Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#188
Expected Predictive Rating-3.8#227
Pace66.4#227
Improvement-2.3#288

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#213
First Shot+2.4#111
After Offensive Rebound-3.8#348
Layup/Dunks-2.2#264
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#102
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#27
Freethrows-2.8#325
Improvement-2.9#309

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#179
First Shot+0.4#173
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#227
Layups/Dunks-2.2#269
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#97
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#39
Freethrows-2.2#320
Improvement+0.6#152
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 16.4% 12.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 15.3% 23.1% 3.4%
.500 or above in Conference 84.0% 95.4% 66.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.2% 3.6% 7.7%
First Round12.7% 15.0% 9.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Home) - 60.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 32 - 82 - 13
Quad 412 - 414 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 7   @ Wisconsin L 67-79 3%     0 - 1 +9.3 +6.5 +1.9
  Nov 09, 2024 115   @ Wichita St. L 69-89 25%     0 - 2 -14.6 +0.3 -15.2
  Nov 17, 2024 315   @ Denver L 78-79 69%     0 - 3 -7.6 -4.1 -3.5
  Nov 19, 2024 58   @ Northwestern L 69-72 10%     0 - 4 +9.8 +9.0 +0.6
  Nov 24, 2024 280   Southern Miss W 79-59 76%     1 - 4 +10.9 +1.1 +9.0
  Nov 26, 2024 211   Abilene Christian W 85-59 64%     2 - 4 +20.8 +20.8 +2.2
  Nov 30, 2024 114   Cal St. Northridge L 69-72 OT 43%     2 - 5 -2.7 -7.2 +4.7
  Dec 04, 2024 187   @ Nebraska Omaha W 76-65 40%     3 - 5 +12.0 +6.9 +6.0
  Dec 07, 2024 245   UMKC W 74-62 71%     4 - 5 +4.7 +8.3 -2.2
  Dec 15, 2024 59   @ USC L 63-89 10%     4 - 6 -13.3 -9.3 -2.1
  Dec 18, 2024 149   @ UC Riverside L 80-83 32%     4 - 7 +0.2 +12.0 -12.0
  Dec 22, 2024 64   @ TCU L 48-82 12%     4 - 8 -23.1 -15.5 -8.1
  Jan 02, 2025 253   @ Idaho L 64-69 54%     4 - 9 0 - 1 -7.7 -13.6 +5.9
  Jan 04, 2025 265   @ Eastern Washington L 63-68 55%     4 - 10 0 - 2 -7.9 -10.0 +2.0
  Jan 09, 2025 151   Northern Colorado L 82-83 51%     4 - 11 0 - 3 -2.9 +9.3 -12.3
  Jan 11, 2025 264   Northern Arizona W 58-53 73%     5 - 11 1 - 3 -3.0 -20.3 +17.2
  Jan 16, 2025 229   @ Idaho St. L 67-70 48%     5 - 12 1 - 4 -4.1 +4.6 -9.2
  Jan 18, 2025 297   @ Weber St. W 80-71 63%     6 - 12 2 - 4 +3.9 +6.7 -2.4
  Jan 20, 2025 265   Eastern Washington W 74-64 73%     7 - 12 3 - 4 +2.0 +6.1 -2.9
  Jan 25, 2025 182   @ Montana L 70-77 39%     7 - 13 3 - 5 -5.6 +2.8 -9.2
  Jan 30, 2025 332   Sacramento St. W 70-58 86%     8 - 13 4 - 5 -1.3 -4.0 +3.4
  Feb 01, 2025 201   Portland St. W 74-73 62%     9 - 13 5 - 5 -3.7 +5.1 -8.8
  Feb 06, 2025 264   @ Northern Arizona L 64-69 55%     9 - 14 5 - 6 -7.9 -2.8 -5.8
  Feb 08, 2025 151   @ Northern Colorado L 66-73 32%     9 - 15 5 - 7 -3.8 -3.5 -0.8
  Feb 13, 2025 297   Weber St. W 74-66 79%     10 - 15 6 - 7 -2.1 -3.7 +1.7
  Feb 15, 2025 229   Idaho St. W 74-69 67%     11 - 15 7 - 7 -1.2 -1.2 +0.1
  Feb 22, 2025 182   Montana W 74-72 60%    
  Feb 27, 2025 201   @ Portland St. L 69-71 41%    
  Mar 01, 2025 332   @ Sacramento St. W 70-63 71%    
  Mar 03, 2025 253   Idaho W 76-70 73%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 1.1 15.2 13.9 30.2 3rd
4th 0.2 11.8 18.8 30.7 4th
5th 3.3 17.9 2.7 23.9 5th
6th 0.4 7.8 2.8 11.0 6th
7th 1.5 2.4 0.0 3.9 7th
8th 0.4 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 2.4 13.6 33.6 36.6 13.9 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 13.9% 22.4% 22.4% 14.8 0.0 0.7 2.3 0.1 10.8
10-8 36.6% 16.7% 16.7% 15.5 2.9 3.2 30.5
9-9 33.6% 12.6% 12.6% 16.0 0.1 4.1 29.3
8-10 13.6% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 1.1 12.5
7-11 2.4% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.2 2.2
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.7 5.3 8.7 85.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.1% 100.0% 14.8 1.3 21.3 73.9 3.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.0%
Lose Out 0.8%