California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#181
Expected Predictive Rating-1.6#212
Pace62.2#345
Improvement+0.2#146

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#132
First Shot+1.1#139
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#157
Layup/Dunks+5.9#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#278
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#278
Freethrows+0.3#171
Improvement+0.6#103

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#253
First Shot-1.8#241
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#227
Layups/Dunks-0.6#189
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#268
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#272
Freethrows+2.7#56
Improvement-0.3#236
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 9.6% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 58.0% 68.1% 42.6%
.500 or above in Conference 61.0% 66.2% 53.2%
Conference Champion 8.9% 10.8% 5.9%
Last Place in Conference 5.6% 4.3% 7.5%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round7.8% 9.5% 5.3%
Second Round0.7% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Home) - 60.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 65 - 11
Quad 411 - 416 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 308   Incarnate Word W 83-78 83%     1 - 0 -6.1 +5.3 -11.2
  Nov 09, 2024 160   Kennesaw St. W 88-84 58%     2 - 0 +1.0 +6.2 -5.5
  Nov 12, 2024 198   UC Riverside L 69-70 64%     2 - 1 -5.8 -3.5 -2.4
  Nov 15, 2024 337   LIU Brooklyn W 90-77 88%     3 - 1 -0.9 +14.5 -14.9
  Nov 20, 2024 173   Northern Colorado W 74-71 60%    
  Nov 23, 2024 245   Eastern Washington W 78-72 72%    
  Nov 26, 2024 68   SMU L 71-80 19%    
  Dec 01, 2024 71   @ Central Florida L 64-76 13%    
  Dec 11, 2024 62   @ San Diego St. L 59-72 12%    
  Dec 16, 2024 165   @ Middle Tennessee L 67-71 37%    
  Dec 21, 2024 253   @ Fresno St. W 73-72 52%    
  Dec 28, 2024 320   Jackson St. W 76-65 84%    
  Dec 30, 2024 57   UC Irvine L 65-72 27%    
  Jan 04, 2025 136   Seattle W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 11, 2025 137   @ Utah Valley L 65-71 31%    
  Jan 16, 2025 317   @ Tarleton St. W 71-67 66%    
  Jan 18, 2025 209   @ Abilene Christian L 68-70 45%    
  Jan 23, 2025 137   Utah Valley W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 25, 2025 205   @ Southern Utah L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 30, 2025 209   Abilene Christian W 71-67 65%    
  Feb 06, 2025 205   Southern Utah W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 89   Grand Canyon L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 13, 2025 164   @ Texas Arlington L 74-78 37%    
  Feb 15, 2025 304   Utah Tech W 77-67 80%    
  Feb 22, 2025 89   @ Grand Canyon L 67-77 20%    
  Feb 27, 2025 136   @ Seattle L 66-72 32%    
  Mar 01, 2025 304   @ Utah Tech W 74-70 63%    
  Mar 06, 2025 317   Tarleton St. W 74-64 82%    
  Mar 08, 2025 164   Texas Arlington W 77-75 58%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.1 8.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.9 3.2 1.0 0.1 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.2 6.2 2.8 0.4 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.1 6.6 2.5 0.2 0.0 15.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 5.2 6.5 2.2 0.1 15.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 4.7 5.5 1.7 0.1 13.1 6th
7th 0.2 1.4 4.1 4.2 1.2 0.1 11.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 2.1 0.5 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.9 9th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.4 4.6 7.5 10.4 12.8 14.2 13.6 12.0 9.1 6.4 3.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.0
14-2 94.0% 1.5    1.3 0.2
13-3 72.0% 2.6    1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-4 42.8% 2.7    1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0
11-5 13.3% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1
10-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 8.9% 8.9 5.0 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 48.6% 48.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.6% 42.9% 42.0% 0.9% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.5%
14-2 1.6% 37.6% 37.6% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0
13-3 3.5% 30.5% 30.5% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 2.5
12-4 6.4% 23.7% 23.7% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.9
11-5 9.1% 17.5% 17.5% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 7.5
10-6 12.0% 10.8% 10.8% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 10.7
9-7 13.6% 5.5% 5.5% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 12.8
8-8 14.2% 3.0% 3.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 13.7
7-9 12.8% 1.8% 1.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.6
6-10 10.4% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 10.3
5-11 7.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.5
4-12 4.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.6
3-13 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.4
2-14 1.0% 1.0
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 2.4 1.6 0.5 92.1 0.0%