Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -0.7 169
Results Rating -0.5 164
Consistency 0.17 263
Pace 69.3 157
Improvement +5.1 30

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 162 C C- C+ D C+
Defense C 204 D C B B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 295 C+ 61% 104 -1.3 234
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 286 D- 32% 342 -3.0 316
Three Pointers 50% 26 C 34% 182 +4.4 44
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 131 C -0.2 170
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 160
Second Chance D+ 27.2% 266 C+ 1.06 128 C- 0.29 233
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.9% 127
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 181
Turnovers C+ 16.1% 141
Freethrows D 0.27 284 D+ 70% 255 D 0.19 301
Total Offense C +0.0 162

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 171 C 10.7% 160
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 157 C- 6.0% 254
Three Pointers C+ 86% 131 C 1.0% 215
Total B- 61% 71 C+ 5.1% 124


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 312 D 63% 304 -1.4 122
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 361 C+ 37% 126 -3.2 4
Three Pointers 54% 2 D+ 36% 269 +8.1 363
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.7 291 D+ +2.7 286
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 290
Second Chance B- 28.0% 92 D 1.13 312 C 0.32 213
Turnovers from Steals B+ 12.1% 26
Other Turnovers C- 7.1% 204
Turnovers B 19.2% 46
Freethrows B- 0.28 93 C- 73% 228 B- 0.20 107
Total Defense C -0.8 204

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 311 D 7.4% 318
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 33% 309 C+ 6.1% 101
Three Pointers D- 89% 330 D 0.2% 336
Total F 68% 356 D- 3.3% 339

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 178 17.0 116
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 127 0.20 295
Consistency 0.15 350 0.11 97
Improvement +5.4 6 -0.4 207

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 184 172 156
Results Rating Rank 196 172 131
Conference Record 15 - 3 15 - 3 15 - 3
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29% 36% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.4 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round29% 36% 0%
Second Round0% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 33 - 24 - 6
Quad 416 - 520 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 27 @North Carolina L 54 - 94 5% -24  0% 0 - 1 F -22 F -17 F B F C -1 C- F B+
