South Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#249
Expected Predictive Rating+2.7#146
Pace71.0#121
Improvement-0.6#263

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#157
First Shot+2.3#104
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#260
Layup/Dunks+0.7#155
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#119
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#158
Freethrows-0.1#189
Improvement+0.2#142

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#334
First Shot-3.7#292
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#268
Layups/Dunks-6.2#345
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#199
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#164
Freethrows+1.7#90
Improvement-0.8#288
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.1% 9.7% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 47.4% 50.9% 25.1%
.500 or above in Conference 52.2% 54.5% 37.9%
Conference Champion 10.8% 11.6% 5.5%
Last Place in Conference 15.0% 13.6% 23.3%
First Four1.6% 1.6% 1.8%
First Round8.3% 8.9% 4.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 86.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 52 - 8
Quad 412 - 715 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 275   Southern W 93-79 67%     1 - 0 +5.1 +7.5 -4.0
  Nov 06, 2024 352   Texas A&M - Commerce W 80-68 86%    
  Nov 12, 2024 41   @ Iowa L 77-96 5%     1 - 1 -4.7 +6.0 -9.8
  Nov 20, 2024 319   @ Western Michigan W 77-76 55%    
  Nov 22, 2024 323   @ Southern Indiana W 76-74 56%    
  Nov 27, 2024 65   @ Nebraska L 68-84 7%    
  Dec 04, 2024 236   Idaho St. W 70-68 59%    
  Dec 07, 2024 277   @ Northern Arizona L 74-75 45%    
  Dec 10, 2024 185   Wyoming L 75-76 50%    
  Dec 14, 2024 325   Western Illinois W 75-67 76%    
  Dec 19, 2024 304   @ Utah Tech W 79-78 52%    
  Dec 21, 2024 99   @ Santa Clara L 73-86 13%    
  Jan 02, 2025 215   @ UMKC L 71-76 34%    
  Jan 04, 2025 295   Denver W 83-77 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 163   @ St. Thomas L 72-79 27%    
  Jan 16, 2025 250   Oral Roberts W 79-76 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 242   North Dakota St. W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 23, 2025 255   @ North Dakota L 75-78 42%    
  Jan 25, 2025 183   @ South Dakota St. L 74-80 30%    
  Jan 29, 2025 262   Nebraska Omaha W 79-75 63%    
  Feb 06, 2025 295   @ Denver L 79-80 49%    
  Feb 08, 2025 250   @ Oral Roberts L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 13, 2025 215   UMKC W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 15, 2025 183   South Dakota St. L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 19, 2025 163   St. Thomas L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 22, 2025 262   @ Nebraska Omaha L 76-78 42%    
  Feb 26, 2025 242   @ North Dakota St. L 74-77 39%    
  Mar 01, 2025 255   North Dakota W 78-75 62%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.1 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 10.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.7 4.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 11.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 5.0 4.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.2 4.7 0.9 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.6 5.2 1.0 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.3 5.4 1.2 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 3.9 4.9 1.4 0.1 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.6 4.0 1.4 0.1 10.5 8th
9th 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.0 2.4 0.8 0.1 9.4 9th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.3 6.8 9.5 11.5 12.3 12.8 12.0 9.6 7.6 5.1 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
14-2 98.1% 1.4    1.3 0.1
13-3 86.6% 2.7    2.1 0.6 0.0
12-4 61.7% 3.1    1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
11-5 30.0% 2.3    0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-6 6.7% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 10.8% 10.8 6.5 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 61.1% 61.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.5% 42.7% 42.7% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-2 1.5% 39.9% 39.9% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.9
13-3 3.1% 32.9% 32.9% 13.9 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.1
12-4 5.1% 24.7% 24.7% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 3.8
11-5 7.6% 18.4% 18.4% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 6.2
10-6 9.6% 14.0% 14.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 8.3
9-7 12.0% 10.1% 10.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 10.8
8-8 12.8% 7.4% 7.4% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.7 11.9
7-9 12.3% 4.9% 4.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 11.7
6-10 11.5% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3 11.2
5-11 9.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 9.4
4-12 6.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.7
3-13 4.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.3
2-14 2.3% 2.3
1-15 0.9% 0.9
0-16 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 2.9 3.0 90.9 0.0%