UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +1.1 143
Results Rating -0.6 167
Consistency 0.16 207
Pace 66.9 224
Improvement +4.2 44

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 154 C+ C- C D- C+
Defense C 145 C B C D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 240 C+ 59% 137 -0.7 205
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 260 D 34% 309 -2.0 282
Three Pointers 46% 68 B- 36% 96 +4.2 46
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 148 C+ +1.1 123
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 127
Second Chance D+ 27.2% 263 C 1.03 179 C- 0.28 249
Opponents' Steals B- 8.3% 80
Other Turnovers D- 8.8% 333
Turnovers C 17.1% 212
Freethrows F 0.23 361 B 76% 73 D- 0.17 346
Total Offense C +0.3 154

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 51% 137 C 10.6% 156
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 195 D 7.1% 305
Three Pointers B- 87% 115 D+ 1.2% 275
Total B- 61% 69 C 5.6% 194


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 207 D+ 61% 252 +0.7 206
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 154 C+ 37% 145 +0.1 198
Three Pointers 41% 182 C+ 33% 115 -0.8 146
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 142 C +0.0 182
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 173
Second Chance C- 31.8% 251 A 0.83 7 B 0.26 56
Turnovers from Steals C 9.4% 185
Other Turnovers C- 7.1% 211
Turnovers C 16.5% 192
Freethrows D 0.35 307 B- 70% 78 D+ 0.24 280
Total Defense C +0.7 145

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F+ 60% 353 D+ 9.0% 252
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 38% 336 D+ 2.8% 301
Three Pointers D- 90% 346 C 0.9% 159
Total F+ 65% 347 D+ 4.4% 279

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.0 240 17.2 169
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 283 0.18 199
Consistency 0.16 358 0.11 94
Improvement +3.9 30 +0.3 182

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 155 144 129
Results Rating Rank 185 166 132
Conference Record 14 - 8 14 - 8 14 - 8
Conference Finish 3 3 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8% 12% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.3 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round8% 12% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 21 - 6
Quad 33 - 35 - 8
Quad 412 - 617 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 47 @Baylor L 81 - 96 11% -6  38% 0 - 1 C -0 C+ +2 A- F B- C -1 F+ A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 261 @Southern Utah W 95 - 72 64% +11  92% 1 - 1 A +20 A +14 A+ C- D- B+ +5 B A- F
