Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -6.9 280
Expected Predictive Rating -9.5 315
Pace 64.1 304
Improvement +3.8 44

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #274 D D+ C- C+ D
Defense D+ #270 D D C D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 258 50% 349 -4.5 331
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 61 41% 77 +3.4 38
Three Pointers 37% 268 33% 225 -2.7 277
1st FG Attempt 0.94 300 -3.8 300
Second Chance 24.3% 337 1.14 51 0.28 259
Turnovers 17.4% 207
Freethrows 0.31 175 73% 145 0.23 150
Total Offense -3.8 274

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 97 61% 269 -3.2 291
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 289 44% 341 +0.3 160
Three Pointers 41% 174 36% 283 -1.6 260
1st FG Attempt 1.11 317 -4.5 317
Second Chance 33.4% 297 1.13 313 0.38 319
Turnovers 17.2% 168
Freethrows 0.35 303 72% 200 0.25 301
Total Defense -3.1 270

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.0 308 +0.7 293
Shot Type Accuracy -2.8 277 +3.7 312
Possession Length 18.9 329 16.8 111
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 288 0.19 229
Improvement -3.1 #325 +6.9 #1

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 1% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 22% 11% 38%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: SE Louisiana (Home) - 59.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 32 - 43 - 12
Quad 45 - 108 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 31 @Texas A&M L 68 - 98 2% -19  0% 0 - 1 D- -12 D -5 D C- D+ D+ -5 B- F C+
 Thu, Nov 6 144 @North Texas L 53 - 80 15% -8  3% 0 - 2 F -23 D -6 C F F F -22 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 11 344 @North Alabama L 83 - 87 OT 59% -5  4% 0 - 3 D- -13 D+ -3 C F C F+ -10 D F C-
 Tue, Nov 18 107 @San Francisco L 64 - 84 10% -15  1% 0 - 4 D- -13 C- -0 D C+ D- F -15 F C+ D
 Fri, Nov 21 68 @Grand Canyon L 72 - 85 6% -8  1% 0 - 5 C- -2 B +7 A F A- D- -9 F+ F+ C+
 Sat, Nov 29 264 Southern L 73 - 75 58% -8  6% 0 - 6 D -11 D -5 D C+ D+ D -6 F D+ B+
 Fri, Dec 5 88 @McNeese St. L 54 - 92 8% -24  0% 0 - 7 0 - 1 F -29 F -15 D+ F F+ F -16 F C- C+
 Sun, Dec 7 270 @SE Louisiana W 76 - 68 36% -3  18% 1 - 7 1 - 1 B- +5 B +7 C A+ D- C- -2 C+ D- D+
 Sat, Dec 13 73 @California L 70 - 79 6% -1  38% 1 - 8 C+ +2 C+ +3 A- C+ F C -2 B- F B+
 Mon, Dec 29 196 Lamar L 61 - 76 44% -12  12% 1 - 9 1 - 2 F -20 F -13 F+ F+ D D- -9 F B B+
 Wed, Dec 31 105 Stephen F. Austin L 64 - 74 22% -7  5% 1 - 10 1 - 3 D -9 D -5 D F+ A+ D+ -4 D+ B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 225 New Orleans W 74 - 68 48% -5  16% 2 - 10 2 - 3 C -0 C- -2 F A C- C+ +2 B- C+ D
