North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#36
Expected Predictive Rating+9.8#65
Pace74.0#74
Improvement-4.8#361

Offense
Total Offense+9.5#16
First Shot+8.8#10
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#144
Layup/Dunks+3.0#80
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#206
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#81
Freethrows+2.8#48
Improvement-4.0#363

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#79
First Shot+1.0#134
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#58
Layups/Dunks+6.3#23
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#130
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#337
Freethrows-0.9#244
Improvement-0.8#257
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 5.6% 6.3% 2.2%
Top 6 Seed 18.9% 20.7% 9.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 64.7% 68.0% 47.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 63.3% 66.6% 46.5%
Average Seed 7.7 7.6 8.2
.500 or above 90.0% 92.5% 76.8%
.500 or above in Conference 74.6% 76.5% 64.8%
Conference Champion 3.8% 4.1% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 1.2%
First Four6.6% 6.6% 6.7%
First Round61.5% 64.9% 44.3%
Second Round35.8% 38.1% 24.5%
Sweet Sixteen11.4% 12.4% 6.4%
Elite Eight3.9% 4.3% 1.9%
Final Four1.2% 1.4% 0.6%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Liberty (Home) - 83.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 9
Quad 26 - 411 - 12
Quad 34 - 116 - 13
Quad 44 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 350 NC Central W 114-65 99%     1 - 0 +33.5 +31.4 +0.3
  Fri, Nov 7 110 UAB W 94-70 87%     2 - 0 +24.7 +15.8 +7.4
  Wed, Nov 12 281 UNC Greensboro W 110-64 97%     3 - 0 +36.5 +25.1 +8.8
  Mon, Nov 17 42 Virginia Commonwealth W 85-79 66%     4 - 0 +14.6 +14.0 +0.4
  Mon, Nov 24 64 Seton Hall L 74-85 66%     4 - 1 -2.4 +3.9 -5.7
  Tue, Nov 25 52 Boise St. W 81-70 60%     5 - 1 +21.3 +15.0 +6.2
  Wed, Nov 26 46 Texas L 97-102 57%     5 - 2 +5.9 +24.3 -18.2
  Wed, Dec 3 26 @Auburn L 73-83 33%     5 - 3 +7.2 +5.8 +1.5
  Sat, Dec 6 203 UNC Asheville W 75-63 95%     6 - 3 +6.4 +1.3 +5.6
  Wed, Dec 10 94 Liberty W 83-73 84%    
  Sat, Dec 13 18 Kansas L 77-78 49%    
  Wed, Dec 17 305 Texas Southern W 92-68 99%    
  Sat, Dec 20 57 Mississippi W 78-75 60%    
  Wed, Dec 31 50 Wake Forest W 84-79 69%    
  Sat, Jan 3 23 Virginia W 80-79 54%    
  Tue, Jan 6 145 @Boston College W 79-70 79%    
  Sat, Jan 10 101 @Florida St. W 87-82 68%    
  Sat, Jan 17 135 Georgia Tech W 85-71 90%    
  Tue, Jan 20 33 @Clemson L 75-78 37%    
  Sat, Jan 24 95 @Pittsburgh W 78-73 66%    
  Tue, Jan 27 60 Syracuse W 81-74 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 50 @Wake Forest L 81-82 47%    
  Tue, Feb 3 40 @SMU L 82-84 43%    
  Sat, Feb 7 67 Virginia Tech W 84-77 74%    
  Mon, Feb 9 13 @Louisville L 80-89 22%    
  Sat, Feb 14 32 Miami (FL) W 82-80 59%    
  Tue, Feb 17 22 North Carolina W 83-82 53%    
  Tue, Feb 24 23 @Virginia L 77-82 33%    
  Sat, Feb 28 58 @Notre Dame W 76-75 51%    
  Mon, Mar 2 3 Duke L 74-81 28%    
  Sat, Mar 7 85 Stanford W 86-77 80%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 3.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.0 1.8 0.1 0.0 8.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 4.8 2.3 0.2 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.7 3.6 0.5 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.2 4.8 1.1 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 5.3 2.3 0.1 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.0 3.7 0.4 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 4.5 1.2 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.6 2.5 0.1 6.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.7 3.0 0.5 0.0 5.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.2 0.1 4.6 12th
13th 0.2 1.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 3.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.3 2.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.3 6.9 10.4 13.2 14.5 14.5 12.5 9.3 6.1 3.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 98.2% 0.4    0.3 0.1
16-2 75.7% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0
15-3 47.5% 1.5    0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 14.7% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 1.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 23.0% 77.0% 2.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.0% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 3.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.1% 100.0% 15.2% 84.8% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.1% 99.7% 10.1% 89.6% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.7 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-5 9.3% 99.0% 8.2% 90.7% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.6 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
12-6 12.5% 96.5% 6.2% 90.4% 7.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 3.3 3.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.4 96.3%
11-7 14.5% 89.4% 3.2% 86.3% 8.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.7 3.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 1.5 89.1%
10-8 14.5% 73.4% 1.7% 71.6% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 3.0 3.2 1.4 0.0 3.9 72.9%
9-9 13.2% 49.8% 1.0% 48.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.2 2.2 0.1 6.6 49.3%
8-10 10.4% 22.1% 0.5% 21.7% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 0.1 8.1 21.8%
7-11 6.9% 4.3% 0.1% 4.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.6 4.2%
6-12 4.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.3%
5-13 2.3% 2.3
4-14 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 64.7% 3.8% 60.9% 7.7 0.2 0.4 1.7 3.4 5.5 7.7 9.7 11.1 10.3 8.7 5.7 0.3 0.0 35.3 63.3%