Samford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.3 194
Expected Predictive Rating -3.3 219
Pace 67.7 210
Improvement +6.5 9

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #147 C- D A- B- C-
Defense D+ #268 C C+ F+ C A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 305 61% 93 -1.4 234
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 185 37% 194 -0.3 196
Three Pointers 46% 85 31% 279 +0.7 156
1st FG Attempt 1.00 206 -1.0 207
Second Chance 24.0% 342 1.02 184 0.24 324
Turnovers 13.6% 20
Freethrows 0.35 40 67% 330 0.24 120
Total Offense +0.8 147

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 227 56% 131 +1.5 124
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 10 43% 329 -5.2 364
Three Pointers 33% 355 36% 277 +2.9 68
1st FG Attempt 1.03 205 -0.7 206
Second Chance 27.1% 67 1.11 299 0.30 150
Turnovers 13.0% 350
Freethrows 0.29 148 75% 328 0.22 181
Total Defense -3.0 268

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.3 229 -1.3 22
Shot Type Accuracy -0.7 197 +2.0 258
Possession Length 17.5 195 17.4 202
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 330 0.16 124
Improvement +4.0 #20 +2.5 #58

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10% 13% 9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.3 14.8 15.5
.500 or above 78% 96% 72%
.500 or above in Conference 95% 100% 94%
Conference Champion 0% 2% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round10% 13% 9%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Away) - 24.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 63 - 10
Quad 413 - 516 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 174 @Tulane L 72 - 85 34% -6  16% 0 - 1 D -11 C+ +3 C- B+ C+ F -15 F A+ D
 Fri, Nov 7 358 South Carolina St. W 82 - 72 92% +1  44% 1 - 1 D -8 D+ -3 D- D- B+ D+ -5 C- D D-
 Wed, Nov 12 309 @Texas Southern W 93 - 90 OT 64% -1  30% 2 - 1 C- -3 B +6 D C+ B+ F+ -9 F A F
 Fri, Nov 14 19 @Arkansas L 75 - 79 3% -8  1% 2 - 2 A- +17 B- +5 B- D- A+ A +12 A A+ C
 Sun, Nov 16 190 @Central Arkansas W 84 - 77 OT 37% -3  17% 3 - 2 B +8 C+ +3 C F A+ B +4 B- B+ D+
 Wed, Nov 19 243 Florida Gulf Coast L 62 - 77 70% -9  6% 3 - 3 F -23 F -17 F F+ B D -6 D- F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 167 @New Mexico St. L 72 - 81 32% -10  4% 3 - 4 D+ -6 B +6 D- C A+ F -13 F F F
 Tue, Nov 25 276 Georgia St. W 78 - 63 66% +7  90% 4 - 4 B +9 C +1 C B+ F+ B+ +8 A+ D D
 Wed, Nov 26 91 Utah Valley L 45 - 89 23% -23  1% 4 - 5 F -39 F -29 F F D+ D- -8 D- C+ D
 Fri, Dec 5 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 57 - 83 7% -7  40% 4 - 6 D- -12 F -13 F F B+ C+ +1 C- C B-
 Sun, Dec 7 159 Cornell W 93 - 90 54% -3  23% 5 - 6 C -0 C +1 B- D+ C+ C -1 A+ D F
