Furman
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -1.0 176
Expected Predictive Rating -1.6 194
Pace 65.2 272
Improvement -1.3 247

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #205 C+ C- D- D B
Defense C #155 C+ C D B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 180 64% 57 +2.4 101
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 317 48% 12 -1.5 262
Three Pointers 48% 46 30% 312 +0.9 146
1st FG Attempt 1.06 111 +1.8 117
Second Chance 29.8% 201 0.96 283 0.29 238
Turnovers 19.7% 332
Freethrows 0.28 270 67% 336 0.19 309
Total Offense -1.4 205

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 204 54% 84 +1.7 119
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 97 41% 278 -1.3 290
Three Pointers 39% 247 32% 103 +1.9 101
1st FG Attempt 0.98 110 +2.3 104
Second Chance 30.9% 195 1.02 179 0.32 196
Turnovers 14.7% 312
Freethrows 0.24 25 72% 182 0.18 32
Total Defense +0.4 155

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.9 64 -0.3 107
Shot Type Accuracy +1.1 129 -1.7 109
Possession Length 17.8 238 17.4 203
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 179 0.19 248
Improvement -1.9 #290 +0.6 #148

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16% 17% 12%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 99% 100% 93%
.500 or above in Conference 96% 99% 78%
Conference Champion 1% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round16% 16% 12%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: VMI (Away) - 86.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 35 - 45 - 8
Quad 412 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 92 High Point L 71 - 97 27% -17  6% 0 - 1 F -21 D- -7 C+ D- F F -12 F C+ F
 Fri, Nov 7 135 Troy L 61 - 64 51% -7  0% 0 - 2 C- -4 F -14 D+ D F A +10 B A A-
 Fri, Nov 14 100 @Northern Iowa L 54 - 70 19% -10  3% 0 - 3 D+ -8 D- -7 D+ D+ D- C- -2 C- B+ F+
 Sun, Nov 23 218 Queens W 90 - 79 69% +11  95% 1 - 3 B- +5 A+ +16 A+ F+ A+ F+ -10 B- F F
 Thu, Nov 27 128 Richmond W 73 - 72 39% +6  96% 2 - 3 C+ +3 C- -2 B+ B+ F B +5 C B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 94 Illinois St. L 65 - 72 27% -4  12% 2 - 4 C- -2 D+ -4 B+ F+ D C+ +2 B D C-
 Wed, Dec 3 215 @Elon W 97 - 88 46% -1  49% 3 - 4 B +9 A+ +16 A- F+ A D -7 B C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 153 Harvard W 79 - 69 57% +7  90% 4 - 4 B- +7 B- +4 A+ B+ F B- +3 B- B F
 Thu, Dec 18 323 @Manhattan W 75 - 68 72% +2  74% 5 - 4 C -0 D- -6 C+ D F B+ +6 C+ C- C+
 Sun, Dec 21 256 Charleston Southern W 84 - 76 76% +6  85% 6 - 4 C -0 C +0 C+ B- C+ C -1 B- C+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 171 Mercer W 74 - 72 60% +3  82% 7 - 4 1 - 0 C -2 C- -1 B D- B- C -0 A D- F