 Tue, Nov 11 17 @Arkansas L 56 - 93 3% -16  0% 0 - 2 F+ -15 F -16 F C- A+ B- +2 C- A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 16 191 Samford L 77 - 84 OT 66% +3  62% 0 - 3 D- -12 D- -8 D+ D- D+ D+ -4 D B+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 136 @North Texas L 56 - 74 31% -5  17% 0 - 4 D- -14 F -12 D+ F F C- -2 B- B D
 Sun, Nov 23 173 Eastern Washington W 92 - 65 62% +20  98% 1 - 4 A +23 A- +9 A+ F C A+ +13 A- C A+
 Tue, Nov 25 321 Eastern Illinois W 81 - 60 87% +16  96% 2 - 4 B- +8 A- +11 A A+ C C -1 D C- C+
 Sat, Nov 29 140 @East Tennessee St. L 57 - 80 32% -10  7% 2 - 5 F -19 F -18 F D+ C+ C -0 F A+ D
 Wed, Dec 3 301 Arkansas Little Rock W 85 - 47 84% +29  96% 3 - 5 A+ +27 C+ +2 B+ D- D A+ +23 A+ B A+
 Sun, Dec 7 306 @East Texas A&M L 68 - 75 68% -1  30% 3 - 6 D- -13 F -12 C- F C+ C -0 B+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 18 @Vanderbilt L 72 - 83 3% -15  0% 3 - 7 B +10 C +0 C- C+ A- A +11 A+ F A
 Sun, Dec 21 41 @SMU L 82 - 99 7% -11  0% 3 - 8 C -1 A- +10 A A- D- F -11 D- F B
 Thu, Jan 1 264 Florida Gulf Coast W 85 - 83 78% -3  21% 4 - 8 1 - 0 D+ -7 A +13 B A A+ F -20 F D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 309 Stetson W 93 - 73 85% +13  88% 5 - 8 2 - 0 B- +8 A +12 B+ A D+ D+ -4 F D+ B+
 Thu, Jan 8 285 @Bellarmine L 78 - 84 OT 62% +0  43% 5 - 9 2 - 1 D -10 F -12 F C- B+ B- +2 D C- C
 Sat, Jan 10 294 @Eastern Kentucky L 75 - 79 OT 66% -1  35% 5 - 10 2 - 2 D -9 D- -8 C+ F F+ C -1 F C C+
 Thu, Jan 15 293 Jacksonville W 62 - 60 83% -5  19% 6 - 10 3 - 2 D -9 D- -7 C- F D C- -2 A+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 340 North Florida W 98 - 69 91% +23  95% 7 - 10 4 - 2 B+ +14 A- +10 B+ C B B- +3 C- A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 22 303 @West Georgia W 86 - 65 68% +9  68% 8 - 10 5 - 2 A- +15 A- +11 A+ F B B +5 D F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 204 @Queens W 100 - 90 45% -1  35% 9 - 10 6 - 2 B +11 A +14 A C- B+ D+ -4 F A C-
 Sat, Jan 31 294 Eastern Kentucky W 90 - 81 83% +8  98% 10 - 10 7 - 2 C- -2 C- -2 C D- A+ C -1 F+ A+ B
 Wed, Feb 4 342 North Alabama W 81 - 60 91% +7  81% 11 - 10 8 - 2 B- +5 C+ +2 B D+ C- B +4 C+ B+ C+
 Sat, Feb 7 197 @Lipscomb W 86 - 78 44% +9  98% 12 - 10 9 - 2 B +9 B+ +8 C B+ C+ C +0 F+ D+ A-
 Mon, Feb 9 342 @North Alabama W 72 - 65 80% -5  10% 13 - 10 10 - 2 C- -3 D -5 F+ C+ F B- +3 F C- A+
 Wed, Feb 11 285 Bellarmine W 84 - 76 81% -2  36% 14 - 10 11 - 2 C- -2 C +1 D+ D+ A+ C- -3 F C+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 303 West Georgia W 79 - 62 84% +9  97% 15 - 10 12 - 2 B- +5 C- -1 D+ C B- B+ +7 D+ B A-