 Thu, Jan 1 360 @VMI W 78 - 58 83% +4  46% 6 - 6 1 - 0 B- +7 C- -2 B- F A A +10 B+ B+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 302 @UNC Greensboro L 82 - 89 61% -8  1% 6 - 7 1 - 1 D- -12 B+ +7 C C+ A- F -20 F+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 263 Western Carolina W 82 - 77 73% -6  10% 7 - 7 2 - 1 C- -4 C+ +3 C C A D -7 A- F D
 Sat, Jan 10 282 @Chattanooga L 79 - 88 57% -14  1% 7 - 8 2 - 2 D- -13 C- -2 B- F B+ F+ -11 D C+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 176 Furman L 73 - 77 57% -2  32% 7 - 9 2 - 3 D -8 D+ -4 C- D- B D+ -4 C+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 126 East Tennessee St. L 75 - 76 45% -5  2% 7 - 10 2 - 4 C- -2 A- +11 B+ D A+ F -13 F+ C F
 Wed, Jan 21 212 @Wofford L 78 - 88 41% -1  28% 7 - 11 2 - 5 D -10 B +6 B- C- A- F -16 F C- F+
 Sat, Jan 24 282 Chattanooga W 75 - 64 77% +1  52% 8 - 11 3 - 5 C +1 B- +4 D+ F+ A+ C- -2 C- C F
 Thu, Jan 29 176 @Furman L 73 - 78 34% -4  8% 8 - 12 3 - 6 C- -3 B +6 D+ B A+ F+ -9 F+ F B-
 Sun, Feb 1 263 @Western Carolina W 88 - 74 52% +8  89% 9 - 12 4 - 6 B+ +11 B +6 B C D+ B +5 A- A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 347 The Citadel W 78 - 64 89% +6  96% 10 - 12 5 - 6 C -1 C +1 B+ F D+ C -1 C+ F D+
 Sat, Feb 7 171 Mercer W 69 - 49 55% +15  94% 11 - 12 6 - 6 A- +16 D -5 D+ F+ B A+ +23 A+ A+ D
 Wed, Feb 11 212 Wofford W 97 - 80 64% +13  95% 12 - 12 7 - 6 B +11 A +12 A+ B+ D C- -2 C B+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 126 @East Tennessee St. L 71 - 78 25%
 Thu, Feb 19 347 @The Citadel W 76 - 69 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 171 @Mercer L 77 - 82 33%
 Thu, Feb 26 360 VMI W 85 - 69 93%
 Sat, Feb 28 302 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 73 79%
Totals 15 - 14 10 - 8 -2 C +1 C- D A- D+ -3 C C+ F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B- C- D+ C- 34% 20% 46% C- C- D- C D A- B D- B- D+ C+ D- D+ D+ 37% 30% 33% A- C B D+ C+ F+ C+ D C
1.10 61% 37% 31% -1 0 1.00 24% 1.0 .24 14% .35 67% .24 1.13 56% 43% 36% +2 -1 1.03 27% 1.1 .30 13% .29 75% .27
Nov
3		 Tulane C+ D+ F A- C 25% 27% 48% F+ C- B- B+ B+ C+ C F D F D- F F F 29% 29% 41% A F A+ B+ A+ D A+ F A+
1.11 54% 29% 40% +1 -2 1.00 37% 1.1 .41 17% .31 59% .18 1.31 67% 60% 52% +20 -2 1.39 9% 1.0 .09 12% .23 92% .21
Nov
7		 South Carolina St. D+ F F B F+ 48% 4% 48% B D- F A D- B+ A+ F A+ D+ A+ F B- D+ 21% 42% 37% A- C- A+ F D D- C+ F D-
1.14 50% 0% 36% -4 +3 1.00 26% 1.4 .38 14% .60 65% .39 1.00 36% 50% 32% -1 -4 0.92 19% 1.8 .34 18% .30 83% .25
Nov
12		 Texas Southern B F A+ D+ D 37% 8% 55% B- D F A+ C+ B+ A+ D A+ F+ C- B+ F F 39% 36% 25% B+ F A+ C+ A F C B C+
1.20 47% 75% 32% -2 +2 1.00 20% 2.0 .40 13% .65 68% .44 1.16 58% 32% 67% +10 -2 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 8% .29 67% .20
Nov
14		 Arkansas B- C- D+ C B- 39% 20% 41% C+ B- D D- D- A+ F A+ D+ A A D- D- B+ 31% 41% 28% A+ A A+ A+ A+ C D+ D+ D+
1.04 54% 33% 32% -4 0 0.95 24% 1.1 .26 11% .16 90% .14 1.10 53% 45% 40% +4 -3 1.04 24% 0.8 .19 12% .35 77% .27
