Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#218
Expected Predictive Rating+2.9#143
Pace84.7#3
Improvement-0.3#212

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#227
First Shot-2.3#247
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#161
Layup/Dunks+1.4#126
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#148
Freethrows-2.3#300
Improvement-1.1#328

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#198
First Shot-2.2#249
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#102
Layups/Dunks-0.8#197
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#45
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#222
Freethrows-2.7#316
Improvement+0.8#79
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.2% 15.1% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 55.3% 71.0% 45.9%
.500 or above in Conference 62.5% 71.8% 56.9%
Conference Champion 13.4% 18.4% 10.4%
Last Place in Conference 8.3% 5.1% 10.1%
First Four1.2% 0.9% 1.4%
First Round10.6% 14.7% 8.2%
Second Round0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Away) - 37.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 63 - 8
Quad 412 - 615 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 80   @ Washington St. L 92-100 12%     0 - 1 +2.1 +12.0 -8.8
  Nov 12, 2024 298   @ San Diego W 85-76 55%     1 - 1 +4.7 -4.2 +7.3
  Nov 22, 2024 210   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 82-85 37%    
  Nov 23, 2024 163   St. Thomas L 77-80 41%    
  Nov 24, 2024 204   Wofford L 76-77 47%    
  Nov 30, 2024 304   Utah Tech W 85-77 76%    
  Dec 04, 2024 136   @ Seattle L 74-82 25%    
  Dec 07, 2024 295   Denver W 86-79 74%    
  Dec 18, 2024 291   @ Pacific W 79-78 54%    
  Dec 21, 2024 239   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 04, 2025 307   @ Sacramento St. W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 09, 2025 245   Eastern Washington W 87-83 65%    
  Jan 11, 2025 287   Idaho W 82-75 71%    
  Jan 16, 2025 173   @ Northern Colorado L 80-85 32%    
  Jan 18, 2025 277   @ Northern Arizona W 77-76 50%    
  Jan 23, 2025 225   Weber St. W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 236   Idaho St. W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 30, 2025 211   @ Montana L 77-80 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 155   @ Montana St. L 78-84 30%    
  Feb 06, 2025 287   @ Idaho W 79-78 52%    
  Feb 08, 2025 245   @ Eastern Washington L 84-86 44%    
  Feb 13, 2025 277   Northern Arizona W 80-74 69%    
  Feb 15, 2025 173   Northern Colorado W 83-82 53%    
  Feb 20, 2025 236   @ Idaho St. L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 225   @ Weber St. L 74-77 41%    
  Feb 27, 2025 155   Montana St. L 80-81 49%    
  Mar 01, 2025 211   Montana W 80-77 59%    
  Mar 03, 2025 307   Sacramento St. W 76-68 75%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.0 3.5 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.2 13.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.5 3.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.2 3.2 0.9 0.1 12.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.3 2.8 0.5 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.4 2.8 0.4 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.7 2.9 0.3 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.0 3.0 0.4 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.2 2.5 0.5 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.2 4.9 7.0 8.8 10.6 11.8 11.6 11.2 9.6 7.5 5.1 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 98.8% 1.7    1.6 0.1
15-3 89.9% 2.9    2.4 0.5 0.0
14-4 69.5% 3.5    2.3 1.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 39.5% 3.0    1.2 1.4 0.4 0.0
12-6 13.5% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.4% 13.4 8.5 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 54.4% 54.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.6% 48.6% 48.6% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.7% 46.1% 46.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9
15-3 3.2% 34.1% 34.1% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1
14-4 5.1% 29.2% 29.2% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 3.6
13-5 7.5% 24.1% 24.1% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 5.7
12-6 9.6% 18.3% 18.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 7.8
11-7 11.2% 12.6% 12.6% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 9.8
10-8 11.6% 9.1% 9.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 10.5
9-9 11.8% 6.3% 6.3% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 11.0
8-10 10.6% 3.2% 3.2% 15.9 0.1 0.3 10.3
7-11 8.8% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.6
6-12 7.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.9
5-13 4.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.9
4-14 3.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.1
3-15 1.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.8
2-16 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.9 3.4 2.6 88.8 0.0%