Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.4 #96
Expected Predictive Rating +5.2 #94
Pace 59.8 #363
Improvement -3.8 #332

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #48 A+ B- D+ B B-
Defense #219 C C- D+ B B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #239 1.28 #61 +1.1 #137
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #306 0.71 #239 -2.6 #306
Three Pointers 49% #34 1.30 #1 +11.1 #2
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #4 +9.6 #4
Freethrows 19.0 #115 77% #26 14.7 #77
Second Chance 32.9% #117 1.12 #79 0.37 #80
Turnovers 17.8% #266
Total Offense +6.9 #48

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #321 1.22 #259 +2.5 #98
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #155 0.80 #261 -0.7 #235
Three Pointers 46% #46 0.97 #112 -1.6 #256
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #175 +0.2 #174
Freethrows 16.1 #94 68% #24 10.9 #62
Second Chance 27.7% #82 1.21 #346 0.34 #230
Turnovers 15.1% #260
Total Defense -1.4 #219

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #101 -0.9% #92
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 17.3% #6 0.6% #194
Possession Length 19.2 #339 18.3 #317
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #133 0.13 #51
Improvement -4.2 #352 +0.4 #160

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 4.4% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.3 11.2 11.5
.500 or above 90.7% 97.6% 87.2%
.500 or above in Conference 49.5% 70.2% 39.1%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round2.8% 4.2% 2.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Home) - 33.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 4
Quad 24 - 65 - 10
Quad 35 - 310 - 12
Quad 49 - 118 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 223 Incarnate Word W 98 - 64 87% +18  1 - 0 +27 +28 A+ A+ B- +1 B- A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 261 Nebraska Omaha W 97 - 74 90% +8  2 - 0 +14 +26 A+ A+ F -10 D C+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 281 Cal Poly W 93 - 79 91% +9  3 - 0 +4 +9 A C- C -6 D- A F
 Sun, Nov 16 268 @Loyola Chicago W 80 - 67 79% +12  4 - 0 +10 +18 A A+ D- -5 F B B+
 Fri, Nov 21 280 Denver L 81 - 83 91% -2  4 - 1 -12 +11 B- A+ F -23 F C+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 58 Virginia Tech L 64 - 66 34% -3  4 - 2 +8 +4 C- A C+ +4 C- A+ D+
 Thu, Nov 27 103 Wichita St. W 76 - 70 53% +10  5 - 2 +11 +20 A+ F D+ -8 A+ F C
 Fri, Nov 28 74 South Florida W 83 - 68 41% +8  6 - 2 +23 +15 A+ C F +8 A+ A- D-
 Sat, Dec 6 78 Colorado W 91 - 86 53% +4  7 - 2 +10 +23 A+ D- C -13 F B F
 Tue, Dec 9 221 Dartmouth W 76 - 55 87% +9  8 - 2 +14 +8 A+ F F +9 B+ B+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 39 @Utah St. L 58 - 100 16% -24  8 - 3 0 - 1 -26 -3 D- C F -27 F F C
 Tue, Dec 30 80 Nevada L 62 - 75 54% -4  8 - 4 0 - 2 -9 -4 D- A- C+ -6 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 79 @Grand Canyon W 70 - 60 31% +10  9 - 4 1 - 2 +20 +14 A C F +8 A+ D+ C
 Tue, Jan 6 51 New Mexico L 70 - 80 41% -7  9 - 5 1 - 3 -2 +7 B+ A+ D+ -10 F F C
 Fri, Jan 9 114 UNLV W 70 - 62 69% +0  10 - 5 2 - 3 +8 +4 C A+ F +6 A+ D+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 143 @Fresno St. L 69 - 79 56% -7  10 - 6 2 - 4 -6 +9 A F B- -17 C F F
 Fri, Jan 16 66 @Boise St. L 73 - 79 28% -6  10 - 7 2 - 5 +5 +16 A+ F F -11 D F B-
 Tue, Jan 20 340 Air Force W 81 - 52 96% +17  11 - 7 3 - 5 +15 +10 A+ D A+ +6 A+ A+ B-
 Fri, Jan 23 39 Utah St. L 72 - 76 34%
 Wed, Jan 28 46 @San Diego St. L 67 - 76 20%
 Sat, Jan 31 108 @Wyoming L 72 - 74 43%
 Sat, Feb 7 238 San Jose St. W 77 - 64 88%
 Tue, Feb 10 340 @Air Force W 74 - 60 90%
 Sat, Feb 14 108 Wyoming W 75 - 71 65%
 Wed, Feb 18 114 @UNLV L 75 - 76 46%
 Sat, Feb 21 46 San Diego St. L 70 - 73 40%
 Tue, Feb 24 143 Fresno St. W 75 - 68 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 238 @San Jose St. W 74 - 67 73%
 Wed, Mar 4 51 @New Mexico L 70 - 78 22%
 Sat, Mar 7 66 Boise St. W 71 - 70 50%
Totals 17 - 13 9 - 11 +5 +7 A+ B- D+ -1 C C- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.4 1.2 0.3 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.5 0.1 4.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.9 4.0 0.4 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 6.3 8.2 1.6 0.0 17.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 6.9 10.1 2.9 0.1 20.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 6.6 10.2 3.9 0.2 21.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.3 7.2 2.7 0.2 15.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.6 3.6 1.4 0.1 0.0 8.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.4 8.9 16.1 21.0 21.1 15.7 8.5 3.4 0.9 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 64.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 15.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.9% 19.3% 9.9% 9.4% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 10.4%
13-7 3.4% 12.7% 9.9% 2.8% 10.9 0.1 0.4 0.0 3.0 3.1%
12-8 8.5% 6.4% 6.3% 0.1% 11.1 0.0 0.5 0.1 7.9 0.1%
11-9 15.7% 4.6% 4.5% 0.1% 11.3 0.5 0.2 15.0 0.1%
10-10 21.1% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 11.4 0.3 0.2 20.5 0.0%
9-11 21.0% 1.3% 1.3% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 20.7
8-12 16.1% 1.0% 1.0% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 15.9
7-13 8.9% 0.5% 0.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8
6-14 3.4% 1.0% 1.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4
5-15 0.9% 0.9
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.0% 2.8% 0.2% 11.3 97.0 0.2%