Nov
16		 Central Arkansas C+ A+ F C C+ 22% 14% 64% D+ C D- F F A+ C- C C- B D A+ C B- 45% 24% 31% C+ B- D A+ B+ D+ F A+ C-
1.12 85% 13% 34% +3 0 1.07 21% 0.9 .19 9% .26 72% .19 1.02 65% 14% 33% -3 0 0.97 30% 0.7 .21 15% .36 57% .20
Nov
19		 Florida Gulf Coast F F A+ F F 36% 22% 42% D+ F C+ F F+ B B F D- D A- F D+ F+ 38% 40% 23% A- D- F C- F A+ C- B+ C
0.90 39% 55% 24% -10 0 0.82 32% 0.7 .21 15% .41 54% .22 1.12 50% 63% 36% +8 -3 1.13 42% 1.1 .45 25% .29 67% .19
Nov
21		 New Mexico St. B B B F D- 27% 20% 53% C D- D A+ C A+ D+ C D+ F F+ D+ F F 36% 34% 30% B- F C F F F C D+ C-
1.16 64% 40% 22% -7 -1 0.86 26% 1.4 .37 5% .35 76% .27 1.30 67% 41% 47% +10 -2 1.18 32% 1.3 .43 10% .28 75% .21
Nov
25		 Georgia St. C B+ F D- C- 42% 12% 47% B C C- A+ B+ F+ A+ D A+ B+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 27% 14% 59% F A+ D- C D D F F F
1.11 67% 20% 30% -1 +1 1.02 31% 1.3 .41 20% .61 68% .41 0.90 29% 29% 17% -25 0 0.53 33% 1.1 .35 14% .45 89% .40
Nov
26		 Utah Valley F F F F F 34% 21% 45% C- F C F F D+ F F F D- D+ C F D- 64% 14% 21% D D- B+ D C+ D B+ F C+
0.61 22% 27% 25% -20 0 0.60 30% 0.6 .18 22% .21 42% .09 1.21 64% 38% 42% +6 +3 1.20 32% 1.2 .39 18% .25 80% .20
Dec
5		 Virginia Commonwealth F A- F F F 38% 25% 37% D+ F F F F B+ C+ D C C+ A D+ F D+ 40% 13% 46% C+ C- F+ A- C B- C A+ A-
0.81 65% 23% 11% -14 -1 0.73 20% 0.7 .14 14% .32 68% .22 1.18 48% 43% 46% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.9 .38 17% .38 59% .22
Dec
7		 Cornell C A+ B+ F B- 41% 22% 37% C- B- D- A- D+ C+ A+ C- A+ C A+ D- B- A+ 27% 23% 50% A+ A+ F+ C+ D F C+ B+ B-
1.21 86% 45% 26% +9 0 1.20 24% 1.4 .33 14% .50 70% .35 1.17 44% 47% 33% -2 -1 0.95 37% 1.1 .41 12% .28 68% .19
Jan
1		 VMI C- A+ F A B 31% 25% 44% D B- F F F A A+ F B+ A F C+ A+ B- 17% 31% 52% A+ B+ B- A B+ D A- D- B+
1.16 93% 17% 43% +12 -1 1.23 26% 0.3 .08 12% .46 59% .27 0.86 67% 35% 21% -9 -3 0.78 24% 0.7 .17 15% .21 75% .16
Jan
3		 UNC Greensboro B+ A+ F F+ C- 31% 14% 55% C+ C C B C+ A- A+ F B+ F A C F F 32% 44% 24% A+ F+ C- F F F F D F
1.26 87% 29% 30% +4 0 1.10 31% 1.2 .36 9% .40 58% .24 1.36 44% 36% 67% +7 -3 1.08 29% 1.4 .40 3% .47 73% .35
Jan
7		 Western Carolina C+ D B A- C 37% 21% 42% C C D+ B- C A C+ A+ A- D A- A+ F A 52% 28% 20% C+ A- F+ F F D F F F
1.22 53% 45% 41% +4 0 1.10 26% 1.1 .29 10% .35 90% .31 1.14 46% 21% 40% -9 0 0.84 41% 1.5 .59 15% .44 88% .38
Jan
10		 Chattanooga C- A+ F D+ B- 42% 17% 42% C+ B- F C+ F B+ A+ F A F+ B- D+ F+ D+ 50% 20% 30% D- D A+ F C+ F D- F F
1.08 77% 11% 32% +2 +1 1.08 14% 1.2 .17 11% .55 61% .34 1.20 53% 42% 39% +1 +1 1.05 9% 2.0 .18 4% .34 92% .31
Jan
14		 Furman D+ B F F D 46% 15% 38% B+ C- F A+ D- B A+ A- A+ D+ C+ F A C- 27% 24% 49% A+ C+ F A C+ F C+ C- C
1.04 63% 25% 25% -5 +1 0.94 18% 1.3 .24 13% .38 78% .29 1.10 60% 69% 26% +2 -1 1.04 37% 0.7 .27 14% .27 69% .18
Jan
