UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#171
Expected Predictive Rating+6.2#93
Pace67.1#228
Improvement-0.5#221

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#172
First Shot-0.2#181
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#169
Layup/Dunks-2.2#266
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#40
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#179
Freethrows-0.9#238
Improvement+0.1#163

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#190
First Shot-0.6#187
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#201
Layups/Dunks-2.3#267
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#189
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#187
Freethrows+1.5#79
Improvement-0.6#236
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 5.9% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.7 13.1
.500 or above 59.6% 76.7% 54.3%
.500 or above in Conference 69.3% 76.4% 67.1%
Conference Champion 3.4% 5.4% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.0% 1.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.9% 5.9% 3.3%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Away) - 23.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 36 - 58 - 12
Quad 49 - 316 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 23   @ Oregon L 76-91 6%     0 - 1 +2.0 +10.3 -8.1
  Nov 08, 2024 40   @ BYU L 80-86 9%     0 - 2 +8.5 +8.1 +0.7
  Nov 12, 2024 176   @ California Baptist W 70-69 39%     1 - 2 +3.1 +0.0 +3.2
  Nov 19, 2024 72   @ Santa Clara L 54-96 15%     1 - 3 -31.4 -12.9 -19.6
  Nov 22, 2024 104   @ Colorado St. W 77-75 OT 22%     2 - 3 +9.4 +1.9 +7.3
  Nov 24, 2024 342   Alcorn St. W 69-52 89%     3 - 3 +2.6 -8.1 +11.5
  Nov 30, 2024 279   @ Idaho L 68-80 61%     3 - 4 -15.6 -1.5 -15.4
  Dec 05, 2024 158   @ Cal St. Northridge W 68-64 36%     4 - 4 1 - 0 +6.9 -3.2 +10.1
  Dec 07, 2024 275   Cal St. Fullerton W 75-68 79%     5 - 4 2 - 0 -2.2 +0.2 -2.4
  Dec 18, 2024 141   Montana St. W 83-80 55%     6 - 4 +0.9 +12.4 -11.4
  Dec 21, 2024 108   @ UNLV L 66-74 24%    
  Dec 29, 2024 142   St. Thomas W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 02, 2025 261   @ Long Beach St. W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 04, 2025 60   @ UC Irvine L 64-77 12%    
  Jan 09, 2025 174   Hawaii W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 16, 2025 138   @ UC Santa Barbara L 69-74 33%    
  Jan 18, 2025 91   UC San Diego L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 23, 2025 60   UC Irvine L 67-74 26%    
  Jan 25, 2025 229   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 30, 2025 185   UC Davis W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 265   Cal Poly W 84-76 77%    
  Feb 06, 2025 91   @ UC San Diego L 65-75 18%    
  Feb 08, 2025 229   Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 13, 2025 185   @ UC Davis L 69-71 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 138   UC Santa Barbara W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 20, 2025 261   Long Beach St. W 74-66 76%    
  Feb 22, 2025 265   @ Cal Poly W 81-79 57%    
  Feb 28, 2025 174   @ Hawaii L 68-71 40%    
  Mar 06, 2025 158   Cal St. Northridge W 77-75 59%    
  Mar 08, 2025 275   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 69-66 58%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.3 2.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 5.7 6.7 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 19.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.3 6.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 17.7 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 6.1 4.9 1.6 0.1 14.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.3 4.2 1.0 0.1 12.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.8 3.4 0.7 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.6 0.7 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.7 0.5 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.1 5.4 8.7 11.7 13.8 14.2 13.9 11.2 7.7 4.7 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 99.3% 0.3    0.2 0.0
17-3 76.9% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 43.0% 1.1    0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 17.9% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 34.3% 31.4% 2.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2%
18-2 0.3% 21.1% 21.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 1.0% 22.1% 22.1% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
16-4 2.5% 18.9% 18.8% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.1 0.1%
15-5 4.7% 13.5% 13.5% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.1
14-6 7.7% 8.9% 8.9% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.0
13-7 11.2% 7.0% 7.0% 13.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 10.4
12-8 13.9% 4.0% 4.0% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 13.4
11-9 14.2% 1.8% 1.8% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.9
10-10 13.8% 1.1% 1.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.6
9-11 11.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.6
8-12 8.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 8.7
7-13 5.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.4
6-14 3.1% 3.1
5-15 1.3% 1.3
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 13.0 0.1 1.2 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 96.1 0.0%