Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#201
Expected Predictive Rating-1.8#190
Pace71.1#97
Improvement+3.7#41

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#265
First Shot-4.9#310
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#89
Layup/Dunks+3.0#75
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#271
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#303
Freethrows-2.1#303
Improvement-1.8#272

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#141
First Shot+1.5#128
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#222
Layups/Dunks-0.1#169
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#35
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#224
Freethrows+0.3#161
Improvement+5.5#4
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 14.2% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.6
.500 or above 93.2% 98.9% 85.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 100.0% 97.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.5% 0.9% 2.3%
First Round12.0% 13.8% 9.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Away) - 58.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 34 - 64 - 9
Quad 413 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 107   @ Washington St. L 92-100 21%     0 - 1 -1.9 +9.1 -9.9
  Nov 12, 2024 314   @ San Diego W 85-76 66%     1 - 1 +2.4 -6.1 +6.8
  Nov 22, 2024 130   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-91 27%     1 - 2 -12.7 +2.2 -14.8
  Nov 23, 2024 126   St. Thomas L 65-91 35%     1 - 3 -24.2 -12.5 -11.3
  Nov 24, 2024 142   Wofford W 79-74 38%     2 - 3 +6.1 +8.0 -1.8
  Nov 30, 2024 290   Utah Tech W 71-68 76%     3 - 3 -6.6 -5.1 -1.4
  Dec 04, 2024 165   @ Seattle L 74-91 33%     3 - 4 -14.7 +6.3 -21.6
  Dec 07, 2024 315   Denver L 67-68 82%     3 - 5 -12.7 -2.2 -10.6
  Dec 18, 2024 277   @ Pacific W 81-75 57%     4 - 5 +2.1 +1.5 +0.2
  Dec 21, 2024 240   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 59-58 49%     5 - 5 -0.8 -15.4 +14.6
  Jan 04, 2025 332   @ Sacramento St. L 53-56 72%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -11.2 -13.6 +1.9
  Jan 09, 2025 265   Eastern Washington W 64-59 71%     6 - 6 1 - 1 -3.0 -14.1 +11.0
  Jan 11, 2025 253   Idaho W 75-63 70%     7 - 6 2 - 1 +4.3 -0.4 +5.4
  Jan 16, 2025 151   @ Northern Colorado L 69-72 30%     7 - 7 2 - 2 +0.2 -2.3 +2.4
  Jan 18, 2025 264   @ Northern Arizona W 80-69 53%     8 - 7 3 - 2 +8.1 +10.2 -1.5
  Jan 23, 2025 297   Weber St. W 74-56 78%     9 - 7 4 - 2 +7.9 +1.2 +8.1
  Jan 25, 2025 229   Idaho St. W 76-59 65%     10 - 7 5 - 2 +10.8 +1.1 +10.1
  Jan 30, 2025 182   @ Montana L 78-92 37%     10 - 8 5 - 3 -12.6 +8.0 -21.5
  Feb 01, 2025 188   @ Montana St. L 73-74 38%     10 - 9 5 - 4 +0.0 +5.4 -5.5
  Feb 06, 2025 253   @ Idaho W 76-69 52%     11 - 9 6 - 4 +4.3 -4.0 +8.1
  Feb 08, 2025 265   @ Eastern Washington L 67-72 53%     11 - 10 6 - 5 -7.9 -4.2 -4.0
  Feb 13, 2025 264   Northern Arizona W 58-46 71%     12 - 10 7 - 5 +4.0 -10.7 +16.4
  Feb 15, 2025 151   Northern Colorado W 82-71 49%     13 - 10 8 - 5 +9.1 +0.9 +7.5
  Feb 20, 2025 229   @ Idaho St. L 74-82 46%     13 - 11 8 - 6 -9.1 -0.5 -8.5
  Feb 22, 2025 297   @ Weber St. W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 27, 2025 188   Montana St. W 71-69 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 182   Montana W 75-73 57%    
  Mar 03, 2025 332   Sacramento St. W 73-62 87%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 1.4 1.4 2nd
3rd 1.3 21.3 37.5 17.3 77.4 3rd
4th 0.0 5.1 9.2 14.2 4th
5th 0.5 4.6 0.9 5.9 5th
6th 0.6 0.4 1.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 1.2 11.3 31.3 37.5 18.7 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 18.7% 17.6% 17.6% 14.6 0.1 1.3 1.9 0.0 15.4
11-7 37.5% 13.3% 13.3% 15.4 0.2 2.8 2.0 32.5
10-8 31.3% 10.6% 10.6% 15.6 1.2 2.1 28.0
9-9 11.3% 9.0% 9.0% 15.9 0.2 0.9 10.3
8-10 1.2% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 15.3 0.1 1.5 6.0 5.1 87.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.3% 100.0% 14.6 3.3 39.2 56.2 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.2%
Lose Out 0.6%