17		 East Tennessee St. A- F+ A+ A+ A- 24% 16% 60% D B+ F A D A+ D A+ C- F F C F F 31% 44% 24% A+ F+ A+ F C F C F D-
1.25 50% 50% 43% +9 0 1.18 19% 1.2 .22 10% .24 85% .20 1.26 79% 40% 45% +12 -4 1.18 17% 1.8 .30 10% .31 94% .30
Jan
21		 Wofford B A- A+ F+ B- 41% 12% 47% C+ B- D B C- A- D- C+ D F F F F F 55% 19% 26% D+ F A+ F C- F+ F D+ F
1.19 67% 67% 29% +4 +1 1.12 27% 1.3 .33 12% .24 79% .19 1.34 69% 56% 50% +16 +1 1.36 14% 2.0 .29 11% .41 75% .31
Jan
24		 Chattanooga B- F A+ D- D- 40% 4% 56% A- D+ F+ D+ F+ A+ A+ F A+ C- A D D C- 24% 20% 56% B- C- B+ F C F F A D-
1.21 47% 100% 30% -5 +2 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 6% .62 64% .40 1.03 45% 44% 36% 0 -1 1.00 15% 1.4 .21 11% .38 67% .25
Jan
29		 Furman B D A+ F C 18% 38% 44% F D+ B C+ B A+ A+ F B- F+ F F A+ F 37% 23% 40% A- F+ C F F B- F F F
1.13 50% 52% 25% -2 -4 0.91 36% 1.1 .39 6% .36 55% .20 1.21 81% 70% 24% +10 0 1.21 29% 1.7 .50 22% .40 75% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Western Carolina B A+ F B B 36% 11% 52% B B C C- C D+ A+ D+ A+ B B B A A- 35% 26% 39% B+ A- A+ A- A+ F F F+ F
1.21 75% 20% 39% +8 +1 1.20 30% 1.0 .30 17% .68 73% .50 1.02 50% 33% 27% -8 -1 0.84 23% 0.8 .18 10% .37 75% .28
Feb
5		 The Citadel C C+ B+ A+ A- 30% 24% 46% F B+ D F F D+ A+ C- A+ C C- F A+ C- 30% 34% 36% A+ C+ F F+ F D+ C A+ A-
1.20 64% 45% 48% +13 -1 1.26 28% 0.6 .17 15% .47 69% .33 0.99 57% 56% 18% -3 -2 0.91 34% 1.1 .37 17% .28 47% .13
Feb
7		 Mercer D C A D- C- 34% 26% 40% D D+ F A+ F+ B A+ C+ A A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 33% 40% 27% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D B- C- B-
1.05 56% 50% 32% +1 -1 1.02 13% 1.5 .20 15% .36 75% .27 0.74 35% 29% 21% -16 -3 0.63 22% 0.4 .09 14% .30 76% .23
Feb
11		 Wofford A A+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 18% 47% D+ A+ F+ A+ B+ D A- D- B C- C+ D- C- D 32% 30% 38% A+ C A+ F B+ F D+ B+ C
1.33 78% 56% 50% +21 0 1.45 23% 2.0 .45 18% .37 73% .27 1.10 53% 44% 35% +1 -2 1.00 11% 1.8 .19 5% .35 67% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 2.9 3.5 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 4.2 14.7 1.6 20.5 3rd
4th 0.0 3.1 22.3 8.0 33.4 4th
5th 0.8 13.4 14.5 0.6 29.3 5th
6th 0.0 2.5 5.2 0.5 8.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 0.1 1.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.3 4.6 21.8 41.6 26.2 5.5 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 8.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 5.5% 18.4% 18.4% 14.1 0.1 0.6 0.3 4.5
11-7 26.2% 13.8% 13.8% 15.0 0.7 2.2 0.7 22.6
10-8 41.6% 9.3% 9.3% 15.5 0.0 1.8 2.1 37.7
9-9 21.8% 7.9% 7.9% 15.8 0.4 1.3 20.1
8-10 4.6% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 4.4
7-11 0.3% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 15.3 89.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 14.1 13.9 60.4 25.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7%