The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -12.3 347
Expected Predictive Rating -10.7 328
Pace 62.3 336
Improvement +4.8 24

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #323 D D D+ D C
Defense D #338 F+ D+ D B- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 307 53% 300 -4.4 323
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 219 35% 282 -1.4 256
Three Pointers 48% 47 31% 297 +1.3 134
1st FG Attempt 0.93 314 -4.4 316
Second Chance 27.3% 271 0.91 321 0.25 317
Turnovers 18.6% 290
Freethrows 0.27 286 68% 301 0.19 310
Total Offense -5.9 323

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 125 67% 352 -4.8 331
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 346 40% 271 +2.0 38
Three Pointers 45% 65 37% 317 -4.1 333
1st FG Attempt 1.16 356 -6.9 356
Second Chance 32.8% 278 1.06 239 0.35 263
Turnovers 14.3% 326
Freethrows 0.29 136 70% 73 0.20 104
Total Defense -6.4 338

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.1 200 +1.0 339
Shot Type Accuracy -4.3 319 +5.7 355
Possession Length 19.5 351 16.6 70
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 348 0.20 290
Improvement -1.2 #262 +6.0 #3

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 7% 23% 3%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Mercer (Home) - 20.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 30 - 80 - 11
Quad 47 - 118 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 129 @Boston College L 47 - 76 6% -11  21% 0 - 1 F -24 F -19 F D D- D- -7 C D+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 256 Charleston Southern L 86 - 96 35% -0  48% 0 - 2 F -18 B- +5 A+ F C+ F -23 F F F
 Fri, Nov 14 317 @West Georgia L 92 - 100 29% -8  5% 0 - 3 F+ -15 B +6 C+ D- A F -20 F F F
 Mon, Nov 24 283 Bellarmine L 58 - 70 41% -5  20% 0 - 4 F -22 F -19 F C F D+ -5 D+ C F
 Wed, Nov 26 298 Houston Christian L 65 - 72 44% -6  1% 0 - 5 F -18 D -5 F C+ B F -15 F F C-
 Sun, Nov 30 272 Presbyterian L 41 - 69 28% -19  0% 0 - 6 F -34 F -25 F D- F F -17 F F D-
 Thu, Dec 4 111 @Davidson L 63 - 79 5% -9  0% 0 - 7 D -9 D+ -3 B- D- F+ D- -8 C D+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 90 @South Carolina L 55 - 71 4% -5  13% 0 - 8 D+ -8 F -13 F F+ B B +5 A- C- C-
 Wed, Dec 17 156 @College of Charleston L 78 - 82 9% +2  52% 0 - 9 C -1 C+ +2 B- D+ D- C- -3 F A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 20 128 @Richmond L 56 - 80 6% -11  0% 0 - 10 F -19 F -14 C- F+ F D- -7 F B+ D-
 Tue, Dec 30 126 East Tennessee St. L 49 - 74 15% -13  8% 0 - 11 0 - 1 F -26 F -22 F C+ F D -7 D D- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 212 Wofford L 86 - 95 27% -8  5% 0 - 12 0 - 2 F+ -15 A- +10 B+ A+ F+ F -25 F B C
