Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -1.1 177
Results Rating +1.3 136
Consistency 0.11 16
Pace 72.2 83
Improvement -0.6 207

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 185 C- C+ C C+ C+
Defense C 177 D+ B+ C+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 93 D+ 55% 266 +0.5 160
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 138 C- 36% 228 -0.5 208
Three Pointers 38% 241 C- 33% 230 -2.1 256
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 151 D+ -2.4 262
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 238
Second Chance C- 28.1% 244 B+ 1.16 35 C+ 0.33 136
Opponents' Steals C 9.5% 191
Other Turnovers C+ 6.9% 135
Turnovers C 16.4% 155
Freethrows C 0.31 177 C+ 74% 141 C+ 0.23 151
Total Offense C -0.8 185

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 46% 222 D+ 12.3% 266
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 114 C 5.0% 186
Three Pointers A- 94% 8 F 1.9% 347
Total C+ 57% 140 D 6.9% 317


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 94 D 63% 310 +4.0 310
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 208 C 39% 211 -0.3 164
Three Pointers 38% 257 C- 34% 209 -0.9 142
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.4 243 D+ +2.3 275
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 272
Second Chance C- 31.2% 226 A+ 0.80 4 B+ 0.25 38
Turnovers from Steals B+ 12.1% 29
Other Turnovers D- 5.7% 350
Turnovers C+ 17.8% 110
Freethrows C 0.31 207 B 70% 65 C 0.22 180
Total Defense C -0.2 177

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 145 D+ 8.8% 260
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 223 D- 1.6% 337
Three Pointers B- 81% 93 D 0.2% 326
Total C+ 53% 130 D+ 4.1% 300

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.8 113 17.0 123
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 121 0.20 271
Consistency 0.14 273 0.12 132
Improvement +4.6 16 -5.2 355