 Tue, Nov 11 59 @Boise St. L 65 - 85 15% -9  8% 1 - 2 D+ -8 F -10 C+ D F B +4 C+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 205 @Missouri St. L 67 - 74 52% +2  68% 1 - 3 D+ -6 C- -1 F A+ F D -6 D+ A F
 Mon, Nov 24 5 @Illinois L 73 - 87 2% -8  19% 1 - 4 B+ +11 B +6 B- B- A+ B +5 C A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 3 101 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 73 26% -8  6% 1 - 5 0 - 1 D+ -5 F+ -10 F F A B +4 B+ B+ D
 Sun, Dec 7 176 Austin Peay W 63 - 50 69% +0  48% 2 - 5 B +9 F -13 F+ A F A+ +22 A+ A+ C+
 Thu, Dec 11 179 Texas Arlington L 50 - 58 70% -0  40% 2 - 6 D- -12 F -13 D F D C -1 C C B
 Tue, Dec 16 245 @Lamar W 83 - 72 61% +12  98% 3 - 6 1 - 1 B +9 B+ +9 A+ F B- C+ +1 F+ A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 196 New Orleans L 69 - 85 72% -8  7% 3 - 7 1 - 2 F -21 F+ -10 B+ F F F -11 C- F F
 Wed, Dec 31 249 Nicholls St. L 69 - 71 80% -2  18% 3 - 8 1 - 3 D -10 F+ -10 F+ C F C -0 C D- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 188 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 59 - 63 71% -1  27% 3 - 9 1 - 4 D -9 F+ -10 F F B C+ +0 B- F B-
 Mon, Jan 5 262 Incarnate Word W 80 - 67 82% +8  96% 4 - 9 2 - 4 C+ +4 B- +4 D+ A C C+ +1 A- B+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 306 @East Texas A&M L 69 - 77 74% -9  13% 4 - 10 2 - 5 D- -14 D+ -3 B- F+ D+ F -12 F F C+
 Mon, Jan 12 277 @Northwestern St. L 63 - 64 67% +4  90% 4 - 11 2 - 6 C- -4 F+ -9 D F F B +5 C+ B B+
 Sat, Jan 17 82 McNeese St. W 79 - 76 39% +10  89% 5 - 11 3 - 6 B- +7 A +13 A+ B A D -6 B- A- D
 Mon, Jan 19 287 SE Louisiana W 68 - 65 85% +4  89% 6 - 11 4 - 6 D+ -7 D -5 C- F A- C- -2 D A D
 Sat, Jan 24 288 @Houston Christian W 68 - 51 70% +8  86% 7 - 11 5 - 6 B+ +13 C +1 A F C A+ +14 D A- A+
 Mon, Jan 26 188 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 64 - 55 50% +3  66% 8 - 11 6 - 6 B +10 C- -2 D- B- C- A+ +13 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 262 @Incarnate Word W 106 - 93 65% +7  77% 9 - 11 7 - 6 B +10 A+ +24 A+ B A+ F -14 F A A-
 Mon, Feb 2 288 Houston Christian W 74 - 57 85% +15  97% 10 - 11 8 - 6 B- +7 C+ +3 D- A+ F B+ +6 B A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 196 @New Orleans W 95 - 76 51% +16  98% 11 - 11 9 - 6 A +20 A +13 B+ A+ F+ B+ +6 B- D+ C
 Mon, Feb 9 249 @Nicholls St. W 92 - 72 61% +14  98% 12 - 11 10 - 6 A +18 A+ +17 A A+ D C+ +1 C- B- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 101 Stephen F. Austin L 57 - 66 47% -5  0% 12 - 12 10 - 7 D+ -7 F -10 D D- F B- +2 B+ A- C
 Mon, Feb 16 245 Lamar W 70 - 65 80% +1  65% 13 - 12 11 - 7 C- -3 B- +5 D D- A+ D- -7 D- B F
 Sat, Feb 21 287 @SE Louisiana W 96 - 75 70% +16  99% 14 - 12 12 - 7 A- +17 A+ +31 A+ C+ A- F -12 F+ C- F
