South Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#268
Expected Predictive Rating-4.6#240
Pace78.9#10
Improvement-3.7#331

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#111
First Shot-0.1#178
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#36
Layup/Dunks+1.5#130
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#180
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#333
Freethrows+3.9#14
Improvement-2.2#301

Defense
Total Defense-8.5#358
First Shot-5.1#328
After Offensive Rebounds-3.4#355
Layups/Dunks-2.7#287
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#87
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#296
Freethrows-0.6#229
Improvement-1.5#267
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 15.6% 17.8% 4.7%
.500 or above in Conference 25.0% 26.0% 19.8%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 4.8% 5.8%
First Four1.0% 0.9% 1.3%
First Round1.3% 1.3% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 83.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 42 - 10
Quad 411 - 613 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 219   Southern W 93-79 50%     1 - 0 +8.0 +10.5 -4.0
  Nov 06, 2024 354   Texas A&M - Commerce W 85-75 84%    
  Nov 12, 2024 50   @ Iowa L 77-96 5%     1 - 1 -5.6 +2.5 -7.3
  Nov 20, 2024 304   @ Western Michigan W 80-76 47%     2 - 1 -1.2 +1.0 -2.3
  Nov 22, 2024 324   @ Southern Indiana L 83-92 54%     2 - 2 -16.1 +2.0 -17.6
  Nov 27, 2024 52   @ Nebraska L 79-96 5%     2 - 3 -3.7 +7.2 -9.6
  Dec 04, 2024 217   Idaho St. W 94-80 49%     3 - 3 +8.1 +22.6 -13.9
  Dec 07, 2024 264   @ Northern Arizona L 82-95 39%     3 - 4 -16.1 +0.9 -16.0
  Dec 10, 2024 186   Wyoming W 82-81 42%     4 - 4 -2.9 +1.6 -4.6
  Dec 14, 2024 336   Western Illinois W 89-66 78%     5 - 4 +8.8 +11.3 -1.8
  Dec 19, 2024 284   @ Utah Tech L 87-92 43%     5 - 5 -9.4 +8.8 -17.9
  Dec 21, 2024 67   @ Santa Clara L 81-98 6%     5 - 6 -5.9 +4.7 -9.0
  Jan 02, 2025 223   @ UMKC L 54-68 31%     5 - 7 0 - 1 -14.8 -13.0 -3.0
  Jan 04, 2025 340   Denver W 91-84 78%     6 - 7 1 - 1 -7.3 +4.7 -12.4
  Jan 11, 2025 125   @ St. Thomas L 104-119 15%     6 - 8 1 - 2 -9.8 +21.1 -29.6
  Jan 16, 2025 311   Oral Roberts W 92-82 70%     7 - 8 2 - 2 -1.3 +0.4 -2.7
  Jan 18, 2025 112   North Dakota St. L 77-103 27%     7 - 9 2 - 3 -25.6 -3.1 -21.7
  Jan 23, 2025 277   @ North Dakota L 87-89 41%    
  Jan 25, 2025 114   @ South Dakota St. L 80-92 13%    
  Jan 29, 2025 222   Nebraska Omaha W 85-84 52%    
  Feb 06, 2025 340   @ Denver W 85-82 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 311   @ Oral Roberts L 87-88 49%    
  Feb 13, 2025 223   UMKC W 79-78 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 114   South Dakota St. L 83-89 29%    
  Feb 19, 2025 125   St. Thomas L 84-90 30%    
  Feb 22, 2025 222   @ Nebraska Omaha L 82-87 30%    
  Feb 26, 2025 112   @ North Dakota St. L 79-91 14%    
  Mar 01, 2025 277   North Dakota W 90-87 63%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.6 3rd
4th 0.4 2.7 3.7 1.0 0.1 7.8 4th
5th 0.3 3.2 9.0 8.9 2.4 0.2 23.8 5th
6th 0.2 4.7 12.0 9.5 2.4 0.1 28.9 6th
7th 0.4 4.2 10.2 6.0 0.8 0.0 21.6 7th
8th 0.3 3.1 6.1 2.9 0.4 0.0 12.8 8th
9th 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.4 9th
Total 0.8 4.2 10.7 18.1 21.5 19.7 14.1 7.2 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0
12-4 47.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 6.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0% 0.0
12-4 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-5 0.8% 10.4% 10.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.7
10-6 2.8% 5.1% 5.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6
9-7 7.2% 2.2% 2.2% 15.5 0.1 0.1 7.1
8-8 14.1% 3.1% 3.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 13.6
7-9 19.7% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.4 19.3
6-10 21.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 21.2
5-11 18.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 17.9
4-12 10.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.6
3-13 4.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.2
2-14 0.8% 0.8
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 15.7 0.1 0.4 1.4 98.2 0.0%