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 189 177 156
Results Rating Rank 153 144 117
Conference Record 15 - 3 15 - 3 15 - 3
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25% 34% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round25% 34% 0%
Second Round0% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 33 - 7
Quad 418 - 220 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 344 @Air Force W 74 - 54 80% +10  95% 1 - 0 B +10 D -6 C- D F A+ +16 C+ B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 101 @Wyoming L 65 - 79 20% -5  2% 1 - 1 D+ -6 F -13 F C- F+ A- +8 C+ A A
 Sat, Nov 15 300 @UNC Greensboro W 69 - 63 66% +3  74% 2 - 1 C +1 F -15 F C- D A+ +15 C+ A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 74 @Mississippi L 65 - 72 13% -7  0% 2 - 2 C+ +4 D+ -3 F+ B- C+ A- +7 A+ F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 65 @Tulsa L 75 - 84 12% +2  60% 2 - 3 C+ +3 B- +4 B C- B+ C -1 F+ A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 341 Northern Illinois W 77 - 59 90% +7  79% 3 - 3 C+ +3 C+ +3 A- B C+ C+ +1 B B- F
 Wed, Dec 3 152 @Kent St. L 84 - 96 33% -3  11% 3 - 4 D -9 B- +5 A F C+ F -13 F C- C-
 Sun, Dec 7 144 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 50 - 63 31% -0  42% 3 - 5 D -9 F -23 F D- C- A+ +13 B+ F+ A+
 Fri, Dec 12 141 East Tennessee St. W 76 - 75 53% +6  98% 4 - 5 C -1 C -0 C+ F B+ C -1 D A C+
 Thu, Jan 1 339 North Florida W 102 - 83 90% +8  86% 5 - 5 1 - 0 C+ +4 B- +5 F+ A+ A C- -3 D- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 293 Jacksonville W 71 - 68 82% +2  65% 6 - 5 2 - 0 D+ -8 F+ -8 F D- B+ C+ +0 F C- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 269 @Florida Gulf Coast W 82 - 71 58% +3  67% 7 - 5 3 - 0 B- +8 B +6 D+ A+ B- B- +2 D B A
 Sat, Jan 10 320 @Stetson W 81 - 69 71% +7  92% 8 - 5 4 - 0 B- +5 C +0 F+ B- A+ B +5 B D+ C+
 Thu, Jan 15 288 Eastern Kentucky W 74 - 72 81% +1  58% 9 - 5 5 - 0 D -8 C- -1 F+ A C- D- -7 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 195 @Lipscomb L 78 - 82 42% -2  22% 9 - 6 5 - 1 C- -3 C- -1 D B- D+ C -1 D- A C-
 Thu, Jan 22 269 Florida Gulf Coast W 83 - 62 78% +12  96% 10 - 6 6 - 1 B+ +12 B +6 C B+ A B+ +7 C- B A+
 Fri, Jan 23 320 Stetson W 73 - 65 86% +0  34% 11 - 6 7 - 1 C- -5 D- -7 F A+ F+ B- +3 C+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 28 288 @Eastern Kentucky W 90 - 82 62% +10  97% 12 - 6 8 - 1 C+ +4 B- +4 B C+ F C -1 A- B+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 308 @West Georgia W 81 - 78 67% +6  89% 13 - 6 9 - 1 C- -3 C- -2 F F+ B- C -1 C- A F
 Wed, Feb 4 195 Lipscomb W 87 - 76 65% +4  60% 14 - 6 10 - 1 B- +6 B +7 A+ F B C- -2 D+ B- C
 Sat, Feb 7 342 North Alabama W 91 - 62 90% +17  90% 15 - 6 11 - 1 B+ +14 A+ +20 A+ A A- C- -3 D A C+
 Wed, Feb 11 202 @Queens W 95 - 87 43% +5  83% 16 - 6 12 - 1 B +9 A- +10 C+ A C C- -2 F A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 14 285 Bellarmine W 90 - 70 80% +15  94% 17 - 6 13 - 1 B +10 A+ +16 A- A D+ C- -3 B F F
 Thu, Feb 19 339 @North Florida W 77 - 76 78% -5  7% 18 - 6 14 - 1 D -8 F -15 F D+ D- B+ +6 A- B- C+
 Sat, Feb 21 293 @Jacksonville W 65 - 61 64% +3  67% 19 - 6 15 - 1 C -1 C- -2 F B A+ C+ +2 C+ B- F+
 Wed, Feb 25 171 Central Arkansas L 88 - 93 60% +5  84% 19 - 7 15 - 2 D -9 A +13 A+ C D- F -22 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 28 285 @Bellarmine L 97 - 111 61% -4  6% 19 - 8 15 - 3 F -18 D+ -3 F B+ C+ F -13 F F D
Totals 19 - 8 15 - 3 -1 C -1 C- D+ C+ C +0 C- C+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C- C- D+ 42% 41% 38% C+ C- C- B+ C+ C C C+ C+ C D C C- D+ 42% 20% 38% C- D+ C- A+ B+ C+ C B C
