Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Houston 100.0%   1   22 - 4 14 - 1 26 - 5 18 - 2 +22.4      +11.5 10 +10.9 3 56.6 360 +20.7 6 +27.1 1
8 Arizona 100.0%   2   18 - 8 12 - 3 21 - 10 15 - 5 +18.7      +8.5 22 +10.2 6 74.7 39 +16.7 17 +21.7 2
9 Iowa St. 100.0%   5   21 - 5 11 - 4 24 - 7 14 - 6 +18.7      +8.6 20 +10.1 8 70.3 123 +18.5 9 +17.6 4
10 Texas Tech 100.0%   3   20 - 6 11 - 4 23 - 8 14 - 6 +18.4      +11.2 11 +7.2 29 65.2 261 +16.5 19 +19.0 3
19 Kansas 98.3%   6   17 - 9 8 - 7 20 - 11 11 - 9 +16.1      +5.9 51 +10.3 5 71.1 99 +15.3 26 +13.0 8
24 Baylor 93.1%   8   15 - 10 8 - 7 18 - 12 11 - 9 +15.4      +10.2 12 +5.2 52 64.1 290 +14.6 32 +14.0 7
26 BYU 88.7%   9   18 - 8 9 - 6 21 - 10 12 - 8 +14.9      +10.0 13 +4.9 60 67.9 190 +12.9 41 +14.1 5
41 West Virginia 79.4%   9   16 - 10 7 - 8 19 - 12 10 - 10 +12.1      +3.3 88 +8.8 13 62.5 328 +13.5 37 +12.1 10
46 Cincinnati 20.3%   15 - 11 5 - 10 18 - 13 8 - 12 +11.3      +3.6 84 +7.7 20 64.4 286 +10.4 54 +8.6 12
56 Kansas St. 13.7%   13 - 13 7 - 8 16 - 15 10 - 10 +10.6      +4.8 71 +5.8 43 68.3 177 +8.8 67 +12.8 9
64 TCU 22.5%   15 - 11 8 - 7 17 - 14 10 - 10 +8.4      +1.0 147 +7.4 27 66.5 223 +11.4 52 +14.0 6
65 Arizona St. 0.8%   12 - 14 3 - 12 13 - 18 4 - 16 +8.3      +3.2 89 +5.1 56 71.0 102 +9.0 64 +3.5 15
68 Utah 7.7%   15 - 11 7 - 8 17 - 14 9 - 11 +8.3      +4.0 78 +4.3 68 71.4 90 +9.8 58 +11.6 11
81 Central Florida 0.6%   13 - 13 4 - 11 15 - 16 6 - 14 +7.0      +5.3 59 +1.7 124 77.2 16 +8.6 70 +7.1 14
91 Colorado 0.0%   10 - 16 1 - 14 11 - 20 2 - 18 +5.6      +1.1 143 +4.5 65 68.0 187 +4.2 104 -3.2 16
92 Oklahoma St. 0.0%   13 - 13 5 - 10 14 - 17 6 - 14 +5.6      +2.0 113 +3.6 77 75.2 33 +7.0 80 +7.9 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Houston 1.0 96.8 2.6 0.5 0.1
Arizona 2.2 10.2 68.9 15.0 5.6 0.2 0.0
Iowa St. 3.1 3.0 25.0 32.8 35.2 3.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Texas Tech 2.9 3.4 29.2 44.0 22.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kansas 6.4 0.0 0.4 3.3 26.6 26.3 23.8 11.4 5.6 2.2 0.4 0.1
Baylor 6.1 0.4 4.7 36.7 26.7 15.5 9.3 4.0 2.1 0.4 0.1
BYU 5.4 0.6 2.8 11.7 48.3 20.3 9.3 4.4 1.7 0.8 0.2
West Virginia 8.5 0.0 0.4 5.2 8.3 14.3 20.1 19.9 16.6 11.8 3.0 0.3 0.0
Cincinnati 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 6.3 10.7 21.6 38.7 15.1 4.0 0.3
Kansas St. 8.3 0.4 5.8 10.4 16.2 20.4 20.3 16.1 7.7 2.6 0.3 0.0
TCU 7.7 0.1 0.8 11.1 14.9 18.3 21.3 16.8 11.5 4.3 0.8
Arizona St. 14.6 0.1 0.4 1.6 7.3 21.3 66.6 2.7
Utah 9.7 0.0 1.5 3.3 7.0 11.8 16.6 21.2 28.1 9.2 1.4 0.0
Central Florida 12.9 0.1 0.5 1.2 3.2 7.6 18.1 38.0 26.3 5.0 0.1
Colorado 15.9 0.1 1.0 11.2 87.8
Oklahoma St. 13.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 5.0 19.7 34.1 35.3 4.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Houston 18 - 2 0.2 2.1 11.0 28.6 37.5 20.6
Arizona 15 - 5 0.1 2.4 14.4 35.5 35.4 12.3
Iowa St. 14 - 6 0.6 5.6 20.2 35.7 30.4 7.5
Texas Tech 14 - 6 0.1 2.8 14.2 33.6 35.7 13.7
Kansas 11 - 9 0.7 7.4 26.2 37.2 24.1 4.5
Baylor 11 - 9 0.5 5.5 19.5 34.8 30.9 8.9
BYU 12 - 8 1.5 10.7 30.6 37.0 17.2 3.0
West Virginia 10 - 10 2.0 13.3 33.8 34.4 14.3 2.2
Cincinnati 8 - 12 2.6 14.2 32.2 33.2 16.2 1.7
Kansas St. 10 - 10 2.1 12.6 30.1 31.9 19.2 4.1
TCU 10 - 10 6.7 24.9 35.5 23.2 8.5 1.3
Arizona St. 4 - 16 18.7 37.4 29.3 11.7 2.6 0.3
Utah 9 - 11 9.8 30.6 35.2 19.5 4.6 0.4
Central Florida 6 - 14 4.9 20.7 33.5 27.5 11.6 1.8
Colorado 2 - 18 21.2 40.5 27.0 9.6 1.7 0.1
Oklahoma St. 6 - 14 27.3 40.5 24.1 7.0 1.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 96.8% 86.4 8.3 1.9 0.3
Arizona 10.2% 2.1 6.3 1.6 0.3
Iowa St. 3.0% 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.3
Texas Tech 3.4% 0.2 1.5 1.4 0.3
Kansas
Baylor
BYU
West Virginia
Cincinnati
Kansas St.
