Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
4 Houston 96.8%   1   2 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 7 15 - 5 +19.5      +9.1 12 +10.5 1 60.5 355 +7.2 82 0.0 1
6 Kansas 98.6%   1   5 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 7 14 - 6 +18.8      +10.0 8 +8.8 7 71.5 107 +22.1 5 0.0 1
11 Baylor 90.4%   3   3 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 10 13 - 7 +16.6      +10.6 5 +5.9 36 64.9 302 +19.5 6 0.0 1
12 Iowa St. 86.7%   3   3 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 13 - 7 +16.4      +6.2 37 +10.2 2 68.5 203 +2.1 159 0.0 1
13 Arizona 80.2%   4   2 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 8 +15.5      +9.0 13 +6.5 26 78.5 21 +2.7 147 0.0 1
14 Texas Tech 81.7%   5   4 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 12 - 8 +15.1      +8.8 14 +6.4 29 66.3 271 +4.5 115 0.0 1
18 Cincinnati 79.1%   6   4 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 8 +14.1      +7.5 24 +6.5 24 68.1 220 +8.8 62 0.0 1
34 BYU 57.9%   9   4 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 10 - 10 +11.9      +7.9 20 +4.1 69 71.4 111 +4.7 112 0.0 1
53 Arizona St. 41.6%   11   4 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 12 +9.3      +4.0 67 +5.4 44 71.5 109 +17.7 10 0.0 1
54 Utah 29.8%   3 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 14 8 - 12 +9.3      +5.0 54 +4.3 64 73.2 76 +3.0 141 0.0 1
60 TCU 29.6%   4 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 15 8 - 12 +8.8      +3.4 89 +5.4 43 73.6 73 +8.4 66 0.0 1
66 Kansas St. 21.9%   3 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 15 7 - 13 +8.3      +3.5 84 +4.9 51 68.3 212 +0.9 180 0.0 1
70 Colorado 25.5%   4 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 7 - 13 +8.0      +3.4 92 +4.6 55 68.9 192 +7.2 84 0.0 1
71 Central Florida 33.5%   4 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 7 - 13 +8.0      +3.4 88 +4.6 57 70.7 135 +18.4 9 0.0 1
76 West Virginia 19.2%   2 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 15 7 - 13 +7.5      +3.7 77 +3.8 72 70.2 151 +8.5 64 0.0 1
86 Oklahoma St. 18.1%   3 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 13 +6.6      +3.1 94 +3.5 79 74.9 55 +9.9 54 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Houston 3.2 34.0 19.0 13.4 9.6 7.2 5.2 3.7 2.6 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
Kansas 3.5 27.4 19.3 14.9 11.0 8.1 6.2 4.6 3.0 2.1 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Baylor 5.0 13.7 13.5 12.8 11.8 10.7 8.7 7.5 5.8 4.7 3.5 2.7 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.2
Iowa St. 4.8 15.8 14.7 12.9 11.8 9.9 8.4 6.5 5.4 4.2 3.3 2.3 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.3
Arizona 5.7 10.5 10.9 11.0 10.6 10.2 9.2 8.2 7.0 5.9 4.8 3.8 2.9 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.5
Texas Tech 5.7 9.6 11.1 11.5 11.4 10.7 9.6 8.0 7.2 5.8 4.4 3.5 2.7 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.4
Cincinnati 6.2 7.7 9.7 10.2 10.5 10.5 9.4 8.6 7.5 6.3 5.3 4.3 3.5 2.6 2.0 1.3 0.6
BYU 7.9 3.3 5.1 6.5 7.5 8.4 8.5 9.2 8.7 8.3 7.7 6.5 6.0 5.1 4.3 3.1 1.9
Arizona St. 10.0 0.9 1.6 2.7 3.6 4.6 5.7 7.0 7.7 8.7 9.1 9.2 9.1 8.7 8.4 7.4 5.7
Utah 10.0 0.9 1.8 2.4 3.9 4.9 5.7 7.0 8.2 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.2 8.6 7.8 7.2 5.6
TCU 10.3 0.5 1.3 2.2 3.2 4.4 5.5 6.5 7.8 8.8 9.4 9.7 9.5 9.4 8.6 7.3 5.9
Kansas St. 11.0 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.5 3.1 4.2 5.2 6.4 7.4 8.3 9.4 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.3 9.3
Colorado 11.1 0.5 1.1 1.5 2.2 3.2 4.3 5.3 6.4 7.5 8.2 8.8 9.5 10.1 10.6 10.7 10.1
