St. Thomas
Summit League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#126
Expected Predictive Rating+3.1#121
Pace69.0#156
Improvement-1.4#257

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#60
First Shot+8.7#18
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#341
Layup/Dunks+3.0#76
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.0#6
Freethrows+1.1#108
Improvement+1.9#90

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#278
First Shot-2.9#264
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#236
Layups/Dunks+1.2#126
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#214
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#263
Freethrows-2.3#325
Improvement-3.3#329
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.2% 25.0% 21.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 69.8% 81.2% 27.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round24.2% 25.0% 21.0%
Second Round1.7% 1.9% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Away) - 78.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 42 - 4
Quad 34 - 45 - 8
Quad 416 - 121 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 337   @ Green Bay W 90-76 84%     1 - 0 +5.1 +10.0 -5.3
  Nov 10, 2024 92   @ Oklahoma St. L 71-80 27%     1 - 1 -0.9 -2.1 +1.9
  Nov 17, 2024 65   @ Arizona St. L 66-81 19%     1 - 2 -4.1 +0.7 -5.1
  Nov 22, 2024 142   Wofford L 73-81 53%     1 - 3 -6.9 +0.8 -8.0
  Nov 23, 2024 201   Portland St. W 91-65 65%     2 - 3 +23.8 +17.7 +5.7
  Nov 24, 2024 130   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 65-69 40%     2 - 4 +0.3 -5.6 +5.8
  Dec 02, 2024 360   Chicago St. W 98-76 96%     3 - 4 +3.7 +6.8 -5.7
  Dec 04, 2024 151   @ Northern Colorado W 87-75 45%     4 - 4 +15.2 +19.0 -3.1
  Dec 07, 2024 182   Montana W 88-81 70%     5 - 4 +3.3 +9.6 -6.4
  Dec 13, 2024 302   Western Michigan W 77-71 87%     6 - 4 -4.4 +4.6 -8.6
  Dec 21, 2024 301   @ Bowling Green W 93-68 75%     7 - 4 +19.7 +7.4 +9.5
  Dec 29, 2024 149   @ UC Riverside L 79-81 OT 44%     7 - 5 +1.2 -1.5 +3.0
  Jan 02, 2025 136   @ North Dakota St. W 89-85 42%     8 - 5 1 - 0 +7.9 +19.2 -11.1
  Jan 04, 2025 278   @ North Dakota W 88-80 71%     9 - 5 2 - 0 +4.1 +6.3 -2.5
  Jan 08, 2025 111   South Dakota St. W 73-72 54%     10 - 5 3 - 0 +1.7 +5.9 -4.1
  Jan 11, 2025 243   South Dakota W 119-104 80%     11 - 5 4 - 0 +8.0 +27.6 -21.0
  Jan 18, 2025 315   Denver W 74-62 89%     12 - 5 5 - 0 +0.3 +1.6 -0.4
  Jan 23, 2025 187   @ Nebraska Omaha L 78-89 53%     12 - 6 5 - 1 -10.0 +0.7 -10.5
  Jan 25, 2025 245   @ UMKC W 68-65 65%     13 - 6 6 - 1 +0.8 +2.4 -1.3
  Jan 29, 2025 322   Oral Roberts W 86-71 90%     14 - 6 7 - 1 +3.0 +13.9 -9.3
  Feb 02, 2025 136   North Dakota St. W 79-62 62%     15 - 6 8 - 1 +15.8 +9.6 +8.1
  Feb 06, 2025 111   @ South Dakota St. L 86-102 35%     15 - 7 8 - 2 -10.2 +7.9 -16.8
  Feb 08, 2025 315   @ Denver W 79-76 79%     16 - 7 9 - 2 -3.6 +10.8 -14.1
  Feb 15, 2025 187   Nebraska Omaha W 95-84 72%     17 - 7 10 - 2 +6.9 +17.2 -10.3
  Feb 19, 2025 243   @ South Dakota L 80-85 64%     17 - 8 10 - 3 -6.9 +4.0 -11.0
  Feb 22, 2025 322   @ Oral Roberts W 85-76 79%    
  Feb 27, 2025 278   North Dakota W 88-77 86%    
  Mar 01, 2025 245   UMKC W 77-68 82%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 13.4 56.1 69.8 1st
2nd 0.0 3.8 21.6 25.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 4.1 4.5 3rd
4th 0.3 0.3 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.7 8.2 35.0 56.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 56.1    22.0 34.2
12-4 38.2% 13.4    0.6 6.1 6.7
11-5 2.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
10-6 0.0%
9-7
8-8
Total 69.8% 69.8 22.6 40.3 6.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 56.1% 26.2% 26.2% 13.0 0.0 3.1 8.7 2.9 0.0 41.4
12-4 35.0% 21.9% 21.9% 13.6 0.3 3.2 3.6 0.5 27.4
11-5 8.2% 20.7% 20.7% 14.1 0.3 1.0 0.4 6.5
10-6 0.7% 10.6% 10.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 24.2% 24.2% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 3.4 12.2 7.6 1.0 75.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.7% 100.0% 13.0 0.1 21.1 59.0 19.6 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 9.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 21.4%
Lose Out 0.3%