TCU
Arizona St.
Utah
Central Florida
Colorado
Oklahoma St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 100.0% 38.1% 62.0% 1   67.9 29.1 2.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Arizona 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 2   10.8 27.1 31.0 19.8 8.0 2.6 0.5 0.1 100.0%
Iowa St. 100.0% 15.6% 84.3% 5   2.2 10.0 19.9 24.1 20.5 12.5 7.5 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Texas Tech 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 3   6.6 18.7 28.2 24.7 14.1 5.8 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Kansas 98.3% 5.1% 93.2% 6   0.2 1.0 4.3 9.0 16.0 20.4 19.5 13.7 8.4 4.1 1.7 0.0 1.7 98.2%
Baylor 93.1% 3.6% 89.5% 8   0.0 0.4 1.5 3.8 8.2 13.6 17.9 17.2 14.0 9.8 6.2 0.5 6.9 92.9%
BYU 88.7% 3.3% 85.4% 9   0.1 0.6 1.5 3.4 8.5 12.6 19.6 21.6 15.2 5.5 0.1 11.3 88.3%
West Virginia 79.4% 0.7% 78.7% 9   0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 7.1 15.1 19.8 18.5 15.0 1.0 20.6 79.3%
Cincinnati 20.3% 0.3% 20.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 4.1 12.2 1.9 79.7 20.0%
Kansas St. 13.7% 0.4% 13.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.7 7.9 1.2 0.0 86.3 13.3%
TCU 22.5% 0.1% 22.4% 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.1 5.8 10.8 1.5 77.5 22.4%
Arizona St. 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 99.2 0.8%
Utah 7.7% 0.1% 7.6% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 4.7 0.7 92.3 7.6%
Central Florida 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 99.4 0.6%
Colorado 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Houston 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.5% 78.4% 55.8% 36.6% 22.0% 12.8%
Arizona 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.2% 62.8% 32.4% 15.5% 7.1% 3.2%
Iowa St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 88.5% 54.3% 25.8% 13.1% 6.1% 2.6%
Texas Tech 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 92.3% 58.4% 28.1% 13.8% 6.6% 3.0%
Kansas 98.3% 1.3% 97.7% 69.7% 30.3% 12.4% 4.8% 1.8% 0.6%
Baylor 93.1% 5.8% 91.0% 57.3% 20.4% 8.4% 3.2% 1.0% 0.3%
BYU 88.7% 4.4% 86.9% 50.1% 15.7% 6.2% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%
West Virginia 79.4% 14.0% 72.8% 31.7% 6.9% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Cincinnati 20.3% 13.5% 14.1% 5.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Kansas St. 13.7% 8.4% 9.6% 3.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
TCU 22.5% 11.4% 15.5% 4.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona St. 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah 7.7% 5.0% 4.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.3 0.0 1.1 14.9 47.8 30.5 5.4 0.3
1st Round 100.0% 7.9 0.1 2.7 24.5 51.3 19.4 1.9
2nd Round 100.0% 6.0 0.0 0.7 6.8 23.6 37.8 24.7 6.0 0.5
Sweet Sixteen 99.7% 3.3 0.3 3.8 18.7 35.1 28.8 11.2 2.0 0.2
Elite Eight 91.6% 1.7 8.4 33.9 38.1 16.2 3.1 0.3 0.0
Final Four 68.9% 0.9 31.2 49.4 17.7 1.8 0.0
Final Game 42.1% 0.5 57.9 38.6 3.5
Champion 22.7% 0.2 77.3 22.7