Baylor
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.9#12
Expected Predictive Rating+16.4#22
Pace64.9#285
Improvement+1.8#66

Offense
Total Offense+11.5#6
First Shot+7.9#20
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#16
Layup/Dunks+2.5#96
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#18
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#73
Freethrows-2.3#307
Improvement+0.8#114

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#63
First Shot+4.3#60
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#170
Layups/Dunks+11.5#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#346
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#345
Freethrows+1.5#85
Improvement+1.0#105
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.3%
#1 Seed 7.4% 8.3% 2.6%
Top 2 Seed 19.9% 22.1% 8.4%
Top 4 Seed 50.6% 54.0% 32.8%
Top 6 Seed 72.2% 75.5% 55.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.0% 93.9% 82.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.1% 93.1% 81.0%
Average Seed 4.7 4.5 5.7
.500 or above 95.6% 97.0% 88.2%
.500 or above in Conference 87.9% 90.8% 72.6%
Conference Champion 11.9% 13.4% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 1.0%
First Four3.6% 3.0% 6.4%
First Round90.5% 92.6% 79.6%
Second Round73.6% 76.1% 60.1%
Sweet Sixteen42.5% 44.7% 31.2%
Elite Eight20.9% 22.3% 13.4%
Final Four9.7% 10.3% 6.2%
Championship Game4.3% 4.6% 2.8%
National Champion1.8% 1.9% 1.2%

Next Game: Utah (Home) - 84.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 10
Quad 25 - 113 - 11
Quad 34 - 017 - 11
Quad 44 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 3   @ Gonzaga L 63-101 24%     0 - 1 -14.8 -1.2 -13.5
  Nov 09, 2024 29   Arkansas W 72-67 62%     1 - 1 +17.8 +11.3 +6.9
  Nov 12, 2024 128   Sam Houston St. W 104-67 93%     2 - 1 +36.0 +24.2 +10.2
  Nov 17, 2024 303   Tarleton St. W 104-41 98%     3 - 1 +52.4 +27.6 +24.2
  Nov 21, 2024 15   St. John's W 99-98 2OT 53%     4 - 1 +16.3 +11.7 +4.3
  Nov 22, 2024 4   Tennessee L 62-77 35%     4 - 2 +5.0 +10.0 -7.1
  Nov 27, 2024 346   New Orleans W 91-60 99%     5 - 2 +16.3 +18.9 +0.1
  Dec 04, 2024 9   @ Connecticut L 72-76 33%     5 - 3 +16.5 +17.2 -1.4
  Dec 09, 2024 188   Abilene Christian W 88-57 96%     6 - 3 +26.7 +18.8 +9.9
  Dec 11, 2024 196   Norfolk St. W 94-69 96%     7 - 3 +20.3 +17.8 +2.5
  Dec 31, 2024 66   Utah W 81-70 84%    
  Jan 04, 2025 5   @ Iowa St. L 73-80 27%    
  Jan 07, 2025 27   Cincinnati W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 11, 2025 61   @ Arizona St. W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 14, 2025 21   @ Arizona L 78-79 45%    
  Jan 19, 2025 86   TCU W 78-65 88%    
  Jan 22, 2025 64   Kansas St. W 78-68 83%    
  Jan 25, 2025 66   @ Utah W 78-73 66%    
  Jan 28, 2025 44   @ BYU W 78-76 57%    
  Feb 01, 2025 10   Kansas W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 04, 2025 25   @ Texas Tech L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 82   Central Florida W 80-68 87%    
  Feb 10, 2025 6   @ Houston L 64-70 29%    
  Feb 15, 2025 42   West Virginia W 76-68 75%    
  Feb 17, 2025 21   Arizona W 81-76 66%    
  Feb 22, 2025 73   @ Colorado W 75-70 69%    
  Feb 25, 2025 27   @ Cincinnati L 71-72 49%    
  Mar 01, 2025 85   Oklahoma St. W 84-71 87%    
  Mar 04, 2025 86   @ TCU W 75-68 72%    
  Mar 08, 2025 6   Houston L 67-68 49%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.5 3.4 1.9 0.7 0.1 11.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.2 5.3 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.6 6.0 3.5 0.7 0.1 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.1 3.4 0.6 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 2.1 5.4 3.5 0.6 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.2 3.5 0.7 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.3 0.8 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.9 1.1 0.1 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.4 0.1 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.3 5.6 8.4 11.2 13.6 14.6 13.7 11.2 7.7 4.5 2.0 0.7 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.3% 0.7    0.7 0.0
18-2 92.6% 1.9    1.6 0.3 0.0
17-3 75.4% 3.4    2.2 1.1 0.1
16-4 44.7% 3.5    1.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0
15-5 16.7% 1.9    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.9% 11.9 6.6 3.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 46.7% 53.3% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 41.9% 58.1% 1.2 0.5 0.2 100.0%
18-2 2.0% 100.0% 31.0% 69.0% 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.5% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 1.7 2.0 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.7% 100.0% 21.2% 78.8% 2.1 1.9 3.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 100.0%
15-5 11.2% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 2.8 1.1 3.5 4.0 2.1 0.4 0.1 100.0%
14-6 13.7% 100.0% 12.8% 87.2% 3.5 0.4 2.0 4.7 4.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.6% 100.0% 9.6% 90.4% 4.3 0.1 0.7 2.9 4.8 3.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 13.6% 99.8% 5.2% 94.6% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 4.1 3.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-9 11.2% 99.1% 4.0% 95.1% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.7 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 99.0%
10-10 8.4% 94.1% 2.5% 91.6% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.5 0.8 0.0 0.5 94.0%
9-11 5.6% 69.6% 1.9% 67.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.8 0.3 1.7 69.0%
8-12 3.3% 25.4% 0.8% 24.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.5 24.7%
7-13 1.9% 4.3% 0.7% 3.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 3.5%
6-14 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.2%
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 92.0% 10.4% 81.6% 4.7 7.4 12.5 15.3 15.4 12.5 9.1 6.0 3.9 3.3 2.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 8.0 91.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 89.3 10.7