Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -6.4 277
Results Rating -8.2 297
Consistency 0.13 73
Pace 63.6 313
Improvement +4.8 33

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 287 D D+ C C+ D
Defense C- 235 D D C D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 229 D- 50% 348 -4.0 319
2 Pt. Jumpers 51% 48 C 39% 148 +3.3 41
Three Pointers 34% 311 C- 33% 232 -4.0 315
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 323 D -3.4 302
1st FG Attempt D 0.93 323
Second Chance D- 24.1% 335 B- 1.11 68 D+ 0.27 274
Opponents' Steals C+ 9.2% 154
Other Turnovers C- 7.7% 249
Turnovers C 16.9% 195
Freethrows C+ 0.31 161 C+ 74% 132 C+ 0.23 137
Total Offense D+ -4.4 287

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D+ 43% 270 C- 11.7% 227
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 24% 180 B- 3.5% 74
Three Pointers D+ 80% 272 D- 1.6% 329
Total D 48% 318 C- 5.9% 218


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 122 C- 60% 245 +2.3 259
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 244 D 42% 318 +0.0 186
Three Pointers 41% 191 D 37% 294 +1.4 265
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.4 251 D +3.1 300
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 304
Second Chance D+ 32.9% 290 D 1.14 317 D 0.37 321
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.0% 141
Other Turnovers C- 7.0% 223
Turnovers C 17.0% 157
Freethrows D+ 0.33 269 C 72% 164 D+ 0.24 263
Total Defense C- -2.0 235

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 284 D+ 8.3% 284
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 128 D- 1.6% 338
Three Pointers C- 84% 198 D+ 0.4% 293
Total C- 58% 239 D 3.8% 317

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.8 321 17.2 160
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 255 0.17 170
Consistency 0.13 211 0.15 341
Improvement -3.4 327 +8.3 1

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 284 274 253
Results Rating Rank 311 308 262
Conference Record 8 - 14 8 - 14 8 - 14
Conference Finish 7 7 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 32 - 52 - 13
Quad 47 - 98 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 33 @Texas A&M L 68 - 98 2% -19  0% 0 - 1 D- -13 D -5 D+ C- D D -5 B- F B-
 Thu, Nov 6 136 @North Texas L 53 - 80 15% -8  3% 0 - 2 F -23 D- -6 C- F F F -21 F F B-
 Tue, Nov 11 342 @North Alabama L 83 - 87 OT 62% -5  4% 0 - 3 D- -14 C- -2 C F C F -11 D F C-
 Tue, Nov 18 122 @San Francisco L 64 - 84 13% -15  1% 0 - 4 D- -14 C- -1 D C D- F -15 F C D-
