Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-17.3#362
Expected Predictive Rating-14.9#349
Pace78.9#12
Improvement+1.4#94

Offense
Total Offense-5.6#329
First Shot-2.7#253
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#329
Layup/Dunks+4.8#33
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#296
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#264
Freethrows-2.6#320
Improvement+0.4#145

Defense
Total Defense-11.6#364
First Shot-7.7#359
After Offensive Rebounds-3.9#360
Layups/Dunks-4.7#334
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#9
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#344
Freethrows-0.8#242
Improvement+1.0#108
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 9.4% 18.1% 5.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 24.9% 11.9% 30.8%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Away) - 31.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 46 - 166 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 26   @ Cincinnati L 54-109 0.5%    0 - 1 -38.3 -12.1 -22.6
  Nov 09, 2024 252   @ Tulsa L 80-103 8%     0 - 2 -25.0 +0.4 -23.6
  Nov 12, 2024 180   @ South Florida L 69-85 5%     0 - 3 -14.0 -3.6 -10.3
  Nov 16, 2024 304   @ Incarnate Word L 64-92 12%     0 - 4 -32.7 -11.3 -22.6
  Nov 18, 2024 24   @ Texas Tech L 64-98 0.5%    0 - 5 -17.1 -3.8 -12.2
  Nov 24, 2024 55   @ Missouri L 63-112 1%     0 - 6 -36.2 -12.4 -18.8
  Nov 27, 2024 277   @ Pacific L 71-83 10%     0 - 7 -15.3 -1.2 -14.2
  Dec 01, 2024 68   @ Kansas St. L 73-120 1%     0 - 8 -35.7 -3.1 -26.7
  Dec 07, 2024 339   Central Arkansas W 84-78 39%     1 - 8 -8.3 +4.8 -13.1
  Dec 11, 2024 329   @ Louisiana Monroe L 73-89 17%     1 - 9 -22.9 -8.7 -12.7
  Dec 15, 2024 31   @ Texas L 57-121 1%     1 - 10 -48.5 -12.2 -31.0
  Jan 04, 2025 361   @ Alabama A&M L 81-86 32%    
  Jan 06, 2025 297   @ Alabama St. L 76-89 11%    
  Jan 11, 2025 306   Texas Southern L 79-85 28%    
  Jan 13, 2025 337   Prairie View L 89-92 39%    
  Jan 18, 2025 357   @ Florida A&M L 75-82 27%    
  Jan 20, 2025 262   @ Bethune-Cookman L 72-87 8%    
  Jan 25, 2025 232   Southern L 74-85 17%    
  Jan 27, 2025 308   Grambling St. L 74-80 28%    
  Feb 01, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 342   @ Alcorn St. L 75-84 21%    
  Feb 10, 2025 303   @ Jackson St. L 72-85 12%    
  Feb 15, 2025 297   Alabama St. L 79-86 26%    
  Feb 17, 2025 361   Alabama A&M W 84-83 53%    
  Feb 22, 2025 337   @ Prairie View L 86-95 21%    
  Feb 24, 2025 306   @ Texas Southern L 76-88 13%    
  Mar 01, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 75-74 53%    
  Mar 06, 2025 303   Jackson St. L 75-82 27%    
  Mar 08, 2025 342   Alcorn St. L 78-81 40%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.6 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.6 2.8 0.4 9.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.2 4.5 0.8 0.0 14.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 4.4 8.4 5.2 1.1 0.0 20.1 10th
11th 0.2 2.4 7.2 9.0 5.3 1.1 0.0 25.1 11th
12th 0.6 2.9 5.2 4.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 15.2 12th
Total 0.6 3.1 7.6 12.6 15.5 17.0 14.5 11.7 8.0 4.9 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 30.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 18.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.2% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.5% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 1.3% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
10-8 2.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.5
9-9 4.9% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 4.8
8-10 8.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.0
7-11 11.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.7
6-12 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.5
5-13 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.0
4-14 15.5% 15.5
3-15 12.6% 12.6
2-16 7.6% 7.6
1-17 3.1% 3.1
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%