 Wed, Jan 7 171 @Mercer L 63 - 101 9% -21  0% 0 - 13 0 - 3 F -36 F+ -8 C- B+ F F -30 F F C+
 Sat, Jan 10 263 Western Carolina W 79 - 77 OT 36% -2  29% 1 - 13 1 - 3 D+ -7 D+ -3 F+ A- C D+ -4 C A- F
 Thu, Jan 15 302 @UNC Greensboro L 66 - 69 OT 24% +4  67% 1 - 14 1 - 4 D -8 F -13 F+ F F B +5 C- B D
 Sat, Jan 17 360 @VMI W 82 - 68 51% +10  92% 2 - 14 2 - 4 C +1 C +1 B- F D C+ +1 F+ B C-
 Wed, Jan 21 176 Furman W 77 - 75 OT 21% -6  19% 3 - 14 3 - 4 C- -2 C +1 D B C+ C- -3 C A F
 Fri, Jan 23 126 @East Tennessee St. L 55 - 84 6% -18  8% 3 - 15 3 - 5 F -24 F -13 F+ F A- F -13 F F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 360 VMI W 80 - 56 72% +12  87% 4 - 15 4 - 5 B- +5 C+ +3 A F B B +6 C A- C
 Sat, Jan 31 302 UNC Greensboro W 71 - 66 OT 45% +2  62% 5 - 15 5 - 5 D+ -6 F -10 D+ F A B +4 B- D+ B-
 Thu, Feb 5 194 @Samford L 64 - 78 11% -6  0% 5 - 16 5 - 6 D- -13 D- -8 D- B F+ D -7 F B+ B-
 Sat, Feb 7 282 @Chattanooga W 78 - 71 21% +2  81% 6 - 16 6 - 6 C+ +3 C+ +3 B- C+ C+ C +0 C F B-
 Wed, Feb 11 263 @Western Carolina L 49 - 87 18% -26  0% 6 - 17 6 - 7 F -41 F -24 F F+ F+ F -21 F F F
 Sat, Feb 14 171 Mercer L 70 - 79 21%
 Thu, Feb 19 194 Samford L 69 - 76 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 282 Chattanooga L 69 - 71 40%
 Wed, Feb 25 176 @Furman L 61 - 75 9%
 Sat, Feb 28 212 @Wofford L 67 - 79 12%
Totals 7 - 21 7 - 11 -12 D -6 D D D+ D -6 F+ D+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D D+ D D 34% 18% 48% C D D+ D D D+ D+ D D D F+ D+ D F+ 41% 14% 45% D- F+ D+ C- D+ D C+ B- B-
1.00 53% 35% 31% -4 0 0.93 27% 0.9 .25 19% .27 68% .19 1.18 67% 40% 37% +6 +1 1.16 33% 1.1 .35 14% .29 70% .19
Nov
6		 Boston College F F F F F 40% 10% 50% A- F F+ C- D D- A F C D- F F A+ C+ 33% 16% 51% D- C D C- D+ F F B+ F
0.71 42% 0% 21% -20 +1 0.65 20% 0.9 .17 18% .37 50% .19 1.15 71% 63% 19% -3 0 0.96 33% 1.0 .33 6% .45 61% .27
Nov
10		 Charleston Southern B- A A+ A A+ 35% 33% 33% D- A+ F F F C+ A+ D- B+ F D F F F 45% 7% 47% F+ F F D+ F F F+ F F
1.19 67% 53% 41% +11 -2 1.21 19% 0.7 .13 11% .47 67% .31 1.33 64% 50% 42% +10 +2 1.25 40% 0.9 .37 12% .33 76% .25
Nov
14		 West Georgia B C- A+ B+ C+ 52% 14% 33% C+ C+ C- F D- A D+ C D+ F F C- F F 48% 32% 20% F+ F F F F F F A- F
1.21 58% 56% 38% +4 +2 1.14 29% 0.7 .21 11% .31 71% .22 1.32 70% 39% 45% +10 -1 1.20 39% 1.3 .48 12% .40 67% .27
Nov
24		 Bellarmine F C+ F F F 38% 22% 40% C F A+ F C F B- D+ C+ D+ D+ A+ F D+ 43% 13% 43% C D+ B+ F C F C A+ A