 Mon, Feb 23 82 @McNeese St. L 68 - 75 20% -4  13% 14 - 13 12 - 8 C+ +3 C- -1 A- F C B +4 B+ C B-
 Sat, Feb 28 306 East Texas A&M W 63 - 55 88% -5  17% 15 - 13 13 - 8 C- -4 D+ -3 F+ C C- C+ +1 B A F
 Mon, Mar 2 277 Northwestern St. W 74 - 62 84% +7  92% 16 - 13 14 - 8 C+ +3 C +1 B F B+ B- +2 C- B B+
Totals 16 - 13 14 - 8 +1 C +0 B- C+ C+ C +1 B- B D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ D B- C+ 37% 30% 46% C+ C+ D+ C C- C F B D- C D+ C+ C+ C 38% 21% 41% C C C- A B C D B- D+
1.09 59% 34% 36% +1 0 1.05 27% 1.0 .28 17% .23 76% .17 1.08 61% 37% 33% 0 0 1.02 32% 0.8 .26 16% .35 70% .16
Nov
3		 Baylor C+ A+ C+ A- A 19% 37% 44% C- A- F A+ F B- F A+ D C F B- F F 20% 33% 47% B+ F+ B+ A+ A+ C- F A F
1.04 82% 41% 38% +8 -4 1.12 6% 2.5 .16 15% .17 91% .15 1.24 100% 39% 42% +15 -3 1.25 33% 0.8 .25 14% .48 66% .31
Nov
8		 Southern Utah A C F A+ A+ 47% 12% 42% A- A+ A+ F C- D- F F F B+ D- A B B- 31% 27% 42% A- B B- A+ A- F D- A C-
1.30 57% 14% 64% +16 +2 1.37 44% 0.6 .28 16% .08 60% .05 0.98 65% 27% 30% -3 -1 0.93 28% 0.8 .21 15% .31 63% .19
Nov
11		 Boise St. F A D+ B- B 33% 39% 29% F+ C+ F A- D F A+ F C- B A- A+ F C+ 42% 19% 40% C+ C+ F F F A+ F A+ F
0.86 69% 37% 36% +4 -3 1.04 12% 1.3 .15 21% .37 45% .17 1.12 50% 25% 47% +2 +1 1.07 48% 1.5 .74 26% .52 66% .34
Nov
22		 Missouri St. C- A+ F F F 37% 30% 33% B- F A A+ A+ F B- A+ A- D F C+ A- D 21% 19% 60% C D+ B A+ A F F F+ F
1.06 81% 23% 14% -6 -1 0.88 41% 1.5 .63 22% .39 84% .33 1.17 100% 33% 28% +2 -1 1.04 29% 0.8 .23 9% .45 73% .33
Nov
24		 Illinois B D+ F A+ B 28% 34% 38% C- B- C A- B- A+ A F C+ B F A- A C- 34% 11% 55% C C A+ A+ A+ B+ D- F F
1.04 50% 20% 45% -2 -3 0.93 24% 1.1 .27 6% .24 50% .12 1.24 94% 33% 28% +7 +1 1.17 32% 1.0 .32 16% .37 86% .32
Dec
3		 Stephen F. Austin F+ F+ F F F 51% 20% 29% B- F D F F A C- C+ C- B B B+ C B 26% 36% 38% A B+ A- C+ B+ D F D F
0.88 46% 27% 25% -12 +1 0.80 23% 0.6 .14 12% .26 75% .20 1.07 50% 32% 35% -4 -3 0.89 27% 1.0 .27 10% .39 71% .28
Dec
7		 Austin Peay F D- A+ F D- 28% 26% 47% F+ F+ B- A+ A F F A+ D A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 58% 14% 28% F A+ A A+ A+ C+ D+ A+ C+
0.91 54% 50% 27% -3 -1 0.94 34% 1.1 .38 29% .22 82% .18 0.72 41% 14% 14% -21 +2 0.64 21% 0.9 .19 17% .33 63% .21
Dec
11		 Texas Arlington F C- F C D- 36% 20% 43% B- D F D F D F C+ F C D- D A C- 30% 16% 53% B- C D- B C B A+ C- A
0.87 56% 11% 32% -8 0 0.86 16% 1.0 .16 19% .24 73% .17 1.00 62% 43% 26% -5 0 0.93 39% 0.8 .33 23% .25 73% .18
Dec
16		 Lamar B+ F+ C A+ A+ 35% 21% 44% C- A+ F C- F B- F C- F C+ F C- D- F 18% 34% 48% B F+ A- A+ A+ B- F C- F
