Furman
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#148
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#144
Pace66.4#268
Improvement+5.5#1

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#130
First Shot+3.2#91
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#291
Layup/Dunks+3.2#76
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#226
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#108
Freethrows-1.5#270
Improvement+4.7#1

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#190
First Shot+0.7#151
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#286
Layups/Dunks+0.7#147
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#125
Freethrows+3.0#30
Improvement+0.8#113
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.1% 24.6% 19.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 93.3% 96.2% 86.1%
.500 or above in Conference 93.7% 94.9% 90.8%
Conference Champion 29.7% 32.5% 22.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.9%
First Round22.9% 24.6% 18.9%
Second Round1.4% 1.6% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Away) - 71.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 45 - 7
Quad 415 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 97 High Point L 71-97 33%     0 - 1 -20.8 -5.5 -14.2
  Fri, Nov 7 147 Troy L 61-64 61%     0 - 2 -5.3 -10.7 +5.3
  Fri, Nov 14 98 @Northern Iowa L 54-70 23%     0 - 3 -7.8 -6.8 -2.5
  Sun, Nov 23 196 Queens W 90-79 72%     1 - 3 +5.7 +20.4 -13.5
  Thu, Nov 27 105 Richmond W 73-72 36%     2 - 3 +5.4 +3.0 +2.4
  Fri, Nov 28 92 Illinois St. L 65-72 31%     2 - 4 -1.2 -2.2 +0.7
  Wed, Dec 3 184 @Elon W 97-88 47%     3 - 4 +10.3 +18.6 -8.6
  Sat, Dec 6 202 Harvard W 79-69 72%     4 - 4 +4.4 +5.5 -0.8
  Thu, Dec 18 308 @Manhattan W 79-73 71%    
  Sun, Dec 21 285 Charleston Southern W 80-69 84%    
  Wed, Dec 31 194 Mercer W 80-74 70%    
  Sat, Jan 3 289 Western Carolina W 80-69 84%    
  Wed, Jan 7 222 @Chattanooga W 72-71 55%    
  Sat, Jan 10 341 VMI W 81-66 92%    
  Wed, Jan 14 231 @Samford W 75-73 56%    
  Sat, Jan 17 247 Wofford W 77-69 78%    
  Wed, Jan 21 363 @The Citadel W 78-65 88%    
  Sat, Jan 24 281 @UNC Greensboro W 76-72 64%    
  Thu, Jan 29 231 Samford W 78-70 75%    
  Sun, Feb 1 222 Chattanooga W 75-68 74%    
  Wed, Feb 4 117 @East Tennessee St. L 70-76 31%    
  Sun, Feb 8 281 UNC Greensboro W 79-69 82%    
  Wed, Feb 11 194 @Mercer L 77-78 49%    
  Sat, Feb 14 341 @VMI W 78-69 79%    
  Wed, Feb 18 117 East Tennessee St. W 73-72 51%    
  Sat, Feb 21 247 @Wofford W 74-72 58%    
  Wed, Feb 25 363 The Citadel W 81-62 95%    
  Sat, Feb 28 289 @Western Carolina W 77-72 66%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.4 6.8 8.8 6.4 2.9 0.7 29.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 6.3 9.5 7.1 2.4 0.4 27.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.6 6.7 3.0 0.4 17.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 4.1 4.4 1.3 0.1 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.6 0.7 0.0 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.4 5.8 8.7 12.3 14.9 16.0 14.4 11.2 6.8 2.9 0.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 2.9    2.9 0.1
16-2 94.3% 6.4    5.5 0.9
15-3 78.5% 8.8    6.3 2.4 0.1
14-4 47.5% 6.8    3.4 2.9 0.5 0.0
13-5 21.0% 3.4    0.9 1.7 0.7 0.1
12-6 4.6% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.7% 29.7 19.7 8.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 58.3% 58.3% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3
17-1 2.9% 49.3% 49.3% 12.6 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.5
16-2 6.8% 42.3% 42.3% 13.2 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.9
15-3 11.2% 35.3% 35.3% 13.5 0.2 1.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.2
14-4 14.4% 29.2% 29.2% 13.9 0.1 1.2 2.2 0.7 0.0 10.2
13-5 16.0% 23.9% 23.9% 14.2 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.2 0.1 12.2
12-6 14.9% 19.1% 19.1% 14.5 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.2 12.1
11-7 12.3% 14.0% 14.0% 14.9 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.3 10.6
10-8 8.7% 11.5% 11.5% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 7.7
9-9 5.8% 9.2% 9.2% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 5.3
8-10 3.4% 5.8% 5.8% 15.8 0.0 0.2 3.2
7-11 1.7% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.7
6-12 0.7% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.3% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 23.1% 23.1% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.9 8.6 5.3 1.5 76.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.4 5.2 52.1 37.5 5.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%