Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
111 South Dakota St. 35.3%   14   15 - 10 9 - 4 17 - 11 11 - 5 +3.3      +3.0 93 +0.3 163 71.4 91 +2.0 137 +1.7 3
126 St. Thomas 24.2%   17 - 8 10 - 3 19 - 9 12 - 4 +1.8      +5.3 60 -3.5 278 69.0 156 +3.1 121 +4.6 2
136 North Dakota St. 21.7%   17 - 9 9 - 5 18 - 10 10 - 6 +1.3      +5.7 53 -4.4 307 63.7 296 +2.0 136 +0.2 4
187 Nebraska Omaha 11.1%   15 - 12 11 - 3 17 - 12 13 - 3 -1.6      +2.4 106 -4.0 295 68.3 179 -0.2 169 +5.5 1
243 South Dakota 3.4%   13 - 11 8 - 5 15 - 13 9 - 7 -4.5      +2.1 112 -6.5 346 81.4 3 -1.9 196 -0.6 5
245 UMKC 2.1%   7 - 17 3 - 10 8 - 19 4 - 12 -4.8      -4.0 285 -0.7 191 63.4 306 -8.1 299 -10.9 8
278 North Dakota 1.5%   7 - 18 4 - 9 8 - 20 5 - 11 -6.5      +0.8 157 -7.2 353 70.7 113 -8.1 298 -8.9 7
315 Denver 0.6%   7 - 19 4 - 10 7 - 21 4 - 12 -9.2      -5.4 315 -3.8 287 66.9 214 -8.8 307 -8.7 6
322 Oral Roberts 0.2%   3 - 19 2 - 11 4 - 21 3 - 13 -9.5      -1.9 227 -7.6 354 68.8 163 -12.9 340 -13.7 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
South Dakota St. 2.5 9.7 32.4 53.1 4.6 0.1
St. Thomas 1.4 69.8 25.4 4.5 0.3
North Dakota St. 3.8 0.1 3.1 26.6 61.8 8.4
Nebraska Omaha 1.3 76.1 21.4 2.5
South Dakota 4.7 0.0 0.6 3.5 19.7 76.2
UMKC 6.9 37.2 36.0 25.0 1.8
North Dakota 6.3 74.3 23.8 2.0
Denver 6.6 49.0 39.2 11.7 0.1
Oral Roberts 8.8 1.8 4.2 8.9 85.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
South Dakota St. 11 - 5 0.5 7.6 34.3 57.7
St. Thomas 12 - 4 0.7 8.2 35.0 56.1
North Dakota St. 10 - 6 7.2 38.9 53.9
Nebraska Omaha 13 - 3 4.7 34.1 61.2
South Dakota 9 - 7 19.9 48.2 27.2 4.8
UMKC 4 - 12 17.4 58.8 21.5 2.3
North Dakota 5 - 11 40.3 42.0 16.0 1.7
Denver 4 - 12 62.5 32.5 5.0
Oral Roberts 3 - 13 56.0 34.8 8.6 0.7




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Dakota St. 9.7% 0.3 2.5 6.8 0.1
St. Thomas 69.8% 22.6 40.3 6.8 0.1
North Dakota St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
Nebraska Omaha 76.1% 28.3 40.9 6.8 0.1
South Dakota 0.0% 0.0
UMKC
North Dakota
Denver
Oral Roberts


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Dakota St. 35.3% 35.3% 0.0% 14   0.0 7.3 19.0 8.4 0.6 64.7 0.0%
St. Thomas 24.2% 24.2% 0.0% 0.0 3.4 12.2 7.6 1.0 75.9 0.0%
North Dakota St. 21.7% 21.7% 0.0% 0.0 6.2 11.6 3.7 0.2 78.3 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 4.1 5.2 1.3 88.9 0.0%
South Dakota 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.3 1.6 1.5 96.7 0.0%
UMKC 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 2.1 98.0 0.0%
North Dakota 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 1.5 98.5 0.0%
Denver 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Oral Roberts 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Dakota St. 35.3% 0.0% 35.3% 3.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Thomas 24.2% 0.0% 24.2% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 21.7% 0.0% 21.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 11.1% 0.2% 11.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 3.4% 0.4% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 2.1% 2.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 1.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.0% 1.0 2.0 98.0
2nd Round 6.4% 0.1 93.6 6.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0