Preseason Rankings
Montana St.
Big Sky
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#149
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.5#109
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#153
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#164
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.8% 35.0% 23.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.0 14.1
.500 or above 73.2% 91.0% 70.8%
.500 or above in Conference 86.0% 94.1% 84.9%
Conference Champion 33.4% 47.7% 31.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.5% 1.8%
First Four2.0% 0.9% 2.1%
First Round23.9% 34.7% 22.4%
Second Round2.9% 6.2% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.7% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Away) - 12.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 44 - 9
Quad 415 - 419 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 44   @ Wisconsin L 65-77 12%    
  Nov 09, 2024 105   @ Wichita St. L 69-76 26%    
  Nov 17, 2024 317   @ Denver W 80-74 72%    
  Nov 19, 2024 60   @ Northwestern L 63-74 16%    
  Nov 24, 2024 236   Southern Miss W 76-69 74%    
  Nov 26, 2024 184   Abilene Christian W 75-70 66%    
  Nov 30, 2024 239   Cal St. Northridge W 81-73 75%    
  Dec 04, 2024 302   @ Nebraska Omaha W 75-70 67%    
  Dec 07, 2024 205   UMKC W 74-68 70%    
  Dec 15, 2024 46   @ USC L 68-80 15%    
  Dec 18, 2024 183   @ UC Riverside L 71-72 45%    
  Dec 22, 2024 53   @ TCU L 69-81 16%    
  Jan 02, 2025 279   @ Idaho W 71-68 62%    
  Jan 04, 2025 262   @ Eastern Washington W 79-76 59%    
  Jan 09, 2025 226   Northern Colorado W 80-73 72%    
  Jan 11, 2025 286   Northern Arizona W 79-69 80%    
  Jan 16, 2025 315   @ Idaho St. W 71-65 69%    
  Jan 18, 2025 179   @ Weber St. L 70-72 45%    
  Jan 20, 2025 262   Eastern Washington W 82-73 77%    
  Jan 25, 2025 190   @ Montana L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 30, 2025 300   Sacramento St. W 73-62 82%    
  Feb 01, 2025 257   Portland St. W 78-69 76%    
  Feb 06, 2025 286   @ Northern Arizona W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 226   @ Northern Colorado W 77-76 54%    
  Feb 13, 2025 179   Weber St. W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 15, 2025 315   Idaho St. W 74-62 84%    
  Feb 22, 2025 190   Montana W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 27, 2025 257   @ Portland St. W 75-72 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 300   @ Sacramento St. W 70-65 65%    
  Mar 03, 2025 279   Idaho W 74-65 78%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.9 7.2 8.5 7.1 4.1 1.4 33.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.3 6.6 4.5 1.6 0.3 20.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.9 4.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.2 3.3 0.9 0.1 10.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.3 2.2 0.5 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.7 5.3 7.3 8.8 10.7 11.9 12.5 12.0 10.1 7.4 4.1 1.4 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
17-1 100.0% 4.1    4.0 0.1
16-2 96.6% 7.1    6.5 0.6
15-3 84.1% 8.5    6.6 1.8 0.1
14-4 60.0% 7.2    4.1 2.6 0.4 0.0
13-5 31.5% 3.9    1.4 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 8.8% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.4% 33.4 24.3 7.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.4% 70.2% 68.6% 1.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 5.0%
17-1 4.1% 62.9% 61.9% 0.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 2.5%
16-2 7.4% 51.2% 51.2% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.6 0.1%
15-3 10.1% 43.2% 43.2% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.6 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.1 5.7 0.0%
14-4 12.0% 32.8% 32.8% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.1 0.2 8.0
13-5 12.5% 26.0% 26.0% 14.5 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.5 9.2
12-6 11.9% 19.3% 19.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 9.6
11-7 10.7% 15.1% 15.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 9.1
10-8 8.8% 11.7% 11.7% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 7.8
9-9 7.3% 8.5% 8.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 6.7
8-10 5.3% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 5.0
7-11 3.7% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 3.6
6-12 2.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.3
5-13 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 24.8% 24.8% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.1 5.4 6.2 5.2 4.0 75.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.0 44.0 16.0 40.0