Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
161 Lipscomb 21.6%   15   4 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 6 -0.5      -1.7 219 +1.2 134 73.1 95 +0.9 154 0.0 1
174 Florida Gulf Coast 18.1%   4 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 6 -1.2      +1.4 133 -2.5 253 72.4 112 -3.2 214 0.0 1
180 Austin Peay 17.5%   3 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 6 -1.5      -2.8 244 +1.3 130 70.4 157 -0.3 177 0.0 1
196 Queens 13.8%   3 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 15 11 - 7 -2.3      +3.0 101 -5.3 338 70.6 156 -3.7 228 0.0 1
200 North Alabama 13.4%   3 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 12 11 - 7 -2.5      -1.3 199 -1.2 206 66.6 265 +0.8 156 0.0 1
269 Eastern Kentucky 4.8%   0 - 7 0 - 0 10 - 19 9 - 9 -5.6      -0.6 179 -5.0 336 72.3 116 -15.5 350 0.0 1
279 Central Arkansas 4.1%   3 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 17 9 - 9 -6.2      -4.8 300 -1.4 210 70.4 160 -5.4 250 0.0 1
291 Jacksonville 2.9%   3 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -7.3      -4.9 302 -2.4 248 65.4 290 -2.8 208 0.0 1
292 Bellarmine 2.9%   2 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -7.3      -0.1 163 -7.3 355 66.1 273 -5.9 261 0.0 1
318 West Georgia 0.0%   4 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 16 7 - 11 -8.9      -5.1 306 -3.8 306 69.5 185 0.0 173 0.0 1
344 North Florida 0.5%   0 - 6 0 - 0 6 - 23 5 - 13 -11.6      -3.6 262 -8.0 360 78.6 18 -17.8 357 0.0 1
347 Stetson 0.3%   2 - 8 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 13 -12.1      -6.3 335 -5.8 345 68.4 213 -11.6 322 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 3 180 Austin Peay 84 121 Kent St. 96   
Wed, Dec 3 200 North Alabama 65 100 San Francisco 63   
Wed, Dec 3 161 Lipscomb 83 271 Tennessee Tech 80   
Wed, Dec 3 174 Florida Gulf Coast 83 189 Florida International 89   
Wed, Dec 3 269 Eastern Kentucky 78 92 Illinois St. 89   
Wed, Dec 3 359 Gardner-Webb 74 196 Queens 107   
Wed, Dec 3 279 Central Arkansas 85 315 Arkansas Little Rock 47   
Sat, Dec 6 189 Florida International 88 291 Jacksonville 65   
Sat, Dec 6 271 Tennessee Tech 87 318 West Georgia 59   
Sat, Dec 6 292 Bellarmine 68 111 Murray St. 81   
Sat, Dec 6 87 South Carolina 82 347 Stetson 51   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 7 174 Florida Gulf Coast 78 122 Florida Atlantic 79 53%   
Sun, Dec 7 180 Austin Peay 74 209 UT Rio Grande Valley 76 55%   
Sun, Dec 7 279 Central Arkansas 69 300 East Texas A&M 70 56%   
Sun, Dec 7 272 Alabama A&M 66 161 Lipscomb 75 78%   
Sun, Dec 7 4 Gonzaga 102 344 North Florida 66 100%   
Wed, Dec 10 329 Eastern Illinois 73 269 Eastern Kentucky 74 55%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Lipscomb 3.1 30.3 20.6 15.0 11.3 8.3 5.6 3.8 2.5 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1
Florida Gulf Coast 3.6 23.3 18.2 15.4 12.7 10.1 7.4 5.3 3.4 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.2
Austin Peay 3.6 23.4 17.9 15.1 12.6 10.0 7.4 5.4 3.6 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.2
Queens 3.9 20.0 17.9 15.1 12.5 10.3 8.0 5.8 4.3 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.4
North Alabama 4.2 16.0 15.6 14.8 13.4 11.6 9.3 7.2 4.9 3.5 2.2 1.2 0.5
Eastern Kentucky 6.5 4.4 5.9 7.5 9.5 10.6 11.7 11.9 11.4 10.2 8.3 5.8 2.8
Central Arkansas 6.4 3.6 5.7 8.1 9.6 11.2 12.3 12.3 11.7 10.1 7.6 5.1 2.6
Jacksonville 7.2 2.3 3.8 5.4 7.1 9.0 11.4 12.8 13.0 12.2 10.3 7.7 5.0
Bellarmine 7.5 2.2 3.3 4.7 6.7 7.7 9.8 11.4 12.5 12.9 12.3 10.2 6.3
West Georgia 8.0 1.2 2.4 3.9 5.3 7.0 9.3 10.9 12.2 13.2 13.6 12.4 8.7
North Florida 9.6 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.9 4.4 6.8 9.0 12.4 16.6 20.5 23.5
Stetson 10.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 3.2 5.3 8.1 11.4 16.4 22.9 28.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Lipscomb 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 3.9 6.2 9.5 12.4 14.5 15.2 13.6 10.7 6.6 2.8 0.7
