Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#286
Expected Predictive Rating-8.7#312
Pace66.5#247
Improvement+5.6#6

Offense
Total Offense-6.5#342
First Shot-3.2#272
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#338
Layup/Dunks+0.6#158
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#26
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#351
Freethrows-0.3#196
Improvement+2.7#27

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#174
First Shot+0.4#159
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#237
Layups/Dunks+6.3#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#224
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#343
Freethrows-0.5#220
Improvement+2.9#14
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 13.5% 14.5% 8.8%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 41.6% 40.1% 49.0%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
First Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida A&M (Home) - 82.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 32 - 93 - 17
Quad 44 - 57 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 49   @ SMU L 62-96 4%     0 - 1 -20.7 -8.7 -10.3
  Nov 09, 2024 127   Sam Houston St. L 62-91 28%     0 - 2 -29.8 -17.9 -9.7
  Nov 12, 2024 63   @ Florida St. L 52-72 5%     0 - 3 -8.2 -15.7 +8.2
  Nov 17, 2024 12   @ Baylor L 41-104 2%     0 - 4 -43.9 -26.0 -17.2
  Nov 21, 2024 21   @ Michigan L 49-72 2%     0 - 5 -5.8 -11.8 +4.2
  Nov 29, 2024 258   Iona L 51-62 44%     0 - 6 -16.3 -16.2 -1.4
  Nov 30, 2024 151   Hofstra W 61-59 25%     1 - 6 +2.3 -0.4 +2.9
  Dec 01, 2024 150   Indiana St. L 71-87 25%     1 - 7 -15.7 -4.2 -11.5
  Dec 08, 2024 84   @ Central Florida L 51-66 7%     1 - 8 -5.3 -12.4 +6.1
  Dec 16, 2024 140   @ UTEP L 62-67 16%     1 - 9 -1.0 -1.3 -0.2
  Dec 18, 2024 97   @ Oklahoma St. L 61-66 8%     1 - 10 +3.6 -5.6 +9.1
  Dec 29, 2024 357   Florida A&M W 71-61 83%    
  Jan 04, 2025 145   Texas Arlington L 71-75 34%    
  Jan 09, 2025 218   @ Southern Utah L 67-74 25%    
  Jan 11, 2025 287   @ Utah Tech L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 16, 2025 176   California Baptist L 66-69 39%    
  Jan 18, 2025 102   @ Grand Canyon L 63-78 9%    
  Jan 23, 2025 207   @ Abilene Christian L 64-72 24%    
  Jan 30, 2025 287   Utah Tech W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 01, 2025 218   Southern Utah L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 06, 2025 170   @ Seattle L 63-72 20%    
  Feb 08, 2025 148   @ Utah Valley L 62-72 18%    
  Feb 13, 2025 102   Grand Canyon L 66-75 21%    
  Feb 15, 2025 170   Seattle L 66-69 39%    
  Feb 22, 2025 145   @ Texas Arlington L 68-78 18%    
  Feb 27, 2025 207   Abilene Christian L 67-69 44%    
  Mar 06, 2025 176   @ California Baptist L 63-72 21%    
  Mar 08, 2025 148   Utah Valley L 65-69 35%    
Projected Record 7 - 21 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 5.1 4.8 0.7 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.0 6.6 6.3 1.3 0.0 16.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.6 9.2 7.7 1.8 0.0 24.2 8th
9th 1.1 4.1 8.0 9.3 5.6 1.3 0.1 29.5 9th
Total 1.1 4.1 8.9 14.1 16.7 16.7 14.2 10.7 6.7 3.9 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 82.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-4 58.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 29.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 4.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.1% 23.1% 23.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.3% 13.7% 13.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-5 0.7% 12.0% 12.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.6
10-6 1.8% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.7
9-7 3.9% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.2 3.7
8-8 6.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 6.6
7-9 10.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.6
6-10 14.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 14.1
5-11 16.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 16.7
4-12 16.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.7
3-13 14.1% 14.1
2-14 8.9% 8.9
1-15 4.1% 4.1
0-16 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%