1.07 55% 36% 33% -2 0 0.98 28% 1.2 .33 16% .31 74% .23 1.09 63% 39% 34% +2 0 1.08 31% 0.8 .25 18% .31 70% .22
Nov
8		 Air Force D B- A+ D C 30% 23% 47% D+ C- C- F+ D F A+ F A+ A+ D A+ D C+ 32% 18% 50% B C+ F A+ B+ A+ F A+ B
1.03 64% 55% 32% +4 -1 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 24% .53 59% .31 0.75 64% 0% 36% -3 0 0.95 38% 0.5 .18 31% .48 33% .16
Nov
11		 Wyoming F B- F F F 46% 10% 44% B F D+ C+ C- F+ C+ B- B- A- A D- F B- 52% 12% 37% D C+ B- A+ A A D- A- D+
0.85 61% 0% 18% -13 +2 0.80 24% 1.0 .24 21% .40 71% .28 1.03 44% 50% 42% -1 +2 1.04 33% 0.7 .23 21% .38 70% .26
Nov
15		 UNC Greensboro F D- F F F 39% 22% 39% C F D+ B- C- D C F D+ A+ C- C+ A- B- 35% 22% 43% C- C+ A+ A+ A+ C+ D A- C
0.95 52% 25% 29% -8 0 0.85 27% 1.2 .32 16% .26 63% .16 0.86 59% 36% 29% -4 -1 0.94 14% 0.6 .08 16% .39 63% .25
Nov
18		 Mississippi D+ F D F+ F 29% 21% 50% C+ F+ A- D- B- C+ F A+ F A- C A A+ A+ 29% 35% 37% C A+ D- F F B+ D- B D
0.95 38% 33% 29% -11 -1 0.79 38% 0.9 .36 18% .12 86% .11 1.06 64% 29% 22% -8 -3 0.82 35% 1.3 .45 16% .37 71% .26
Nov
21		 Tulsa B- D- A- A+ B- 49% 17% 34% B B C- C C- B+ C D C C F+ B F F 35% 6% 59% C F+ B+ A+ A+ B- B F C
1.10 50% 44% 44% +2 +1 1.09 25% 1.1 .28 13% .27 69% .19 1.23 67% 33% 43% +11 +2 1.27 27% 0.8 .20 16% .28 94% .26
Nov
25		 Northern Illinois C+ A+ D A A 36% 14% 50% C A- C+ B+ B C+ A F C C+ F C A+ B 38% 21% 40% B+ B C A- B- F B- A+ A+
1.19 75% 33% 41% +11 +1 1.25 33% 1.2 .41 15% .40 59% .24 0.91 75% 36% 10% -9 0 0.85 29% 0.7 .20 17% .32 41% .13
Dec
3		 Kent St. B- D B- A+ A- 41% 9% 50% B+ A C F F C+ F D F F F D+ F F 40% 10% 50% D- F A+ F C- C- F B- F
1.14 52% 40% 46% +7 +2 1.20 30% 0.5 .16 15% .26 69% .18 1.31 68% 40% 54% +19 +1 1.44 23% 1.7 .38 18% .53 72% .38
Dec
7		 UT Rio Grande Valley F F F F F 58% 14% 28% A F F B- D- C- C- F D A+ B F A B 28% 26% 47% A B+ F D+ F+ A+ C F+ C-
0.72 41% 14% 14% -21 +2 0.64 21% 0.9 .19 17% .33 63% .21 0.91 54% 50% 27% -3 -1 0.94 34% 1.1 .38 29% .22 82% .18
Dec
12		 East Tennessee St. C D+ A+ B- C 39% 12% 49% B- C+ C+ F F B+ C- A+ B C D D C D 41% 16% 43% C- D C+ A+ A C+ A D+ A-
1.09 55% 50% 36% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.5 .16 16% .29 88% .25 1.07 65% 44% 33% +4 +1 1.11 26% 0.7 .18 17% .24 79% .19
Jan
1		 North Florida B- D A+ F F+ 39% 18% 44% C- F+ B- A+ A+ A B A A- C- B- C F D- 37% 10% 53% D D- B+ A+ A+ C+ F D F
1.31 54% 55% 26% -4 0 0.95 40% 1.6 .65 8% .32 78% .25 1.07 53% 40% 41% +3 +1 1.12 20% 0.6 .11 19% .43 81% .35
Jan
3		 Jacksonville F+ C- F F F 44% 20% 35% C- F F+ C- D- B+ C- A B- C+ F+ B F F 38% 20% 42% C F C D+ C- A+ F A+ C-
1.03 58% 18% 26% -8 0 0.87 23% 0.9 .20 12% .36 77% .28 0.99 65% 33% 42% +7 0 1.16 29% 1.1 .32 25% .38 55% .21
Jan
8		 Florida Gulf Coast B F F B+ D 35% 10% 54% B- D+ C A+ A+ B- A- D+ B+ B- C F B- F+ 24% 31% 45% B+ D C+ A- B A D- A C-
1.19 47% 20% 38% -2 +1 1.00 31% 1.7 .53 14% .42 72% .31 1.03 58% 60% 32% +5 -2 1.08 28% 0.9 .25 22% .31 65% .20
Jan
10		 Stetson C F+ A F F+ 40% 31% 29% F+ F+ F A+ B- A+ A+ F A B D B A B 30% 17% 54% C- B F+ B D+ C+ A B+ A
1.15 52% 50% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 1.9 .42 7% .49 56% .28 0.98 63% 33% 28% -5 0 0.93 32% 0.9 .29 20% .20 64% .12
Jan
15		 Eastern Kentucky C- D D- D+ F 46% 17% 38% B+ F+ A B+ A C- C- B C D- F F F F 26% 28% 47% B- F D+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A
1.18 55% 38% 33% -2 +1 1.00 42% 1.1 .47 16% .32 76% .25 1.15 91% 58% 50% +25 -2 1.49 35% 0.5 .17 27% .20 56% .11
