SMU
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.0#40
Expected Predictive Rating+18.3#16
Pace74.4#65
Improvement-1.4#281

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#47
First Shot+5.4#47
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#85
Layup/Dunks+3.8#64
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#44
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#272
Freethrows+1.5#95
Improvement-1.3#289

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#48
First Shot+3.6#65
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#92
Layups/Dunks+1.8#116
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#219
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#168
Freethrows+1.5#97
Improvement-0.1#199
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 1.2% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 6.5% 9.1% 3.7%
Top 6 Seed 21.4% 28.0% 14.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.0% 77.0% 60.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 68.1% 76.2% 60.0%
Average Seed 7.7 7.4 8.1
.500 or above 96.0% 98.4% 93.5%
.500 or above in Conference 66.3% 71.4% 61.0%
Conference Champion 2.3% 2.9% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.7% 1.3%
First Four8.5% 7.5% 9.5%
First Round64.5% 73.1% 55.9%
Second Round35.8% 42.5% 29.0%
Sweet Sixteen11.0% 13.9% 8.1%
Elite Eight3.6% 4.4% 2.7%
Final Four1.1% 1.4% 0.8%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M (Neutral) - 50.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 26 - 311 - 11
Quad 34 - 015 - 11
Quad 46 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 201 Tarleton St. W 96-76 94%     1 - 0 +14.5 +17.1 -3.4
  Thu, Nov 6 210 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-58 94%     2 - 0 +4.7 -2.9 +7.8
  Tue, Nov 11 111 Murray St. W 102-91 85%     3 - 0 +11.7 +13.7 -3.5
  Sat, Nov 15 55 Butler W 87-85 68%     4 - 0 +9.1 +11.1 -2.1
  Tue, Nov 18 353 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 106-60 99%     5 - 0 +30.2 +13.3 +10.9
  Fri, Nov 21 149 Arkansas St. W 100-69 91%     6 - 0 +28.3 +13.0 +11.4
  Mon, Nov 24 288 Radford W 89-72 97%     7 - 0 +6.9 +1.9 +3.3
  Fri, Nov 28 78 @Mississippi St. W 87-81 OT 56%     8 - 0 +16.3 +8.0 +7.6
  Wed, Dec 3 11 @Vanderbilt L 69-88 18%     8 - 1 +2.6 +6.3 -4.3
  Sun, Dec 7 39 Texas A&M L 81-82 50%    
  Sat, Dec 13 31 LSU L 78-80 45%    
  Sun, Dec 21 279 Central Arkansas W 87-66 97%    
  Sun, Dec 28 303 Cal St. Fullerton W 97-74 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 22 North Carolina L 80-81 50%    
  Wed, Jan 7 33 @Clemson L 73-77 35%    
  Sat, Jan 10 3 @Duke L 69-83 11%    
  Wed, Jan 14 67 Virginia Tech W 82-76 73%    
  Sat, Jan 17 23 Virginia W 78-77 50%    
  Tue, Jan 20 50 @Wake Forest L 79-81 44%    
  Sat, Jan 24 101 Florida St. W 88-78 82%    
  Sat, Jan 31 13 @Louisville L 78-87 20%    
  Tue, Feb 3 36 North Carolina St. W 84-82 57%    
  Sat, Feb 7 95 @Pittsburgh W 76-72 63%    
  Tue, Feb 10 58 Notre Dame W 76-71 69%    
  Sat, Feb 14 60 @Syracuse L 76-77 49%    
  Tue, Feb 17 13 Louisville L 81-84 38%    
  Sat, Feb 21 145 Boston College W 80-66 89%    
  Wed, Feb 25 76 @California W 78-77 55%    
  Sat, Feb 28 85 @Stanford W 81-78 58%    
  Wed, Mar 4 32 Miami (FL) W 80-78 55%    
  Sat, Mar 7 101 @Florida St. W 85-81 64%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.0 3.0 1.0 0.1 6.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.0 1.9 0.1 7.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.3 3.1 0.4 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.1 4.5 0.9 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 5.1 2.1 0.1 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.4 3.9 0.4 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.1 2.1 4.9 1.2 0.0 8.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 4.3 2.6 0.1 7.8 10th
11th 0.1 2.4 3.7 0.6 0.0 7.0 11th
12th 0.0 1.0 3.3 1.4 0.1 5.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.1 0.2 4.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.5 0.0 3.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.8 0.1 2.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.7 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.6 5.9 9.3 12.4 14.3 14.3 13.3 10.4 7.2 4.1 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 94.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-2 79.6% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
15-3 43.4% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 15.6% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 22.0% 78.0% 2.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.7% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 2.9 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.9% 100.0% 15.1% 84.9% 3.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.1% 100.0% 11.0% 89.0% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 7.2% 100.0% 7.2% 92.7% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.1 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 10.4% 98.8% 4.6% 94.1% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.9 2.7 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.7%
11-7 13.3% 96.5% 2.6% 93.9% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.2 3.1 2.4 1.1 0.2 0.5 96.4%
10-8 14.3% 89.8% 1.5% 88.3% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 3.1 3.7 2.6 0.9 1.5 89.6%
9-9 14.3% 76.2% 0.8% 75.4% 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 3.4 2.2 0.0 3.4 76.0%
8-10 12.4% 48.7% 0.5% 48.2% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 2.7 0.1 6.3 48.5%
7-11 9.3% 19.8% 0.1% 19.7% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 0.1 7.4 19.7%
6-12 5.9% 5.6% 0.2% 5.4% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.6 5.4%
5-13 3.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.5%
4-14 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 1.7 0.2%
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 69.0% 2.7% 66.3% 7.7 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.8 6.3 8.6 9.5 9.9 10.6 9.8 7.5 0.3 31.0 68.1%