Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#224
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#177
Pace71.3#93
Improvement+1.6#117

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#314
First Shot-5.6#326
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#163
Layup/Dunks+2.3#101
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#266
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#336
Freethrows-0.9#241
Improvement-0.4#199

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#115
First Shot+3.1#76
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#289
Layups/Dunks+3.7#54
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#312
Freethrows+0.5#150
Improvement+1.9#82
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.6% 35.5% 30.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 98.9% 99.9% 97.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.7% 5.9% 11.0%
First Round29.7% 32.6% 24.3%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Away) - 65.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 00 - 5
Quad 31 - 21 - 7
Quad 418 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 243   @ South Dakota L 79-93 45%     0 - 1 -15.9 -7.9 -6.5
  Nov 07, 2024 61   @ Iowa L 74-89 9%     0 - 2 -3.2 +0.2 -2.8
  Nov 13, 2024 339   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 68-70 71%     0 - 3 -11.0 -8.1 -2.9
  Nov 20, 2024 20   @ Texas A&M L 54-71 3%     0 - 4 +1.5 -3.5 +3.8
  Nov 30, 2024 123   @ Louisiana Tech W 73-70 22%     1 - 4 +7.7 +1.9 +5.8
  Dec 07, 2024 246   @ Tulsa W 70-66 46%     2 - 4 +1.8 +2.2 -0.2
  Dec 17, 2024 25   @ Mississippi L 61-74 4%     2 - 5 +4.4 -4.8 +9.7
  Dec 20, 2024 169   @ Loyola Marymount L 73-89 30%     2 - 6 -13.8 +4.8 -18.9
  Dec 22, 2024 59   @ USC L 51-82 8%     2 - 7 -18.3 -19.4 +2.8
  Dec 30, 2024 48   @ Nebraska L 43-77 7%     2 - 8 -20.4 -20.8 -1.4
  Jan 04, 2025 296   @ Texas Southern W 67-58 56%     3 - 8 1 - 0 +4.0 -4.5 +8.5
  Jan 06, 2025 356   @ Prairie View W 84-80 77%     4 - 8 2 - 0 -7.2 -3.3 -4.3
  Jan 11, 2025 321   Florida A&M W 91-57 79%     5 - 8 3 - 0 +22.0 +16.5 +7.3
  Jan 13, 2025 293   Bethune-Cookman W 69-53 73%     6 - 8 4 - 0 +6.1 -10.3 +15.6
  Jan 18, 2025 327   Grambling St. W 67-60 81%     7 - 8 5 - 0 -5.7 -7.1 +1.6
  Jan 25, 2025 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83-67 90%     8 - 8 6 - 0 -1.2 -3.7 +1.5
  Jan 27, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 63-42 97%     9 - 8 7 - 0 -4.8 -12.8 +10.8
  Feb 01, 2025 307   Alcorn St. W 74-69 77%     10 - 8 8 - 0 -6.0 -4.9 -1.2
  Feb 03, 2025 271   Jackson St. W 91-89 OT 68%     11 - 8 9 - 0 -6.3 +2.7 -9.3
  Feb 08, 2025 359   @ Alabama A&M W 81-68 80%     12 - 8 10 - 0 +0.9 +5.2 -4.1
  Feb 10, 2025 311   @ Alabama St. L 81-82 61%     12 - 9 10 - 1 -7.2 +2.6 -9.7
  Feb 15, 2025 356   Prairie View W 72-60 88%     13 - 9 11 - 1 -4.3 -11.2 +6.5
  Feb 17, 2025 296   Texas Southern W 66-57 74%     14 - 9 12 - 1 -1.1 -12.5 +10.8
  Feb 22, 2025 327   @ Grambling St. W 67-63 65%    
  Mar 01, 2025 293   @ Bethune-Cookman W 70-69 54%    
  Mar 03, 2025 321   @ Florida A&M W 73-69 61%    
  Mar 06, 2025 311   Alabama St. W 75-67 79%    
  Mar 08, 2025 359   Alabama A&M W 80-66 92%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 16 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.6 14.0 30.6 35.6 17.1 98.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 2.5 14.0 30.6 35.6 17.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 17.1    17.1
16-2 100.0% 35.6    35.6
15-3 100.0% 30.6    30.6
14-4 100.0% 14.0    8.7 5.2 0.1
13-5 64.6% 1.6    0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 98.9% 98.9 92.1 5.9 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 17.1% 40.7% 40.7% 14.6 0.3 2.3 4.1 0.2 10.1
16-2 35.6% 35.5% 35.5% 15.5 0.4 5.8 6.5 23.0
15-3 30.6% 31.4% 31.4% 15.8 0.0 1.9 7.6 21.0
14-4 14.0% 27.6% 27.6% 15.9 0.4 3.5 10.2
13-5 2.5% 21.3% 21.3% 16.0 0.5 2.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0 0.2
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 33.6% 33.6% 0.0% 15.5 0.3 2.7 12.2 18.4 66.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.0% 100.0% 14.6 4.2 33.1 59.3 3.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.0%