South Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#235
Expected Predictive Rating-3.1#219
Pace77.2#23
Improvement-1.6#281

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#87
First Shot+0.9#154
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#50
Layup/Dunks+1.8#115
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#179
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#309
Freethrows+3.6#24
Improvement-0.1#182

Defense
Total Defense-7.4#357
First Shot-3.9#303
After Offensive Rebounds-3.6#355
Layups/Dunks-0.9#202
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#71
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#314
Freethrows-0.9#255
Improvement-1.5#297
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 5.9% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.2 15.4
.500 or above 45.1% 48.2% 26.0%
.500 or above in Conference 53.6% 54.9% 45.2%
Conference Champion 5.0% 5.2% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 8.8% 8.4% 11.8%
First Four1.2% 1.2% 1.5%
First Round5.2% 5.4% 3.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 86.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 42 - 8
Quad 412 - 714 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 232   Southern W 93-79 60%     1 - 0 +7.3 +8.5 -2.7
  Nov 06, 2024 353   Texas A&M - Commerce W 86-74 86%    
  Nov 12, 2024 42   @ Iowa L 77-96 6%     1 - 1 -5.2 +5.0 -9.4
  Nov 20, 2024 296   @ Western Michigan W 80-76 50%     2 - 1 -0.2 +1.6 -1.9
  Nov 22, 2024 282   @ Southern Indiana L 83-92 49%     2 - 2 -12.7 +3.6 -15.7
  Nov 27, 2024 53   @ Nebraska L 79-96 7%     2 - 3 -4.0 +7.4 -10.1
  Dec 04, 2024 251   Idaho St. W 94-80 65%     3 - 3 +6.0 +23.6 -16.9
  Dec 07, 2024 285   @ Northern Arizona L 82-95 49%     3 - 4 -16.8 -0.5 -15.2
  Dec 10, 2024 161   Wyoming W 82-81 47%     4 - 4 -2.2 +2.1 -4.4
  Dec 14, 2024 331   Western Illinois W 89-66 80%     5 - 4 +10.0 +12.4 -1.7
  Dec 19, 2024 287   @ Utah Tech L 87-92 49%     5 - 5 -8.8 +8.4 -17.1
  Dec 21, 2024 72   @ Santa Clara L 77-92 8%    
  Jan 02, 2025 240   @ UMKC L 78-81 40%    
  Jan 04, 2025 318   Denver W 86-78 77%    
  Jan 11, 2025 142   @ St. Thomas L 80-88 23%    
  Jan 16, 2025 294   Oral Roberts W 87-81 71%    
  Jan 18, 2025 130   North Dakota St. L 81-84 39%    
  Jan 23, 2025 278   @ North Dakota L 84-85 47%    
  Jan 25, 2025 123   @ South Dakota St. L 78-88 19%    
  Jan 29, 2025 298   Nebraska Omaha W 85-79 71%    
  Feb 06, 2025 318   @ Denver W 83-81 56%    
  Feb 08, 2025 294   @ Oral Roberts W 84-83 50%    
  Feb 13, 2025 240   UMKC W 81-78 61%    
  Feb 15, 2025 123   South Dakota St. L 81-85 37%    
  Feb 19, 2025 142   St. Thomas L 83-85 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 298   @ Nebraska Omaha W 82-81 50%    
  Feb 26, 2025 130   @ North Dakota St. L 78-87 21%    
  Mar 01, 2025 278   North Dakota W 87-82 68%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.7 3.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 9.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.7 5.4 2.1 0.2 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 6.9 7.0 2.3 0.2 18.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 6.9 6.5 1.5 0.1 16.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 5.8 5.6 1.0 0.1 14.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.4 4.4 0.9 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 2.9 0.7 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.6 9th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.6 5.7 9.1 12.6 15.2 15.5 13.9 10.6 7.1 4.0 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-2 95.7% 0.5    0.4 0.1
13-3 77.9% 1.3    0.9 0.4 0.0
12-4 44.7% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
11-5 14.3% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 2.4 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.1% 23.9% 23.9% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.6% 28.2% 28.2% 13.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
13-3 1.7% 21.6% 21.6% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3
12-4 4.0% 17.2% 17.2% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 3.3
11-5 7.1% 13.3% 13.3% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 6.2
10-6 10.6% 8.6% 8.6% 15.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 9.7
9-7 13.9% 6.3% 6.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 13.1
8-8 15.5% 5.0% 5.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 14.7
7-9 15.2% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.0 0.5 14.7
6-10 12.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.3 12.4
5-11 9.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 9.0
4-12 5.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.6
3-13 2.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.6
2-14 1.0% 1.0
1-15 0.3% 0.3
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.4 94.3 0.0%