Central Florida 11.0 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.3 3.4 4.2 5.6 6.5 7.7 8.5 9.5 9.6 10.1 10.3 10.2 9.0
West Virginia 11.4 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.9 2.7 3.6 4.9 5.6 7.0 7.8 8.9 9.6 10.4 10.9 12.2 11.6
Oklahoma St. 11.9 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.2 3.0 4.1 4.9 6.0 7.2 8.1 9.3 10.3 12.2 13.6 15.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Houston 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.7 5.5 8.0 10.3 12.5 14.0 13.9 11.9 8.9 4.9 1.5
Kansas 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.5 4.5 6.8 9.1 11.6 13.9 14.3 13.2 10.6 6.7 3.3 0.8
Baylor 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.5 4.1 6.1 8.2 10.4 12.1 12.9 12.3 10.6 8.6 5.5 2.9 1.1 0.3
Iowa St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.8 5.6 7.4 9.6 11.5 12.4 12.4 11.2 9.0 6.4 3.6 1.5 0.4
Arizona 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.3 4.0 5.8 7.8 9.5 11.3 12.0 11.8 10.5 8.8 6.4 4.0 2.1 0.9 0.2
Texas Tech 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 3.6 5.4 7.6 9.9 11.3 12.3 12.3 11.2 9.2 6.4 3.8 1.9 0.7 0.1
Cincinnati 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.0 4.7 6.6 8.7 10.0 11.8 12.2 11.4 10.0 7.8 5.5 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.1
BYU 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.0 6.0 8.1 9.9 11.3 11.6 11.3 10.4 8.3 6.4 4.4 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Arizona St. 8 - 12 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.6 6.0 8.3 10.4 11.9 12.4 11.6 10.1 8.1 5.9 4.2 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Utah 8 - 12 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.4 5.7 8.0 10.3 12.0 12.4 11.4 10.6 8.5 6.1 4.2 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
TCU 8 - 12 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.6 6.1 8.4 11.1 12.7 13.2 11.9 9.9 8.0 5.6 3.6 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Kansas St. 7 - 13 0.3 1.3 3.1 5.3 8.1 10.7 12.4 12.5 12.0 10.1 8.4 6.0 4.2 2.6 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Colorado 7 - 13 0.4 1.4 3.2 5.7 8.5 10.9 12.1 12.4 11.6 9.9 8.3 6.0 4.2 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Central Florida 7 - 13 0.2 1.1 2.7 5.4 8.0 10.6 12.1 12.6 12.3 10.5 8.3 6.4 4.3 2.8 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
West Virginia 7 - 13 0.4 1.8 4.0 6.7 9.5 11.2 12.5 12.5 11.3 9.5 7.2 5.4 3.5 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St. 7 - 13 0.6 2.6 5.2 8.5 10.6 12.4 12.7 11.9 10.4 8.3 6.3 4.4 2.8 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 34.0% 23.6 8.2 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Kansas 27.4% 18.0 7.1 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Baylor 13.7% 8.0 4.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Iowa St. 15.8% 9.7 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Arizona 10.5% 6.1 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas Tech 9.6% 5.2 3.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Cincinnati 7.7% 4.1 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
BYU 3.3% 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Utah 0.9% 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
TCU 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas St. 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Colorado 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Florida 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
West Virginia 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St. 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 96.8% 24.3% 72.5% 1   31.1 21.4 14.0 10.3 6.8 4.7 3.0 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.2 3.2 95.8%
