Baylor
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.2#22
Expected Predictive Rating+13.6#33
Pace64.9#269
Improvement+0.2#166

Offense
Total Offense+9.5#16
First Shot+6.5#37
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#28
Layup/Dunks+1.5#132
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#18
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#84
Freethrows-2.2#306
Improvement-2.7#318

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#44
First Shot+4.5#50
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#78
Layups/Dunks+11.3#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#346
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#343
Freethrows+1.1#108
Improvement+2.9#48
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.7% 3.0% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 16.8% 18.4% 6.8%
Top 6 Seed 44.9% 48.0% 24.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.7% 88.6% 74.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.0% 88.0% 73.6%
Average Seed 6.6 6.4 7.6
.500 or above 95.4% 96.7% 87.1%
.500 or above in Conference 81.3% 84.7% 60.3%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four6.6% 5.8% 11.2%
First Round84.0% 86.1% 70.4%
Second Round58.9% 61.2% 44.1%
Sweet Sixteen27.0% 28.5% 17.9%
Elite Eight11.3% 12.0% 6.6%
Final Four4.5% 4.9% 2.2%
Championship Game1.7% 1.9% 0.4%
National Champion0.6% 0.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Home) - 86.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 93 - 9
Quad 1b4 - 17 - 11
Quad 24 - 112 - 12
Quad 33 - 115 - 13
Quad 44 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 14   @ Gonzaga L 63-101 34%     0 - 1 -18.6 -4.1 -14.3
  Nov 09, 2024 46   Arkansas W 72-67 66%     1 - 1 +16.1 +11.2 +5.2
  Nov 12, 2024 170   Sam Houston St. W 104-67 95%     2 - 1 +33.9 +23.1 +9.1
  Nov 17, 2024 262   Tarleton St. W 104-41 98%     3 - 1 +54.6 +29.4 +24.6
  Nov 21, 2024 16   St. John's W 99-98 2OT 45%     4 - 1 +17.5 +15.2 +2.0
  Nov 22, 2024 8   Tennessee L 62-77 37%     4 - 2 +3.7 +9.0 -7.4
  Nov 27, 2024 343   New Orleans W 91-60 99%     5 - 2 +16.5 +18.1 +1.1
  Dec 04, 2024 24   @ Connecticut L 72-76 40%     5 - 3 +13.8 +15.1 -1.9
  Dec 09, 2024 242   Abilene Christian W 88-57 97%     6 - 3 +23.8 +21.0 +4.8
  Dec 11, 2024 182   Norfolk St. W 94-69 95%     7 - 3 +21.4 +18.5 +2.9
  Dec 31, 2024 69   Utah W 81-56 82%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +30.3 +4.0 +24.1
  Jan 04, 2025 4   @ Iowa St. L 55-74 22%     8 - 4 1 - 1 +4.2 -1.5 +4.2
  Jan 07, 2025 39   Cincinnati W 68-48 72%     9 - 4 2 - 1 +29.1 +15.1 +17.4
  Jan 11, 2025 64   @ Arizona St. W 72-66 OT 65%     10 - 4 3 - 1 +17.3 +6.8 +10.6
  Jan 14, 2025 13   @ Arizona L 70-81 33%     10 - 5 3 - 2 +8.7 +9.0 -0.7
  Jan 19, 2025 62   TCU L 71-74 81%     10 - 6 3 - 3 +2.9 +6.4 -3.6
  Jan 22, 2025 89   Kansas St. W 78-66 86%    
  Jan 25, 2025 69   @ Utah W 76-72 66%    
  Jan 28, 2025 44   @ BYU W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 01, 2025 6   Kansas L 71-73 46%    
  Feb 04, 2025 17   @ Texas Tech L 70-74 34%    
  Feb 08, 2025 71   Central Florida W 80-70 84%    
  Feb 10, 2025 3   @ Houston L 61-70 19%    
  Feb 15, 2025 32   West Virginia W 70-65 69%    
  Feb 17, 2025 13   Arizona W 77-76 55%    
  Feb 22, 2025 94   @ Colorado W 74-68 72%    
  Feb 25, 2025 39   @ Cincinnati W 67-66 52%    
  Mar 01, 2025 101   Oklahoma St. W 80-67 90%    
  Mar 04, 2025 62   @ TCU W 71-67 64%    
  Mar 08, 2025 3   Houston L 64-68 38%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.6 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.4 1.6 0.1 6.6 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 5.5 3.2 0.3 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 6.3 5.7 0.8 0.0 14.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 6.4 7.7 1.9 0.0 17.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 6.1 8.3 2.6 0.2 17.9 7th
8th 0.2 3.1 6.0 2.3 0.1 11.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 4.2 2.0 0.1 7.8 9th
10th 0.3 2.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 4.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 5.6 10.3 15.6 19.0 18.8 14.8 8.3 3.6 1.1 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.1
16-4 34.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 9.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 1.1% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 2.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.6% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 3.1 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.3% 100.0% 9.5% 90.5% 4.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.0 2.0 0.7 0.1 100.0%
13-7 14.8% 100.0% 6.6% 93.4% 5.1 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.3 4.8 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 18.8% 99.6% 4.7% 94.9% 6.1 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.3 5.8 5.0 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.1 99.6%
11-9 19.0% 98.5% 3.2% 95.3% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 3.7 5.0 4.9 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.3 98.4%
10-10 15.6% 91.1% 1.7% 89.4% 8.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.6 2.5 3.9 3.5 1.8 0.0 1.4 90.9%
9-11 10.3% 58.3% 1.3% 57.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 3.0 0.5 4.3 57.8%
8-12 5.6% 18.7% 1.2% 17.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 4.6 17.7%
7-13 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 11.0 0.0 2.0 2.0%
6-14 0.7% 0.7
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 86.7% 4.4% 82.2% 6.6 0.6 2.1 5.3 8.9 13.3 14.8 13.1 9.4 7.2 5.8 5.5 0.7 13.4 86.0%