California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#175
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#219
Pace64.2#306
Improvement+0.4#158

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#128
First Shot+1.3#139
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#161
Layup/Dunks+6.6#17
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#246
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#301
Freethrows-0.2#193
Improvement-1.0#268

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#251
First Shot-0.9#195
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#301
Layups/Dunks-0.8#198
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#274
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#217
Freethrows+1.6#73
Improvement+1.4#73
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 10.2% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 54.2% 65.2% 40.7%
.500 or above in Conference 64.7% 68.7% 59.8%
Conference Champion 9.9% 11.8% 7.5%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 4.0% 6.5%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round8.8% 10.1% 7.1%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Away) - 55.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 34 - 65 - 12
Quad 411 - 416 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 307   Incarnate Word W 83-78 83%     1 - 0 -5.8 +5.5 -11.1
  Nov 09, 2024 154   Kennesaw St. W 88-84 57%     2 - 0 +1.3 +8.5 -7.4
  Nov 12, 2024 177   UC Riverside L 69-70 62%     2 - 1 -4.9 -1.7 -3.2
  Nov 15, 2024 337   LIU Brooklyn W 90-77 88%     3 - 1 -0.8 +16.2 -16.4
  Nov 20, 2024 192   Northern Colorado L 68-79 64%     3 - 2 -15.5 -11.2 -3.9
  Nov 23, 2024 251   Eastern Washington W 79-68 76%     4 - 2 +2.9 +3.6 +0.0
  Nov 26, 2024 49   SMU L 77-79 15%     4 - 3 +8.3 +14.8 -6.7
  Nov 27, 2024 256   Fresno St. W 86-81 2OT 67%     5 - 3 -0.3 -1.7 +0.5
  Dec 01, 2024 82   @ Central Florida L 59-74 16%     5 - 4 -5.3 -7.9 +2.5
  Dec 11, 2024 45   @ San Diego St. L 75-81 9%     5 - 5 +8.0 +20.9 -13.8
  Dec 16, 2024 130   @ Middle Tennessee L 64-75 29%     5 - 6 -6.2 -6.7 +0.6
  Dec 21, 2024 256   @ Fresno St. W 74-73 55%    
  Dec 28, 2024 311   Jackson St. W 76-66 83%    
  Dec 30, 2024 63   UC Irvine L 66-73 27%    
  Jan 04, 2025 140   Seattle W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 11, 2025 165   @ Utah Valley L 69-72 38%    
  Jan 16, 2025 303   @ Tarleton St. W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 18, 2025 188   @ Abilene Christian L 70-72 41%    
  Jan 23, 2025 165   Utah Valley W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 25, 2025 210   @ Southern Utah L 74-75 44%    
  Jan 30, 2025 188   Abilene Christian W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 06, 2025 210   Southern Utah W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 102   Grand Canyon L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 13, 2025 162   @ Texas Arlington L 75-79 37%    
  Feb 15, 2025 298   Utah Tech W 76-67 81%    
  Feb 22, 2025 102   @ Grand Canyon L 70-79 22%    
  Feb 27, 2025 140   @ Seattle L 68-73 33%    
  Mar 01, 2025 298   @ Utah Tech W 73-70 62%    
  Mar 06, 2025 303   Tarleton St. W 73-63 81%    
  Mar 08, 2025 162   Texas Arlington W 78-76 59%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.2 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 9.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.3 5.5 2.7 0.6 0.0 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 5.7 6.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.7 6.8 1.8 0.1 15.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.0 6.9 1.7 0.1 14.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 4.1 5.7 1.9 0.1 12.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 3.1 4.5 1.5 0.1 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.3 0.8 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.5 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.5 6.2 10.2 13.2 15.7 15.2 13.3 9.7 6.1 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
14-2 97.2% 1.3    1.1 0.1
13-3 82.2% 2.6    1.8 0.7 0.0
12-4 52.0% 3.2    1.4 1.4 0.3 0.0
11-5 21.1% 2.0    0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 9.9% 9.9 5.2 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 45.0% 45.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.4% 35.0% 35.0% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
14-2 1.3% 38.0% 38.0% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-3 3.2% 27.1% 27.1% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.3
12-4 6.1% 23.9% 23.9% 13.8 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 4.6
11-5 9.7% 20.1% 20.1% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 7.7
10-6 13.3% 12.7% 12.7% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.1 11.6
9-7 15.2% 7.4% 7.4% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 14.1
8-8 15.7% 3.9% 3.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 15.0
7-9 13.2% 2.6% 2.6% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 12.9
6-10 10.2% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 10.0
5-11 6.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.2
4-12 3.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.5
3-13 1.5% 1.5
2-14 0.5% 0.5
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.1 3.0 0.8 91.1 0.0%