Jan
17		 Lipscomb C- F B C+ D 33% 33% 34% F+ D D A+ B- D+ C- B+ C C D F B+ D 62% 7% 31% F D- C- A+ A C- C- F F
1.04 47% 42% 35% -2 -2 0.95 26% 1.3 .34 19% .26 75% .20 1.10 65% 50% 29% +3 +3 1.15 26% 0.5 .13 16% .24 100% .24
Jan
22		 Florida Gulf Coast B D A+ C C+ 28% 24% 48% F+ C B- A- B+ A F C- F B+ D+ C+ C C- 37% 27% 37% C- C- F A+ B A+ A A+ A+
1.24 53% 54% 35% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.3 .42 12% .25 73% .19 0.92 61% 38% 33% +1 -1 1.02 40% 0.6 .26 27% .18 44% .08
Jan
23		 Stetson D- B+ C F F+ 33% 31% 37% F F C+ A+ A+ F+ C+ C+ C+ B- F+ C+ A- C 32% 23% 45% C+ C+ C A+ A+ C- F C- F+
1.09 69% 40% 22% -2 -2 0.94 34% 1.7 .57 18% .29 75% .22 0.97 67% 36% 29% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.5 .13 18% .36 70% .25
Jan
28		 Eastern Kentucky B- B C- A+ A- 37% 29% 34% D B F A+ C+ F A+ A+ A+ C D- A+ A- B+ 25% 31% 44% B+ A- F A+ B+ F F F F
1.22 67% 42% 50% +12 -1 1.24 23% 1.6 .36 23% .67 92% .61 1.11 64% 24% 29% -6 -2 0.85 43% 0.6 .27 12% .42 89% .37
Jan
31		 West Georgia C- D A+ F F 44% 11% 44% C+ F F+ D F+ B- A+ A+ A+ C C- B C- C- 43% 31% 26% D- C- A A- A F F C+ F
1.08 55% 60% 20% -8 +2 0.89 22% 0.9 .19 13% .63 83% .53 1.04 56% 33% 33% -3 -1 0.95 21% 0.9 .18 11% .37 68% .25
Feb
4		 Lipscomb B A+ D+ A+ A+ 36% 36% 27% F+ A+ F C+ F B D+ D D C- F A+ A C- 51% 9% 40% D- D+ B- C B- C B+ F B-
1.21 85% 35% 60% +19 -2 1.36 8% 1.0 .08 15% .25 67% .16 1.06 71% 20% 27% +1 +2 1.09 22% 1.0 .22 17% .17 90% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 North Alabama A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 54% 6% 40% A- A+ D A+ A A- F F F C- B- F A+ D+ 59% 18% 24% F+ D F A+ A C+ A+ F A
1.47 63% 100% 55% +19 +3 1.46 30% 1.7 .52 11% .16 67% .11 1.00 50% 56% 25% -5 +2 0.96 45% 0.5 .21 19% .18 78% .14
Feb
11		 Queens A- A- A F B- 52% 25% 23% C C+ C A+ A C A+ A A+ C- D F F F 47% 16% 37% D F A- A+ A+ D+ F A+ F
1.29 68% 50% 27% +6 0 1.15 33% 1.5 .50 15% .51 81% .41 1.18 67% 50% 42% +10 +1 1.25 22% 0.4 .08 14% .53 62% .33
Feb
14		 Bellarmine A+ C A A+ B+ 50% 9% 41% A A- B+ A- A D+ A+ A+ A+ C- A A+ F A- 55% 8% 37% F+ B F+ F F F A F B
1.49 64% 50% 50% +14 +2 1.34 41% 1.3 .55 17% .55 86% .48 1.16 48% 25% 44% -1 +3 1.06 27% 1.4 .37 10% .22 92% .20
Feb
19		 North Florida F F F F F 63% 11% 27% A F D- B D+ D- A+ C+ A+ B+ D- D A+ A 41% 18% 41% C+ A- D+ A B- C+ F C F
0.99 49% 33% 20% -12 +3 0.84 30% 1.3 .40 15% .44 72% .32 0.97 65% 44% 15% -8 0 0.88 27% 0.9 .24 19% .51 78% .40
Feb
21		 Jacksonville C- B- F F F 57% 14% 30% B+ F B B- B A+ B F C- C+ D+ A+ A+ B+ 60% 12% 29% F C+ F+ A+ B- F+ F D+ F
1.08 64% 0% 23% -7 +2 0.93 34% 1.0 .34 7% .41 61% .25 1.01 60% 20% 17% -8 +3 0.90 35% 0.8 .26 13% .44 74% .32
Feb
25		 Central Arkansas A B- F A+ A+ 50% 2% 48% A+ A+ A- F C D- A+ A+ A+ F F F F F 41% 4% 55% F F A F F D- D F F
1.30 64% 0% 57% +18 +3 1.45 36% 0.9 .32 22% .40 86% .34 1.37 71% 50% 43% +13 +2 1.33 20% 2.0 .40 13% .31 83% .26
Feb
28		 Bellarmine D+ B+ F D F 36% 22% 41% C- F D- A+ B+ C+ A+ C A F D F F F 57% 9% 34% F+ F F+ F F D F D F
1.17 71% 23% 33% +1 0 1.03 29% 1.7 .50 15% .42 73% .31 1.34 67% 60% 45% +12 +3 1.33 26% 1.6 .41 13% .47 82% .39



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 24.5% 24.5% 14.3 0.0 2.2 12.9 9.2 0.3 75.5
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.5% 24.5% 0.0% 14.3 75.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 24.5% 100.0% 14.3 0.1 8.8 52.4 37.6 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 19.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 28.1%
Lose Out 27.5%