Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#275
Expected Predictive Rating-18.2#359
Pace70.7#133
Improvement+0.0#168

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#317
First Shot-1.8#231
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#332
Layup/Dunks+1.8#115
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#279
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#222
Freethrows-0.5#205
Improvement+0.0#175

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#192
First Shot+3.2#92
After Offensive Rebounds-3.9#339
Layups/Dunks+0.0#173
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#80
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#182
Freethrows+1.5#95
Improvement+0.0#193
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.0% 27.5% 14.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 31.8% 66.5% 31.2%
.500 or above in Conference 82.8% 93.3% 82.6%
Conference Champion 18.1% 32.2% 17.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.0% 0.8%
First Four10.9% 12.0% 10.8%
First Round10.1% 21.8% 9.9%
Second Round0.2% 1.1% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M (Away) - 1.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 31 - 9
Quad 412 - 813 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 249   @ South Dakota L 79-93 33%     0 - 1 -15.3 -6.2 -7.5
  Nov 07, 2024 41   @ Iowa L 74-89 4%     0 - 2 -0.7 +3.3 -3.4
  Nov 13, 2024 352   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 68-70 66%     0 - 3 -12.0 -8.8 -3.3
  Nov 20, 2024 23   @ Texas A&M L 58-81 2%    
  Nov 30, 2024 87   @ Louisiana Tech L 61-76 8%    
  Dec 07, 2024 147   @ Tulsa L 70-80 19%    
  Dec 17, 2024 47   @ Mississippi L 61-80 4%    
  Dec 20, 2024 152   @ Loyola Marymount L 63-72 20%    
  Dec 22, 2024 78   @ USC L 65-81 8%    
  Dec 30, 2024 65   @ Nebraska L 62-79 6%    
  Jan 04, 2025 266   @ Texas Southern L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 06, 2025 348   @ Prairie View W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 11, 2025 356   Florida A&M W 75-64 84%    
  Jan 13, 2025 286   Bethune-Cookman W 72-68 62%    
  Jan 18, 2025 235   Grambling St. W 67-66 53%    
  Jan 25, 2025 362   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 80-73 74%    
  Jan 27, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 72-60 85%    
  Feb 01, 2025 350   Alcorn St. W 73-63 81%    
  Feb 03, 2025 320   Jackson St. W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 08, 2025 346   @ Alabama A&M W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 10, 2025 282   @ Alabama St. L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 348   Prairie View W 79-69 80%    
  Feb 17, 2025 266   Texas Southern W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 235   @ Grambling St. L 64-69 32%    
  Mar 01, 2025 286   @ Bethune-Cookman L 69-71 41%    
  Mar 03, 2025 356   @ Florida A&M W 72-67 67%    
  Mar 06, 2025 282   Alabama St. W 70-67 61%    
  Mar 08, 2025 346   Alabama A&M W 76-66 79%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.3 5.5 4.1 1.9 0.5 18.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.0 4.7 1.7 0.2 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.3 4.2 0.8 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.6 3.7 0.6 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 5.0 3.3 0.5 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.0 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.0 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.7 6.8 9.1 11.6 12.5 13.6 12.3 9.8 7.2 4.3 1.9 0.5 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 1.9    1.9 0.0
16-2 95.7% 4.1    3.5 0.6 0.0
15-3 75.7% 5.5    3.5 1.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 43.8% 4.3    1.6 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.2% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.1% 18.1 11.2 5.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 55.9% 55.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
17-1 1.9% 49.1% 49.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.0
16-2 4.3% 38.6% 38.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6
15-3 7.2% 31.9% 31.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.9 4.9
14-4 9.8% 26.1% 26.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.4 7.3
13-5 12.3% 19.7% 19.7% 16.0 0.0 2.4 9.9
12-6 13.6% 14.8% 14.8% 16.0 0.0 2.0 11.6
11-7 12.5% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 1.3 11.2
10-8 11.6% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.8 10.8
9-9 9.1% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.5 8.6
8-10 6.8% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.2 6.6
7-11 4.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.7
6-12 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.9
5-13 1.6% 1.6
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 13.0 85.0 0.0%