Florida Gulf Coast 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.2 5.6 8.2 11.1 13.9 15.0 14.2 11.6 7.7 4.5 1.8 0.4
Austin Peay 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.5 5.8 8.6 11.3 13.3 14.5 13.5 11.7 8.2 4.4 1.9 0.4
Queens 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.2 6.4 9.1 11.7 13.6 14.2 13.0 10.4 7.4 3.9 1.6 0.3
North Alabama 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.9 5.0 7.6 10.5 12.8 14.2 14.0 12.2 8.9 5.5 2.8 1.0 0.2
Eastern Kentucky 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 4.2 6.7 9.6 12.0 13.3 13.5 12.1 9.7 7.0 4.5 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Central Arkansas 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.6 6.0 9.4 12.6 13.4 14.2 12.6 10.2 7.2 4.3 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville 8 - 10 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.1 5.8 8.9 11.6 13.8 14.3 13.0 10.6 7.4 4.9 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
Bellarmine 7 - 11 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.4 7.5 10.0 12.8 13.9 13.0 11.6 9.1 6.8 4.1 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
West Georgia 7 - 11 0.2 1.0 2.8 5.6 9.0 11.5 13.6 13.7 12.4 11.0 7.9 5.2 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
North Florida 5 - 13 1.1 4.0 8.2 12.3 14.9 15.4 13.8 11.0 8.2 5.2 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stetson 5 - 13 1.3 4.8 10.1 14.5 16.6 16.0 13.3 10.1 6.4 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Lipscomb 30.3% 20.2 7.7 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 23.3% 14.7 6.4 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Austin Peay 23.4% 14.8 6.3 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Queens 20.0% 12.1 5.8 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Alabama 16.0% 9.3 4.8 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 4.4% 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 3.6% 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 2.3% 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bellarmine 2.2% 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
West Georgia 1.2% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
North Florida 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stetson 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Lipscomb 21.6% 21.6% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.7 3.6 7.6 7.1 2.6 78.4 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.0 6.7 4.0 81.9 0.0%
Austin Peay 17.5% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.1 5.2 6.4 3.4 82.5 0.0%
Queens 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 5.5 4.1 86.2 0.0%
North Alabama 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.9 5.0 2.7 86.6 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 4.0 95.2 0.0%
Central Arkansas 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.5 95.9 0.0%
Jacksonville 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 97.1 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 97.1 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
North Florida 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Stetson 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Lipscomb 21.6% 0.8% 21.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 18.1% 1.4% 17.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 17.5% 1.2% 17.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 13.8% 1.9% 12.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 13.4% 1.0% 12.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 4.8% 3.2% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 4.1% 1.6% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 2.9% 1.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.9% 1.3% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 93.2% 0.9 6.8 93.2
2nd Round 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0