 Fri, Nov 21 62 @Grand Canyon L 72 - 85 5% -8  1% 0 - 5 C -1 B +7 A F B+ F+ -8 F+ D- C
 Sat, Nov 29 278 Southern L 73 - 75 62% -8  6% 0 - 6 D- -11 D -6 D C D+ D -6 F D A-
 Fri, Dec 5 82 @McNeese St. L 54 - 92 7% -24  0% 0 - 7 0 - 1 F -28 F -13 D F F+ F -16 F C- B-
 Sun, Dec 7 287 @SE Louisiana W 76 - 68 42% -3  18% 1 - 7 1 - 1 C+ +4 B +6 C- A+ F+ C- -2 C+ D- C-
 Sat, Dec 13 73 @California L 70 - 79 6% -1  38% 1 - 8 C+ +2 B- +4 A- C F+ C- -2 B- F B+
 Mon, Dec 29 245 Lamar L 61 - 76 55% -12  12% 1 - 9 1 - 2 F -23 F -12 F F+ D F -11 F C+ B+
 Wed, Dec 31 101 Stephen F. Austin L 64 - 74 22% -7  5% 1 - 10 1 - 3 D -8 D -6 D F+ A+ C- -3 D B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 196 New Orleans W 74 - 68 45% -5  16% 2 - 10 2 - 3 C +1 C -0 F A+ C C+ +2 B- C+ D
 Mon, Jan 5 249 @Nicholls St. L 72 - 74 33% -2  30% 2 - 11 2 - 4 C- -4 D+ -3 D- C A- C -0 F A- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 188 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 79 - 78 44% -7  8% 3 - 11 3 - 4 C- -4 B +6 A A- F+ F -10 F C- F
 Mon, Jan 12 143 UT Rio Grande Valley W 64 - 63 33% -4  4% 4 - 11 4 - 4 C -1 F+ -8 D- D+ D- A- +8 B- B- A-
 Sat, Jan 17 262 @Incarnate Word L 74 - 76 36% +4  80% 4 - 12 4 - 5 C- -5 C- -1 B- F+ F+ D+ -4 C F A-
 Mon, Jan 19 288 @Houston Christian L 80 - 82 42% +4  91% 4 - 13 4 - 6 D+ -6 A+ +24 B+ A+ A- F -31 F F C
 Tue, Jan 27 101 @Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 69 10% -8  0% 4 - 14 4 - 7 B- +6 D -5 F B- B+ A +11 A- C- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 196 @New Orleans L 64 - 75 24% -4  20% 4 - 15 4 - 8 D -10 F+ -10 C- F D+ C -1 C F C
 Mon, Feb 2 249 Nicholls St. L 58 - 61 56% -9  9% 4 - 16 4 - 9 D -11 F -15 F B C B +4 A F B
 Wed, Feb 4 306 East Texas A&M L 68 - 74 69% -0  34% 4 - 17 4 - 10 F+ -18 D+ -4 B- F A F -14 F F+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 306 @East Texas A&M L 48 - 52 47% -6  0% 4 - 18 4 - 11 D -10 F -26 F B F A+ +16 A+ A+ D
 Mon, Feb 9 245 @Lamar W 70 - 68 32% +3  82% 5 - 18 5 - 11 C +0 C +0 D- D+ A+ C+ +0 D B+ C
 Sat, Feb 14 287 SE Louisiana W 69 - 66 64% -2  15% 6 - 18 6 - 11 D+ -7 C -0 C- D- A D- -7 D F A+
 Mon, Feb 16 82 McNeese St. L 64 - 75 17% -11  0% 6 - 19 6 - 12 D+ -7 C- -2 C- F A- D -6 B D- F
 Sat, Feb 21 288 Houston Christian W 71 - 53 64% +10  88% 7 - 19 7 - 12 B- +8 C- -2 F C A+ A+ +11 A D+ A
 Mon, Feb 23 262 Incarnate Word W 54 - 49 59% +0  43% 8 - 19 8 - 12 C- -4 F -19 F F C+ A+ +16 A+ B- B
 Sat, Feb 28 188 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 59 - 71 23% -5  29% 8 - 20 8 - 13 D -11 D+ -4 F B+ C F+ -9 F+ C F
