South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#117
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#144
Pace71.1#113
Improvement-1.0#241

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#124
First Shot-0.6#196
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#33
Layup/Dunks-0.6#206
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#209
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#119
Freethrows-1.2#259
Improvement-0.1#173

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#147
First Shot-1.9#231
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#14
Layups/Dunks+4.9#40
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#322
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#351
Freethrows+1.2#99
Improvement-1.0#247
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.0% 32.3% 25.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 13.7
.500 or above 94.7% 97.3% 89.5%
.500 or above in Conference 96.1% 98.2% 92.1%
Conference Champion 31.0% 38.6% 16.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round30.0% 32.3% 25.5%
Second Round2.8% 3.3% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Away) - 65.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 45 - 9
Quad 414 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 69   McNeese St. W 80-73 32%     1 - 0 +14.6 +7.3 +7.0
  Nov 08, 2024 286   Long Beach St. W 80-79 88%     2 - 0 -8.8 +1.9 -10.8
  Nov 14, 2024 174   Northern Colorado L 69-78 63%     2 - 1 -9.7 -8.3 -1.3
  Nov 20, 2024 274   Southern Miss W 101-76 87%     3 - 1 +15.8 +6.6 +4.8
  Nov 24, 2024 145   Duquesne W 71-60 58%     4 - 1 +11.8 +4.2 +8.4
  Nov 25, 2024 57   Boise St. L 82-83 27%     4 - 2 +8.3 +13.8 -5.5
  Nov 26, 2024 215   Missouri St. W 75-55 72%     5 - 2 +16.9 +6.5 +11.7
  Dec 04, 2024 187   @ Montana L 67-71 54%     5 - 3 -2.2 -8.9 +6.9
  Dec 07, 2024 259   Eastern Washington W 74-53 86%     6 - 3 +12.4 -2.0 +15.1
  Dec 11, 2024 61   @ Nevada L 63-77 20%     6 - 4 -2.4 +6.3 -11.1
  Dec 13, 2024 77   @ Colorado L 70-81 25%     6 - 5 -1.0 +9.3 -11.2
  Dec 29, 2024 7   @ Alabama L 82-105 4%     6 - 6 -0.3 +10.3 -8.7
  Jan 02, 2025 335   Denver W 91-70 93%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +7.3 +1.7 +3.9
  Jan 08, 2025 124   @ St. Thomas L 72-73 39%     7 - 7 1 - 1 +4.5 +5.8 -1.4
  Jan 11, 2025 240   @ Nebraska Omaha W 77-73 66%    
  Jan 16, 2025 271   North Dakota W 85-73 87%    
  Jan 18, 2025 312   Oral Roberts W 85-71 91%    
  Jan 23, 2025 221   @ UMKC W 72-69 62%    
  Jan 25, 2025 250   South Dakota W 89-78 84%    
  Jan 30, 2025 134   @ North Dakota St. L 77-79 43%    
  Feb 01, 2025 271   @ North Dakota W 82-76 70%    
  Feb 06, 2025 124   St. Thomas W 79-76 62%    
  Feb 13, 2025 240   Nebraska Omaha W 80-70 83%    
  Feb 15, 2025 250   @ South Dakota W 86-81 68%    
  Feb 19, 2025 134   North Dakota St. W 80-76 64%    
  Feb 23, 2025 221   UMKC W 75-66 80%    
  Feb 27, 2025 312   @ Oral Roberts W 82-74 78%    
  Mar 01, 2025 335   @ Denver W 81-71 83%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.2 7.9 11.0 7.6 2.2 31.0 1st
2nd 0.5 4.6 12.2 11.9 5.0 0.9 35.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.6 7.7 4.8 0.7 17.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 4.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.4 0.1 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 4.9 9.6 14.8 19.5 20.4 16.0 8.5 2.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 2.2    2.1 0.1
14-2 89.4% 7.6    6.0 1.6
13-3 68.5% 11.0    6.5 4.2 0.3
12-4 38.7% 7.9    2.9 3.9 1.1 0.1
11-5 11.0% 2.2    0.3 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
10-6 1.3% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 31.0% 31.0 17.7 10.9 2.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 2.2% 47.2% 47.2% 11.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 1.2
14-2 8.5% 45.0% 45.0% 12.5 0.1 1.9 1.6 0.2 4.7
13-3 16.0% 37.9% 37.9% 12.9 1.5 3.5 1.1 0.0 9.9
12-4 20.4% 34.9% 34.9% 13.3 0.7 3.7 2.5 0.2 13.3
11-5 19.5% 28.8% 28.8% 13.7 0.2 2.1 2.8 0.5 0.0 13.9
10-6 14.8% 22.1% 22.1% 14.0 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.9 0.0 11.6
9-7 9.6% 18.5% 18.5% 14.4 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.1 7.9
8-8 4.9% 13.5% 13.5% 14.9 0.1 0.5 0.0 4.3
7-9 2.6% 16.1% 16.1% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.2
6-10 1.0% 13.3% 13.3% 16.0 0.1 0.9
5-11 0.2% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 30.0% 30.0% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.5 5.0 11.8 9.1 3.1 0.5 70.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 11.7 1.0 35.5 59.9 3.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%