Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.4#242
Expected Predictive Rating-4.9#245
Pace70.5#129
Improvement-2.4#291

Offense
Total Offense-5.9#324
First Shot-4.9#311
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#254
Layup/Dunks+0.9#143
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-10.3#362
Freethrows+1.4#94
Improvement-4.8#359

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#129
First Shot-1.5#226
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#7
Layups/Dunks-2.0#261
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#74
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#62
Freethrows-3.9#358
Improvement+2.4#62
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.4% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.9
.500 or above 4.6% 6.4% 1.0%
.500 or above in Conference 14.1% 18.9% 4.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 36.9% 28.7% 53.2%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
First Round0.9% 1.2% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Home) - 66.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 84 - 12
Quad 47 - 611 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 111   Middle Tennessee L 56-79 32%     0 - 1 -22.6 -16.7 -5.5
  Nov 16, 2024 167   Texas St. W 72-60 45%     1 - 1 +9.0 -3.6 +12.7
  Nov 20, 2024 183   @ Kennesaw St. L 78-84 28%     1 - 2 -4.2 +2.9 -6.8
  Nov 25, 2024 258   Southern Miss W 82-74 54%     2 - 2 +2.5 +11.5 -8.6
  Nov 26, 2024 180   @ Montana St. L 59-85 27%     2 - 3 -24.1 -7.3 -19.1
  Nov 30, 2024 222   @ Nebraska Omaha W 71-55 36%     3 - 3 +15.4 +0.3 +16.0
  Dec 04, 2024 128   @ New Mexico St. W 78-70 19%     4 - 3 +13.0 +13.2 +0.3
  Dec 09, 2024 22   @ Baylor L 57-88 3%     4 - 4 -13.0 -4.9 -10.1
  Dec 18, 2024 354   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 67-68 73%     4 - 5 -11.7 -11.0 -0.7
  Dec 21, 2024 300   Texas Southern W 69-65 72%     5 - 5 -6.5 -12.2 +5.3
  Dec 28, 2024 21   @ Texas A&M L 54-92 3%     5 - 6 -19.9 -8.3 -12.0
  Dec 31, 2024 249   Stephen F. Austin L 57-62 63%     5 - 7 -12.7 -17.5 +5.2
  Jan 04, 2025 140   @ Utah Valley L 53-64 21%     5 - 8 0 - 1 -6.7 -16.9 +10.5
  Jan 11, 2025 150   @ Seattle L 64-66 22%     5 - 9 0 - 2 +1.7 -1.3 +2.9
  Jan 16, 2025 83   @ Grand Canyon L 58-88 10%     5 - 10 0 - 3 -20.5 -10.6 -8.9
  Jan 18, 2025 172   California Baptist L 54-60 45%     5 - 11 0 - 4 -9.2 -18.0 +8.5
  Jan 23, 2025 262   Tarleton St. W 66-62 66%    
  Jan 25, 2025 201   Texas Arlington W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 30, 2025 172   @ California Baptist L 64-71 25%    
  Feb 06, 2025 284   @ Utah Tech L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 08, 2025 240   @ Southern Utah L 69-72 38%    
  Feb 13, 2025 150   Seattle L 66-69 41%    
  Feb 20, 2025 240   Southern Utah W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 22, 2025 284   Utah Tech W 72-67 70%    
  Feb 27, 2025 262   @ Tarleton St. L 64-65 43%    
  Mar 01, 2025 201   @ Texas Arlington L 71-76 31%    
  Mar 06, 2025 140   Utah Valley L 66-69 40%    
  Mar 08, 2025 83   Grand Canyon L 68-76 22%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.7 0.1 3.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 4.0 1.8 0.2 7.9 4th
5th 0.0 2.5 7.5 3.4 0.3 0.0 13.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 9.0 4.4 0.4 15.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 8.9 6.0 0.5 17.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.1 7.6 7.3 1.1 0.0 18.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.6 5.0 8.3 6.7 1.4 0.0 23.2 9th
Total 0.2 1.6 5.1 10.5 15.9 19.6 18.7 14.3 8.5 3.8 1.4 0.3 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 20.0% 0.0    0.0
11-5 12.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 2.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.1% 0.1
11-5 0.3% 15.2% 15.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.3
10-6 1.4% 5.6% 5.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 1.3
9-7 3.8% 6.0% 6.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.6
8-8 8.5% 3.2% 3.2% 15.6 0.1 0.2 8.2
7-9 14.3% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 14.1
6-10 18.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 18.6
5-11 19.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 19.5
4-12 15.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.8
3-13 10.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.5
2-14 5.1% 5.1
1-15 1.6% 1.6
0-16 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 15.6 0.1 0.3 0.7 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%