 Mon, Mar 2 143 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 62 - 74 16% -7  5% 8 - 21 8 - 14 D+ -8 D -6 D+ D+ F+ C- -3 F+ A+ D-
 Sun, Mar 8 249 Nicholls St. L 70 - 72 44%
Totals 8 - 22 8 - 14 -6 D+ -4 C D D C- -2 C- C+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D- C C- D 37% 51% 34% D D D- B- D+ C C+ C+ C+ C- C- D D D 41% 19% 41% D+ D D+ D D C D+ C D+
1.02 50% 39% 33% -3 -1 0.93 24% 1.1 .27 17% .31 74% .23 1.12 60% 42% 37% +3 0 1.09 33% 1.1 .37 17% .33 72% .22
Nov
3		 Texas A&M D F A- B- D+ 39% 27% 35% C- D+ C- C- C- D A- C- B+ D D+ A+ C+ B 43% 7% 50% C- B- F D F B- D+ C+ D+
0.90 37% 46% 35% -5 -1 0.90 27% 0.9 .24 21% .35 71% .25 1.30 64% 25% 34% +2 +2 1.10 44% 1.1 .46 16% .36 74% .27
Nov
6		 North Texas D- F A+ F+ B- 16% 41% 44% F C- C+ F F F A+ B A+ F F F F F 38% 14% 48% C F F F F B- F A- F+
0.90 40% 54% 29% 0 -4 0.94 33% 0.3 .10 27% .63 74% .46 1.35 69% 50% 45% +14 +1 1.31 46% 1.3 .58 19% .46 64% .29
Nov
11		 North Alabama C- B+ C+ C- B- 40% 31% 29% F C F F F C A+ A A+ F B- B+ F+ D 51% 15% 34% D- D F F F C- F C F
1.11 67% 44% 33% +5 -1 1.10 20% 0.3 .07 15% .46 83% .38 1.17 50% 29% 38% -4 +2 0.98 40% 1.5 .60 17% .60 68% .41
Nov
18		 San Francisco C- F C+ A D 35% 30% 35% D D C+ D+ C D- A+ D A+ F D- F F F 38% 3% 60% F F D+ B C D- F C F
1.03 33% 38% 40% -5 -1 0.88 29% 1.0 .29 16% .50 69% .35 1.35 67% 100% 46% +15 +2 1.38 35% 1.0 .35 13% .57 71% .41
Nov
21		 Grand Canyon B A+ A+ D+ A+ 22% 38% 40% F A F D+ F B+ A D- B+ F+ F D- C F+ 40% 17% 43% C- F+ F A- D- C F C- F
1.04 73% 53% 30% +6 -3 1.08 9% 1.0 .09 15% .41 67% .27 1.23 71% 43% 33% +5 +1 1.14 46% 0.9 .42 17% .68 77% .53
Nov
29		 Southern D F A+ A+ D 36% 22% 42% C- D C- B C D+ F F F D C+ A+ F F 56% 14% 30% F F F+ C+ D A- A A+ A+
1.06 22% 55% 48% -1 0 1.00 31% 1.3 .39 20% .27 67% .18 1.08 54% 14% 53% +3 +2 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 20% .24 54% .13
Dec
5		 McNeese St. F F D+ C D 22% 13% 65% C- D F F F F+ F C- F F F D+ F F 57% 13% 30% F F F A+ C- B- C+ C C+
0.81 40% 33% 33% -5 0 0.91 23% 0.8 .17 28% .23 73% .17 1.37 70% 43% 50% +15 +2 1.36 50% 0.7 .37 15% .28 75% .21
Dec
7		 SE Louisiana B B D A- C 36% 38% 26% F C- A A+ A+ F+ A+ B A+ C- F B- A+ C+ 35% 28% 37% C+ C+ C F D- C- F D+ F
1.15 64% 33% 40% +3 -2 1.03 41% 1.6 .67 23% .53 78% .41 1.03 80% 33% 13% -6 -1 0.88 26% 1.2 .32 17% .55 70% .38
Dec
13		 California B- B- D- A+ A+ 26% 28% 46% F A- F A+ C F+ C- A+ B+ C- B- A+ F B 38% 15% 48% F+ B- D F F B+ D- D F+
