Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#141
Expected Predictive Rating-3.9#235
Pace67.6#217
Improvement-1.0#257

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#126
First Shot+5.5#45
After Offensive Rebound-3.8#348
Layup/Dunks-2.2#267
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#84
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.4#12
Freethrows-2.5#317
Improvement-0.1#178

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#191
First Shot+0.0#172
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#241
Layups/Dunks-3.7#311
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#171
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#34
Freethrows-0.8#243
Improvement-1.0#256
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.4% 34.1% 28.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 13.9 14.6
.500 or above 78.3% 89.9% 75.2%
.500 or above in Conference 93.8% 95.8% 93.2%
Conference Champion 44.1% 52.5% 41.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four2.2% 0.8% 2.5%
First Round28.6% 33.8% 27.2%
Second Round1.9% 3.1% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TCU (Away) - 21.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 43 - 9
Quad 415 - 518 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 36   @ Wisconsin L 67-79 10%     0 - 1 +3.3 +4.0 -1.6
  Nov 09, 2024 110   @ Wichita St. L 69-89 29%     0 - 2 -13.3 +0.7 -14.2
  Nov 17, 2024 318   @ Denver L 78-79 74%     0 - 3 -6.8 -5.5 -1.3
  Nov 19, 2024 61   @ Northwestern L 69-72 15%     0 - 4 +9.1 +10.8 -1.9
  Nov 24, 2024 283   Southern Miss W 79-59 84%     1 - 4 +10.3 +0.2 +9.3
  Nov 26, 2024 207   Abilene Christian W 85-59 72%     2 - 4 +20.9 +17.6 +5.5
  Nov 30, 2024 158   Cal St. Northridge L 69-72 OT 65%     2 - 5 -6.1 -8.4 +2.5
  Dec 04, 2024 298   @ Nebraska Omaha W 76-65 69%     3 - 5 +6.8 +7.3 +0.4
  Dec 07, 2024 240   UMKC W 74-62 78%     4 - 5 +4.7 +7.6 -1.5
  Dec 15, 2024 76   @ USC L 63-89 18%     4 - 6 -15.5 -9.1 -4.5
  Dec 18, 2024 171   @ UC Riverside L 80-83 45%     4 - 7 -0.7 +12.3 -13.1
  Dec 22, 2024 88   @ TCU L 66-75 21%    
  Jan 02, 2025 279   @ Idaho W 74-70 66%    
  Jan 04, 2025 254   @ Eastern Washington W 78-75 61%    
  Jan 09, 2025 197   Northern Colorado W 80-75 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 285   Northern Arizona W 80-69 84%    
  Jan 16, 2025 251   @ Idaho St. W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 18, 2025 208   @ Weber St. W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 20, 2025 254   Eastern Washington W 81-72 80%    
  Jan 25, 2025 215   @ Montana W 76-75 52%    
  Jan 30, 2025 335   Sacramento St. W 74-60 90%    
  Feb 01, 2025 260   Portland St. W 80-71 80%    
  Feb 06, 2025 285   @ Northern Arizona W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 197   @ Northern Colorado L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 13, 2025 208   Weber St. W 75-69 71%    
  Feb 15, 2025 251   Idaho St. W 72-63 79%    
  Feb 22, 2025 215   Montana W 78-72 72%    
  Feb 27, 2025 260   @ Portland St. W 77-74 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 335   @ Sacramento St. W 71-63 77%    
  Mar 03, 2025 279   Idaho W 77-67 83%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.8 7.9 11.5 10.6 6.9 3.2 0.8 44.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.2 7.5 6.8 3.2 0.7 0.1 21.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 5.5 3.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.9 2.6 0.5 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.2 3.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.7 8.6 11.9 14.7 15.7 14.8 11.4 7.0 3.2 0.8 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 3.2    3.2 0.0
16-2 99.2% 6.9    6.6 0.3
15-3 93.8% 10.6    9.3 1.3 0.0
14-4 77.8% 11.5    7.9 3.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 50.3% 7.9    3.5 3.4 0.9 0.1
12-6 19.0% 2.8    0.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
11-7 3.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 44.1% 44.1 32.0 9.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 56.8% 56.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
17-1 3.2% 51.9% 51.9% 13.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.5
16-2 7.0% 47.0% 47.0% 13.5 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.2 3.7
15-3 11.4% 43.4% 43.4% 13.9 0.1 1.2 2.6 1.0 0.0 6.4
14-4 14.8% 36.7% 36.7% 14.3 0.0 0.7 2.5 2.1 0.2 9.4
13-5 15.7% 30.0% 30.0% 14.7 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.5 0.5 11.0
12-6 14.7% 25.6% 25.6% 15.1 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.0 10.9
11-7 11.9% 21.2% 21.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.2 9.4
10-8 8.6% 16.8% 16.8% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 7.2
9-9 5.7% 12.8% 12.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 5.0
8-10 3.3% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 0.3 3.0
7-11 1.7% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.1 1.6
6-12 0.8% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.3% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 29.4% 29.4% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.6 8.8 9.7 5.2 70.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.6 2.2 2.2 35.5 52.7 7.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%