California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#158
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#181
Pace65.9#240
Improvement-0.1#194

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#172
First Shot+0.1#170
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#187
Layup/Dunks+5.3#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#263
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#307
Freethrows+0.5#148
Improvement-3.8#335

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#174
First Shot+1.1#140
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#278
Layups/Dunks-1.7#246
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#237
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#157
Freethrows+2.4#41
Improvement+3.7#30
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 12.8% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.0 14.7
.500 or above 81.3% 96.2% 77.4%
.500 or above in Conference 89.1% 99.0% 86.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round8.8% 12.8% 7.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Away) - 20.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 34 - 64 - 12
Quad 413 - 317 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 281   Incarnate Word W 83-78 81%     1 - 0 -4.2 +7.3 -11.3
  Nov 09, 2024 131   Kennesaw St. W 88-84 54%     2 - 0 +3.1 +10.9 -8.0
  Nov 12, 2024 149   UC Riverside L 69-70 58%     2 - 1 -2.9 -2.2 -0.7
  Nov 15, 2024 323   LIU Brooklyn W 90-77 87%     3 - 1 +1.0 +19.9 -18.4
  Nov 20, 2024 151   Northern Colorado L 68-79 58%     3 - 2 -12.9 -10.8 -1.7
  Nov 23, 2024 265   Eastern Washington W 79-68 78%     4 - 2 +3.0 +6.1 -2.5
  Nov 26, 2024 37   SMU L 77-79 13%     4 - 3 +10.6 +15.4 -5.0
  Nov 27, 2024 254   Fresno St. W 86-81 2OT 70%     5 - 3 -0.2 -3.8 +2.6
  Dec 01, 2024 81   @ Central Florida L 59-74 19%     5 - 4 -5.4 -10.6 +5.1
  Dec 11, 2024 51   @ San Diego St. L 75-81 12%     5 - 5 +7.2 +23.5 -17.0
  Dec 16, 2024 122   @ Middle Tennessee L 64-75 33%     5 - 6 -6.2 -7.1 +1.0
  Dec 21, 2024 254   @ Fresno St. W 86-69 61%     6 - 6 +14.3 +17.3 -2.2
  Dec 28, 2024 271   Jackson St. W 79-73 79%     7 - 6 -2.3 -4.4 +1.5
  Dec 30, 2024 85   UC Irvine L 63-71 35%     7 - 7 -3.8 -1.2 -3.0
  Jan 04, 2025 165   Seattle W 61-59 61%     8 - 7 1 - 0 -0.8 -7.1 +6.5
  Jan 11, 2025 125   @ Utah Valley L 69-75 34%     8 - 8 1 - 1 -1.4 -1.3 +0.0
  Jan 16, 2025 273   @ Tarleton St. L 57-67 65%     8 - 9 1 - 2 -13.8 -2.4 -13.2
  Jan 18, 2025 211   @ Abilene Christian W 60-54 51%     9 - 9 2 - 2 +5.9 -5.8 +12.0
  Jan 23, 2025 125   Utah Valley L 69-74 53%     9 - 10 2 - 3 -5.5 +0.2 -5.8
  Jan 25, 2025 282   @ Southern Utah W 76-60 66%     10 - 10 3 - 3 +11.9 +8.5 +4.6
  Jan 30, 2025 211   Abilene Christian W 83-60 70%     11 - 10 4 - 3 +17.8 +16.9 +2.4
  Feb 06, 2025 282   Southern Utah L 57-60 81%     11 - 11 4 - 4 -12.2 -14.4 +1.9
  Feb 08, 2025 89   Grand Canyon W 85-71 38%     12 - 11 5 - 4 +17.3 +7.8 +8.2
  Feb 13, 2025 205   @ Texas Arlington L 79-82 OT 50%     12 - 12 5 - 5 -2.8 -2.9 +0.4
  Feb 15, 2025 290   Utah Tech W 86-83 82%     13 - 12 6 - 5 -6.6 +4.0 -10.7
  Feb 22, 2025 89   @ Grand Canyon L 69-77 21%    
  Feb 27, 2025 165   @ Seattle L 68-70 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 290   @ Utah Tech W 75-70 65%    
  Mar 06, 2025 273   Tarleton St. W 70-61 82%    
  Mar 08, 2025 205   Texas Arlington W 76-71 69%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 14.5 34.0 20.9 2.7 72.2 3rd
4th 1.8 11.1 2.4 15.3 4th
5th 0.0 4.8 2.3 0.1 7.2 5th
6th 0.4 2.4 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 1.0 0.2 1.2 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 1.4 9.5 27.9 36.5 21.3 3.5 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.3% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 3.5% 20.6% 20.6% 13.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.8
10-6 21.3% 12.0% 12.0% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.7 0.0 18.7
9-7 36.5% 9.5% 9.5% 14.6 0.1 1.1 2.1 0.1 33.0
8-8 27.9% 6.1% 6.1% 15.0 0.2 1.3 0.2 26.2
7-9 9.5% 3.0% 3.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 9.2
6-10 1.4% 1.4
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 14.5 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.4 0.4 91.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 13.1 15.3 58.3 25.0 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%
Lose Out 0.8%