Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#171
Expected Predictive Rating+3.2#132
Pace62.8#339
Improvement+3.7#12

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#121
First Shot+3.5#84
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#279
Layup/Dunks+1.5#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#51
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#209
Freethrows-0.1#189
Improvement+1.8#46

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#267
First Shot-3.1#283
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#174
Layups/Dunks-6.0#344
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#311
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#12
Freethrows-1.6#281
Improvement+1.9#36
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.2% 11.4% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 67.2% 77.6% 53.8%
.500 or above in Conference 81.6% 89.3% 71.6%
Conference Champion 11.1% 15.6% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.5% 2.5%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round9.2% 11.4% 6.4%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Away) - 56.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 44 - 9
Quad 412 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 74 @Colorado St. L 64-98 14%     0 - 1 -23.4 -3.4 -22.2
  Sun, Nov 16 24 @Indiana L 61-69 5%     0 - 2 +9.6 +2.4 +6.4
  Thu, Nov 20 317 Southern Indiana W 87-81 76%     1 - 2 -2.6 +8.0 -10.8
  Sat, Nov 22 93 High Point L 80-91 27%     1 - 3 -5.7 +11.8 -18.2
  Mon, Dec 1 78 McNeese St. W 71-67 30%     2 - 3 1 - 0 +8.3 +5.7 +2.9
  Sat, Dec 6 265 @Nicholls St. W 72-70 56%    
  Mon, Dec 8 216 @New Orleans L 73-74 48%    
  Mon, Dec 15 48 @TCU L 64-79 8%    
  Sat, Dec 20 263 Northern Arizona W 75-67 75%    
  Tue, Dec 30 248 SE Louisiana W 72-65 73%    
  Sat, Jan 3 282 Houston Christian W 74-65 78%    
  Mon, Jan 5 213 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 74-75 47%    
  Sat, Jan 10 195 @Lamar L 66-68 44%    
  Mon, Jan 12 144 @Stephen F. Austin L 67-72 32%    
  Sat, Jan 17 302 Northwestern St. W 75-65 81%    
  Mon, Jan 19 300 East Texas A&M W 74-64 81%    
  Sat, Jan 24 237 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-67 71%    
  Mon, Jan 26 282 @Houston Christian W 71-68 59%    
  Sat, Jan 31 213 UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-72 67%    
  Mon, Feb 2 237 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 70-69 52%    
  Sat, Feb 7 78 @McNeese St. L 64-75 16%    
  Mon, Feb 9 248 @SE Louisiana W 69-68 52%    
  Sat, Feb 14 265 Nicholls St. W 75-67 75%    
  Mon, Feb 16 216 New Orleans W 76-71 68%    
  Sat, Feb 21 300 @East Texas A&M W 71-67 63%    
  Mon, Feb 23 302 @Northwestern St. W 72-68 63%    
  Sat, Feb 28 195 Lamar W 69-65 65%    
  Mon, Mar 2 144 Stephen F. Austin W 70-69 53%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 13 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.2 2.9 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 11.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.1 5.7 4.4 2.2 0.5 0.1 19.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.3 5.9 5.0 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 18.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.8 3.6 1.2 0.1 14.4 4th
5th 0.5 2.5 4.4 2.8 0.7 0.1 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 2.8 1.5 0.4 6.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 3.1 4.9 6.7 8.1 10.5 12.7 12.4 10.8 9.7 7.3 5.2 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
21-1 100.0% 0.5    0.4 0.0
20-2 96.0% 1.4    1.1 0.2
19-3 80.9% 2.3    1.7 0.6 0.0
18-4 56.2% 2.9    1.6 1.2 0.1 0.0
17-5 30.6% 2.2    1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0
16-6 12.7% 1.2    0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0
15-7 3.8% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 11.1% 11.1 6.5 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.1% 52.0% 52.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21-1 0.5% 41.6% 41.6% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
20-2 1.4% 37.7% 37.7% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.9
19-3 2.8% 27.7% 27.7% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.1
18-4 5.2% 27.3% 27.3% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 3.8
17-5 7.3% 21.5% 21.5% 13.5 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 5.7
16-6 9.7% 15.8% 15.8% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 8.2
15-7 10.8% 11.7% 11.7% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 9.5
14-8 12.4% 7.5% 7.5% 14.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 11.5
13-9 12.7% 4.4% 4.4% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 12.1
12-10 10.5% 2.4% 2.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 10.3
11-11 8.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.0
10-12 6.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 6.7
9-13 4.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.9
8-14 3.1% 3.1
7-15 1.8% 1.8
6-16 1.1% 1.1
5-17 0.5% 0.5
4-18 0.2% 0.2
3-19 0.0% 0.0
2-20 0.0% 0.0
1-21 0.0% 0.0
0-22
Total 100% 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.6 3.4 1.9 0.3 90.8 0.0%