Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#227
Expected Predictive Rating-1.6#199
Pace72.2#88
Improvement+2.0#91

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#270
First Shot-5.1#317
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#93
Layup/Dunks+2.8#85
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#271
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#307
Freethrows-2.2#307
Improvement-3.5#337

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#181
First Shot+0.5#163
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#240
Layups/Dunks-0.6#192
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#237
Freethrows+0.2#178
Improvement+5.5#4
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.6% 10.8% 7.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 62.7% 72.2% 45.8%
.500 or above in Conference 70.8% 80.0% 54.2%
Conference Champion 6.9% 9.2% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.6% 3.1%
First Four1.8% 1.6% 2.2%
First Round8.7% 9.9% 6.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Home) - 64.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 34 - 64 - 9
Quad 412 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 85   @ Washington St. L 92-100 11%     0 - 1 +1.5 +12.1 -9.5
  Nov 12, 2024 290   @ San Diego W 85-76 54%     1 - 1 +4.3 -3.8 +6.4
  Nov 22, 2024 161   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-91 26%     1 - 2 -14.0 +2.5 -16.4
  Nov 23, 2024 125   St. Thomas L 65-91 28%     1 - 3 -23.6 -11.1 -12.0
  Nov 24, 2024 130   Wofford W 79-74 29%     2 - 3 +6.9 +7.7 -0.6
  Nov 30, 2024 284   Utah Tech W 71-68 72%     3 - 3 -6.9 -3.9 -2.8
  Dec 04, 2024 150   @ Seattle L 74-91 24%     3 - 4 -13.3 +6.6 -20.4
  Dec 07, 2024 340   Denver L 67-68 84%     3 - 5 -15.3 -5.4 -10.0
  Dec 18, 2024 302   @ Pacific W 81-75 55%     4 - 5 +0.9 -0.2 +0.7
  Dec 21, 2024 234   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 59-58 41%     5 - 5 -0.3 -14.3 +13.9
  Jan 04, 2025 337   @ Sacramento St. L 53-56 68%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -11.7 -12.1 +0.0
  Jan 09, 2025 257   Eastern Washington W 64-59 66%     6 - 6 1 - 1 -3.1 -15.1 +11.9
  Jan 11, 2025 246   Idaho W 75-63 64%     7 - 6 2 - 1 +4.5 +0.6 +4.7
  Jan 16, 2025 166   @ Northern Colorado L 69-72 27%     7 - 7 2 - 2 -0.4 -3.1 +2.5
  Jan 18, 2025 264   @ Northern Arizona W 80-69 47%     8 - 7 3 - 2 +7.9 +9.8 -1.2
  Jan 23, 2025 237   Weber St. W 73-70 64%    
  Jan 25, 2025 217   Idaho St. W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 30, 2025 226   @ Montana L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 180   @ Montana St. L 68-74 29%    
  Feb 06, 2025 246   @ Idaho L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 08, 2025 257   @ Eastern Washington L 74-75 45%    
  Feb 13, 2025 264   Northern Arizona W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 15, 2025 166   Northern Colorado L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 20, 2025 217   @ Idaho St. L 67-70 37%    
  Feb 22, 2025 237   @ Weber St. L 71-73 41%    
  Feb 27, 2025 180   Montana St. L 71-72 51%    
  Mar 01, 2025 226   Montana W 75-72 60%    
  Mar 03, 2025 337   Sacramento St. W 70-60 84%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 1.6 2.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 6.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.6 6.6 3.4 0.7 0.1 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.4 5.6 6.6 2.3 0.2 15.0 3rd
4th 0.1 4.5 8.4 2.2 0.1 15.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 7.8 3.1 0.1 13.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 5.9 4.7 0.3 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 4.0 4.6 0.6 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.6 0.9 7.0 8th
9th 0.2 1.1 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.6 4.4 9.2 13.5 17.9 18.2 14.9 10.5 6.2 2.3 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 90.4% 0.5    0.4 0.1
14-4 70.5% 1.7    1.1 0.5 0.0
13-5 43.3% 2.7    1.1 1.3 0.3 0.0
12-6 14.9% 1.6    0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1
11-7 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.9% 6.9 3.2 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 36.5% 36.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
14-4 2.3% 22.6% 22.6% 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.8
13-5 6.2% 17.9% 17.9% 14.9 0.2 0.7 0.2 5.1
12-6 10.5% 16.1% 16.1% 15.1 0.2 1.1 0.4 8.8
11-7 14.9% 13.0% 13.0% 15.5 0.0 0.9 1.0 13.0
10-8 18.2% 10.9% 10.9% 15.6 0.0 0.7 1.3 16.2
9-9 17.9% 6.1% 6.1% 15.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 16.8
8-10 13.5% 4.4% 4.4% 15.9 0.1 0.5 12.9
7-11 9.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.2 9.0
6-12 4.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 4.3
5-13 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.4% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.0 4.6 90.4 0.0%