Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#188
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#154
Pace68.2#201
Improvement+1.4#86

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#190
First Shot+2.5#107
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#337
Layup/Dunks+2.9#87
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#34
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.4#353
Freethrows+3.7#23
Improvement+1.7#55

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#192
First Shot-3.2#284
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#26
Layups/Dunks-0.7#197
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#89
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#188
Freethrows-3.7#353
Improvement-0.3#218
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 8.8% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 57.4% 62.5% 36.1%
.500 or above in Conference 58.7% 61.2% 48.4%
Conference Champion 8.6% 9.4% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 7.1% 6.3% 10.5%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round7.9% 8.7% 4.9%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Away) - 80.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 75 - 11
Quad 410 - 415 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 130   Middle Tennessee L 56-79 49%     0 - 1 -24.2 -17.9 -5.9
  Nov 16, 2024 138   Texas St. W 72-60 52%     1 - 1 +10.2 -1.5 +11.8
  Nov 20, 2024 154   @ Kennesaw St. L 78-84 33%     1 - 2 -2.7 +3.5 -5.9
  Nov 25, 2024 282   Southern Miss W 82-74 69%     2 - 2 +1.6 +11.8 -9.8
  Nov 26, 2024 139   @ Montana St. L 59-85 30%     2 - 3 -21.9 -6.9 -17.2
  Nov 30, 2024 294   @ Nebraska Omaha W 71-55 60%     3 - 3 +12.0 +0.0 +12.9
  Dec 04, 2024 199   @ New Mexico St. W 78-70 40%     4 - 3 +9.2 +11.3 -1.6
  Dec 09, 2024 12   @ Baylor L 57-88 4%     4 - 4 -12.1 -6.1 -7.9
  Dec 18, 2024 357   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 74-65 81%    
  Dec 21, 2024 300   Texas Southern W 77-68 80%    
  Dec 28, 2024 24   @ Texas A&M L 61-79 4%    
  Dec 31, 2024 214   Stephen F. Austin W 67-63 66%    
  Jan 04, 2025 165   @ Utah Valley L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 11, 2025 140   @ Seattle L 69-74 30%    
  Jan 16, 2025 102   @ Grand Canyon L 70-79 20%    
  Jan 18, 2025 175   California Baptist W 72-70 59%    
  Jan 23, 2025 303   Tarleton St. W 73-64 80%    
  Jan 25, 2025 162   Texas Arlington W 79-77 56%    
  Jan 30, 2025 175   @ California Baptist L 69-73 37%    
  Feb 06, 2025 298   @ Utah Tech W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 210   @ Southern Utah L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 13, 2025 140   Seattle W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 20, 2025 210   Southern Utah W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 298   Utah Tech W 77-68 79%    
  Feb 27, 2025 303   @ Tarleton St. W 70-67 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 162   @ Texas Arlington L 76-80 35%    
  Mar 06, 2025 165   Utah Valley W 72-70 57%    
  Mar 08, 2025 102   Grand Canyon L 73-76 38%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.7 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 8.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.0 4.9 2.3 0.4 0.1 12.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 5.3 5.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.4 6.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 14.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.1 6.6 1.7 0.1 0.0 14.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.6 6.2 1.8 0.1 13.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.9 5.0 1.6 0.1 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 3.0 0.9 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.7 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.7 8.0 11.4 13.9 14.9 14.1 11.8 8.6 5.2 2.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-2 95.6% 1.1    1.0 0.1
13-3 83.6% 2.3    1.6 0.6 0.0
12-4 52.3% 2.7    1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0
11-5 21.3% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 8.6% 8.6 4.7 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.3% 42.0% 42.0% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
14-2 1.1% 37.0% 37.0% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-3 2.7% 33.5% 33.5% 13.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.8
12-4 5.2% 25.1% 25.1% 13.6 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.9
11-5 8.6% 18.9% 18.9% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 6.9
10-6 11.8% 12.3% 12.3% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 10.4
9-7 14.1% 7.9% 7.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 13.0
8-8 14.9% 3.8% 3.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 14.3
7-9 13.9% 1.9% 1.9% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 13.6
6-10 11.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.2
5-11 8.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.9
4-12 4.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.7
3-13 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.3
2-14 0.8% 0.8
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.0 2.0 0.4 92.0 0.0%