.7 0.7 0.1 2.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.6 7.5 12.7 18.4 20.3 17.8 12.2 5.1 1.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 100.0% 5.1    5.1
16-2 100.0% 12.2    12.1 0.1
15-3 99.2% 17.6    17.0 0.6
14-4 95.2% 19.3    16.6 2.7 0.1
13-5 81.9% 15.0    9.2 5.1 0.8 0.0
12-6 45.1% 5.7    1.7 2.5 1.3 0.2
11-7 10.3% 0.8    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 76.7% 76.7 62.6 11.1 2.4 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 49.0% 49.0% 12.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5
17-1 5.1% 42.3% 42.3% 13.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.9
16-2 12.2% 36.5% 36.5% 13.5 0.0 0.2 1.9 2.2 0.2 7.7
15-3 17.8% 33.3% 33.3% 13.9 0.1 1.7 3.2 1.0 11.8
14-4 20.3% 27.7% 27.7% 14.2 0.7 3.0 1.8 0.0 14.7
13-5 18.4% 22.3% 22.3% 14.5 0.2 1.8 2.0 0.1 14.3
12-6 12.7% 18.4% 18.4% 14.8 0.7 1.4 0.2 10.4
11-7 7.5% 17.5% 17.5% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.3 6.2
10-8 3.6% 11.5% 11.5% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 3.1
9-9 1.3% 7.8% 7.8% 15.4 0.1 0.0 1.2
8-10 0.3% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.9% 26.9% 0.0% 14.0 0.1 1.1 5.8 11.6 7.6 0.8 73.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 12.1 12.2 63.3 22.4 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%