 Sat, Jan 3 263 Western Carolina L 77 - 80 OT 77% -3  21% 7 - 5 1 - 1 D- -12 D- -7 C- D- B- D+ -5 C F C-
 Wed, Jan 7 282 @Chattanooga W 78 - 67 61% +5  64% 8 - 5 2 - 1 B- +7 C+ +2 C B D B +5 C C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 360 VMI W 69 - 48 94% +10  83% 9 - 5 3 - 1 C+ +2 F -13 F+ B F A+ +17 A+ D+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 194 @Samford W 77 - 73 43% +2  56% 10 - 5 4 - 1 C+ +5 C -0 C C- D+ B +5 B- C C-
 Sat, Jan 17 212 Wofford L 70 - 74 68% +3  72% 10 - 6 4 - 2 D -10 D+ -4 F A D- D -7 D D- D
 Wed, Jan 21 347 @The Citadel L 75 - 77 OT 79% +6  68% 10 - 7 4 - 3 D- -11 D -5 D F C D -6 C+ F F+
 Fri, Jan 23 302 @UNC Greensboro W 89 - 66 66% +5  89% 11 - 7 5 - 3 A +18 A+ +17 A+ D+ A B- +3 C C+ D+
 Thu, Jan 29 194 Samford W 78 - 73 66% +4  75% 12 - 7 6 - 3 C -0 B- +5 A A+ F D+ -5 B F F
 Sun, Feb 1 282 Chattanooga W 75 - 70 80% +12  95% 13 - 7 7 - 3 D+ -5 C- -0 B- C+ F D+ -4 B F C+
 Wed, Feb 4 126 @East Tennessee St. L 71 - 75 OT 28% +5  82% 13 - 8 7 - 4 C +1 D -5 A D F B+ +6 C+ A+ D-
 Sun, Feb 8 302 UNC Greensboro L 64 - 67 83% -4  13% 13 - 9 7 - 5 D- -14 F -12 F+ D- F C- -2 F+ A+ D+
 Wed, Feb 11 171 @Mercer L 64 - 69 37% +2  67% 13 - 10 7 - 6 C- -3 F+ -8 F C- A B +5 A B+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 360 @VMI W 78 - 66 86%
 Wed, Feb 18 126 East Tennessee St. W 71 - 70 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 212 @Wofford L 73 - 74 45%
 Wed, Feb 25 347 The Citadel W 75 - 61 91%
 Sat, Feb 28 263 @Western Carolina W 76 - 74 56%
Totals 16 - 12 10 - 8 -1 C- -1 C+ C- D- C +0 C+ C D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B A D C+ 39% 14% 48% B C+ C D+ C- D- D+ D- D C B- D+ B- C+ 38% 23% 39% C+ C+ C C C D B+ C B+
1.07 64% 48% 30% +1 +1 1.06 30% 1.0 .29 20% .28 67% .19 1.08 54% 41% 32% -2 0 0.98 31% 1.0 .32 15% .24 72% .20
Nov
3		 High Point D- A- A+ F+ C+ 40% 17% 44% C C+ A+ F D- F A- C+ A- F F D F+ F 43% 28% 30% A F B+ F+ C+ F A+ A+ A+
0.97 68% 50% 29% +3 +1 1.08 44% 0.6 .26 30% .37 74% .27 1.33 81% 41% 39% +13 -1 1.26 26% 1.3 .34 8% .22 53% .12
Nov
7		 Troy F F F A D- 41% 11% 48% A- D+ D+ D- D F D- D D- A B F A- B+ 35% 10% 55% C+ B A+ B+ A A- B+ B A-
0.89 42% 20% 41% -3 +1 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 25% .23 67% .16 0.94 50% 60% 29% -5 +1 0.94 24% 0.9 .21 20% .24 69% .17
Nov
14		 Northern Iowa D- A+ A+ F D 39% 4% 57% A D+ C- D- D+ D- D F F C- C- F B D+ 45% 19% 36% C+ C- C A+ B+ F+ D- F F
0.84 74% 50% 14% -10 +2 0.86 22% 0.8 .17 20% .22 55% .12 1.09 62% 56% 29% +3 +1 1.09 22% 0.7 .16 11% .30 82% .24
Nov
23		 Queens A+ A+ A+ A- A+ 41% 6% 53% B+ A+ B- F F+ A+ C F D+ F+ C+ F+ B- C+ 27% 25% 48% A+ B- A- F F F C+ F C-
