UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#198
Expected Predictive Rating+3.0#142
Pace67.9#227
Improvement-4.1#363

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#177
First Shot+0.0#175
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#181
Layup/Dunks-0.3#194
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#21
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#283
Freethrows-0.3#197
Improvement-2.4#359

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#235
First Shot-1.1#213
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#228
Layups/Dunks-4.1#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#86
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#128
Freethrows-0.3#200
Improvement-1.7#341
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 5.6% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.1 13.7
.500 or above 37.7% 59.0% 33.2%
.500 or above in Conference 52.3% 65.0% 49.5%
Conference Champion 3.0% 4.8% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 7.2% 3.8% 8.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round3.7% 5.6% 3.3%
Second Round0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Away) - 17.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 34 - 65 - 13
Quad 49 - 414 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 40   @ Oregon L 76-91 7%     0 - 1 -0.6 +9.9 -10.4
  Nov 08, 2024 34   @ BYU L 80-86 7%     0 - 2 +8.9 +8.3 +0.9
  Nov 12, 2024 181   @ California Baptist W 70-69 36%     1 - 2 +3.0 -0.1 +3.2
  Nov 19, 2024 99   @ Santa Clara L 54-96 17%     1 - 3 -33.8 -15.0 -19.9
  Nov 22, 2024 102   @ Colorado St. L 65-75 18%    
  Nov 24, 2024 350   Alcorn St. W 77-63 91%    
  Nov 30, 2024 287   @ Idaho W 73-71 56%    
  Dec 05, 2024 194   @ Cal St. Northridge L 75-78 39%    
  Dec 07, 2024 270   Cal St. Fullerton W 73-66 73%    
  Dec 18, 2024 155   Montana St. W 74-73 54%    
  Dec 21, 2024 97   @ UNLV L 67-77 18%    
  Dec 29, 2024 163   St. Thomas W 73-71 55%    
  Jan 02, 2025 259   @ Long Beach St. W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 04, 2025 57   @ UC Irvine L 64-78 11%    
  Jan 09, 2025 174   Hawaii W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 16, 2025 119   @ UC Santa Barbara L 69-77 24%    
  Jan 18, 2025 158   UC San Diego W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 23, 2025 57   UC Irvine L 67-75 25%    
  Jan 25, 2025 239   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 30, 2025 169   UC Davis W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 01, 2025 294   Cal Poly W 79-71 76%    
  Feb 06, 2025 158   @ UC San Diego L 68-73 34%    
  Feb 08, 2025 239   Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 13, 2025 169   @ UC Davis L 72-76 36%    
  Feb 15, 2025 119   UC Santa Barbara L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 20, 2025 259   Long Beach St. W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 294   @ Cal Poly W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 28, 2025 174   @ Hawaii L 68-72 37%    
  Mar 06, 2025 194   Cal St. Northridge W 78-75 59%    
  Mar 08, 2025 270   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 70-69 53%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.8 2.6 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 3.4 3.9 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 11.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.2 4.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.9 4.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.8 4.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 12.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.4 4.1 0.9 0.1 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.0 3.4 0.9 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.2 2.8 0.7 0.0 8.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.5 1.8 0.5 0.0 6.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.7 4.8 6.8 8.9 10.4 11.7 11.7 10.9 9.8 7.7 5.3 3.5 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 93.4% 0.3    0.2 0.1
17-3 69.8% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 43.5% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.1
15-5 20.1% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 46.9% 46.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.3% 34.7% 34.7% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-3 0.9% 26.5% 26.5% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
16-4 2.0% 23.0% 23.0% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6
15-5 3.5% 15.7% 15.7% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.0
14-6 5.3% 11.8% 11.8% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.7
13-7 7.7% 7.2% 7.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.1
12-8 9.8% 4.7% 4.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.4
11-9 10.9% 2.7% 2.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 10.6
10-10 11.7% 1.8% 1.8% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.5
9-11 11.7% 0.9% 0.9% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.6
8-12 10.4% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 10.4
7-13 8.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.9
6-14 6.8% 6.8
5-15 4.8% 4.8
4-16 2.7% 2.7
3-17 1.5% 1.5
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.2 96.3 0.0%