Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#232
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#225
Pace70.1#148
Improvement+1.3#102

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#289
First Shot-3.0#267
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#235
Layup/Dunks+2.7#91
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#270
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#285
Freethrows-0.8#234
Improvement+1.6#60

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#161
First Shot+3.3#78
After Offensive Rebounds-3.2#349
Layups/Dunks+2.7#80
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#20
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#294
Freethrows+1.1#110
Improvement-0.4#209
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.7% 37.4% 27.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.0 15.6
.500 or above 72.9% 90.2% 71.1%
.500 or above in Conference 95.8% 97.9% 95.5%
Conference Champion 41.7% 53.9% 40.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.6% 6.9% 12.0%
First Round23.3% 34.6% 22.1%
Second Round0.6% 1.1% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: USC (Away) - 9.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 11 - 5
Quad 30 - 22 - 7
Quad 415 - 717 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 235   @ South Dakota L 79-93 40%     0 - 1 -15.1 -8.6 -4.9
  Nov 07, 2024 42   @ Iowa L 74-89 6%     0 - 2 -1.2 +2.4 -3.0
  Nov 13, 2024 353   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 68-70 72%     0 - 3 -11.6 -8.6 -3.1
  Nov 20, 2024 25   @ Texas A&M L 54-71 4%     0 - 4 -0.1 -5.3 +4.0
  Nov 30, 2024 101   @ Louisiana Tech W 73-70 14%     1 - 4 +11.1 +4.1 +7.0
  Dec 07, 2024 252   @ Tulsa W 70-66 43%     2 - 4 +2.0 +1.4 +0.9
  Dec 17, 2024 27   @ Mississippi L 61-74 4%     2 - 5 +3.3 -7.2 +11.0
  Dec 20, 2024 165   @ Loyola Marymount L 73-89 27%     2 - 6 -13.5 +4.0 -17.7
  Dec 22, 2024 76   @ USC L 64-78 9%    
  Dec 30, 2024 53   @ Nebraska L 63-80 6%    
  Jan 04, 2025 306   @ Texas Southern W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 06, 2025 337   @ Prairie View W 82-78 66%    
  Jan 11, 2025 357   Florida A&M W 76-63 88%    
  Jan 13, 2025 262   Bethune-Cookman W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 18, 2025 308   Grambling St. W 72-65 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 362   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-74 83%    
  Jan 27, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 72-58 91%    
  Feb 01, 2025 342   Alcorn St. W 75-64 83%    
  Feb 03, 2025 303   Jackson St. W 73-66 74%    
  Feb 08, 2025 361   @ Alabama A&M W 77-69 78%    
  Feb 10, 2025 297   @ Alabama St. W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 15, 2025 337   Prairie View W 85-75 83%    
  Feb 17, 2025 306   Texas Southern W 75-68 74%    
  Feb 22, 2025 308   @ Grambling St. W 69-68 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 262   @ Bethune-Cookman L 70-71 46%    
  Mar 03, 2025 357   @ Florida A&M W 73-66 73%    
  Mar 06, 2025 297   Alabama St. W 77-70 72%    
  Mar 08, 2025 361   Alabama A&M W 80-66 90%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.9 9.6 11.9 9.4 4.8 1.4 41.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.8 8.1 5.8 1.9 0.2 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.7 5.8 3.5 0.5 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.2 7.0 10.1 13.1 15.9 15.9 13.8 9.7 4.8 1.4 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
17-1 100.0% 4.8    4.7 0.1
16-2 97.7% 9.4    8.7 0.8 0.0
15-3 86.4% 11.9    9.0 2.8 0.2
14-4 60.3% 9.6    4.6 4.0 1.0 0.0
13-5 24.6% 3.9    0.9 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.8% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 41.7% 41.7 29.2 9.5 2.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.4% 59.0% 59.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6
17-1 4.8% 51.2% 51.2% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.1 2.3
16-2 9.7% 45.9% 45.9% 15.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 1.1 5.2
15-3 13.8% 38.7% 38.7% 15.5 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.9 8.5
14-4 15.9% 33.6% 33.6% 15.8 0.1 1.0 4.2 10.6
13-5 15.9% 26.4% 26.4% 15.9 0.0 0.3 3.9 11.7
12-6 13.1% 21.2% 21.2% 16.0 0.1 2.7 10.3
11-7 10.1% 17.6% 17.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8 8.3
10-8 7.0% 13.8% 13.8% 16.0 1.0 6.0
9-9 4.2% 10.8% 10.8% 16.0 0.5 3.7
8-10 2.4% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.1 2.2
7-11 1.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.0
6-12 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.7% 28.7% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 6.9 18.3 71.3 0.0%