Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#260
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#217
Pace72.6#82
Improvement-1.7#288

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#216
First Shot-4.5#309
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#35
Layup/Dunks+2.0#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#259
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#295
Freethrows-1.5#268
Improvement-1.5#301

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#292
First Shot-2.9#277
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#259
Layups/Dunks-1.7#234
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#57
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#278
Freethrows-0.5#221
Improvement-0.1#189
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 7.1% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 33.1% 49.5% 25.1%
.500 or above in Conference 47.5% 56.6% 43.1%
Conference Champion 5.3% 7.5% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 11.4% 8.2% 12.9%
First Four1.7% 1.6% 1.8%
First Round4.6% 6.3% 3.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Away) - 32.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 73 - 9
Quad 411 - 713 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 77   @ Washington St. L 92-100 8%     0 - 1 +2.1 +12.6 -9.5
  Nov 12, 2024 319   @ San Diego W 85-76 52%     1 - 1 +3.2 -3.8 +5.3
  Nov 22, 2024 137   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-91 18%     1 - 2 -12.8 +1.1 -13.8
  Nov 23, 2024 142   St. Thomas L 65-91 28%     1 - 3 -25.2 -10.7 -14.1
  Nov 24, 2024 155   Wofford W 79-74 30%     2 - 3 +5.0 +7.1 -2.0
  Nov 30, 2024 287   Utah Tech W 71-68 67%     3 - 3 -6.8 -4.5 -2.2
  Dec 04, 2024 170   @ Seattle L 74-91 23%     3 - 4 -14.6 +4.5 -19.8
  Dec 07, 2024 318   Denver L 67-68 73%     3 - 5 -12.8 -4.1 -8.9
  Dec 18, 2024 277   @ Pacific W 81-75 42%     4 - 5 +2.7 +3.6 -1.3
  Dec 21, 2024 229   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 70-75 33%    
  Jan 04, 2025 335   @ Sacramento St. W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 09, 2025 254   Eastern Washington W 81-78 60%    
  Jan 11, 2025 279   Idaho W 77-73 65%    
  Jan 16, 2025 197   @ Northern Colorado L 76-83 27%    
  Jan 18, 2025 285   @ Northern Arizona L 76-78 44%    
  Jan 23, 2025 208   Weber St. L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 25, 2025 251   Idaho St. W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 30, 2025 215   @ Montana L 75-81 29%    
  Feb 01, 2025 141   @ Montana St. L 71-80 20%    
  Feb 06, 2025 279   @ Idaho L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 08, 2025 254   @ Eastern Washington L 78-81 38%    
  Feb 13, 2025 285   Northern Arizona W 79-75 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 197   Northern Colorado L 79-80 47%    
  Feb 20, 2025 251   @ Idaho St. L 68-71 38%    
  Feb 22, 2025 208   @ Weber St. L 71-77 29%    
  Feb 27, 2025 141   Montana St. L 74-77 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 215   Montana W 78-77 50%    
  Mar 03, 2025 335   Sacramento St. W 73-65 76%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 5.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.1 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.3 2.2 0.3 0.0 10.0 3rd
4th 0.2 3.0 5.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.2 2.7 6.0 2.7 0.3 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 6.4 3.6 0.4 0.0 13.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.8 3.8 0.4 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.9 3.6 0.7 0.0 11.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.8 2.7 0.6 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.7 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.5 4.6 7.4 10.2 12.7 13.8 13.4 11.5 9.1 6.5 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 98.6% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 92.9% 0.8    0.7 0.1
14-4 70.0% 1.4    0.9 0.4 0.1
13-5 41.1% 1.5    0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 14.8% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.3% 5.3 2.7 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 23.3% 23.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 19.0% 19.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.9% 26.1% 26.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7
14-4 2.0% 20.8% 20.8% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.6
13-5 3.8% 19.0% 19.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 3.0
12-6 6.5% 12.1% 12.1% 15.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 5.7
11-7 9.1% 9.7% 9.7% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 8.2
10-8 11.5% 7.0% 7.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 10.7
9-9 13.4% 5.5% 5.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 12.7
8-10 13.8% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.4 13.4
7-11 12.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 12.5
6-12 10.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 10.1
5-13 7.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 7.3
4-14 4.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.6
3-15 2.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.5
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.0 94.5 0.0%