Florida A&M
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.4#321
Expected Predictive Rating-5.2#257
Pace68.9#161
Improvement+5.6#14

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#297
First Shot-2.5#244
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#297
Layup/Dunks-3.2#295
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#282
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#92
Freethrows-0.2#189
Improvement+4.2#22

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#319
First Shot-6.7#350
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#55
Layups/Dunks-2.1#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#134
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#316
Freethrows-1.7#295
Improvement+1.4#111
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.4% 7.4% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 21.8% 40.2% 11.3%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 1.2% 2.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.8% 6.2% 5.6%
First Round2.9% 3.7% 2.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Away) - 36.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 7
Quad 20 - 00 - 7
Quad 30 - 10 - 8
Quad 413 - 713 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 64   @ TCU L 59-105 4%     0 - 1 -35.1 -4.5 -31.0
  Nov 07, 2024 37   @ SMU L 73-102 2%     0 - 2 -13.9 -1.7 -9.2
  Nov 11, 2024 13   @ Maryland L 53-84 1%     0 - 3 -10.5 -11.0 +1.1
  Nov 19, 2024 4   @ Florida L 60-84 0.5%    0 - 4 +0.8 -1.0 +1.4
  Nov 29, 2024 23   @ Clemson L 58-86 1%     0 - 5 -9.9 -2.8 -8.6
  Dec 03, 2024 270   Presbyterian W 66-63 45%     1 - 5 -5.3 -13.6 +8.2
  Dec 17, 2024 68   @ Utah L 59-89 4%     1 - 6 -19.2 -8.7 -10.3
  Dec 20, 2024 26   @ BYU L 57-103 1%     1 - 7 -28.6 -14.2 -10.8
  Dec 29, 2024 273   @ Tarleton St. L 60-70 29%     1 - 8 -13.8 -10.7 -3.0
  Jan 04, 2025 293   Bethune-Cookman L 55-62 52%     1 - 9 0 - 1 -16.9 -14.9 -2.7
  Jan 11, 2025 224   @ Southern L 57-91 21%     1 - 10 0 - 2 -34.8 -9.8 -26.7
  Jan 13, 2025 327   @ Grambling St. L 72-79 43%     1 - 11 0 - 3 -14.6 +5.2 -20.5
  Jan 18, 2025 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 86-76 88%     2 - 11 1 - 3 -12.3 -2.7 -10.1
  Jan 20, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 83-53 97%     3 - 11 2 - 3 -0.9 -1.1 +1.2
  Jan 25, 2025 307   @ Alcorn St. W 65-64 37%     4 - 11 3 - 3 -4.9 -1.8 -3.0
  Jan 27, 2025 271   @ Jackson St. W 72-62 27%     5 - 11 4 - 3 +6.8 -3.2 +9.7
  Feb 01, 2025 359   Alabama A&M W 95-79 77%     6 - 11 5 - 3 -1.2 +17.1 -18.0
  Feb 03, 2025 311   Alabama St. L 66-67 57%     6 - 12 5 - 4 -12.3 -4.0 -8.4
  Feb 08, 2025 296   @ Texas Southern W 66-64 33%     7 - 12 6 - 4 -3.0 -3.2 +0.3
  Feb 10, 2025 356   @ Prairie View W 78-67 57%     8 - 12 7 - 4 -0.2 -2.7 +2.1
  Feb 15, 2025 271   Jackson St. W 76-71 46%     9 - 12 8 - 4 -3.3 +3.5 -6.6
  Feb 17, 2025 307   Alcorn St. W 85-76 56%     10 - 12 9 - 4 -2.0 +14.2 -15.5
  Feb 22, 2025 311   @ Alabama St. L 72-75 36%    
  Feb 24, 2025 359   @ Alabama A&M W 77-74 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 327   Grambling St. W 69-66 64%    
  Mar 03, 2025 224   Southern L 69-73 39%    
  Mar 08, 2025 293   @ Bethune-Cookman L 70-75 32%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 0.8 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 3.7 7.9 1.6 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 4.4 19.9 4.1 28.5 3rd
4th 0.6 13.4 4.3 18.3 4th
5th 0.0 3.9 11.6 0.3 15.8 5th
6th 0.4 9.0 2.6 12.0 6th
7th 3.4 5.9 0.2 9.5 7th
8th 1.3 0.1 1.4 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 5.2 19.5 32.4 28.2 12.5 2.4 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 31.9% 0.8    0.1 0.5 0.1
13-5 3.7% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.4% 14.0% 14.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.0
13-5 12.5% 9.4% 9.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2 11.3
12-6 28.2% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 2.1 26.1
11-7 32.4% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 1.8 30.6
10-8 19.5% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.8 18.6
9-9 5.2% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.2 5.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.4 93.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 15.9 9.1 90.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%
Lose Out 3.9%