Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Houston 100.0%   1   14 - 3 6 - 0 24 - 7 16 - 4 +21.6      +9.6 15 +12.0 1 58.6 359 +16.8 20 +24.1 1
4 Iowa St. 100.0%   2   15 - 2 5 - 1 26 - 5 16 - 4 +20.5      +9.7 14 +10.8 4 70.7 121 +22.3 4 +22.7 2
6 Kansas 99.9%   2   13 - 4 4 - 2 23 - 8 14 - 6 +19.5      +7.9 25 +11.7 2 71.5 100 +17.9 17 +15.8 6
13 Arizona 96.0%   4   11 - 6 5 - 1 20 - 11 14 - 6 +17.0      +9.1 18 +7.9 19 75.7 30 +13.1 36 +22.2 3
17 Texas Tech 96.9%   5   13 - 4 4 - 2 22 - 9 13 - 7 +16.5      +10.0 11 +6.5 34 65.2 260 +12.8 38 +16.0 5
22 Baylor 86.7%   6   10 - 6 3 - 3 18 - 12 11 - 9 +15.2      +9.5 16 +5.8 44 64.9 269 +13.6 33 +12.0 10
32 West Virginia 93.3%   7   13 - 4 4 - 2 21 - 10 12 - 8 +12.9      +4.8 57 +8.1 17 63.8 305 +18.3 15 +20.4 4
39 Cincinnati 54.7%   10   12 - 5 2 - 4 19 - 12 9 - 11 +11.9      +2.0 123 +9.9 7 65.0 267 +11.4 48 +7.9 11
44 BYU 32.1%   11 - 6 2 - 4 18 - 13 9 - 11 +11.4      +7.1 31 +4.3 63 68.6 179 +7.7 76 +6.2 13
62 TCU 13.7%   10 - 7 3 - 3 16 - 15 9 - 11 +8.7      +2.0 125 +6.7 26 67.4 217 +9.0 63 +13.2 8
64 Arizona St. 14.7%   10 - 7 1 - 5 15 - 16 6 - 14 +8.6      +3.1 98 +5.4 50 70.6 124 +10.8 53 +1.2 15
69 Utah 10.3%   11 - 6 3 - 3 16 - 15 8 - 12 +8.1      +3.7 84 +4.4 61 73.2 67 +8.7 66 +12.9 9
71 Central Florida 18.4%   12 - 5 3 - 3 18 - 13 9 - 11 +7.8      +4.7 61 +3.1 89 73.9 59 +13.6 32 +15.4 7
89 Kansas St. 0.4%   7 - 10 1 - 5 11 - 20 5 - 15 +6.4      +3.4 91 +3.0 92 68.3 192 +1.9 134 +3.9 14
94 Colorado 0.7%   9 - 8 0 - 6 13 - 18 4 - 16 +6.0      +2.0 126 +4.1 71 69.2 165 +6.0 94 -4.9 16
101 Oklahoma St. 0.3%   10 - 7 2 - 4 13 - 18 5 - 15 +4.6      +1.1 145 +3.5 82 74.3 51 +6.3 88 +6.5 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Houston 1.9 55.3 23.2 10.5 5.8 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
Iowa St. 2.0 40.8 32.5 15.2 6.7 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas 3.4 13.7 19.3 23.0 18.6 12.4 7.7 3.1 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arizona 3.7 11.5 18.1 20.5 19.4 14.3 8.4 4.7 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas Tech 4.6 4.9 9.5 16.4 19.4 18.3 14.4 9.1 4.5 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Baylor 6.4 0.9 2.9 6.6 11.2 14.7 17.3 17.9 11.8 7.8 4.6 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
West Virginia 5.9 1.5 4.7 8.8 14.7 17.1 17.7 13.8 8.5 6.0 3.4 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1
Cincinnati 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.6 5.1 9.0 12.4 15.8 14.4 12.6 10.7 7.8 5.1 2.4 0.8 0.3
BYU 9.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 3.5 6.0 9.4 13.5 13.8 14.7 12.6 10.0 7.3 4.0 2.0 0.7
TCU 9.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.0 5.2 10.2 13.2 14.8 15.0 13.5 9.9 6.8 4.3 1.4 0.4
Arizona St. 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 2.1 4.2 6.3 8.9 11.6 14.4 16.7 14.9 11.7 7.8
Utah 10.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.7 8.4 12.6 13.4 15.2 13.3 12.3 8.6 4.8 2.5 0.7
Central Florida 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.2 5.4 10.0 14.1 15.1 14.1 12.7 10.5 6.9 4.0 1.9 0.5
Kansas St. 13.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.1 5.0 7.7 11.5 15.4 19.9 20.5 14.0
Colorado 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.9 8.7 14.4 24.0 42.5
Oklahoma St. 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.0 5.2 8.1 11.3 16.1 22.5 21.6 9.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Houston 16 - 4 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.8 4.3 9.3 16.0 20.5 20.9 16.1 8.3 2.4
Iowa St. 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 5.3 11.8 19.2 25.1 21.4 11.3 2.9
Kansas 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 5.1 11.1 16.5 21.3 20.2 14.4 7.1 1.4
Arizona 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.1 6.7 12.5 18.0 20.1 18.4 12.5 5.4 1.8 0.3
Texas Tech 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 6.8 12.0 17.4 20.8 18.0 12.7 6.3 1.6 0.4
Baylor 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 5.6 10.3 15.6 19.0 18.8 14.8 8.3 3.6 1.1 0.1
West Virginia 12 - 8 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.8 7.9 12.4 16.5 19.1 16.0 11.7 7.3 2.6 0.7 0.0
Cincinnati 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.6 6.4 12.0 16.5 18.7 17.4 13.1 7.7 3.5 1.1 0.2
BYU 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 2.0 4.9 9.1 15.7 18.1 17.9 13.9 9.7 5.0 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
TCU 9 - 11 0.1 1.2 4.5 10.0 15.3 19.4 18.4 15.2 8.9 4.5 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
Arizona St. 6 - 14 0.4 2.1 5.9 10.8 16.5 19.8 17.1 13.3 7.9 4.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Utah 8 - 12 0.3 2.0 5.6 11.8 17.1 19.1 17.8 13.1 8.1 3.4 1.3 0.4 0.1
Central Florida 9 - 11 0.2 1.4 4.4 9.1 15.9 18.7 18.9 14.6 9.4 4.9 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Kansas St. 5 - 15 0.8 4.6 11.3 17.4 20.7 18.8 13.1 8.0 3.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Colorado 4 - 16 1.5 7.2 14.7 21.0 20.9 16.2 10.5 5.4 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St. 5 - 15 2.9 10.0 18.7 22.3 19.8 13.9 7.6 3.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 55.3% 38.9 12.8 3.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Iowa St. 40.8% 24.8 12.4 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Kansas 13.7% 5.9 5.2 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Arizona 11.5% 5.1 4.1 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Texas Tech 4.9% 1.6 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Baylor 0.9% 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
West Virginia 1.5% 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1
Cincinnati 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
BYU 0.0% 0.0 0.0
TCU 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Arizona St.
