UAB
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#110
Expected Predictive Rating+4.8#110
Pace73.0#99
Improvement+0.1#182

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#123
First Shot-2.1#233
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#17
Layup/Dunks+6.7#20
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#48
3 Pt Jumpshots-12.3#364
Freethrows+0.5#155
Improvement+0.8#113

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#114
First Shot-0.7#192
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#43
Layups/Dunks-1.7#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#9
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#232
Freethrows-0.4#215
Improvement-0.7#247
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 8.9% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.0 12.4
.500 or above 89.8% 93.5% 80.8%
.500 or above in Conference 74.5% 77.4% 67.2%
Conference Champion 9.8% 11.2% 6.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.1% 2.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round7.9% 8.9% 5.6%
Second Round1.3% 1.6% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Home) - 71.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 38 - 411 - 10
Quad 49 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 106-55 99%     1 - 0 +25.9 +4.4 +12.6
  Fri, Nov 7 36 @North Carolina St. L 70-94 13%     1 - 1 -8.2 -2.2 -4.5
  Tue, Nov 11 276 Alabama St. L 74-77 88%     1 - 2 -12.0 -8.6 -3.3
  Fri, Nov 14 97 High Point W 91-74 56%     2 - 2 +19.2 +6.5 +11.0
  Fri, Nov 21 166 South Alabama W 80-72 76%     3 - 2 +4.2 +12.7 -7.7
  Mon, Nov 24 143 Southern Illinois W 81-73 60%     4 - 2 +9.2 +8.1 +1.1
  Tue, Nov 25 241 UTEP W 75-59 78%     5 - 2 +11.5 +11.1 +2.1
  Mon, Dec 1 136 @Middle Tennessee L 61-76 46%     5 - 3 -10.3 -6.4 -4.7
  Fri, Dec 5 124 @Drake W 74-69 43%     6 - 3 +10.4 +5.9 +4.6
  Sun, Dec 14 147 Troy W 78-72 71%    
  Wed, Dec 17 323 Cleveland St. W 88-72 93%    
  Sun, Dec 21 203 UNC Asheville W 80-71 81%    
  Wed, Dec 31 91 Wichita St. W 74-73 54%    
  Tue, Jan 6 79 @South Florida L 77-84 27%    
  Wed, Jan 7 122 Florida Atlantic W 79-75 64%    
  Sun, Jan 11 266 @East Carolina W 79-73 72%    
  Wed, Jan 14 187 @Tulane W 78-76 59%    
  Sun, Jan 18 89 Tulsa W 77-76 53%    
  Thu, Jan 22 79 South Florida L 80-81 48%    
  Wed, Jan 28 277 @Texas San Antonio W 79-72 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 144 @North Texas L 69-70 49%    
  Thu, Feb 5 69 Memphis L 76-77 45%    
  Sun, Feb 8 213 Rice W 78-68 81%    
  Wed, Feb 11 89 @Tulsa L 74-79 31%    
  Sun, Feb 15 187 Tulane W 81-73 78%    
  Wed, Feb 18 160 @Temple W 79-78 54%    
  Sun, Feb 22 69 @Memphis L 73-80 25%    
  Sun, Mar 1 144 North Texas W 72-66 69%    
  Wed, Mar 4 181 @Charlotte W 73-71 58%    
  Sun, Mar 8 266 East Carolina W 82-70 86%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.1 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 9.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.0 2.6 0.5 0.0 11.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.2 2.9 0.3 12.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.9 3.7 0.4 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.8 4.3 0.8 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.4 4.5 1.0 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.2 2.0 4.0 1.3 0.1 7.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.9 1.6 0.1 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.2 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.4 7.0 10.1 12.7 14.2 14.3 12.6 9.6 6.0 3.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 96.7% 1.4    1.3 0.1
15-3 83.6% 2.7    1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 51.8% 3.1    1.4 1.3 0.4 0.0
13-5 18.8% 1.8    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.4    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.8% 9.8 5.4 3.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 61.9% 42.9% 19.0% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.3%
17-1 0.4% 43.8% 39.2% 4.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 7.6%
16-2 1.4% 31.1% 29.9% 1.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 1.0 1.7%
15-3 3.2% 23.8% 23.7% 0.1% 11.6 0.3 0.4 0.0 2.4 0.1%
14-4 6.0% 20.0% 19.9% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 4.8 0.1%
13-5 9.6% 15.8% 15.8% 0.0% 12.0 0.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 8.0 0.0%
12-6 12.6% 11.0% 11.0% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 11.2
11-7 14.3% 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 12.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 13.2 0.0%
10-8 14.2% 5.1% 5.1% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 13.5
9-9 12.7% 2.7% 2.7% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 12.4
8-10 10.1% 2.1% 2.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.9
7-11 7.0% 1.2% 1.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9
6-12 4.4% 0.7% 0.7% 14.9 0.0 0.0 4.4
5-13 2.3% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.3
4-14 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 8.0% 7.9% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.2 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 92.0 0.1%