Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
153 South Dakota St. 24.6%   15   3 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 11 10 - 6 +0.4      +0.9 153 -0.5 187 74.8 61 +4.9 112 0.0 1
168 St. Thomas 20.4%   1 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 6 -0.5      +0.6 165 -1.0 203 67.2 247 +1.9 159 0.0 1
217 UMKC 12.6%   0 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 14 9 - 7 -2.7      -2.4 246 -0.3 179 66.5 264 +5.1 108 0.0 1
239 South Dakota 9.0%   2 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 14 8 - 8 -4.0      +0.9 150 -4.9 327 71.8 105 +5.6 98 0.0 1
241 North Dakota St. 8.6%   1 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 8 -4.0      +0.3 170 -4.3 312 64.7 304 -4.6 247 0.0 1
249 Oral Roberts 7.6%   0 - 3 0 - 0 9 - 16 7 - 9 -4.6      -0.3 185 -4.3 315 68.4 207 -9.0 299 0.0 1
253 North Dakota 7.2%   1 - 2 0 - 0 11 - 15 7 - 9 -4.7      -2.4 243 -2.4 251 70.3 150 +1.8 164 0.0 1
259 Nebraska Omaha 6.4%   1 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 9 -5.1      -2.0 229 -3.1 273 70.1 153 -4.4 244 0.0 1
294 Denver 3.6%   1 - 2 0 - 0 10 - 18 6 - 10 -7.1      -3.0 262 -4.2 310 74.7 65 +0.8 181 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
South Dakota St. 2.9 34.6 20.8 13.9 10.1 7.6 5.4 3.9 2.5 1.4
St. Thomas 3.2 28.0 19.6 15.1 11.2 8.6 6.7 5.1 3.5 2.1
UMKC 4.3 15.8 14.7 13.7 12.7 11.3 10.0 8.8 7.6 5.5
South Dakota 4.8 10.3 11.9 12.5 12.2 12.4 11.9 10.9 10.0 7.9
North Dakota St. 4.8 9.7 11.4 12.6 12.6 12.8 12.0 11.1 10.2 7.6
Oral Roberts 5.1 8.3 10.1 11.3 11.7 12.5 12.1 12.2 11.5 10.3
North Dakota 5.2 7.9 9.6 10.9 11.7 12.5 12.2 12.5 11.8 10.8
Nebraska Omaha 5.4 6.4 8.6 10.4 11.6 12.3 13.3 13.0 12.9 11.5
Denver 6.3 3.4 5.1 6.6 8.3 10.3 11.7 14.7 17.8 22.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
South Dakota St. 10 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.2 6.7 9.3 11.6 13.7 14.0 13.4 10.7 7.2 3.7 1.0
St. Thomas 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.6 5.5 8.0 10.4 12.5 13.7 13.7 11.8 8.8 5.4 2.6 0.7
UMKC 9 - 7 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.5 7.1 9.2 11.3 12.7 12.7 12.1 9.9 7.2 4.8 2.7 1.1 0.3
South Dakota 8 - 8 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.7 6.3 9.1 11.4 13.0 13.1 12.2 10.4 7.7 5.3 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.1
North Dakota St. 8 - 8 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.7 6.2 9.3 11.7 13.4 13.1 12.7 10.4 7.7 4.9 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1
Oral Roberts 7 - 9 0.2 1.0 2.6 4.9 7.5 10.4 11.9 13.4 12.7 11.3 9.2 6.6 4.3 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1
North Dakota 7 - 9 0.2 1.1 2.8 5.1 7.7 10.4 12.6 13.3 12.9 11.0 8.8 6.4 4.0 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1
Nebraska Omaha 7 - 9 0.2 1.2 3.0 5.3 8.7 11.3 13.1 13.9 13.0 10.6 8.1 5.8 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1
Denver 6 - 10 0.9 3.0 6.4 9.6 12.7 13.8 13.6 12.2 9.7 7.2 5.0 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Dakota St. 34.6% 24.3 8.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
St. Thomas 28.0% 19.2 6.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
UMKC 15.8% 10.1 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Dakota 10.3% 6.1 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Dakota St. 9.7% 5.6 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Oral Roberts 8.3% 4.8 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Dakota 7.9% 4.5 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 6.4% 3.5 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Denver 3.4% 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Dakota St. 24.6% 24.6% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.2 6.7 7.2 5.2 2.1 75.4 0.0%
St. Thomas 20.4% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.2 5.7 5.3 3.2 79.6 0.0%
UMKC 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.2 3.7 2.9 87.4 0.0%
South Dakota 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.0 2.6 91.0 0.0%
North Dakota St. 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.5 3.8 91.4 0.0%
Oral Roberts 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 4.0 92.4 0.0%
North Dakota 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.2 2.8 92.8 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.4 93.6 0.0%
Denver 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 96.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Dakota St. 24.6% 1.0% 24.2% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Thomas 20.4% 1.6% 19.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 12.6% 1.6% 11.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 9.0% 1.3% 8.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 8.6% 2.4% 7.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 7.6% 3.0% 6.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 7.2% 1.9% 6.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 6.4% 2.4% 5.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 3.6% 1.5% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 92.5% 0.9 7.5 92.5 0.0
2nd Round 5.7% 0.1 94.3 5.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0