 Mon, Jan 5 266 @Nicholls St. L 72 - 74 35% -2  30% 2 - 11 2 - 4 D+ -5 D -4 F+ C+ A C -1 F+ A- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 198 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 79 - 78 45% -7  8% 3 - 11 3 - 4 C- -5 B +7 A B+ D- F -11 F C- F+
 Mon, Jan 12 149 UT Rio Grande Valley W 64 - 63 33% -4  4% 4 - 11 4 - 4 C -1 F+ -8 D- D+ D B+ +7 B- B B+
 Sat, Jan 17 255 @Incarnate Word L 74 - 76 33% +4  80% 4 - 12 4 - 5 C- -4 C +0 B F+ D- D+ -5 C F A-
 Mon, Jan 19 298 @Houston Christian L 80 - 82 42% +4  91% 4 - 13 4 - 6 D+ -7 A+ +22 B- A+ A- F -29 F F C
 Tue, Jan 27 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 69 10% -8  0% 4 - 14 4 - 7 B- +5 D -5 F B- B+ A +10 A- C- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 225 @New Orleans L 64 - 75 27% -4  20% 4 - 15 4 - 8 D- -11 F -12 C- F D+ C -0 C+ F C
 Mon, Feb 2 266 Nicholls St. L 58 - 61 58% -9  9% 4 - 16 4 - 9 D- -12 F -16 F B C+ B- +3 A F+ B
 Wed, Feb 4 300 East Texas A&M L 68 - 74 66% -0  34% 4 - 17 4 - 10 F+ -17 D+ -2 B F A F -15 F F+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 300 @East Texas A&M L 48 - 52 43% -6  0% 4 - 18 4 - 11 D -9 F -24 F B+ F A+ +15 A+ A+ D-
 Mon, Feb 9 196 @Lamar W 70 - 68 24% +3  82% 5 - 18 5 - 11 C+ +3 C -0 D- D+ A+ B- +3 D+ A C+
 Sat, Feb 14 270 SE Louisiana W 67 - 65 59%
 Mon, Feb 16 88 McNeese St. L 65 - 75 18%
 Sat, Feb 21 298 Houston Christian W 71 - 67 65%
 Mon, Feb 23 255 Incarnate Word W 72 - 70 56%
 Sat, Feb 28 198 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 64 - 71 25%
 Mon, Mar 2 149 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 66 - 76 17%
Totals 7 - 22 7 - 15 -7 D+ -4 D D+ C- D+ -3 D D C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D- B- C- D+ 36% 27% 37% D D D- B D+ C- C C+ C+ D+ D+ D- D+ D 42% 17% 41% D D D+ D D C D C D
1.03 50% 41% 33% -3 -1 0.94 24% 1.1 .28 17% .31 73% .23 1.13 61% 44% 36% +4 +1 1.11 33% 1.1 .38 17% .35 72% .22
Nov
3		 Texas A&M D F A- C+ D 39% 27% 35% C- D C- C C- D+ A- C B+ D+ D+ A+ C+ B 43% 7% 50% C- B- F D+ F C+ D+ B- C-
0.90 37% 46% 35% -5 -1 0.90 27% 0.9 .24 21% .35 71% .25 1.30 64% 25% 34% +2 +2 1.10 44% 1.1 .46 16% .36 74% .27
Nov
6		 North Texas D F A+ D- B 16% 41% 44% F C C F F F A+ B- A+ F F F F F 38% 14% 48% C+ F F F F C+ F A- F+
0.90 40% 54% 29% 0 -4 0.94 33% 0.3 .10 27% .63 74% .46 1.35 69% 50% 45% +14 +1 1.31 46% 1.3 .58 19% .46 64% .29
Nov
11		 North Alabama D+ B+ B- C- B- 40% 31% 29% F C F F F C A+ A- A+ F+ B- B+ D- D+ 51% 15% 34% D- D F F F C- F C F
1.11 67% 44% 33% +5 -1 1.10 20% 0.3 .07 15% .46 83% .38 1.17 50% 29% 38% -4 +2 0.98 40% 1.5 .60 17% .60 68% .41
Nov
18		 San Francisco C- F C+ A D+ 35% 30% 35% D- D B- C- C+ D- A+ D+ A+ F D- F F F 38% 3% 60% F F C- B C+ D F C F