1.43 81% 67% 41% +17 +2 1.39 37% 0.6 .23 6% .36 67% .24 1.25 57% 46% 32% 0 -1 1.00 24% 1.9 .45 6% .29 82% .24
Nov
27		 Richmond C- A+ B- D+ A- 26% 26% 49% C- B+ B B B+ F A+ F D B C B C B 41% 12% 47% F C F A+ B+ A+ C F D
1.06 83% 42% 30% +5 -2 1.09 35% 1.3 .44 23% .40 43% .17 1.04 60% 33% 35% +1 +1 1.06 39% 0.5 .19 25% .33 88% .29
Nov
28		 Illinois St. D+ C- B+ B+ B 39% 14% 47% A B+ D- F F+ D F F F C+ D- D B- C 20% 37% 43% A+ B C+ F D C- C- B- C
0.97 55% 43% 38% +2 +1 1.08 19% 0.7 .13 19% .20 55% .11 1.08 70% 42% 32% +3 -3 1.00 27% 1.3 .36 15% .32 67% .21
Dec
3		 Elon A+ A+ C- B 38% 0% 62% A+ A- C F F+ A A+ A- A+ D B+ A+ C- B+ 45% 2% 53% D- B C D+ C- F F+ D- F
1.35 75% 34% +7 +3 1.21 33% 0.8 .28 11% .49 77% .38 1.23 50% 0% 35% -3 +3 1.02 33% 1.1 .35 8% .38 76% .29
Dec
6		 Harvard B- A+ A+ F A+ 41% 11% 48% B- A+ D A+ B+ F A+ A A+ B- B D+ F+ C 35% 38% 27% A+ B- B- B B F A- A+ A+
1.16 83% 100% 24% +10 +1 1.25 26% 1.5 .39 23% .38 80% .31 1.01 53% 43% 40% +3 -3 1.02 23% 0.9 .20 13% .19 55% .10
Dec
18		 Manhattan D- C+ A C+ C 42% 8% 50% A- C+ C+ F+ D F B- F F B+ F C+ A C- 28% 30% 43% A- C+ F+ A- C- C+ C+ A+ B+
1.08 62% 50% 36% +4 +2 1.14 39% 0.9 .36 24% .27 36% .10 0.98 67% 38% 26% -3 -2 0.93 33% 0.9 .29 17% .28 69% .19
Dec
21		 Charleston Southern C C- D C+ C 38% 21% 41% C+ C+ F A+ B- C+ B- B+ B+ C D D+ A+ B 43% 8% 49% D B- A- D- C+ F A+ A+ A+
1.13 52% 33% 35% -3 0 0.96 20% 1.8 .35 11% .39 77% .30 1.02 63% 40% 26% -4 +2 0.98 23% 1.0 .23 12% .14 56% .08
Dec
31		 Mercer C- C B- A B- 45% 14% 41% B B B- F D- B- A+ F B+ C A+ D+ B- A- 32% 35% 33% A+ A C F D- F A+ D+ A+
1.10 57% 43% 43% +6 +1 1.16 36% 0.6 .22 16% .39 59% .23 1.07 39% 40% 32% -6 -2 0.84 33% 1.2 .40 10% .15 78% .12
Jan
3		 Western Carolina D- A+ D D+ C 27% 25% 48% D- C- D+ F D- B- D- F F D+ A+ B F D+ 40% 33% 27% A C F D F C- C+ A- B-
1.08 80% 36% 33% +5 -1 1.09 26% 0.8 .21 14% .28 47% .13 1.12 41% 33% 53% 0 -1 0.98 41% 1.1 .44 17% .27 63% .17
Jan
7		 Chattanooga C+ D+ F A- C- 45% 8% 47% A- C C- A B D C C+ C B A+ A- F C 27% 18% 55% C+ C F+ A+ C+ B- A+ C A+
1.14 55% 0% 39% -1 +2 1.04 31% 1.4 .44 16% .35 75% .26 0.98 40% 30% 40% -1 0 0.98 26% 0.7 .18 17% .14 75% .11
Jan
10		 VMI F C- A- D F+ 24% 15% 61% C- F+ A- C- B F A F C A+ A+ A A+ A+ 31% 18% 51% C+ A+ D C D+ A+ B- C+ B-
1.05 60% 50% 32% +1 0 1.02 49% 1.0 .49 30% .39 56% .22 0.73 29% 25% 22% -21 0 0.60 30% 0.9 .28 24% .26 69% .18
Jan
14		 Samford C C+ A+ F C 27% 24% 49% C C A F C- D+ D+ F+ D B C- A+ A+ B+ 46% 15% 38% F B- A- F C C- C- F F+
1.10 60% 69% 26% +2 -1 1.04 37% 0.7 .27 14% .27 69% .18 1.04 63% 25% 25% -5 +1 0.94 18% 1.3 .24 13% .38 78% .29
Jan
17		 Wofford D+ F A+ F D- 23% 26% 51% F F B+ A A D- C B- C D D- F B D- 44% 16% 40% C- D C+ F D- D A D- A-