 Thu, Feb 19 309 @Stetson W 88 - 76 70% +15  95% 16 - 10 13 - 2 B- +6 A +13 B+ C C- D -6 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 21 264 @Florida Gulf Coast L 71 - 75 OT 58% +1  53% 16 - 11 13 - 3 D+ -7 D- -8 F B C+ C+ +1 B+ D- F
 Wed, Feb 25 176 @Austin Peay W 93 - 88 40% -5  13% 17 - 11 14 - 3 B- +7 A+ +22 A+ A A F -15 F C A+
 Sat, Feb 28 204 Queens W 84 - 79 67% +8  98% 18 - 11 15 - 3 C -0 C- -0 D D+ C+ C +0 C- A+ C
 Fri, Mar 6 285 Bellarmine W 83 - 77 72%
Totals 19 - 11 15 - 3 -1 C +0 D C C+ C -1 C D+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ D- C C 35% 28% 50% C+ C D+ C+ C- C+ D D+ D C D C+ D+ D+ 33% 13% 54% D+ D B- D C B B- C- B-
1.09 61% 32% 34% 0 0 1.03 27% 1.1 .29 16% .27 70% .19 1.10 63% 37% 36% +3 +1 1.09 28% 1.1 .32 19% .28 73% .20
Nov
3		 North Carolina F F F D F 24% 29% 47% D+ F C- A+ B F D D D C F A+ B- C 48% 12% 40% F+ C- D F F B+ C F D-
0.72 38% 13% 31% -14 -2 0.69 23% 1.2 .28 23% .15 67% .10 1.25 80% 0% 33% +6 +2 1.17 38% 1.5 .56 16% .35 82% .28
Nov
11		 Arkansas F C+ F F F 21% 12% 67% C F F+ A+ C- A+ A- C- B+ B- F B D C- 29% 16% 55% B- C- A+ C+ A+ C- C F+ D+
0.75 58% 29% 8% -27 0 0.47 20% 1.6 .31 11% .32 67% .21 1.25 81% 33% 39% +10 0 1.21 24% 1.3 .30 11% .33 82% .27
Nov
16		 Samford D- B+ F C- D- 45% 24% 31% B+ D+ B- F D- D+ A- F C- D+ F A+ C- D 22% 14% 64% C D B- A B+ F A D A-
1.02 65% 14% 33% -3 0 0.97 30% 0.7 .21 15% .36 57% .20 1.12 85% 13% 34% +3 0 1.07 21% 0.9 .19 9% .26 72% .19
Nov
20		 North Texas F D- F C D 37% 16% 47% B D+ C F F F A+ F A+ C- F A+ A+ B- 43% 25% 32% B+ B- B- B B D F F F
0.82 50% 17% 33% -7 +1 0.89 33% 0.5 .15 28% .64 56% .36 1.08 74% 18% 14% -8 0 0.86 31% 0.9 .29 15% .55 84% .46
Nov
23		 Eastern Washington A- B+ F A+ A+ 43% 4% 53% A- A+ D+ F F C F F F A+ A A+ C+ A 27% 10% 63% D+ A- D- B+ C A+ B B+ B+
1.28 65% 0% 54% +17 +3 1.42 30% 0.8 .24 17% .23 64% .15 0.90 46% 20% 33% -6 +1 0.92 36% 1.0 .36 31% .26 69% .18
Nov
25		 Eastern Illinois A- A+ F B+ A 36% 6% 57% B A C A+ A+ C F+ F F C F C+ A+ D 33% 25% 42% D+ D A+ F C- C+ B F C-
1.28 82% 0% 37% +9 +2 1.23 35% 1.8 .62 19% .25 62% .16 0.95 69% 33% 25% -3 -1 0.94 17% 1.6 .28 19% .23 92% .21
Nov
29		 East Tennessee St. F F F F+ F 17% 13% 70% D F F A+ D+ C+ F C+ F C F C F F 35% 9% 56% D F A+ B+ A+ D B+ A+ A+
0.79 44% 14% 29% -11 -1 0.80 13% 1.8 .24 18% .14 75% .10 1.12 74% 40% 40% +11 +1 1.26 13% 1.0 .13 14% .26 50% .13
Dec
3		 Arkansas Little Rock C+ A B B 33% 0% 67% B+ B+ C F D- D D- C D A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 37% 24% 39% F+ A+ B B B A+ B+ A+ A+
1.19 72% 39% +10 +2 1.26 36% 0.7 .25 20% .24 71% .17 0.66 44% 17% 26% -15 -1 0.71 26% 0.9 .24 29% .18 22% .04
Dec
