Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#180
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#108
Pace74.0#62
Improvement+0.7#132

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#222
First Shot-1.2#200
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#240
Layup/Dunks+1.5#120
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#68
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.6#342
Freethrows+1.8#84
Improvement-2.5#340

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#145
First Shot+0.4#156
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#176
Layups/Dunks+2.7#80
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#181
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#241
Freethrows-1.4#280
Improvement+3.2#15
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.4% 11.7% 6.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 60.1% 76.4% 51.1%
.500 or above in Conference 58.1% 75.0% 48.7%
Conference Champion 6.6% 11.8% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 6.7% 2.8% 8.9%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round8.3% 11.6% 6.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Away) - 35.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 34 - 44 - 11
Quad 411 - 215 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 42 @SMU L 76-96 7%     0 - 1 -4.9 +5.8 -9.9
  Wed, Nov 5 39 @LSU L 60-96 7%     0 - 2 -20.6 -5.2 -16.4
  Sat, Nov 8 218 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 85-77 69%     1 - 2 +1.4 +13.1 -11.6
  Tue, Nov 11 263 Merrimack W 76-62 75%     2 - 2 +5.3 -3.6 +8.2
  Fri, Nov 14 27 @Baylor L 81-94 5%     2 - 3 +4.8 +9.7 -4.4
  Thu, Nov 20 231 @Rice W 90-74 49%     3 - 3 +14.6 +10.8 +2.8
  Mon, Dec 1 67 @Cincinnati L 58-76 12%     3 - 4 -6.8 -4.6 -2.0
  Tue, Dec 16 365 @Mississippi Valley W 88-64 95%     4 - 4 +3.9 +1.7 +0.5
  Fri, Dec 19 341 Florida A&M W 78-54 88%     5 - 4 +9.5 -8.0 +15.1
  Mon, Dec 29 167 @Texas Arlington L 68-72 36%    
  Thu, Jan 1 85 Utah Valley L 71-76 31%    
  Sat, Jan 3 134 California Baptist L 72-73 49%    
  Thu, Jan 8 204 Abilene Christian W 73-69 66%    
  Thu, Jan 15 319 @Southern Utah W 78-73 67%    
  Sat, Jan 17 251 @Utah Tech W 75-74 52%    
  Wed, Jan 21 167 @Texas Arlington L 68-72 36%    
  Sat, Jan 24 204 Abilene Christian W 73-69 65%    
  Thu, Jan 29 85 Utah Valley L 71-76 32%    
  Sat, Jan 31 251 Utah Tech W 78-71 73%    
  Thu, Feb 5 134 @California Baptist L 69-75 28%    
  Sat, Feb 7 319 @Southern Utah W 78-73 67%    
  Sat, Feb 14 204 @Abilene Christian L 70-72 44%    
  Thu, Feb 19 319 Southern Utah W 81-70 84%    
  Sat, Feb 21 251 Utah Tech W 78-71 72%    
  Thu, Feb 26 85 @Utah Valley L 68-79 16%    
  Sat, Feb 28 134 @California Baptist L 69-75 29%    
  Thu, Mar 5 167 Texas Arlington W 71-69 58%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.6 5.7 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 17.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 4.7 8.1 5.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 22.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.9 7.5 3.7 0.7 0.0 21.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.8 6.6 4.7 1.4 0.1 17.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.4 3.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.6 7th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.8 5.1 8.3 10.9 13.0 13.9 13.8 11.3 8.6 5.5 3.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 98.6% 0.5    0.4 0.0
15-3 88.5% 1.2    0.9 0.2
14-4 64.0% 1.9    1.1 0.8 0.1
13-5 33.2% 1.8    0.8 0.8 0.2
12-6 10.2% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.6% 6.6 3.7 2.3 0.6 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 32.3% 32.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.5% 39.3% 39.3% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.3% 33.9% 33.9% 12.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.9
14-4 3.0% 27.6% 27.6% 13.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.2
13-5 5.5% 21.9% 21.9% 13.4 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 4.3
12-6 8.6% 17.2% 17.2% 13.7 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 7.1
11-7 11.3% 13.0% 13.0% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 9.9
10-8 13.8% 8.2% 8.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 12.6
9-9 13.9% 5.2% 5.2% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 13.2
8-10 13.0% 3.8% 3.8% 15.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 12.5
7-11 10.9% 2.3% 2.3% 15.8 0.0 0.2 10.7
6-12 8.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 8.1
5-13 5.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.0
4-14 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-15 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.9 1.8 0.5 91.6 0.0%