1.18 50% 36% 61% +15 0 1.31 19% 1.0 .19 16% .22 69% .15 1.03 67% 41% 38% +5 -3 1.06 28% 0.4 .10 19% .37 71% .26
Dec
29		 New Orleans F+ A F A+ A- 31% 20% 49% D B+ C- F F F D F F F B+ F C- C 44% 19% 37% F+ C- C F F F B- F D
0.99 67% 20% 42% +5 -1 1.10 33% 0.5 .15 23% .32 59% .19 1.22 50% 50% 35% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.6 .56 14% .33 90% .30
Dec
31		 Nicholls St. F+ F C- B+ F+ 41% 16% 43% C F+ B- D C F F+ C F+ C C C- B- C 35% 17% 48% C+ C D D D- A+ F F+ F
0.99 45% 38% 38% -3 +1 0.98 38% 1.0 .38 27% .28 79% .22 1.02 56% 38% 32% -2 0 0.98 29% 1.1 .32 23% .45 71% .32
Jan
3		 TX A&M Corpus Christi F+ F+ A+ F F 40% 22% 38% D+ F D+ F F B C+ B+ B C+ A A F B 58% 24% 18% D+ B- F D- F B- F B F
0.94 50% 60% 12% -11 0 0.80 26% 0.7 .17 17% .42 77% .33 1.00 42% 27% 50% -8 +1 0.89 36% 1.1 .39 19% .47 63% .29
Jan
5		 Incarnate Word B- B A D- D 35% 8% 58% B- D+ A B- A C F A+ D C+ A+ B+ C- A 40% 26% 34% C A- F A+ B+ D- F C+ F+
1.23 67% 50% 30% 0 +1 1.06 42% 1.1 .48 15% .27 87% .24 1.03 40% 31% 35% -8 -1 0.84 38% 0.6 .23 12% .35 70% .25
Jan
10		 East Texas A&M D+ C- F A C+ 47% 4% 49% A- B- D F F+ D+ F+ D+ F+ F F B- F+ F 33% 13% 54% D+ F F F F C+ C B C+
1.05 57% 0% 42% +3 +3 1.14 28% 0.9 .25 18% .24 69% .17 1.17 69% 33% 38% +7 +1 1.17 36% 1.4 .50 18% .24 62% .15
Jan
12		 Northwestern St. F+ C F D- F+ 45% 8% 47% A- D F A+ F F F A+ F B D A- A C+ 35% 23% 42% D+ C+ B- B+ B B+ F D F
0.95 59% 25% 30% -3 +2 1.00 14% 1.8 .24 21% .13 100% .13 0.97 60% 30% 28% -5 -1 0.91 22% 1.0 .22 20% .43 78% .34
Jan
17		 McNeese St. A B B+ A+ A+ 25% 16% 59% D+ A+ F A+ B A D+ B C- D D F A+ C+ 35% 25% 40% B+ B- F A+ A- D F F F
1.23 64% 43% 46% +13 0 1.27 24% 1.8 .44 20% .35 78% .27 1.18 65% 50% 21% -2 -1 0.96 41% 0.6 .26 11% .42 88% .37
Jan
19		 SE Louisiana D F+ A+ D D+ 32% 18% 50% C C- D- F F A- A F+ B C- F+ A+ D D- 37% 22% 41% D+ D B- A+ A D C- C+ C
1.03 50% 63% 32% 0 0 1.02 26% 0.9 .23 15% .45 68% .31 0.99 67% 18% 35% -1 0 1.00 24% 0.6 .14 15% .32 67% .22
Jan
24		 Houston Christian C B F A+ A- 58% 4% 38% A+ A F F F C F A+ F A+ B- D+ D- D- 37% 24% 39% B- D D A+ A- A+ A A- A
1.12 68% 0% 44% +10 +4 1.29 20% 0.4 .08 18% .08 100% .08 0.84 53% 40% 38% +1 -1 1.02 32% 0.6 .18 31% .19 63% .12
Jan
26		 TX A&M Corpus Christi C- A+ C F D 29% 20% 51% D D- B C- B- C- A C A- A+ A+ A A+ A+ 41% 38% 21% A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ B+ F B F
1.01 83% 38% 19% -4 -1 0.93 34% 1.0 .34 20% .49 72% .36 0.86 38% 27% 25% -16 -2 0.67 36% 0.4 .14 20% .81 63% .51
Jan
31		 Incarnate Word A+ A A+ A+ A+ 42% 14% 44% C+ A+ F A+ B A+ D+ A+ C+ F F F F F 33% 27% 40% B- F F A+ A A- F F+ F