1.03 33% 38% 40% -5 -1 0.88 29% 1.0 .29 16% .50 69% .35 1.35 67% 100% 46% +16 +2 1.38 35% 1.0 .35 13% .57 71% .41
Nov
21		 Grand Canyon B A+ A+ D+ A+ 22% 38% 40% F A F D+ F A- A D- B+ D- F F+ C F 40% 17% 43% C- F+ F B F+ C+ F C- F
1.04 73% 53% 30% +6 -3 1.08 9% 1.0 .09 15% .41 67% .27 1.23 71% 43% 33% +6 +1 1.14 46% 0.9 .42 17% .68 77% .53
Nov
29		 Southern D F A+ A+ D- 36% 22% 42% C- D C- A- C+ D+ F F F D B- A+ F F+ 56% 14% 30% F F D- C D+ B+ A A+ A+
1.06 22% 55% 48% -1 0 1.00 31% 1.3 .39 20% .27 67% .18 1.08 54% 14% 53% +3 +2 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 20% .24 54% .13
Dec
5		 McNeese St. F F D+ C D+ 22% 13% 65% C- D+ F F F F+ F C- F F F D+ F F 57% 13% 30% F F F A+ C- C+ B- C+ B-
0.81 40% 33% 33% -5 0 0.91 23% 0.8 .17 28% .23 73% .17 1.37 70% 43% 50% +15 +2 1.36 50% 0.7 .37 15% .28 75% .21
Dec
7		 SE Louisiana B B D+ A B- 36% 38% 26% F C A A+ A+ D- A+ B- A+ C- F C+ A+ C+ 35% 28% 37% C+ C+ C F D- D+ F C- F
1.15 64% 33% 40% +3 -2 1.03 41% 1.6 .67 23% .53 78% .41 1.03 80% 33% 13% -6 -1 0.88 26% 1.2 .32 17% .55 70% .38
Dec
13		 California C+ C+ F+ A+ A 26% 28% 46% F A- F A+ C+ F C- A+ A- C B- A+ F B 38% 15% 48% F+ B- D F F B+ D D+ D-
1.04 58% 31% 43% +4 -2 1.07 17% 1.6 .28 21% .28 87% .25 1.18 56% 0% 43% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.6 .50 18% .38 81% .31
Dec
29		 Lamar F F A- D- D- 33% 37% 30% F F+ F D+ F+ D A+ D A D- F F C- F 38% 28% 34% F+ F A+ F+ B B+ B B- B
0.92 43% 44% 31% -4 -3 0.88 20% 1.0 .20 20% .53 64% .34 1.15 79% 57% 35% +14 -1 1.28 25% 1.2 .29 20% .19 70% .13
Dec
31		 Stephen F. Austin D D C F D- 48% 20% 32% B- D F A+ F+ A+ A+ F A- D+ F+ D A C 46% 18% 36% F D+ D+ A+ B+ C+ F D F
0.97 50% 40% 25% -8 +1 0.88 14% 1.4 .20 11% .43 64% .27 1.13 65% 44% 28% +1 +1 1.06 34% 0.8 .26 14% .35 70% .25
Jan
3		 New Orleans C- F F+ D+ F 44% 20% 36% C F C- A+ A C- A+ A A+ C+ F F+ A+ C+ 23% 33% 44% A+ B- D+ B+ C+ D A+ F A
1.13 35% 33% 31% -13 +1 0.78 34% 1.5 .51 15% .47 81% .38 1.03 75% 47% 22% -1 -3 0.94 37% 0.9 .34 17% .24 85% .20
Jan
5		 Nicholls St. D C A+ F F 43% 14% 43% B- F+ D- A+ C+ A C+ F+ C- C F D A D- 51% 10% 39% F F+ C+ A+ A- D+ F A+ F
1.04 62% 57% 24% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.3 .39 17% .37 71% .26 1.07 72% 40% 26% +3 +2 1.12 25% 0.7 .17 14% .52 48% .25
Jan
10		 TX A&M Corpus Christi B C+ B+ A+ A+ 55% 21% 24% B- A C- A+ B+ D- B+ A A F F F B- F 40% 26% 34% B- F B F+ C- F+ F C+ F
1.16 61% 44% 50% +9 +1 1.21 28% 1.4 .40 24% .46 79% .37 1.15 68% 50% 31% +6 0 1.13 26% 1.1 .29 13% .48 64% .31
Jan
12		 UT Rio Grande Valley F+ C D- F+ D- 35% 23% 42% C- D- F B+ D+ D A+ A- A+ B+ C A B+ B 45% 8% 47% F B- A+ F B B+ A F B
0.97 60% 30% 28% -5 -1 0.91 22% 1.0 .22 20% .43 78% .34 0.95 59% 25% 30% -3 +2 1.00 14% 1.8 .24 21% .13 100% .13