1.10 45% 58% 25% -5 -2 0.89 37% 1.4 .51 19% .29 80% .23 1.16 64% 50% 30% +2 +1 1.08 27% 1.3 .33 13% .23 77% .18
Jan
21		 The Citadel D A C F D- 44% 9% 47% B D C- F F C C- A+ C+ D F A+ A+ B- 37% 10% 53% F+ C+ D F F F+ F F F
1.07 75% 40% 23% 0 +2 1.05 31% 0.6 .18 14% .27 81% .22 1.10 67% 20% 23% -7 +1 0.90 31% 1.3 .38 14% .50 77% .38
Jan
23		 UNC Greensboro A+ A F A+ A+ 36% 15% 49% B- A+ F A+ D+ A D- A+ C B- F A+ A+ C+ 40% 13% 47% F C B+ D- C+ D+ B- D+ C+
1.40 74% 25% 50% +16 +1 1.34 20% 1.4 .28 8% .20 92% .19 1.04 74% 17% 23% -4 +1 0.96 22% 1.1 .25 14% .33 72% .24
Jan
29		 Samford B- A+ A+ F A 37% 23% 40% B- A C+ A+ A+ F A+ C A D+ A- F A+ C+ 18% 38% 44% A+ B F C- F F C- A+ B
1.21 81% 70% 24% +10 0 1.21 29% 1.7 .50 22% .40 75% .30 1.13 50% 52% 25% -2 -4 0.91 36% 1.1 .39 6% .36 55% .20
Feb
1		 Chattanooga C- D+ A+ C+ C+ 50% 11% 39% A- B- D- A+ C+ F B B- B D+ A D- B B 25% 22% 53% B B F D F C+ C- C C-
1.14 55% 60% 35% +2 +2 1.09 26% 1.6 .41 18% .39 76% .30 1.06 46% 45% 30% -5 -1 0.90 36% 1.2 .42 17% .29 75% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 East Tennessee St. D A+ A+ D+ A 45% 9% 47% B+ A D D+ D F F F F B+ B- A F C+ 44% 25% 31% B C+ B+ A+ A+ D- D+ B C
0.98 76% 75% 32% +10 +2 1.26 25% 0.9 .21 29% .19 60% .12 1.03 54% 29% 41% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 12% .35 73% .25
Feb
8		 UNC Greensboro F D- A+ F F 59% 9% 33% A+ F+ D+ F+ D- F B+ B+ A- C- A+ F+ F D- 44% 19% 38% F+ F+ B+ A+ A+ D+ C+ C+ C+
1.02 52% 50% 27% -6 +3 0.96 27% 0.9 .24 17% .33 76% .25 1.06 33% 44% 56% +3 +1 1.08 23% 0.6 .14 14% .35 68% .24
Feb
11		 Mercer F+ F F D F 35% 9% 56% B F F+ B+ C- A D+ F D- B A+ D- B+ A+ 53% 14% 33% F A C A B+ F C- F D-
0.96 42% 20% 32% -9 +1 0.87 25% 1.1 .28 14% .23 62% .14 1.04 37% 43% 29% -13 +2 0.80 34% 0.8 .27 11% .35 86% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 4.6 8.7 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.8 15.4 2.0 21.2 3rd
4th 0.0 3.3 23.2 11.7 0.1 38.3 4th
5th 1.0 11.3 8.1 0.3 20.7 5th
6th 0.0 2.1 2.4 0.1 4.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 0.1 1.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.3 4.0 17.2 35.4 31.9 11.3 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 4.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 11.3% 26.4% 26.4% 13.7 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.3 8.3
11-7 31.9% 17.2% 17.2% 14.6 0.2 2.1 2.8 0.4 26.4
10-8 35.4% 15.0% 15.0% 15.1 0.0 0.8 3.3 1.2 30.1
9-9 17.2% 11.2% 11.2% 15.4 0.1 0.9 1.0 15.3
8-10 4.0% 5.3% 5.3% 15.8 0.1 0.2 3.8
7-11 0.3% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 14.7 84.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.0% 100.0% 13.7 1.7 31.5 58.4 8.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.4%