1.47 71% 63% 48% +18 +1 1.40 23% 1.8 .42 8% .33 82% .27 1.29 82% 50% 48% +19 -1 1.38 39% 0.5 .18 19% .38 77% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 Houston Christian C+ F F B- F+ 41% 9% 50% B- D- A+ B+ A+ F A A+ A+ B+ A+ D+ C+ B+ 42% 20% 38% D+ B C A+ A+ F B F C+
1.20 50% 25% 36% -3 +2 1.00 47% 1.3 .59 23% .38 94% .36 0.92 43% 40% 32% -7 0 0.88 29% 0.3 .10 11% .24 77% .18
Feb
7		 New Orleans A C+ F+ A A- 35% 13% 52% C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ B+ F B A+ C+ 40% 31% 29% B B- A+ F D+ C F C- F
1.27 59% 33% 40% +4 +1 1.13 47% 1.3 .61 19% .46 86% .40 1.02 68% 33% 21% -3 -1 0.94 24% 1.6 .39 19% .48 76% .36
Feb
9		 Nicholls St. A+ A+ D- B- A- 50% 7% 43% A- A A+ A+ A+ D B A- A- C+ F D- A+ D+ 31% 23% 46% A- C- B C B- D- F A+ D+
1.33 77% 33% 37% +11 +3 1.30 48% 2.0 .95 23% .38 85% .32 1.04 75% 42% 25% 0 -1 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 13% .37 55% .20
Feb
14		 Stephen F. Austin F D+ A+ F D 33% 20% 48% C- D C F D- F D- C- D- B- C F+ A+ A- 38% 23% 38% D B+ F A+ A- C F B- F
0.91 53% 56% 23% -6 0 0.89 29% 0.8 .23 21% .22 73% .16 1.05 56% 45% 22% -6 0 0.89 43% 0.6 .25 13% .42 65% .27
Feb
16		 Lamar B- D- F C F+ 46% 8% 46% A D C+ F D- A+ C+ B B- D- A F+ F F+ 38% 42% 20% B- D- D+ A+ B F F A+ B-
1.17 52% 0% 35% -5 +2 0.96 33% 0.7 .23 3% .40 74% .29 1.09 42% 48% 50% +3 -3 1.02 36% 0.7 .25 12% .30 44% .13
Feb
21		 SE Louisiana A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 26% 17% 57% C A+ F A+ C+ A- C- A+ A- F D- F A F+ 46% 21% 33% F+ F+ F A+ C- F F C+ F
1.50 83% 38% 56% +25 0 1.51 21% 1.8 .37 16% .35 95% .33 1.18 64% 50% 25% +1 0 1.04 39% 0.7 .27 9% .61 66% .40
Feb
23		 McNeese St. C- A+ A+ F+ A- 31% 13% 56% C+ A- F B F C D- F F B C A+ A+ B+ 45% 22% 33% C+ B+ C+ D+ C B- F B- F
0.99 86% 50% 28% +5 0 1.13 21% 1.2 .25 25% .33 59% .19 1.09 59% 27% 25% -6 0 0.90 33% 1.1 .35 15% .49 72% .36
Feb
28		 East Texas A&M D+ F+ C+ D- F 44% 12% 44% B- F+ D A C C- C A B- C+ B- F A+ B+ 31% 17% 52% C+ B D- A+ A F F D+ F
1.09 47% 40% 32% -6 +2 0.93 28% 1.3 .38 17% .32 80% .25 0.96 53% 50% 24% -7 0 0.88 29% 0.4 .12 7% .35 68% .24
Mar
2		 Northwestern St. C B+ F A+ B 45% 15% 40% B- B F F F B+ F D+ F B- C+ D- A+ C+ 61% 20% 18% F C- C- A+ B B+ F A+ D+
1.15 67% 25% 43% +7 +1 1.19 21% 0.7 .15 14% .18 70% .13 0.96 52% 44% 25% -5 +2 0.95 25% 0.9 .22 20% .43 59% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.0%
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 100.0% 8.1% 8.1% 13.3 0.6 4.3 3.0 0.2 91.9
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 13.3 91.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.1% 100.0% 13.3 7.9 52.7 37.3 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 49.2%
Lose Out 32.0%