Utah
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.3#68
Expected Predictive Rating+9.8#58
Pace71.4#90
Improvement-2.6#297

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#78
First Shot+1.5#124
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#37
Layup/Dunks+3.8#55
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#125
Freethrows-1.2#265
Improvement-1.7#265

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#68
First Shot+3.3#74
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#103
Layups/Dunks+3.2#69
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#109
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#208
Freethrows-0.5#222
Improvement-1.0#241
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.7% 12.5% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.6% 12.3% 4.1%
Average Seed 10.7 10.6 10.8
.500 or above 91.1% 100.0% 84.3%
.500 or above in Conference 24.5% 45.3% 8.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.0% 7.5% 3.0%
First Round4.8% 8.0% 2.4%
Second Round1.5% 2.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Florida (Away) - 43.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 33 - 11
Quad 23 - 46 - 15
Quad 33 - 09 - 15
Quad 48 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 307   Alcorn St. W 100-59 95%     1 - 0 +30.0 +28.6 +3.8
  Nov 07, 2024 344   Central Arkansas W 98-63 97%     2 - 0 +20.2 +8.9 +8.0
  Nov 12, 2024 231   Queens W 96-65 91%     3 - 0 +24.6 +10.5 +11.6
  Nov 17, 2024 28   Mississippi St. L 73-78 27%     3 - 1 +9.7 +5.0 +4.9
  Nov 22, 2024 290   Utah Tech W 84-53 94%     4 - 1 +21.4 -2.2 +20.9
  Nov 26, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 94-48 99.8%    5 - 1 +15.1 +13.6 +4.6
  Nov 30, 2024 265   Eastern Washington W 88-80 93%     6 - 1 +0.0 +12.1 -12.0
  Dec 07, 2024 30   St. Mary's L 63-72 35%     6 - 2 +3.1 -1.4 +4.4
  Dec 14, 2024 177   Radford W 81-63 86%     7 - 2 +14.5 +6.0 +8.8
  Dec 17, 2024 321   Florida A&M W 89-59 96%     8 - 2 +18.0 +9.3 +8.5
  Dec 21, 2024 61   Iowa L 88-95 46%     8 - 3 +2.2 +6.3 -3.4
  Dec 31, 2024 24   @ Baylor L 56-81 18%     8 - 4 0 - 1 -7.1 -15.3 +10.5
  Jan 04, 2025 10   Texas Tech L 65-93 23%     8 - 5 0 - 2 -12.1 +8.4 -24.9
  Jan 07, 2025 9   @ Iowa St. L 59-82 12%     8 - 6 0 - 3 -1.8 -2.0 +0.0
  Jan 11, 2025 92   Oklahoma St. W 83-62 69%     9 - 6 1 - 3 +24.0 +12.6 +11.4
  Jan 15, 2025 64   @ TCU W 73-65 40%     10 - 6 2 - 3 +18.9 +12.3 +7.0
  Jan 18, 2025 26   BYU W 73-72 OT 35%     11 - 6 3 - 3 +13.3 -0.6 +13.8
  Jan 22, 2025 3   @ Houston L 36-70 7%     11 - 7 3 - 4 -9.0 -18.2 +3.0
  Jan 25, 2025 24   Baylor L 61-76 33%     11 - 8 3 - 5 -2.2 +0.0 -4.1
  Jan 28, 2025 46   Cincinnati W 69-66 48%     12 - 8 4 - 5 +11.7 +5.5 +6.4
  Feb 01, 2025 92   @ Oklahoma St. L 72-81 51%     12 - 9 4 - 6 -0.9 +7.7 -9.0
  Feb 05, 2025 91   Colorado W 72-59 69%     13 - 9 5 - 6 +16.0 +5.7 +10.9
  Feb 08, 2025 41   @ West Virginia L 61-72 27%     13 - 10 5 - 7 +3.6 +4.2 -1.7
  Feb 11, 2025 46   @ Cincinnati L 75-85 30%     13 - 11 5 - 8 +3.8 +14.3 -10.9
  Feb 15, 2025 19   Kansas W 74-67 30%     14 - 11 6 - 8 +20.6 +11.4 +9.3
  Feb 17, 2025 56   Kansas St. W 74-69 51%     15 - 11 7 - 8 +13.0 +6.8 +6.3
  Feb 23, 2025 81   @ Central Florida L 80-81 43%    
  Feb 26, 2025 8   @ Arizona L 70-83 10%    
  Mar 01, 2025 65   Arizona St. W 75-73 61%    
  Mar 04, 2025 41   West Virginia L 67-68 47%    
  Mar 08, 2025 26   @ BYU L 72-81 19%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 0.2 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 2.0 0.1 3.3 6th
7th 0.3 5.5 1.2 7.0 7th
8th 3.5 8.0 0.3 11.8 8th
9th 0.6 12.0 4.0 0.0 16.6 9th
10th 0.1 6.2 14.1 0.7 0.0 21.2 10th
11th 3.3 19.7 5.1 0.0 28.1 11th
12th 5.1 4.0 0.1 9.2 12th
13th 1.4 0.1 1.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 9.8 30.6 35.2 19.5 4.6 0.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.4% 83.8% 83.8% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 83.8%
11-9 4.6% 49.7% 0.2% 49.5% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 2.3 49.6%
10-10 19.5% 18.7% 0.3% 18.4% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 0.3 15.8 18.5%
9-11 35.2% 3.9% 0.2% 3.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.3 33.8 3.8%
8-12 30.6% 0.4% 0.4% 11.2 0.1 0.0 30.5 0.4%
7-13 9.8% 9.8
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.7% 0.1% 7.6% 10.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 4.7 0.7 92.3 7.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.3%