1.04 58% 31% 43% +4 -2 1.07 17% 1.6 .28 21% .28 87% .25 1.18 56% 0% 43% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.6 .50 18% .38 81% .31
Dec
29		 Lamar F F A- D- F+ 33% 37% 30% F F F C- F+ D A+ F+ A F F F D+ F 38% 28% 34% F+ F A F C+ B+ B C B-
0.92 43% 44% 31% -4 -3 0.88 20% 1.0 .20 20% .53 64% .34 1.15 79% 57% 35% +14 -1 1.28 25% 1.2 .29 20% .19 70% .13
Dec
31		 Stephen F. Austin D D- C- F D- 48% 20% 32% B- D F A+ F+ A+ A+ F A C- F+ D- A C- 46% 18% 36% F D C- A+ B+ C+ F D+ F
0.97 50% 40% 25% -8 +1 0.88 14% 1.4 .20 11% .43 64% .27 1.13 65% 44% 28% +1 +1 1.06 34% 0.8 .26 14% .35 70% .25
Jan
3		 New Orleans C F F+ D+ F 44% 20% 36% C F C A+ A+ C A+ A A+ C+ F F A+ C 23% 33% 44% A+ B- D+ B C+ D A+ F A
1.13 35% 33% 31% -13 +1 0.78 34% 1.5 .51 15% .47 81% .38 1.03 75% 47% 22% -1 -3 0.94 37% 0.9 .34 17% .24 85% .20
Jan
5		 Nicholls St. D+ C A+ F F+ 43% 14% 43% C+ D- D A C A- B- F+ C- C F D A F+ 51% 10% 39% F F C+ A+ A- D+ F A+ F
1.04 62% 57% 24% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.3 .39 17% .37 71% .26 1.07 72% 40% 26% +3 +2 1.12 25% 0.7 .17 14% .52 48% .25
Jan
10		 TX A&M Corpus Christi B C+ B+ A+ A 55% 21% 24% B- A C- A+ A- F+ B+ A A F F F B- F 40% 26% 34% B F B F C- F F B- F
1.16 61% 44% 50% +9 +1 1.21 28% 1.4 .40 24% .46 79% .37 1.15 68% 50% 31% +6 0 1.13 26% 1.1 .29 13% .48 64% .31
Jan
12		 UT Rio Grande Valley F+ C F+ F+ D- 35% 23% 42% C- D- F A- D+ D- A A A+ A- C A B+ B+ 45% 8% 47% F B- A+ F B- A- A F B
0.97 60% 30% 28% -5 -1 0.91 22% 1.0 .22 20% .43 78% .34 0.95 59% 25% 30% -3 +2 1.00 14% 1.8 .24 21% .13 100% .13
Jan
17		 Incarnate Word C- A- A C- B- 47% 19% 35% C B- F B F+ F+ A+ B A+ D+ A+ F D C- 35% 28% 37% B- C D+ F F A- F F F
1.12 70% 50% 33% +7 +1 1.19 21% 1.2 .25 20% .47 76% .36 1.15 27% 67% 38% -1 -1 0.98 33% 1.9 .63 20% .47 88% .42
Jan
19		 Houston Christian A+ C+ A+ B B+ 46% 15% 39% C+ B+ A+ A- A+ A- A+ A- A+ F C F F F 41% 13% 46% F+ F F F F C F D F
1.44 63% 67% 38% +9 +1 1.22 48% 1.3 .61 14% .51 79% .40 1.48 56% 60% 56% +17 +1 1.38 50% 1.4 .68 18% .48 73% .35
Jan
27		 Stephen F. Austin D F F+ C+ F 43% 31% 26% D- F D+ A+ B- B+ F+ D F+ A B B+ C+ B+ 30% 36% 34% A- A- A+ F C- C+ F+ A- D+
0.94 32% 33% 33% -13 -1 0.74 26% 1.4 .35 14% .21 69% .15 0.97 50% 32% 33% -5 -3 0.87 24% 1.4 .34 14% .29 61% .18
Jan
31		 New Orleans F+ F+ A+ F+ C- 40% 26% 34% D C- F F F D+ F B+ F C A- F+ D+ C+ 43% 25% 32% C- C D- F F C F C+ F
0.95 48% 57% 28% -2 -1 0.96 23% 0.8 .17 16% .16 78% .12 1.11 47% 45% 36% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.4 .55 19% .49 74% .37
Feb