7		 East Texas A&M F B F F D- 61% 4% 35% A+ C- F D- F C+ F F F C D- A+ A+ A- 29% 10% 60% D+ B+ B+ F F C+ F F F
0.91 63% 0% 25% -3 +4 1.04 11% 1.0 .11 16% .24 33% .08 1.01 64% 20% 24% -9 +1 0.85 19% 2.1 .42 19% .41 76% .31
Dec
13		 Vanderbilt C B- F D C- 22% 22% 56% C- C- D+ A+ C+ A- A D B+ A B+ F A+ A+ 31% 6% 63% D- A+ C F F A D+ D D
0.96 58% 25% 30% -6 -1 0.87 23% 1.2 .28 16% .43 70% .30 1.10 56% 67% 24% -8 +1 0.88 33% 1.6 .54 17% .35 82% .29
Dec
21		 SMU A- D C A+ A 31% 27% 42% C- A B A A- D- B C- B- F F F B+ D 36% 12% 53% F D- F F F B A+ D- A+
1.16 50% 36% 50% +7 -1 1.13 34% 1.2 .40 21% .31 71% .22 1.41 86% 71% 32% +12 +1 1.29 55% 1.3 .72 17% .17 80% .14
Jan
1		 Florida Gulf Coast A B+ F A+ B+ 37% 20% 43% D+ B B A+ A A+ C B+ B- F F C+ F F 27% 16% 57% D- F A+ F D+ D+ B F D+
1.33 67% 30% 43% +7 0 1.16 34% 1.4 .47 11% .35 80% .28 1.29 79% 38% 45% +15 0 1.31 19% 1.8 .35 16% .22 92% .20
Jan
3		 Stetson A A+ F B+ B+ 40% 8% 52% B+ B+ A B- A D+ A+ B+ A+ D+ D F F+ F 24% 13% 62% C- F D- C+ D+ B+ F B- F
1.37 80% 0% 38% +9 +2 1.24 42% 1.2 .52 16% .40 78% .32 1.07 64% 50% 39% +8 0 1.18 30% 1.0 .30 22% .40 67% .26
Jan
8		 Bellarmine F F F F F 25% 14% 61% C F D+ C+ C- B+ F+ A D B- F D+ D+ D- 34% 9% 57% C+ D B+ F C- C A- A A
1.05 47% 25% 28% -10 0 0.81 32% 1.2 .38 12% .25 81% .20 1.13 74% 40% 38% +8 +1 1.21 16% 1.6 .26 16% .23 71% .16
Jan
10		 Eastern Kentucky D- D A+ B- C 34% 15% 51% B- C+ C- F F F+ F C F+ C D A+ F F 15% 11% 75% D F B D- C C+ A+ A+ A+
1.06 56% 75% 37% +7 0 1.17 32% 0.3 .11 18% .26 73% .19 1.12 63% 17% 41% +7 0 1.15 28% 1.2 .33 18% .12 57% .07
Jan
15		 Jacksonville D- B- A+ D- C 43% 25% 33% D C- C+ F F D B+ C+ B+ C- A+ F A+ A+ 34% 13% 53% D A+ F C+ F+ F D D- D-
1.05 65% 50% 31% +4 0 1.10 31% 0.5 .16 17% .43 71% .31 1.02 31% 50% 24% -16 +1 0.72 39% 1.0 .39 10% .32 76% .25
Jan
17		 North Florida A- B A+ B+ A- 33% 11% 56% C B+ C+ D+ C B C A- B- B- B+ F C- D+ 24% 14% 63% B C- A- A+ A+ B- F A+ D+
1.39 67% 67% 39% +10 +1 1.24 39% 1.1 .45 10% .28 78% .22 0.98 50% 57% 34% +1 0 1.04 19% 0.6 .11 20% .32 67% .21
Jan
22		 West Georgia A- B+ B- A+ A+ 44% 13% 43% C+ A+ F A+ F B F C F B C+ F A- D+ 40% 19% 42% F D F F F A+ F B F
1.28 67% 43% 52% +16 +1 1.37 11% 1.3 .15 12% .19 73% .13 0.96 53% 63% 28% -1 0 1.00 38% 1.5 .58 33% .40 67% .26
Jan
28		 Queens A A+ A A A+ 29% 20% 51% D A F A+ C- B+ A+ A+ A+ D+ F F F F 23% 9% 68% C+ F A+ D A C- C- B C
1.35 80% 50% 42% +15 -1 1.31 22% 1.5 .33 12% .52 82% .43 1.22 75% 60% 44% +17 0 1.36 17% 1.2 .20 15% .33 71% .24
Jan
31		 Eastern Kentucky C- C- A+ C+ C 37% 15% 47% B- C F A D- A+ B F F+ C B A+ F D 31% 4% 65% F F+ A A+ A+ B F C- F
