IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Baylor
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+15.1	#13
Expected Predictive Rating	+18.2	#12

Pace	64.9	#311
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+10.1	#6

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+5.0	#47

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	2.2%	2.2%	0.0%
#1 Seed	10.0%	10.0%	2.4%
Top 2 Seed	23.1%	23.3%	4.4%
Top 4 Seed	49.0%	49.2%	18.1%
Top 6 Seed	64.9%	65.2%	30.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	83.4%	83.6%	55.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	82.1%	82.3%	53.5%
Average Seed	4.6	4.6	6.6

.500 or above	87.1%	87.4%	56.2%
.500 or above in Conference	74.8%	75.0%	51.8%
Conference Champion	8.4%	8.5%	3.2%
Last Place in Conference	1.2%	1.1%	8.4%

First Four	5.1%	5.1%	9.2%
First Round	81.1%	81.3%	51.4%
Second Round	64.9%	65.1%	34.1%
Sweet Sixteen	38.2%	38.4%	17.3%
Elite Eight	19.5%	19.6%	6.8%
Final Four	9.4%	9.4%	4.0%
Championship Game	4.5%	4.5%	1.6%
National Champion	2.1%	2.1%	0.0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Home) - 99.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	4 - 8	4 - 8
Quad 1b	4 - 2	8 - 10
Quad 2	5 - 1	12 - 11
Quad 3	3 - 0	15 - 12
Quad 4	4 - 0	19 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	4	@ Gonzaga	L	63-101	25%	0 - 1			-15.7	-3.1	-12.4
Nov 09, 2024	19	Arkansas	W	72-67	56%	1 - 1			+18.5	+12.4	+6.5
Nov 12, 2024	123	Sam Houston St.	W	104-67	91%	2 - 1			+36.9	+26.0	+9.3
Nov 17, 2024	299	Tarleton St.	W	83-58	99%
Nov 21, 2024	18	St. John's	W	75-74	55%
Nov 27, 2024	347	New Orleans	W	91-61	99.7%
Dec 04, 2024	1	@ Connecticut	L	65-73	23%
Dec 09, 2024	237	Abilene Christian	W	83-61	97%
Dec 11, 2024	230	Norfolk St.	W	81-60	97%
Dec 31, 2024	51	Utah	W	79-70	78%
Jan 04, 2025	11	@ Iowa St.	L	68-72	35%
Jan 07, 2025	22	Cincinnati	W	74-69	68%
Jan 11, 2025	72	@ Arizona St.	W	74-70	66%
Jan 14, 2025	8	@ Arizona	L	75-80	32%
Jan 19, 2025	53	TCU	W	79-70	78%
Jan 22, 2025	42	Kansas St.	W	74-67	74%
Jan 25, 2025	51	@ Utah	W	76-73	59%
Jan 28, 2025	32	@ BYU	W	75-74	50%
Feb 01, 2025	5	Kansas	L	75-76	47%
Feb 04, 2025	14	@ Texas Tech	L	70-73	41%
Feb 08, 2025	66	Central Florida	W	77-67	80%
Feb 10, 2025	2	@ Houston	L	63-71	26%
Feb 15, 2025	57	West Virginia	W	77-68	78%
Feb 17, 2025	8	Arizona	W	78-77	52%
Feb 22, 2025	76	@ Colorado	W	73-68	65%
Feb 25, 2025	22	@ Cincinnati	L	71-72	47%
Mar 01, 2025	87	Oklahoma St.	W	79-67	84%
Mar 04, 2025	53	@ TCU	W	76-73	60%
Mar 08, 2025	2	Houston	L	66-68	45%
Projected Record						18 - 11	12 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big 12 Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.0	0.3	1.2	2.3	2.3	1.6	0.6	0.1		8.4	1st
2nd													0.0	0.5	2.0	3.6	2.7	0.9	0.1				9.8	2nd
3rd												0.0	0.5	2.6	4.3	2.6	0.6	0.0					10.5	3rd
4th											0.0	0.3	2.3	4.4	2.8	0.6	0.0						10.4	4th
5th											0.2	1.9	4.7	3.1	0.6	0.0							10.5	5th
6th										0.0	1.0	4.0	3.7	0.8	0.0								9.6	6th
7th									0.0	0.5	3.0	3.8	1.1	0.1									8.5	7th
8th									0.1	2.0	3.6	1.4	0.1										7.3	8th
9th								0.1	1.0	3.2	1.8	0.3	0.0										6.3	9th
10th							0.0	0.5	2.1	2.1	0.4	0.0											5.1	10th
11th						0.0	0.2	1.4	2.2	0.7	0.1												4.5	11th
12th						0.1	0.7	1.6	0.8	0.1													3.3	12th
13th					0.0	0.5	1.1	0.7	0.1														2.5	13th
14th				0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.2	0.0														1.7	14th
15th			0.0	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0															1.2	15th
16th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0															0.5	16th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.7	2.8	4.4	6.4	8.6	10.1	11.8	12.2	11.5	10.0	8.0	5.6	3.3	1.7	0.6	0.1		Total

Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	100.0%	0.6		0.5	0.0
18-2	95.2%	1.6		1.3	0.3
17-3	70.9%	2.3		1.5	0.7	0.1	0.0
16-4	41.7%	2.3		1.0	1.0	0.3	0.1
15-5	15.1%	1.2		0.2	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0
14-6	2.6%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
13-7	0.1%	0.0			0.0			0.0
12-8	0.0%	0.0				0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	8.4%	8.4		4.7	2.6	0.8	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		100.0%	48.8%	51.2%	1.1		0.1	0.0																	100.0%
19-1	0.6%		100.0%	36.9%	63.1%	1.1		0.5	0.1																	100.0%
18-2	1.7%		100.0%	30.7%	69.3%	1.3		1.2	0.4	0.0																100.0%
17-3	3.3%		100.0%	24.0%	76.0%	1.4		2.0	1.2	0.1	0.0															100.0%
16-4	5.6%		100.0%	19.8%	80.2%	1.7		2.5	2.3	0.7	0.1	0.0														100.0%
15-5	8.0%		100.0%	16.6%	83.4%	2.2		2.0	3.4	2.0	0.5	0.1	0.0													100.0%
14-6	10.0%		100.0%	11.3%	88.7%	2.8		1.1	3.0	3.6	1.7	0.5	0.1	0.0												100.0%
13-7	11.5%		100.0%	8.4%	91.6%	3.5		0.4	1.7	3.6	3.5	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.0											100.0%
12-8	12.2%		99.9%	5.2%	94.8%	4.4		0.1	0.8	2.5	3.5	3.0	1.6	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0						0.0		99.9%
11-9	11.8%		99.4%	2.6%	96.8%	5.6		0.0	0.2	0.9	2.2	2.7	2.5	1.5	0.9	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0					0.1		99.4%
10-10	10.1%		95.4%	1.6%	93.8%	7.4			0.0	0.2	0.6	1.3	1.5	1.6	1.3	1.2	1.1	0.7	0.1					0.5		95.3%
9-11	8.6%		75.0%	0.8%	74.3%	9.4		0.0		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.7	0.9	1.0	1.8	0.8	0.0	0.0			2.1		74.9%
8-12	6.4%		35.9%	0.4%	35.6%	10.7					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.9	0.7	0.1	0.0			4.1		35.7%
7-13	4.4%		6.8%	0.1%	6.7%	11.3									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0				4.1		6.7%
6-14	2.8%		1.4%	0.1%	1.3%	11.3									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0					2.8		1.3%
5-15	1.7%		0.2%	0.2%		15.0																0.0		1.7
4-16	0.8%																							0.8
3-17	0.4%																							0.4
2-18	0.1%																							0.1
1-19	0.0%																							0.0
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		83.4%	7.3%	76.1%	4.6		10.0	13.1	13.7	12.1	9.3	6.6	4.3	3.2	2.8	2.6	3.7	1.8	0.1	0.0	0.0		16.6		82.1%