Preseason Rankings
Summit League
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
178 South Dakota St. 21.5%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 12 10 - 6 -0.7      -0.1 167 -0.6 184 69.3 146 0.0 1 0.0 1
201 St. Thomas 15.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 7 -2.0      -0.4 186 -1.7 231 59.7 356 0.0 1 0.0 1
205 UMKC 15.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 7 -2.3      -1.9 241 -0.4 179 66.5 242 0.0 1 0.0 1
225 Oral Roberts 12.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 14 9 - 7 -3.2      -0.3 180 -2.9 271 68.4 174 0.0 1 0.0 1
234 North Dakota St. 11.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 8 - 8 -3.5      -0.7 194 -2.8 267 64.7 288 0.0 1 0.0 1
263 North Dakota 7.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 8 - 8 -4.9      -1.8 233 -3.2 279 66.9 227 0.0 1 0.0 1
274 South Dakota 7.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 7 - 9 -5.4      -0.3 181 -5.0 335 71.0 100 0.0 1 0.0 1
302 Nebraska Omaha 4.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 10 -7.2      -3.0 272 -4.2 319 67.9 193 0.0 1 0.0 1
317 Denver 2.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 10 -8.5      -2.7 264 -5.8 349 74.7 43 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
South Dakota St. 3.2 28.6 19.2 14.3 11.1 8.8 6.8 5.3 3.7 2.1
St. Thomas 3.8 20.8 16.5 14.4 12.5 10.8 8.8 7.4 5.3 3.5
UMKC 3.9 19.8 16.1 14.3 12.5 11.0 9.2 7.4 5.8 3.9
Oral Roberts 4.3 15.5 14.0 13.5 12.9 11.6 10.4 9.4 7.3 5.4
North Dakota St. 4.4 14.3 13.8 13.3 12.7 11.9 10.7 9.6 7.7 5.9
North Dakota 5.0 9.6 10.7 11.6 11.9 12.5 12.3 11.8 10.9 8.7
South Dakota 5.2 8.2 9.4 10.6 11.6 12.1 12.6 12.8 12.4 10.2
Nebraska Omaha 6.0 4.5 6.3 7.8 9.3 11.1 13.0 14.6 16.6 16.9
Denver 6.5 2.7 4.3 5.9 7.7 9.6 11.9 15.1 18.4 24.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
South Dakota St. 10 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.6 5.5 7.5 9.6 11.4 12.8 12.9 11.5 9.6 6.7 3.7 1.1
St. Thomas 9 - 7 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.4 5.3 7.6 9.3 11.3 12.2 12.3 11.3 9.7 7.1 4.5 2.2 0.6
UMKC 9 - 7 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.6 7.6 9.9 11.2 12.0 12.2 11.0 9.2 6.8 4.3 2.1 0.6
Oral Roberts 9 - 7 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.0 4.7 7.0 9.3 10.7 12.1 12.2 11.1 9.7 7.7 5.3 3.1 1.4 0.3
North Dakota St. 8 - 8 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.3 5.3 7.1 9.4 11.1 12.0 12.3 11.2 9.2 7.5 4.9 2.7 1.3 0.3
North Dakota 8 - 8 0.3 1.2 2.7 4.8 7.3 9.4 11.2 11.9 12.3 11.2 9.5 7.3 5.2 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.1
South Dakota 7 - 9 0.4 1.5 3.2 5.6 8.2 10.4 11.6 12.1 12.0 10.7 8.6 6.4 4.6 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.1
Nebraska Omaha 6 - 10 0.9 2.9 5.7 8.7 11.0 12.3 12.6 12.1 10.4 8.5 6.0 4.2 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Denver 6 - 10 1.7 4.8 8.3 10.8 12.8 13.2 12.3 10.9 8.8 6.6 4.5 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Dakota St. 28.6% 19.9 6.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
St. Thomas 20.8% 13.8 5.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
UMKC 19.8% 13.1 5.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oral Roberts 15.5% 9.7 4.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Dakota St. 14.3% 9.0 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Dakota 9.6% 5.8 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
South Dakota 8.2% 4.8 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 4.5% 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Denver 2.7% 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Dakota St. 21.5% 21.5% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.0 5.5 5.3 4.4 78.5 0.0%
St. Thomas 15.8% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 3.7 4.5 4.2 84.2 0.0%
UMKC 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 3.5 4.5 4.3 84.5 0.0%
Oral Roberts 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.6 3.5 4.6 87.3 0.0%
North Dakota St. 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 3.3 4.3 88.2 0.0%
North Dakota 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.3 92.1 0.0%
South Dakota 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.2 92.8 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.3 2.4 95.5 0.0%
Denver 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.9 97.1 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Dakota St. 21.5% 2.3% 20.5% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Thomas 15.8% 2.4% 14.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 15.5% 2.2% 14.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 12.7% 2.8% 11.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 11.8% 2.5% 10.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 7.9% 2.1% 7.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 7.2% 1.9% 6.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 4.5% 1.7% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 2.9% 1.4% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 91.3% 0.9 8.7 91.2 0.0
2nd Round 6.2% 0.1 93.8 6.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0