Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.5#317
Expected Predictive Rating-6.7#279
Pace70.7#131
Improvement-0.2#200

Offense
Total Offense-5.7#332
First Shot-5.5#318
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#196
Layup/Dunks-7.0#347
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.8#350
Freethrows+4.0#27
Improvement-0.5#270

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#265
First Shot-2.6#262
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#202
Layups/Dunks+4.4#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#271
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#316
Freethrows-1.2#249
Improvement+0.3#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 0.9% 5.8% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 9.2% 17.7% 9.1%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 46.7% 31.7% 46.8%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan (Away) - 0.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 32 - 92 - 17
Quad 44 - 56 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 68   @ SMU L 62-96 4%     0 - 1 -22.7 -9.9 -11.1
  Nov 09, 2024 115   Sam Houston St. L 62-91 20%     0 - 2 -28.5 -16.6 -9.6
  Nov 12, 2024 79   @ Florida St. L 52-72 5%     0 - 3 -9.8 -16.0 +6.9
  Nov 17, 2024 11   @ Baylor L 41-104 1%     0 - 4 -43.4 -24.8 -18.1
  Nov 21, 2024 24   @ Michigan L 60-85 1%    
  Nov 29, 2024 217   Iona L 68-74 29%    
  Nov 30, 2024 131   Hofstra L 63-73 17%    
  Dec 01, 2024 180   Indiana St. L 74-82 24%    
  Dec 08, 2024 71   @ Central Florida L 62-81 4%    
  Dec 16, 2024 203   @ UTEP L 66-75 20%    
  Dec 18, 2024 86   @ Oklahoma St. L 65-83 5%    
  Dec 29, 2024 356   Florida A&M W 75-66 78%    
  Jan 04, 2025 164   Texas Arlington L 75-80 32%    
  Jan 09, 2025 205   @ Southern Utah L 70-79 20%    
  Jan 11, 2025 304   @ Utah Tech L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 16, 2025 181   California Baptist L 67-71 34%    
  Jan 18, 2025 89   @ Grand Canyon L 65-82 7%    
  Jan 23, 2025 209   @ Abilene Christian L 66-75 22%    
  Jan 30, 2025 304   Utah Tech W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 01, 2025 205   Southern Utah L 73-76 39%    
  Feb 06, 2025 136   @ Seattle L 64-77 13%    
  Feb 08, 2025 137   @ Utah Valley L 63-76 13%    
  Feb 13, 2025 89   Grand Canyon L 68-79 17%    
  Feb 15, 2025 136   Seattle L 67-74 27%    
  Feb 22, 2025 164   @ Texas Arlington L 72-83 17%    
  Feb 27, 2025 209   Abilene Christian L 69-72 40%    
  Mar 06, 2025 181   @ California Baptist L 64-74 18%    
  Mar 08, 2025 137   Utah Valley L 66-73 28%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 4 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 2.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.6 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.4 7.1 4.3 0.8 0.0 16.2 7th
8th 0.2 2.7 7.6 9.5 5.2 0.8 0.0 26.2 8th
9th 3.1 8.3 10.9 8.4 3.2 0.5 0.0 34.5 9th
Total 3.1 8.6 13.7 16.6 16.2 14.5 10.8 7.3 4.5 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 92.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-4 53.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 19.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 3.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.1% 14.3% 14.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.2% 12.3% 12.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-5 0.6% 11.6% 11.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
10-6 1.3% 4.5% 4.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
9-7 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.4
8-8 4.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.5
7-9 7.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.3
6-10 10.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.7
5-11 14.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.5
4-12 16.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.2
3-13 16.6% 16.6
2-14 13.7% 13.7
1-15 8.6% 8.6
0-16 3.1% 3.1
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%