Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
123 South Dakota St. 31.4%   14   6 - 5 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 5 +2.5      +1.6 128 +0.9 143 69.6 159 +2.0 138 0.0 1
130 North Dakota St. 27.6%   7 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 9 11 - 5 +1.8      +4.9 57 -3.0 268 63.6 312 +4.1 107 0.0 1
142 St. Thomas 22.2%   6 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 5 +0.8      +2.5 106 -1.7 228 68.4 194 +1.2 150 0.0 1
235 South Dakota 5.7%   5 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 14 8 - 8 -4.1      +3.4 87 -7.4 357 77.2 23 -3.1 219 0.0 1
240 UMKC 5.5%   3 - 7 0 - 0 11 - 16 8 - 8 -4.3      -3.1 260 -1.2 206 66.4 251 -6.9 284 0.0 1
278 North Dakota 2.5%   3 - 9 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 10 -6.4      -0.6 184 -5.9 345 68.9 182 -6.5 277 0.0 1
294 Oral Roberts 2.4%   1 - 7 0 - 0 7 - 18 6 - 10 -7.1      -1.7 220 -5.4 335 68.5 191 -11.3 328 0.0 1
298 Nebraska Omaha 1.8%   3 - 9 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 10 -7.2      -3.4 270 -3.9 294 67.9 212 -7.1 289 0.0 1
318 Denver 1.0%   3 - 8 0 - 0 8 - 20 5 - 11 -8.8      -3.4 273 -5.4 336 67.6 216 -8.2 303 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
South Dakota St. 2.1 43.3 26.4 15.3 7.6 4.0 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1
North Dakota St. 2.3 37.2 27.1 17.5 9.3 4.7 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.1
St. Thomas 2.7 28.3 25.4 20.3 12.1 6.8 3.9 2.0 0.9 0.3
South Dakota 4.8 5.0 9.5 13.5 18.2 16.8 14.0 10.9 7.6 4.6
UMKC 4.9 4.6 9.0 13.2 17.4 17.5 14.3 11.1 8.1 5.0
North Dakota 5.9 1.6 4.0 7.6 12.3 15.5 16.9 16.3 14.9 10.8
Oral Roberts 6.2 1.5 3.5 6.5 10.4 13.6 15.3 16.7 16.7 15.8
Nebraska Omaha 6.3 1.1 2.8 5.7 10.3 13.6 16.4 17.8 17.6 14.8
Denver 7.0 0.4 1.3 3.3 6.2 9.8 13.2 17.4 22.0 26.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
South Dakota St. 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 5.1 8.4 12.8 16.8 18.0 16.2 11.4 5.5 1.5
North Dakota St. 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.2 6.3 9.6 14.5 17.4 17.4 14.6 9.3 4.4 1.0
St. Thomas 11 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.7 5.1 8.6 12.5 15.8 16.6 15.2 11.6 6.8 2.8 0.6
South Dakota 8 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.6 5.7 9.1 12.6 15.2 15.5 13.9 10.6 7.1 4.0 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
UMKC 8 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.0 5.8 9.5 13.1 15.3 15.4 13.6 10.4 6.9 3.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
North Dakota 6 - 10 0.2 1.0 3.1 6.3 11.2 14.6 16.2 15.5 12.8 9.1 5.6 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oral Roberts 6 - 10 0.4 1.9 4.9 8.8 12.5 15.1 15.8 13.7 10.9 7.7 4.5 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 6 - 10 0.3 1.5 4.4 8.8 13.2 16.2 16.4 14.3 10.8 7.2 3.9 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Denver 5 - 11 0.9 3.6 8.2 13.7 17.0 17.3 14.4 10.8 6.9 4.2 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Dakota St. 43.3% 30.5 10.5 2.1 0.3 0.0
North Dakota St. 37.2% 25.3 9.7 2.0 0.3 0.0
St. Thomas 28.3% 18.2 7.9 1.8 0.2 0.0
South Dakota 5.0% 2.4 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
UMKC 4.6% 2.2 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
North Dakota 1.6% 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Oral Roberts 1.5% 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 1.1% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Denver 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Dakota St. 31.4% 31.4% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.5 11.5 10.4 4.1 0.6 68.6 0.0%
North Dakota St. 27.6% 27.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 6.2 11.3 7.0 2.2 0.2 72.4 0.0%
St. Thomas 22.2% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 6.0 7.9 5.4 1.2 77.8 0.0%
South Dakota 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.4 94.3 0.0%
UMKC 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.2 94.5 0.0%
North Dakota 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.0 97.5 0.0%
Oral Roberts 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.1 97.6 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 98.2 0.0%
Denver 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 99.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Dakota St. 31.4% 0.2% 31.3% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 27.6% 0.1% 27.5% 2.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Thomas 22.2% 0.3% 22.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 5.7% 1.2% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 5.5% 2.2% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 2.5% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 2.4% 1.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.5% 1.0 4.5 95.5
2nd Round 7.9% 0.1 92.1 7.9
Sweet Sixteen 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0