Kansas 98.6% 20.4% 78.2% 1   34.0 25.6 15.8 9.5 5.6 3.3 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 98.2%
Baylor 90.4% 11.5% 78.9% 3   15.0 16.6 15.5 12.7 9.3 6.3 3.6 2.6 2.6 2.3 3.2 0.8 0.0 9.6 89.2%
Iowa St. 86.7% 11.9% 74.8% 3   10.3 11.0 11.6 10.8 9.9 8.8 7.9 6.1 4.0 3.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 13.3 84.9%
Arizona 80.2% 9.1% 71.1% 4   8.0 9.3 10.7 10.6 9.7 8.1 7.0 5.0 4.0 3.4 3.7 0.7 0.0 19.8 78.2%
Texas Tech 81.7% 8.1% 73.6% 5   5.6 7.1 9.1 10.0 9.9 9.1 8.7 7.9 5.8 4.6 3.5 0.4 18.3 80.0%
Cincinnati 79.1% 6.0% 73.1% 6   4.3 6.4 8.3 8.9 9.4 9.4 8.9 7.8 6.3 5.0 4.1 0.5 0.0 20.9 77.8%
BYU 57.9% 3.0% 54.9% 9   1.2 2.1 3.7 4.6 5.9 6.6 7.7 8.0 6.7 5.8 4.9 0.6 42.1 56.6%
Arizona St. 41.6% 1.0% 40.6% 11   0.4 0.9 2.1 2.9 4.4 5.1 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.5 6.5 1.3 0.0 0.0 58.4 41.0%
Utah 29.8% 1.0% 28.7% 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.5 3.7 4.9 4.8 5.0 4.2 0.4 0.0 70.2 29.0%
TCU 29.6% 0.8% 28.9% 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.2 2.9 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.1 5.2 0.8 0.0 70.4 29.1%
Kansas St. 21.9% 0.7% 21.2% 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.9 3.3 3.0 2.9 3.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 78.1 21.3%
Colorado 25.5% 0.6% 24.9% 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.3 3.1 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.2 0.6 0.0 74.5 25.1%
Central Florida 33.5% 0.6% 33.0% 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.6 3.7 3.7 4.3 4.8 4.4 5.9 1.0 0.0 66.5 33.2%
West Virginia 19.2% 0.6% 18.7% 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.7 3.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 80.8 18.8%
Oklahoma St. 18.1% 0.4% 17.8% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.6 3.8 0.7 0.0 81.9 17.8%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Houston 96.8% 1.1% 96.4% 87.8% 62.9% 40.5% 24.2% 14.1% 7.9%
Kansas 98.6% 0.8% 98.2% 90.5% 63.6% 38.7% 21.8% 11.7% 6.0%
Baylor 90.4% 3.8% 88.8% 74.8% 46.8% 25.2% 13.1% 6.6% 3.3%
Iowa St. 86.7% 2.6% 85.6% 68.7% 41.0% 22.3% 11.8% 5.9% 3.0%
Arizona 80.2% 4.0% 78.4% 61.7% 35.3% 18.3% 9.1% 4.5% 2.1%
Texas Tech 81.7% 3.3% 80.2% 60.3% 32.4% 16.1% 7.8% 3.6% 1.7%
Cincinnati 79.1% 4.0% 77.2% 55.3% 27.8% 12.9% 5.9% 2.5% 1.1%
BYU 57.9% 4.7% 55.6% 35.3% 15.0% 6.6% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Arizona St. 41.6% 7.2% 37.9% 20.8% 7.5% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Utah 29.8% 4.0% 27.8% 15.4% 5.1% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
TCU 29.6% 5.4% 26.8% 14.3% 4.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Kansas St. 21.9% 3.6% 20.0% 10.8% 3.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Colorado 25.5% 4.2% 23.3% 11.9% 3.9% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Central Florida 33.5% 6.3% 30.1% 15.2% 4.9% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
West Virginia 19.2% 4.0% 17.2% 9.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 18.1% 4.0% 15.9% 7.9% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.9 0.0 0.1 1.5 9.1 26.0 33.1 21.6 7.4 1.1 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 8.6 0.0 0.3 2.7 13.7 30.6 31.5 16.2 4.5 0.5 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 6.4 0.1 0.9 5.2 17.6 29.4 28.0 14.5 3.8 0.6 0.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.7% 3.6 0.3 3.2 14.3 29.2 30.6 17.0 4.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 93.3% 1.9 6.7 27.9 37.6 21.6 5.4 0.7 0.0
Final Four 72.4% 1.0 27.6 47.6 21.4 3.2 0.1
Final Game 46.2% 0.5 53.8 40.9 5.3
Champion 25.9% 0.3 74.1 25.9