UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#175
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#110
Pace67.8#205
Improvement+0.6#158

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#190
First Shot-1.4#216
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#118
Layup/Dunks-3.9#314
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#24
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#183
Freethrows-1.1#252
Improvement+0.5#155

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#183
First Shot-0.2#188
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#190
Layups/Dunks-2.4#278
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#69
Freethrows+1.0#115
Improvement+0.1#178
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 5.1% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.0 13.3
.500 or above 76.2% 88.9% 71.6%
.500 or above in Conference 82.8% 92.7% 79.3%
Conference Champion 0.6% 2.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.2% 5.1% 2.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Irvine (Home) - 26.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 23 - 33 - 7
Quad 35 - 48 - 12
Quad 49 - 317 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 28   @ Oregon L 76-91 7%     0 - 1 +1.1 +10.2 -9.0
  Nov 08, 2024 44   @ BYU L 80-86 9%     0 - 2 +8.2 +8.4 +0.1
  Nov 12, 2024 172   @ California Baptist W 70-69 39%     1 - 2 +3.3 +1.5 +1.8
  Nov 19, 2024 67   @ Santa Clara L 54-96 14%     1 - 3 -30.9 -13.1 -18.9
  Nov 22, 2024 76   @ Colorado St. W 77-75 OT 16%     2 - 3 +12.0 +3.2 +8.6
  Nov 24, 2024 332   Alcorn St. W 69-52 89%     3 - 3 +3.3 -6.9 +10.9
  Nov 30, 2024 246   @ Idaho L 68-80 56%     3 - 4 -14.0 -1.5 -13.9
  Dec 05, 2024 133   @ Cal St. Northridge W 68-64 31%     4 - 4 1 - 0 +8.6 -2.7 +11.2
  Dec 07, 2024 309   Cal St. Fullerton W 75-68 84%     5 - 4 2 - 0 -4.2 -1.4 -2.7
  Dec 18, 2024 180   Montana St. W 83-80 62%     6 - 4 -0.6 +13.4 -13.8
  Dec 21, 2024 99   @ UNLV L 53-66 22%     6 - 5 -5.3 -10.5 +3.7
  Dec 29, 2024 125   St. Thomas W 81-79 OT 49%     7 - 5 +1.7 -3.7 +5.2
  Jan 02, 2025 293   @ Long Beach St. W 76-60 66%     8 - 5 3 - 0 +11.1 +5.6 +6.8
  Jan 04, 2025 60   @ UC Irvine L 57-81 12%     8 - 6 3 - 1 -12.0 -4.2 -8.5
  Jan 09, 2025 181   Hawaii L 76-83 62%     8 - 7 3 - 2 -10.6 -1.4 -9.0
  Jan 16, 2025 165   @ UC Santa Barbara L 63-66 37%     8 - 8 3 - 3 -0.2 -2.7 +2.1
  Jan 18, 2025 79   UC San Diego W 85-81 31%     9 - 8 4 - 3 +8.5 +12.5 -4.1
  Jan 23, 2025 60   UC Irvine L 66-73 27%    
  Jan 25, 2025 234   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 30, 2025 228   UC Davis W 71-65 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 286   Cal Poly W 84-75 82%    
  Feb 06, 2025 79   @ UC San Diego L 65-75 16%    
  Feb 08, 2025 234   Cal St. Bakersfield W 73-67 73%    
  Feb 13, 2025 228   @ UC Davis W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 15, 2025 165   UC Santa Barbara W 70-68 59%    
  Feb 20, 2025 293   Long Beach St. W 75-65 83%    
  Feb 22, 2025 286   @ Cal Poly W 81-77 63%    
  Feb 28, 2025 181   @ Hawaii L 69-71 40%    
  Mar 06, 2025 133   Cal St. Northridge W 77-76 53%    
  Mar 08, 2025 309   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 72-67 67%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 1st
2nd 0.3 1.2 3.1 2.3 0.8 0.0 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 8.2 10.6 5.6 1.2 0.1 27.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.2 8.9 9.4 3.3 0.1 0.0 23.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 6.2 6.4 1.6 0.1 15.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 4.0 5.7 1.5 0.1 11.7 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 3.6 1.2 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.2 1.1 2.2 1.0 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.2 0.4 1.8 4.9 9.9 15.4 18.9 19.5 15.1 8.9 3.7 1.2 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 81.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 25.9% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1
15-5 4.5% 0.2    0.1 0.0
14-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.1
16-4 1.2% 13.8% 13.8% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0
15-5 3.7% 12.8% 12.8% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 3.3
14-6 8.9% 7.2% 7.2% 13.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 8.3
13-7 15.1% 4.6% 4.6% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 14.4
12-8 19.5% 2.8% 2.8% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 18.9
11-9 18.9% 1.8% 1.8% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 18.6
10-10 15.4% 1.0% 1.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 15.3
9-11 9.9% 1.0% 1.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 9.8
8-12 4.9% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 4.9
7-13 1.8% 1.8
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 13.2 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.2 96.9 0.0%