0.97 65% 20% 17% -12 0 0.78 49% 0.8 .41 20% .33 69% .23 1.16 65% 17% 45% +8 +1 1.20 14% 1.5 .21 12% .30 56% .17
Nov
26		 Houston Christian D D F B F 30% 15% 55% D F C- B+ C+ B D- A+ C F F F B- F 38% 13% 49% D F D- F F C- C+ A B
1.11 57% 0% 38% -2 0 0.98 32% 1.2 .39 15% .22 91% .20 1.23 82% 50% 32% +9 +1 1.22 35% 1.1 .38 17% .27 62% .16
Nov
30		 Presbyterian F F C F F 28% 25% 48% F F D D D- F C F F F C F F F 33% 19% 48% C- F D- F F D- A+ A+ A+
0.76 18% 40% 26% -16 -1 0.68 25% 0.9 .22 20% .30 46% .14 1.27 57% 50% 45% +10 0 1.21 38% 1.6 .58 17% .20 56% .11
Dec
4		 Davidson D+ C+ A+ F B 33% 24% 43% C B- F+ C D- F+ C- F D D- B+ F+ F+ C+ 35% 16% 49% D+ C D+ C- D+ F F B+ D
0.99 60% 73% 25% +3 -1 1.07 21% 1.0 .21 22% .28 57% .16 1.24 50% 50% 40% +4 0 1.10 34% 1.1 .37 9% .36 62% .22
Dec
13		 South Carolina F C- C+ F F 42% 27% 31% C F D+ F F+ B A F C B D F+ A+ A+ 49% 8% 43% F A- D C+ C- C- D F+ D-
0.83 55% 38% 13% -11 -1 0.79 26% 0.6 .15 14% .35 55% .19 1.07 67% 50% 14% -7 +2 0.92 33% 1.0 .33 14% .37 86% .31
Dec
17		 College of Charleston C+ F+ D- A C+ 27% 17% 56% B- B- C- D+ D+ D- F+ F F+ C- F D+ C+ F 33% 12% 55% D- F A+ F A+ D+ F C- F
1.08 50% 30% 39% +1 0 1.03 29% 0.9 .26 17% .17 60% .10 1.14 86% 40% 30% +7 +1 1.17 10% 1.3 .14 15% .67 76% .51
Dec
20		 Richmond F F A- C- C- 31% 23% 46% C+ C- D F F+ F F F F D- F F B F 24% 22% 55% C- F C- A+ B+ D- C- A B-
0.87 47% 45% 32% -3 -1 0.94 26% 0.9 .24 25% .14 57% .08 1.24 100% 64% 32% +14 -1 1.27 28% 0.7 .19 12% .34 68% .23
Dec
30		 East Tennessee St. F B- F F F 24% 11% 64% C- F C+ B- C+ F C F D D C- B+ D- D+ 51% 13% 36% F+ D F C+ D- B- D F F+
0.78 64% 0% 24% -12 0 0.78 31% 1.0 .31 27% .28 62% .17 1.17 61% 33% 38% +3 +2 1.11 35% 1.1 .38 17% .36 84% .31
Jan
3		 Wofford A- C F A+ A- 43% 14% 43% C+ B+ A A+ A+ F+ C A+ B F C- B F F 38% 6% 56% D- F F A+ B C D+ D+ D
1.29 57% 29% 48% +7 +1 1.18 41% 1.7 .70 20% .30 88% .26 1.43 58% 33% 61% +22 +2 1.50 38% 0.5 .21 15% .35 75% .27
Jan
7		 Mercer F+ F A B D+ 34% 10% 56% B- C- C A+ B+ F C C+ C F D F F F 35% 12% 53% D- F F F F C+ D+ F F
0.96 43% 50% 39% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.2 .39 27% .25 75% .19 1.54 65% 50% 54% +20 +1 1.43 48% 1.3 .60 17% .37 90% .33
Jan
10		 Western Carolina D+ D C D F+ 35% 20% 45% C- F+ A- B A- C A+ A- A+ D+ D B B C 35% 15% 50% C- C B+ B+ A- F B- A- B
1.13 53% 40% 32% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.1 .42 16% .47 82% .39 1.10 62% 33% 30% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.8 .24 11% .26 63% .16
Jan
15		 UNC Greensboro F F D C+ F+ 28% 17% 56% C- F+ F F F F F+ A+ D+ B F C+ A+ C- 44% 27% 29% C- C- F A+ B D B A+ A+