1.19 59% 67% 36% +6 +1 1.15 21% 1.2 .26 8% .37 50% .19 1.07 50% 0% 41% +3 +2 1.12 24% 0.8 .19 20% .43 73% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 North Alabama C+ B+ F A B 39% 7% 54% B- B D B- D+ C- F B- F B A C+ C C+ 43% 12% 45% D C+ A D B+ C+ C+ A+ A-
1.22 67% 0% 41% +6 +2 1.19 29% 1.2 .35 15% .16 78% .12 0.90 43% 33% 32% -9 +1 0.88 22% 1.1 .24 20% .30 50% .15
Feb
7		 Lipscomb B+ A+ D D+ B 25% 40% 36% F C B B B+ C+ A- C+ A- C F C+ F F 22% 13% 65% A- F+ D C D+ A- F A F
1.18 92% 33% 32% +5 -3 1.06 36% 1.1 .38 17% .35 71% .25 1.07 70% 33% 40% +8 0 1.17 29% 1.0 .29 21% .38 68% .26
Feb
9		 North Alabama D D+ A+ F F 39% 9% 52% C+ F+ D- A+ C+ F A+ C- A+ B- C F C+ F+ 58% 8% 34% F F C D C- A+ F F+ F
1.07 56% 75% 25% -5 +2 0.96 28% 1.4 .41 19% .42 74% .31 0.96 55% 67% 31% -1 +3 1.05 30% 1.1 .33 28% .47 74% .35
Feb
11		 Bellarmine C D C B D- 41% 10% 49% A- D+ D B- D+ A+ A F+ B C- D+ F F F 30% 9% 61% B- F B- D C+ A+ A+ F A+
1.28 57% 40% 40% +4 +2 1.14 30% 1.2 .36 8% .40 67% .26 1.16 64% 50% 50% +18 +1 1.39 18% 1.3 .23 24% .16 88% .14
Feb
14		 West Georgia C- D F B+ D 50% 10% 40% B D+ B- D- C B- D- A+ C- B+ B D C- C- 41% 29% 31% D- D+ B+ C+ B A- C+ A+ A-
1.15 54% 20% 38% -1 +2 1.04 34% 0.8 .29 13% .28 82% .23 0.90 50% 43% 33% -2 -1 0.96 25% 1.0 .25 20% .26 50% .13
Feb
19		 Stetson A A A+ B+ A- 31% 15% 54% C- B+ A- F C C- A C+ A- D F A+ F F 20% 22% 59% B+ F B+ F F A+ A+ F A-
1.33 73% 57% 38% +11 0 1.25 40% 0.9 .37 15% .36 75% .27 1.15 78% 20% 52% +16 -1 1.30 21% 1.8 .38 24% .16 88% .14
Feb
21		 Florida Gulf Coast D- F+ F F+ F 34% 15% 51% C F D A+ B C+ D- B D C+ D+ A A+ A 40% 17% 43% F B+ B F D- F B+ A+ A
0.99 50% 25% 30% -8 0 0.87 26% 1.5 .38 15% .30 78% .23 1.04 63% 30% 23% -7 +1 0.90 26% 1.5 .38 11% .20 54% .11
Feb
25		 Austin Peay A+ A A+ A+ A+ 41% 4% 55% A A+ F A+ A A C A+ B F D- A+ F F 50% 2% 48% F F F A+ C A+ F F F
1.37 71% 50% 43% +13 +2 1.33 20% 2.0 .40 13% .31 83% .26 1.30 64% 0% 57% +18 +3 1.45 36% 0.9 .32 22% .40 86% .34
Feb
28		 Queens C- A F F D- 48% 12% 40% B+ D C- D+ D+ C+ A A+ A+ C F F B+ C- 29% 8% 63% D+ C- A A+ A+ C C+ F D-
1.18 71% 17% 25% -2 +2 1.02 31% 1.0 .31 14% .43 88% .38 1.11 73% 75% 30% +4 +1 1.12 22% 0.6 .13 16% .30 94% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 28.7% 28.7% 14.4 0.0 1.7 13.8 12.5 0.7 71.3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.7% 28.7% 0.0% 14.4 71.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 28.7% 100.0% 14.4 0.1 5.9 47.9 43.6 2.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 19.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 31.6%
Lose Out 19.9%