Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#260
Expected Predictive Rating-4.2#238
Pace65.1#262
Improvement+7.2#5

Offense
Total Offense-6.2#330
First Shot-3.6#286
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#322
Layup/Dunks+0.4#162
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#26
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.1#356
Freethrows-0.3#198
Improvement+4.4#12

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#149
First Shot+1.3#133
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#250
Layups/Dunks+6.1#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#254
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#320
Freethrows-0.3#211
Improvement+2.8#52
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.4% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 35.4% 55.1% 24.8%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.4% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 9.7% 2.2% 13.7%
First Four0.8% 1.0% 0.7%
First Round0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Away) - 35.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 33 - 63 - 14
Quad 46 - 69 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 37   @ SMU L 62-96 4%     0 - 1 -18.9 -8.6 -8.5
  Nov 09, 2024 169   Sam Houston St. L 62-91 40%     0 - 2 -32.1 -19.1 -10.8
  Nov 12, 2024 58   @ Florida St. L 52-72 6%     0 - 3 -7.7 -16.0 +9.0
  Nov 17, 2024 22   @ Baylor L 41-104 2%     0 - 4 -45.1 -25.0 -19.4
  Nov 21, 2024 11   @ Michigan L 49-72 2%     0 - 5 -3.0 -11.6 +6.8
  Nov 29, 2024 253   Iona L 51-62 49%     0 - 6 -16.3 -15.3 -2.3
  Nov 30, 2024 175   Hofstra W 61-59 32%     1 - 6 +1.3 +1.6 +0.0
  Dec 01, 2024 213   Indiana St. L 71-87 39%     1 - 7 -18.8 -5.2 -13.7
  Dec 08, 2024 71   @ Central Florida L 51-66 7%     1 - 8 -4.5 -13.7 +8.1
  Dec 16, 2024 131   @ UTEP L 62-67 17%     1 - 9 -0.4 -2.2 +1.3
  Dec 18, 2024 101   @ Oklahoma St. L 61-66 12%     1 - 10 +2.3 -5.4 +7.6
  Dec 29, 2024 357   Florida A&M W 70-60 85%     2 - 10 -6.6 -10.5 +3.8
  Jan 04, 2025 201   Texas Arlington W 77-74 46%     3 - 10 1 - 0 -1.6 +1.1 -2.6
  Jan 09, 2025 240   @ Southern Utah W 74-66 35%     4 - 10 2 - 0 +6.4 +0.7 +5.6
  Jan 11, 2025 286   @ Utah Tech L 54-58 45%     4 - 11 2 - 1 -8.4 -15.7 +6.9
  Jan 16, 2025 172   California Baptist W 67-57 41%     5 - 11 3 - 1 +6.8 +4.7 +3.9
  Jan 18, 2025 85   @ Grand Canyon L 64-88 9%     5 - 12 3 - 2 -14.5 -1.8 -13.1
  Jan 23, 2025 242   @ Abilene Christian L 62-66 35%    
  Jan 30, 2025 286   Utah Tech W 70-66 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 240   Southern Utah W 69-68 56%    
  Feb 06, 2025 150   @ Seattle L 61-70 18%    
  Feb 08, 2025 140   @ Utah Valley L 60-70 17%    
  Feb 13, 2025 85   Grand Canyon L 65-75 19%    
  Feb 15, 2025 150   Seattle L 64-68 36%    
  Feb 22, 2025 201   @ Texas Arlington L 68-74 27%    
  Feb 27, 2025 242   Abilene Christian W 65-64 57%    
  Mar 06, 2025 172   @ California Baptist L 62-70 22%    
  Mar 08, 2025 140   Utah Valley L 63-67 36%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 3.9 2.7 0.4 0.1 8.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 8.0 5.0 0.7 0.0 16.3 4th
5th 0.1 3.5 12.0 7.8 0.9 0.0 24.4 5th
6th 0.0 2.1 10.3 6.6 0.8 19.7 6th
7th 0.8 6.4 6.3 0.9 0.0 14.5 7th
8th 0.2 3.0 5.2 1.0 0.0 9.4 8th
9th 1.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 3.5 9th
Total 1.3 5.7 14.3 21.2 22.2 18.1 10.2 4.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 77.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-4 41.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1
11-5 16.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.1% 0.1
12-4 0.5% 12.5% 12.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-5 1.7% 6.4% 6.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.6
10-6 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.6
9-7 10.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.3 9.9
8-8 18.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 17.9
7-9 22.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 22.1
6-10 21.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 21.1
5-11 14.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.2
4-12 5.7% 5.7
3-13 1.3% 1.3
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%