South Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#243
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#196
Pace81.4#3
Improvement+1.3#131

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#112
First Shot-0.3#187
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#41
Layup/Dunks+1.4#131
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#183
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#333
Freethrows+3.8#16
Improvement-2.5#300

Defense
Total Defense-6.5#346
First Shot-3.5#290
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#351
Layups/Dunks-2.0#259
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#87
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#278
Freethrows-0.3#205
Improvement+3.8#24
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 3.5% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.5
.500 or above 78.3% 85.4% 44.3%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round3.2% 3.3% 2.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 82.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 33 - 10
Quad 413 - 415 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 224   Southern W 93-79 55%     1 - 0 +8.1 +10.5 -4.0
  Nov 06, 2024 339   Texas A&M - Commerce W 86-76 83%    
  Nov 12, 2024 61   @ Iowa L 77-96 7%     1 - 1 -7.2 +2.8 -9.2
  Nov 20, 2024 302   @ Western Michigan W 80-76 53%     2 - 1 -1.4 +1.9 -3.4
  Nov 22, 2024 343   @ Southern Indiana L 83-92 69%     2 - 2 -18.7 +0.6 -18.7
  Nov 27, 2024 48   @ Nebraska L 79-96 6%     2 - 3 -3.4 +6.9 -9.0
  Dec 04, 2024 229   Idaho St. W 94-80 57%     3 - 3 +7.8 +21.6 -13.1
  Dec 07, 2024 264   @ Northern Arizona L 82-95 44%     3 - 4 -15.9 +1.3 -16.2
  Dec 10, 2024 166   Wyoming W 82-81 44%     4 - 4 -1.8 +3.2 -5.1
  Dec 14, 2024 351   Western Illinois W 89-66 85%     5 - 4 +7.5 +10.8 -2.6
  Dec 19, 2024 290   @ Utah Tech L 87-92 50%     5 - 5 -9.5 +7.4 -16.7
  Dec 21, 2024 60   @ Santa Clara L 81-98 7%     5 - 6 -4.7 +5.7 -8.8
  Jan 02, 2025 245   @ UMKC L 54-68 41%     5 - 7 0 - 1 -16.2 -13.3 -4.2
  Jan 04, 2025 315   Denver W 91-84 76%     6 - 7 1 - 1 -4.7 +7.9 -13.0
  Jan 11, 2025 126   @ St. Thomas L 104-119 20%     6 - 8 1 - 2 -10.7 +19.6 -28.9
  Jan 16, 2025 322   Oral Roberts W 92-82 76%     7 - 8 2 - 2 -2.0 +0.8 -3.9
  Jan 18, 2025 136   North Dakota St. L 77-103 38%     7 - 9 2 - 3 -27.2 -4.0 -22.3
  Jan 23, 2025 278   @ North Dakota W 102-93 48%     8 - 9 3 - 3 +5.1 +10.1 -6.2
  Jan 25, 2025 111   @ South Dakota St. L 71-90 17%     8 - 10 3 - 4 -13.2 -4.4 -7.6
  Jan 29, 2025 187   Nebraska Omaha W 91-87 49%     9 - 10 4 - 4 -0.1 +6.8 -7.2
  Feb 06, 2025 315   @ Denver W 86-79 58%     10 - 10 5 - 4 +0.4 +3.3 -3.5
  Feb 08, 2025 322   @ Oral Roberts W 75-74 59%     11 - 10 6 - 4 -5.9 -10.8 +4.8
  Feb 13, 2025 245   UMKC W 79-72 61%     12 - 10 7 - 4 -0.3 -1.8 +0.9
  Feb 16, 2025 111   South Dakota St. L 91-94 31%     12 - 11 7 - 5 -2.3 +9.6 -11.7
  Feb 19, 2025 126   St. Thomas W 85-80 36%     13 - 11 8 - 5 +4.2 +9.6 -5.2
  Feb 22, 2025 187   @ Nebraska Omaha L 84-89 29%    
  Feb 26, 2025 136   @ North Dakota St. L 81-89 20%    
  Mar 01, 2025 278   North Dakota W 92-87 68%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.6 0.6 2nd
3rd 1.4 2.1 3.5 3rd
4th 1.9 15.7 2.1 19.7 4th
5th 19.9 46.3 10.0 76.2 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 19.9 48.2 27.2 4.8 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 4.8% 7.6% 7.6% 14.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.4
10-6 27.2% 3.8% 3.8% 15.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 26.1
9-7 48.2% 2.9% 2.9% 15.5 0.0 0.7 0.7 46.9
8-8 19.9% 2.9% 2.9% 15.7 0.2 0.4 19.3
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 15.4 0.3 1.6 1.5 96.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 14.6 41.9 54.8 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3%
Lose Out 2.8%