Jan
17		 Incarnate Word C A- A C- B 47% 19% 35% C B F B- F+ D- A B- A D+ A+ F D C 35% 28% 37% B- C D+ F F A- F F F
1.12 70% 50% 33% +8 +1 1.19 21% 1.2 .25 20% .47 76% .36 1.15 27% 67% 38% -1 -1 0.98 33% 1.9 .63 20% .47 88% .42
Jan
19		 Houston Christian A+ C A+ B- B- 46% 15% 39% C+ B- A+ A A+ A- A+ A- A+ F C F F F 41% 13% 46% D- F F F F C F D F
1.44 63% 67% 38% +9 +1 1.22 48% 1.3 .61 14% .51 79% .40 1.48 56% 60% 56% +17 +1 1.38 50% 1.4 .68 18% .48 73% .35
Jan
27		 Stephen F. Austin D F D- C F 43% 31% 26% D F D+ A+ B- B+ F D F A B A- C+ A- 30% 36% 34% A- A- A F C- C+ F+ B+ D+
0.94 32% 33% 33% -13 -1 0.74 26% 1.4 .35 14% .21 69% .15 0.97 50% 32% 33% -5 -3 0.87 24% 1.4 .34 14% .29 61% .18
Jan
31		 New Orleans F D- A+ F+ C- 40% 26% 34% D C- F F F D+ F B F C A- D- C- C+ 43% 25% 32% C- C+ D- F F C F C+ F
0.95 48% 57% 28% -2 -1 0.96 23% 0.8 .17 16% .16 78% .12 1.11 47% 45% 36% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.4 .55 19% .49 74% .37
Feb
2		 Nicholls St. F D F F F 41% 20% 39% C- F D- A+ B C+ B B- B+ B- A+ F B A 45% 25% 30% C+ A F D+ F+ B D F F
0.92 56% 11% 18% -16 0 0.70 29% 1.5 .44 21% .40 80% .32 0.96 35% 45% 31% -10 0 0.82 33% 1.1 .36 19% .33 76% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 East Texas A&M D+ D A+ A B+ 40% 25% 35% D- B F A+ F A F+ F F F D+ A+ F F 43% 6% 51% F F A F F+ C- B+ F C-
1.08 53% 58% 41% +7 0 1.15 13% 1.5 .19 13% .25 50% .13 1.17 62% 0% 44% +7 +2 1.20 15% 2.0 .31 17% .19 90% .17
Feb
7		 East Texas A&M F F F F F 37% 31% 33% F F C+ A- B+ F D+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 12% 46% D- A+ D- A+ A+ D- F C+ F
0.72 17% 27% 25% -23 -1 0.53 34% 1.3 .43 23% .29 80% .23 0.78 41% 17% 25% -16 +1 0.73 29% 0.1 .04 15% .37 67% .25
Feb
9		 Lamar C B D- D D 34% 34% 32% F+ D- F+ A- D+ A+ D D D B- A D F D 30% 39% 30% B- D+ B- A+ A C+ F C- F
1.06 65% 29% 31% -2 -2 0.94 22% 1.3 .27 12% .34 65% .22 1.03 43% 44% 43% +2 -3 1.00 31% 0.7 .23 17% .40 73% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.3 5th
6th 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 4.5 1.4 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 2.1 15.0 7.8 0.4 25.3 8th
9th 0.2 11.9 11.0 0.6 23.7 9th
10th 4.0 14.5 1.7 20.2 10th
11th 0.7 9.3 4.1 0.0 14.1 11th
12th 3.3 4.4 0.2 7.9 12th
Total 4.0 17.8 32.8 29.0 13.2 2.9 0.4 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11 0.4% 0.4
10-12 2.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 2.9
9-13 13.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.1
8-14 29.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 28.9
7-15 32.8% 32.8
6-16 17.8% 17.8
5-17 4.0% 4.0
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.0%