2		 Nicholls St. F D F F F 41% 20% 39% D+ F D A+ B C B+ C+ B+ B A+ F B A 45% 25% 30% B- A F D F B D- F F
0.92 56% 11% 18% -16 0 0.70 29% 1.5 .44 21% .40 80% .32 0.96 35% 45% 31% -10 0 0.82 33% 1.1 .36 19% .33 76% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 East Texas A&M D+ D A+ A B+ 40% 25% 35% D- B- F A+ F A F+ F F F D+ A+ F F 43% 6% 51% F F A+ F F+ C B+ F C-
1.08 53% 58% 41% +7 0 1.15 13% 1.5 .19 13% .25 50% .13 1.17 62% 0% 44% +7 +2 1.20 15% 2.0 .31 17% .19 90% .17
Feb
7		 East Texas A&M F F F F F 37% 31% 33% F F C+ B+ B F D+ A C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 12% 46% F+ A+ D- A+ A+ D F C- F
0.72 17% 27% 25% -23 -1 0.53 34% 1.3 .43 23% .29 80% .23 0.78 41% 17% 25% -16 +1 0.73 29% 0.1 .04 15% .37 67% .25
Feb
9		 Lamar C B D- D D 34% 34% 32% F D- F A D+ A+ D D- D- C+ A D F D- 30% 39% 30% B D B- A B+ C F D+ F
1.06 65% 29% 31% -2 -2 0.94 22% 1.3 .27 12% .34 65% .22 1.03 43% 44% 43% +2 -3 1.00 31% 0.7 .23 17% .40 73% .29
Feb
14		 SE Louisiana C B- D+ B C 33% 35% 33% F C- F+ C+ D- A C A+ B+ D- D- F A+ F+ 35% 38% 28% A D F F F A+ F+ C+ D-
1.10 63% 35% 38% +2 -2 1.02 23% 1.2 .27 14% .37 85% .32 1.06 64% 53% 18% +1 -2 1.00 46% 1.2 .57 26% .39 67% .26
Feb
16		 McNeese St. C- A D- F C- 43% 33% 25% D- C- C F F A- A+ A A+ D B C+ C- C+ 27% 35% 38% A+ B D+ D- D- F C+ A+ A-
1.01 71% 31% 20% -2 -1 0.95 34% 0.6 .21 20% .54 81% .44 1.18 53% 37% 33% -2 -3 0.93 36% 1.1 .41 8% .29 59% .17
Feb
21		 Houston Christian C- D+ B- F F+ 40% 35% 25% F F F A+ C A+ B+ A- A- A+ A+ C B- A 39% 25% 36% B- A B+ F D+ A B- B- B-
1.12 58% 41% 25% -2 -2 0.94 23% 1.6 .37 11% .34 79% .27 0.84 35% 36% 31% -11 -1 0.80 24% 1.2 .30 22% .24 67% .16
Feb
23		 Incarnate Word F C F D- F 34% 36% 30% F F F F F C+ C C+ C+ A+ A A A+ A+ 40% 24% 36% C- A+ B+ C- B- B D B C-
0.90 60% 25% 31% -6 -2 0.86 21% 0.9 .18 15% .37 74% .27 0.82 44% 27% 25% -13 0 0.76 26% 1.0 .26 18% .31 67% .20
Feb
28		 TX A&M Corpus Christi D+ F F A+ F 51% 27% 22% C- F D A+ B+ C B- A A- F+ D A+ F F+ 41% 14% 45% D F+ C+ D+ C F C- B C
0.98 38% 18% 44% -12 0 0.78 24% 1.6 .38 20% .43 81% .35 1.17 60% 14% 41% +2 +1 1.08 28% 1.0 .28 8% .34 63% .22
Mar
2		 UT Rio Grande Valley D D- B+ F D- 61% 20% 18% A- D+ D- C+ D+ F+ A F C+ C- D- A F F+ 45% 15% 40% D F+ A- A+ A+ D- B+ B+ B+
0.96 52% 44% 25% -5 +2 0.95 25% 0.9 .22 20% .43 59% .25 1.15 67% 25% 43% +7 +1 1.19 21% 0.7 .15 14% .18 70% .13



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14 100.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.1 99.9
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.9%
Lose Out 66.5%