Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
112 North Dakota St. 29.8%   14   12 - 6 4 - 2 19 - 9 11 - 5 +3.1      +6.4 40 -3.3 272 64.7 277 +2.3 129 -1.3 3
114 South Dakota St. 27.1%   9 - 8 3 - 2 17 - 11 11 - 5 +2.9      +2.6 106 +0.4 158 71.7 94 +0.5 163 -3.4 4
124 St. Thomas 27.9%   12 - 5 5 - 0 20 - 8 13 - 3 +2.4      +4.5 63 -2.1 240 69.8 147 +4.1 107 +14.8 2
221 Nebraska Omaha 6.4%   9 - 9 5 - 0 15 - 14 11 - 5 -3.4      0.0 179 -3.3 273 67.9 201 -1.6 201 +15.1 1
223 UMKC 4.5%   6 - 10 2 - 3 11 - 16 7 - 9 -3.5      -3.0 250 -0.6 191 64.1 294 -5.5 255 -6.6 5
269 South Dakota 1.8%   7 - 9 2 - 3 12 - 16 6 - 10 -6.1      +2.4 111 -8.5 358 78.9 10 -4.6 244 -7.2 6
278 North Dakota 1.6%   5 - 13 2 - 4 9 - 19 6 - 10 -6.6      +0.8 156 -7.3 350 70.2 135 -7.2 280 -8.1 7
312 Oral Roberts 0.8%   2 - 12 1 - 4 6 - 19 5 - 11 -8.6      -0.7 196 -7.9 356 69.9 146 -10.9 325 -9.9 8
340 Denver 0.1%   3 - 15 0 - 6 5 - 23 2 - 14 -11.5      -4.7 299 -6.8 347 67.2 221 -12.1 332 -19.0 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
North Dakota St. 2.5 20.3 32.3 25.9 17.5 3.4 0.5 0.1
South Dakota St. 2.7 18.2 29.1 25.3 19.6 5.7 1.7 0.4 0.0
St. Thomas 1.5 70.0 17.7 7.9 3.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 2.8 18.3 23.6 27.3 23.3 5.8 1.4 0.3 0.0
UMKC 5.2 0.7 2.5 6.6 15.1 38.2 22.6 9.6 4.0 0.7
South Dakota 6.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 7.4 24.0 28.9 21.5 12.7 1.4
North Dakota 6.4 0.0 0.3 1.1 4.1 18.0 28.2 29.1 16.9 2.3
Oral Roberts 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 8.7 17.8 26.7 33.7 10.8
Denver 8.5 0.1 0.7 2.6 7.3 19.7 69.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
North Dakota St. 11 - 5 0.1 0.7 3.7 9.9 19.5 25.9 23.7 13.2 3.3
South Dakota St. 11 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 6.1 12.4 18.9 23.3 21.1 12.1 3.1
St. Thomas 13 - 3 0.1 0.5 1.8 5.2 11.7 19.6 24.7 21.5 11.7 3.2
Nebraska Omaha 11 - 5 0.0 0.6 2.3 7.2 14.7 20.5 21.3 18.6 9.9 3.8 0.9 0.1
UMKC 7 - 9 0.1 1.0 4.2 9.1 16.3 21.3 20.6 15.5 8.1 2.9 0.8 0.1
South Dakota 6 - 10 0.8 4.5 10.8 18.0 21.8 19.8 13.6 7.1 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
North Dakota 6 - 10 0.9 5.6 14.5 23.4 24.9 17.3 9.1 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
Oral Roberts 5 - 11 1.4 7.0 15.0 22.7 22.2 17.2 9.0 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0
Denver 2 - 14 8.1 20.8 27.4 22.8 13.0 5.7 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
North Dakota St. 20.3% 9.1 8.1 2.7 0.4 0.0
South Dakota St. 18.2% 7.5 8.0 2.4 0.3 0.0
St. Thomas 70.0% 51.4 14.8 3.4 0.4 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 18.3% 8.6 6.9 2.4 0.3
UMKC 0.7% 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
South Dakota 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Dakota 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oral Roberts 0.0% 0.0
Denver


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
North Dakota St. 29.8% 29.8% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.8 10.1 13.8 4.6 0.4 0.0 70.2 0.0%
South Dakota St. 27.1% 27.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 4.7 11.9 7.7 2.1 0.1 73.0 0.0%
St. Thomas 27.9% 27.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 5.8 12.3 7.9 1.4 0.0 72.1 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.0 2.3 93.7 0.0%
UMKC 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.9 95.5 0.0%
South Dakota 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 1.3 98.2 0.0%
North Dakota 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 1.6 98.4 0.0%
Oral Roberts 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8 99.2 0.0%
Denver 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
North Dakota St. 29.8% 0.0% 29.8% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota St. 27.1% 0.1% 27.0% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Thomas 27.9% 0.0% 27.9% 2.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 6.4% 0.9% 5.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 4.5% 2.1% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 1.8% 0.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 1.6% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.2% 1.0 2.8 97.2
2nd Round 8.4% 0.1 91.7 8.4
Sweet Sixteen 1.5% 0.0 98.6 1.5
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0