Utah
Central Florida 0.0% 0.0
Kansas St.
Colorado
Oklahoma St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 100.0% 31.8% 68.2% 1   43.0 30.8 14.0 7.7 2.6 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Iowa St. 100.0% 24.6% 75.4% 2   24.9 31.0 20.9 13.4 5.9 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Kansas 99.9% 17.5% 82.4% 2   17.8 25.9 23.3 16.4 8.9 4.6 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.9%
Arizona 96.0% 9.6% 86.4% 4   4.1 7.8 15.4 19.6 17.3 13.4 7.5 4.1 2.6 2.3 1.8 0.2 4.0 95.6%
Texas Tech 96.9% 7.4% 89.6% 5   2.1 4.7 9.7 16.5 18.1 18.2 12.6 7.7 4.0 2.0 1.2 0.1 3.1 96.7%
Baylor 86.7% 4.4% 82.2% 6   0.6 2.1 5.3 8.9 13.3 14.8 13.1 9.4 7.2 5.8 5.5 0.7 13.4 86.0%
West Virginia 93.3% 2.3% 91.0% 7   0.1 0.9 3.9 7.6 13.1 16.4 18.5 14.6 9.3 5.0 3.7 0.2 6.8 93.1%
Cincinnati 54.7% 1.2% 53.6% 10   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.8 4.2 5.9 8.6 10.4 11.1 10.9 1.0 0.0 45.3 54.2%
BYU 32.1% 0.7% 31.4% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.2 5.0 5.8 7.0 7.3 0.6 67.9 31.6%
TCU 13.7% 0.2% 13.5% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.5 3.0 4.9 0.4 86.3 13.5%
Arizona St. 14.7% 0.1% 14.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 2.2 3.4 5.4 0.5 85.3 14.6%
Utah 10.3% 0.1% 10.2% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.9 3.7 0.5 89.7 10.2%
Central Florida 18.4% 0.2% 18.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.4 5.3 6.7 0.5 81.6 18.3%
Kansas St. 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 99.6 0.4%
Colorado 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 99.4 0.7%
Oklahoma St. 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.2%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Houston 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.5% 76.4% 52.2% 31.8% 18.5% 10.3%
Iowa St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.8% 70.8% 43.4% 24.3% 13.2% 6.9%
Kansas 99.9% 0.1% 99.9% 93.9% 66.0% 38.6% 21.4% 10.9% 5.3%
Arizona 96.0% 2.1% 95.4% 78.8% 45.3% 21.0% 9.5% 4.1% 1.5%
Texas Tech 96.9% 1.3% 96.4% 75.2% 39.5% 17.7% 7.6% 2.9% 0.9%
Baylor 86.7% 6.6% 84.0% 58.9% 27.0% 11.3% 4.5% 1.7% 0.6%
West Virginia 93.3% 3.9% 91.2% 54.8% 18.9% 6.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Cincinnati 54.7% 12.3% 48.8% 25.7% 7.3% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
BYU 32.1% 7.9% 28.4% 14.5% 3.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
TCU 13.7% 5.4% 10.7% 4.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona St. 14.7% 6.1% 11.4% 4.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Utah 10.3% 4.3% 7.8% 3.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 18.4% 7.5% 13.8% 4.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Kansas St. 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.2 0.1 2.1 20.0 43.1 27.8 6.4 0.6
1st Round 100.0% 7.9 0.1 4.2 28.8 44.3 19.3 3.2 0.2
2nd Round 100.0% 6.1 0.0 0.6 5.2 21.4 36.5 27.7 7.9 0.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.8% 3.6 0.2 2.9 13.0 30.9 33.0 15.9 3.7 0.4 0.0
Elite Eight 94.2% 2.0 5.9 26.7 39.2 22.8 5.0 0.5 0.1
Final Four 74.2% 1.0 25.8 48.9 22.2 3.0 0.2
Final Game 46.9% 0.5 53.1 41.4 5.5
Champion 25.9% 0.3 74.1 25.9