Troy
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#147
Expected Predictive Rating+0.1#171
Pace69.5#184
Improvement-3.5#351

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#178
First Shot+0.8#155
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#276
Layup/Dunks+0.5#157
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#301
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#201
Freethrows+3.3#33
Improvement-1.8#314

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#133
First Shot+1.6#114
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#222
Layups/Dunks+4.2#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#169
Freethrows-1.1#255
Improvement-1.7#306
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.6% 25.1% 18.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.2 13.7
.500 or above 84.8% 93.7% 81.2%
.500 or above in Conference 92.5% 95.5% 91.2%
Conference Champion 29.2% 35.2% 26.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round20.5% 25.1% 18.7%
Second Round1.3% 1.9% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Away) - 28.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 22 - 12 - 3
Quad 34 - 57 - 8
Quad 411 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 121 @Kent St. W 103-97 OT 31%     1 - 0 +11.8 +11.4 -0.7
  Fri, Nov 7 148 @Furman W 64-61 39%     2 - 0 +6.6 -6.6 +13.3
  Fri, Nov 14 140 @Loyola Marymount L 63-74 36%     2 - 1 -6.6 -4.3 -2.4
  Sun, Nov 16 261 @Cal St. Northridge L 85-94 62%     2 - 2 -11.4 +8.0 -19.0
  Tue, Nov 18 56 @San Diego St. W 108-107 2OT 13%     3 - 2 +14.0 +17.6 -3.8
  Thu, Nov 20 35 @USC L 106-107 3OT 9%     3 - 3 +14.8 +6.8 +8.3
  Mon, Nov 24 163 Toledo L 68-75 55%     3 - 4 -7.6 -7.6 -0.1
  Wed, Nov 26 357 St. Francis (PA) W 74-64 91%     4 - 4 -3.9 -7.0 +2.6
  Mon, Dec 1 318 West Georgia L 89-93 2OT 88%     4 - 5 -15.9 -5.8 -9.4
  Sun, Dec 14 110 @UAB L 72-78 29%    
  Sat, Dec 20 172 Marshall W 78-73 67%    
  Wed, Dec 31 237 Texas St. W 73-65 77%    
  Sat, Jan 3 166 South Alabama W 72-68 66%    
  Wed, Jan 7 149 @Arkansas St. L 76-79 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 319 @Louisiana W 70-63 73%    
  Wed, Jan 14 224 Southern Miss W 77-70 75%    
  Sat, Jan 17 149 Arkansas St. W 79-76 62%    
  Wed, Jan 21 212 @Old Dominion W 74-73 53%    
  Sat, Jan 24 232 @Georgia Southern W 78-76 56%    
  Thu, Jan 29 177 James Madison W 76-71 68%    
  Sat, Jan 31 282 Appalachian St. W 72-62 82%    
  Wed, Feb 4 338 @Georgia St. W 76-67 79%    
  Wed, Feb 11 237 @Texas St. W 70-68 57%    
  Sat, Feb 14 224 @Southern Miss W 74-73 56%    
  Wed, Feb 18 360 @Louisiana Monroe W 80-68 85%    
  Sat, Feb 21 166 @South Alabama L 69-71 45%    
  Tue, Feb 24 319 Louisiana W 73-60 87%    
  Fri, Feb 27 360 Louisiana Monroe W 83-65 94%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.6 7.9 8.3 5.8 2.5 0.6 29.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.7 7.2 5.0 1.5 0.1 0.0 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 6.6 4.1 0.7 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.7 3.9 0.6 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.2 3.9 0.8 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.6 1.1 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.6 1.7 0.1 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.8 0.3 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.8 6.7 9.9 12.4 15.6 15.4 13.6 9.8 6.0 2.5 0.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.7% 2.5    2.4 0.1
16-2 97.6% 5.8    5.3 0.5 0.0
15-3 84.8% 8.3    6.1 2.1 0.2
14-4 58.0% 7.9    3.6 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 23.1% 3.6    0.8 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.0
12-6 3.7% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.2% 29.2 18.8 7.3 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 52.7% 52.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
17-1 2.5% 49.3% 49.3% 12.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3
16-2 6.0% 43.6% 43.6% 12.9 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.4
15-3 9.8% 40.0% 40.0% 13.3 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.4 0.1 5.9
14-4 13.6% 33.9% 33.9% 13.5 0.2 2.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.0
13-5 15.4% 23.6% 23.6% 13.8 0.1 1.2 1.8 0.6 0.0 11.8
12-6 15.6% 15.5% 15.5% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.0 13.2
11-7 12.4% 8.7% 8.7% 14.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 11.3
10-8 9.9% 5.1% 5.1% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 9.4
9-9 6.7% 2.6% 2.6% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.5
8-10 3.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
7-11 2.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
6-12 1.0% 1.0
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.6% 20.6% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 7.6 7.7 2.5 0.2 79.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.0 2.6 5.1 10.3 56.4 20.5 5.1