0.96 47% 33% 37% -2 0 0.98 22% 0.8 .16 17% .19 82% .16 1.01 70% 36% 20% -2 0 0.98 36% 0.6 .21 13% .32 47% .15
Jan
17		 VMI C F A+ A+ C+ 47% 9% 44% A B- F+ F F D A+ A+ A+ C+ C+ A+ D+ D- 47% 2% 51% F F+ A D+ B C- F A- F
1.21 50% 75% 47% +9 +2 1.23 32% 0.5 .16 19% .58 84% .49 1.00 52% 0% 35% -3 +3 1.02 18% 1.0 .18 16% .49 64% .32
Jan
21		 Furman C A- F F D- 37% 10% 53% B+ D C A B C+ A+ B A+ C- F B- A+ C+ 44% 9% 47% D- C C- A+ A F C+ F D
1.10 67% 20% 23% -7 +1 0.90 31% 1.3 .38 14% .50 77% .38 1.07 75% 40% 23% 0 +2 1.05 31% 0.6 .18 14% .27 81% .22
Jan
23		 East Tennessee St. F F F A+ F+ 31% 16% 53% D+ F+ F D- F A- C- F F F F F D- F 37% 8% 55% D- F D+ F F D- C+ A- B
0.86 40% 0% 42% -5 0 0.92 13% 0.8 .10 16% .28 40% .11 1.31 78% 50% 37% +11 +1 1.27 30% 1.5 .44 12% .30 71% .21
Jan
29		 VMI C+ A+ F A+ A+ 13% 15% 73% D A C- F F B D+ F F B B- A+ C C 36% 14% 50% D+ C A- A A- C A F B+
1.27 83% 29% 49% +18 -1 1.35 38% 0.4 .16 14% .28 47% .13 0.89 50% 14% 32% -8 +1 0.88 19% 0.7 .14 17% .19 80% .15
Jan
31		 UNC Greensboro F B D+ C+ C- 23% 26% 51% F+ D+ D F F A B+ F+ B- B F A+ A+ B 35% 17% 48% D- B- C- D+ D+ B- D A+ B-
1.05 67% 36% 37% +4 -2 1.06 26% 0.2 .05 9% .32 65% .21 0.97 71% 25% 22% -6 0 0.90 29% 1.1 .32 18% .41 57% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Samford D- C A+ F D- 30% 34% 36% D D- B+ C- B F+ C- F F D D+ F+ F F 30% 24% 46% B F D A+ B+ B- F D+ F
0.99 57% 56% 18% -3 -2 0.91 34% 1.1 .37 17% .28 47% .13 1.20 64% 45% 48% +13 -1 1.26 28% 0.6 .17 15% .47 69% .33
Feb
7		 Chattanooga C+ A+ B- F B- 40% 10% 50% B+ B- F A+ C+ C+ F A+ F C D- D- A C 31% 20% 48% C+ C F D- F B- A+ C A+
1.15 76% 40% 27% +2 +2 1.10 21% 1.8 .39 13% .22 85% .19 1.04 65% 45% 27% -1 0 0.98 29% 1.2 .35 18% .14 75% .11
Feb
11		 Western Carolina F F F F F 36% 16% 49% C+ F F+ F+ F+ F+ D- A+ C F D- A+ F F 53% 4% 43% F F F+ F F F A A+ A+
0.78 44% 14% 23% -17 0 0.69 21% 0.9 .18 19% .28 93% .26 1.39 63% 0% 45% +9 +3 1.25 40% 1.6 .63 13% .20 55% .11



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 0.6 1.4 4th
5th 0.9 2.8 0.1 3.8 5th
6th 1.1 8.8 2.1 11.9 6th
7th 0.2 14.8 10.1 0.3 25.4 7th
8th 8.6 22.6 2.1 33.3 8th
9th 20.4 3.4 23.9 9th
10th 10th
Total 29.3 41.9 21.9 6.0 0.9 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 0.9% 0.9
9-9 6.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.9
8-10 21.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 21.8
7-11 41.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.1 41.8
6-12 29.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 29.3
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 21.8%